Bayesian classification with Gaussian processes

We consider the problem of assigning an input vector bfx to one of m classes by predicting P(c|bfx) for c = 1, ldots, m. For a two-class problem, the probability of class 1 given bfx is estimated by s(y(bfx)), where s(y) = 1/(1 + e^-y). A Gaussian process prior is placed on y(bfx), and is combined with the training data to obtain predictions for new bfx points. We provide a Bayesian treatment, integrating over uncertainty in y and in the parameters that control the Gaussian process prior; the necessary integration over y is carried out using Laplace's approximation. The method is generalized to multi-class problems (m >2) using the softmax function. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method on a number of datasets.

Neural network regression with input uncertainty

It is generally assumed when using Bayesian inference methods for neural networks that the input data contains no noise or corruption. For real-world (errors in variable) problems this is clearly an unsafe assumption. This paper presents a Bayesian neural network framework which allows for input noise given that some model of the noise process exists. In the limit where this noise process is small and symmetric it is shown, using the Laplace approximation, that there is an additional term to the usual Bayesian error bar which depends on the variance of the input noise process. Further, by treating the true (noiseless) input as a hidden variable and sampling this jointly with the network's weights, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, it is demonstrated that it is possible to infer the unbiassed regression over the noiseless input.

Typical performance of low-density parity-check codes over general symmetric channels

Typical performance of low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes over a general binary-input output-symmetric memoryless channel is investigated using methods of statistical mechanics. The binary-input additive-white-Gaussian-noise channel and the binary-input Laplace channel are considered as specific channel noise models.

Bayesian classification with Gaussian processes

We consider the problem of assigning an input vector to one of m classes by predicting P(c|x) for c=1,...,m. For a two-class problem, the probability of class one given x is estimated by s(y(x)), where s(y)=1/(1+e-y). A Gaussian process prior is placed on y(x), and is combined with the training data to obtain predictions for new x points. We provide a Bayesian treatment, integrating over uncertainty in y and in the parameters that control the Gaussian process prior the necessary integration over y is carried out using Laplace's approximation. The method is generalized to multiclass problems (m>2) using the softmax function. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method on a number of datasets.

Mathematical modelling and optimal multivariable control of chemical processes

This work reports the developnent of a mathenatical model and distributed, multi variable computer-control for a pilot plant double-effect climbing-film evaporator. A distributed-parameter model of the plant has been developed and the time-domain model transformed into the Laplace domain. The model has been further transformed into an integral domain conforming to an algebraic ring of polynomials, to eliminate the transcendental terms which arise in the Laplace domain due to the distributed nature of the plant model. This has made possible the application of linear control theories to a set of linear-partial differential equations. The models obtained have well tracked the experimental results of the plant. A distributed-computer network has been interfaced with the plant to implement digital controllers in a hierarchical structure. A modern rnultivariable Wiener-Hopf controller has been applled to the plant model. The application has revealed a limitation condition that the plant matrix should be positive-definite along the infinite frequency axis. A new multi variable control theory has emerged fram this study, which avoids the above limitation. The controller has the structure of the modern Wiener-Hopf controller, but with a unique feature enabling a designer to specify the closed-loop poles in advance and to shape the sensitivity matrix as required. In this way, the method treats directly the interaction problems found in the chemical processes with good tracking and regulation performances. Though the ability of the analytical design methods to determine once and for all whether a given set of specifications can be met is one of its chief advantages over the conventional trial-and-error design procedures. However, one disadvantage that offsets to some degree the enormous advantages is the relatively complicated algebra that must be employed in working out all but the simplest problem. Mathematical algorithms and computer software have been developed to treat some of the mathematical operations defined over the integral domain, such as matrix fraction description, spectral factorization, the Bezout identity, and the general manipulation of polynomial matrices. Hence, the design problems of Wiener-Hopf type of controllers and other similar algebraic design methods can be easily solved.

