O desenvolvimento da análise financeira nos últimos anos

A Análise Financeira dos Índices tem sido usada largamente, desde o fim do século passado na avaliação das demonstrações financeiras; no entanto, encontrou-se desacreditada por volta dos anos 60. Assim, por essa época, Beaver; baseando-se na literatura existente, testa empiricamente muitas crenças tidas como verdadeiras e chega a resultados diferentes. Para isso, utilizou-se de metodologia estatística univariada, isto é, analisou cada índice isoladamente. Altman refuta a metodologia usada por Beaver e cria um modelo utilizando se da estatística multivariada, isto é, vários Índices são estudados, estabelecendo um score limite. Outros autores, baseando-se nestes dois estudos, ora criticando, ora comparando, montam outros modelos. Assim temos: Deakin, Blum, Libby, Kennedy, Kanitz, Zappa, Collongues, Conan, Holder, C.E.S.A. e outros que não foram mencionados neste trabalho. Este estudo mostrou o trabalho de cada autor individualmente e, num segundo momento, apresentou críticas e comparações sofridas por esses modelos, procurando evidenciar que essas críticas e comparações serviram para estimular o desenvolvimento da Análise Financeira, a tal ponto que pode-se citar Altman que, devido a críticas e também ao seu interesse em atualizar os dados, reformula o seu modelo original (1968), criando o modelo Zeta (1977). A segunda preocupação deste trabalho foi evidenciar alguns pontos que puderam ser colhidos do material disponível. Assim, procurou-se responder quais os Índices que mais foram usados pelos modelos e, como conclusão, chegou-se a evidência de que não existem alguns poucos índices que melhor discriminem uma empresa falida e não falida. Outra indagação foi, se esses modelos serviriam para todos os tipos e tamanhos de empresas, e concluiu-se que servem, desde que o analista os adapte às suas necessidades peculiares. E, por fim, procurou-se verificar a que finalidade esses modelos podiam corresponder. E, assim, apontou-se a análise de crédito comercial, para investimento, para decisões internas, para compra e venda de ações etc. Conclui-se, pois, que os vários modelos desenvolvidos nestes últimos anos, realmente trouxeram progresso à Análise Financeira, mas que esses resultados devem ser cuidadosa mente adaptados às diversas realidades e mais, dado ao desenvolvimento de outras ciências, podem somar-se esforços com intuito de alcançar um maior desenvolvimento.

Análise de proposta de financiamento a longo prazo de expansão industrial

O trabalho desenvolve um esquema teórico de abordagem do problema de financiamento a longo prazo, que tenha condições de lidar quantitativamente com o aspecto risco. O conceito de risco financeiro, bastante utilizado na moderna Teoria das Finanças, é aqui estendido para o estudo e a determinação da probabilidade de não se poder fazer frente aos compromissos financeiros decorrentes do empréstimo, na data em que são devidos.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (e.g. prices and dividends) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PVM) linking them. The work on cointegration,namelyon long-run co-movements, has been so prevalent that it is often over-looked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. This amounts to investigate whether short-run co-movememts steming from common cyclical feature restrictions are also present in such a system. In this paper we test for the presence of such co-movement on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. We focuss on the potential improvement in forecasting accuracies when imposing those two types of restrictions coming from economic theory.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

Using a sequence of nested multivariate models that are VAR-based, we discuss different layers of restrictions imposed by present-value models (PVM hereafter) on the VAR in levels for series that are subject to present-value restrictions. Our focus is novel - we are interested in the short-run restrictions entailed by PVMs (Vahid and Engle, 1993, 1997) and their implications for forecasting. Using a well-known database, kept by Robert Shiller, we implement a forecasting competition that imposes different layers of PVM restrictions. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to the unrestricted VAR. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produces forecast winners 70% of the time for the target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Base de financiamento da revidência social: alternativas e perspectivas

Seleção de trabalhos apresentados no Workshop realizado na cidade de Brasília-DF em 20 de março de 2003

De touch: extending service channels in an airport through touch technologies

This project aimed to create a communication and interaction channel between Madeira Airport and its passengers. We used the pre-existent touch enabled screens at the terminal since their potential was not being utilised to their full capacity. To achieve our goal, we have followed an agile strategy to create a testable prototype and take advantages of its results. The developed prototype is based on a plugin architecture turning it into a maintainable and highly customisable system. The collected usage data suggests that we have achieved the initially defined goals. There is no doubt that this new interaction channel is an improvement regarding the provided services and, supported by the usage data, there is an opportunity to explore additional developments to the channel.

Palinotaxonomia de Besleria L. e Napeanthus Gardn. (Beslerieae/Napeantheae - Gesneriaceae) com ênfase nas espécies ocorrentes no Estado de São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O discurso ideológico no método reflets-Brésil

Cette étude vise à identifier, décrire et comprendre, le discours idéologique de la méthode Reflets-Brésil. L'étude, a été subventionnée en partie par une analyze des recommandations brésiliennes, et européennes, sur l'enseignement des langues étrangères, et pour la reflexion sur le matériel d'enseignement des langues étrangères, proposées respectivement par Alain Choppin et Christian Puren, et d'autre part, trouvé appui théorique, de la proposition de John B. Thompson en ce qui concerne les concepts de la culture et l'idéologie. La recherche a été de nature qualitative, sur la base des idées de Norman Fairclough sur l'analyse critique du discours, et a été organisé autour de l'hypothèse que la méthode Reflets-Brésil, tandis que un produit de la industrie europeane du livre, adaptée pour le public brésilien, traduit le discours idéologique, malgré les recommandations brésilien en matière d'éducation et le développement des manuels scolaires. Dans l'étude, il a été conclu par la véracité de l'hypothèse. La méthode Méthode Reflets-Brésil, non seulement peut être comprise comme un véhicule idéologique, mais ne prévoit pas dans sa proposition pour l'enseignement des langues étrangères, un espace de réflexion qui peuvent conduire à une reconstruction de discours critique et / ou pratiques liées à l'enseignement du français comme langue étrangère

O livro didático de história: um caleidoscópio de escolhas e usos no cotidiano escolar (Ceará, 2007 2009)

In the first decade of the XXI century, it is possible to assert that school textbook is part of the material culture of most public Brazilian schools by means of National School Textbook Program (PNLD). This research aimed at identifying and analyzing textbooks choice in Ceara, relating it to the uses of such tool within school daily life. The setting for the study was four public schools, two of them placed in Fortaleza, and the other in Quixada. It evaluated the uses of textbooks in the 6th grade. As part of methodology, public managers were interviewed, teachers answered surveys, and a direct observation during History classes in 2008 school year was carried out. The observation was over after round chats with students in the class, in which each one designed draws and sentences concerning to the textbook. Furthermore, the study was based on MEC official documents that regulate the textbook choice process with National textbook Program announcement (PNDL/2008) and PNDL/2008 Textbook Guide, in addition to History textbooks schools used. Roger Chartier‟s concept of appropriation was an analysis category, as well as Michael de Certeau s strategy and tatics‟, and Dominique Julia‟s concept of school culture . The study recognizes textbook in the perspective of Alain Choppin and Egil Borre Johnsen, since it is a complex cultural object. For this reason, the study designs an analogy with a kaleidoscope that sends different images depending on who uses it, within a set of colorful lines, since textbook comprehends nowadays different sources and languages, as it offers countless possibilities of use in teaching History. The study concludes that only the main text of each chapter is really worked in daily class practice. Therefore, although theoretical and graphic changes in textbook production, the textbook is underused, which is central to a later rethought of teachers instruction, since, depending on the conception of teaching and learning, textbook potentialities will be used to improve the development of knowledge in History.

Objetiva(ação) da medida e contagem do tempo em práticas socioculturais e educativas

This thesis describes and analyzes various processes established and practiced by both groups about the socio-cultural objective (action) the measurement and timing, mobilized some socio-historical practices as the use of the gnômon of the sundial and reading and interpretation of movements celestial constellations in cultural contexts such as indigenous communities and fishermen in the state of Pará, Brazil. The Purpose of the study was to describe and analyze the mobilization of such practices in the socio-historical development of matrices for teaching concepts and skills related to geometric angles, similar triangles, symmetry and proportionality in the training of mathematics teachers. The record of the entire history of investigation into the socio-historical practice, the formative action was based on epistemological assumptions of education ethnomathematics proposed by Vergani (2000, 2007) and Ubiratan D'Ambrosio (1986, 1993, 1996, 2001, 2004) and Alain Bishop conceptions about mathematics enculturation. At the end of the study I present my views on the practices of contributions called socio-cultural and historical for school mathematics, to give meaning to the concept formation and teaching of students, especially the implications of Education Ethnomatematics proposed by Vergani (2000) for training of future teachers of mathematics

Da resistência à ação política, a educação pelo consenso: a ação educativa de Pe. Sabino em Mãe Luiza Natal/RN

This study focuses on a methodology of unchained action by Father Sabino Gentili in Mãe Luiza, suburb of Natal-RN, which has enhanced social participation in what Castells calls project identity. The perception of collective actions, focused on the development of subjects from the perspective of Alain Touraine occurs continuously in a popular neighborhood, whose history marked by conflict mainly related to the resistance in the remaining living space. It is argued that there was an appropriation of resistance identity, which was already present in the community of Mãe Luiza, in order to channel it to create a project identity, through an implicit methodology that has been identified as Pedagogy of Consensus, based on Paulo Freire s concepts of dialogue and participation. Therefore, by means of qualitative research, using tools such as semi-structured interviews and documented sources, we tried to describe the intent of the action of a social actor and the political and educational strategies that motivate the collective action aiming a social change, observing the elements present in this action that allowed the continuity of organizational and participating processes through the dynamics of Mãe Luiza s neighborhood

Cellulose-Based Bio- and Nanocomposites: A Review

Cellulose macro- and nanofibers have gained increasing attention due to the high strength and stiffness, biodegradability and renewability, and their production and application in development of composites. Application of cellulose nanofibers for the development of composites is a relatively new research area. Cellulose macro- and nanofibers can be used as reinforcement in composite materials because of enhanced mechanical, thermal, and biodegradation properties of composites. Cellulose fibers are hydrophilic in nature, so it becomes necessary to increase their surface roughness for the development of composites with enhanced properties. In the present paper, we have reviewed the surface modification of cellulose fibers by various methods. Processing methods, properties, and various applications of nanocellulose and cellulosic composites are also discussed in this paper.

Estudos dos aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos da água e do sedimento no baixo curso do Rio Pitimbu (RN)

Urban growth of metropolitan areas has produced impacts of considerable importance on environment and water resources. Such impacts are in general associated with human activities, such as basin area uncontrolled development. In this context, Pitimbu river watershed, located at Natal metropolitan area, has been affected by uncontrolled development caused by urban expansion. Indeed, such effects have been reflected on water quantity and quality, which may produce social consequences. Pitimbu river is an important water supplier for human consumption, actually supplying a 2600 m3/h water discharge. This study aims to analyze the qualitative and quantitative aspects of water and sediment on Pitimbu river lowland portion. For this purpose, physical-chemical water properties were analyzed, and sediment macro invertebrates benthonic were monitored in two cross sections in a period between November 8th, 2007 and October 3rd, 2008. Monitoring methodology consisted of water and sediment sampling for laboratory analysis. Water quality analysis included Dissolved Oxygen, Oxygen Biochemical Demand, Nitrate, pH and Alkalinity, Suspended and Total Solids. The analysis of heavy metals in the sediment included Cadmium, Cobalt, Copper, Chrome, Silver and Nickel. Dry season water discharge data were measured and used to adjust recession function parameters, whose values reveal quick recession and strong river-aquifer unconfined interaction. Water quality analysis revealed the absence of degradation by organic composites. However, DO and BOD levels indicate that more consistent results could be provided if sampling time interval were reduced. Biomonitoring showed signs of aquatic ecosystem degradation by the absence of sensitive and abundance of resistant benthic organisms. Obtained results demonstrate the urgent need of effective management measures to provide environmental protection. The increase of environmental degradation will certainly make impracticable the use of water for human consumption