Pragmatic approach to the development of robust real-time protocols

This research is concerned with the development of distributed real-time systems, in which software is used for the control of concurrent physical processes. These distributed control systems are required to periodically coordinate the operation of several autonomous physical processes, with the property of an atomic action. The implementation of this coordination must be fault-tolerant if the integrity of the system is to be maintained in the presence of processor or communication failures. Commit protocols have been widely used to provide this type of atomicity and ensure consistency in distributed computer systems. The objective of this research is the development of a class of robust commit protocols, applicable to the coordination of distributed real-time control systems. Extended forms of the standard two phase commit protocol, that provides fault-tolerant and real-time behaviour, were developed. Petri nets are used for the design of the distributed controllers, and to embed the commit protocol models within these controller designs. This composition of controller and protocol model allows the analysis of the complete system in a unified manner. A common problem for Petri net based techniques is that of state space explosion, a modular approach to both the design and analysis would help cope with this problem. Although extensions to Petri nets that allow module construction exist, generally the modularisation is restricted to the specification, and analysis must be performed on the (flat) detailed net. The Petri net designs for the type of distributed systems considered in this research are both large and complex. The top down, bottom up and hybrid synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems in Petri nets are considered. A hybrid approach to Petri net design for a restricted class of communicating processes is developed. Designs produced using this hybrid approach are modular and allow re-use of verified modules. In order to use this form of modular analysis, it is necessary to project an equivalent but reduced behaviour on the modules used. These projections conceal events local to modules that are not essential for the purpose of analysis. To generate the external behaviour, each firing sequence of the subnet is replaced by an atomic transition internal to the module, and the firing of these transitions transforms the input and output markings of the module. Thus local events are concealed through the projection of the external behaviour of modules. This hybrid design approach preserves properties of interest, such as boundedness and liveness, while the systematic concealment of local events allows the management of state space. The approach presented in this research is particularly suited to distributed systems, as the underlying communication model is used as the basis for the interconnection of modules in the design procedure. This hybrid approach is applied to Petri net based design and analysis of distributed controllers for two industrial applications that incorporate the robust, real-time commit protocols developed. Temporal Petri nets, which combine Petri nets and temporal logic, are used to capture and verify causal and temporal aspects of the designs in a unified manner.

Neural Network Modelling with Input Uncertainty: Theory and Application

It is generally assumed when using Bayesian inference methods for neural networks that the input data contains no noise. For real-world (errors in variable) problems this is clearly an unsafe assumption. This paper presents a Bayesian neural network framework which accounts for input noise provided that a model of the noise process exists. In the limit where the noise process is small and symmetric it is shown, using the Laplace approximation, that this method adds an extra term to the usual Bayesian error bar which depends on the variance of the input noise process. Further, by treating the true (noiseless) input as a hidden variable, and sampling this jointly with the network’s weights, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, it is demonstrated that it is possible to infer the regression over the noiseless input. This leads to the possibility of training an accurate model of a system using less accurate, or more uncertain, data. This is demonstrated on both the, synthetic, noisy sine wave problem and a real problem of inferring the forward model for a satellite radar backscatter system used to predict sea surface wind vectors.

The implementation of a functional query language front-end to a relational database system. Available in 2 volumes.

Database systems have a user interface one of the components of which will normally be a query language which is based on a particular data model. Typically data models provide primitives to define, manipulate and query databases. Often these primitives are designed to form self-contained query languages. This thesis describes a prototype implementation of a system which allows users to specify queries against the database in a query language whose primitives are not those provided by the actual model on which the database system is based, but those provided by a different data model. The implementation chosen is the Functional Query Language Front End (FQLFE). This uses the Daplex functional data model and query language. Using FQLFE, users can specify the underlying database (based on the relational model) in terms of Daplex. Queries against this specified view can then be made in Daplex. FQLFE transforms these queries into the query language (Quel) of the underlying target database system (Ingres). The automation of part of the Daplex function definition phase is also described and its implementation discussed.

An Exploration of parametric software cost estimating models for Jackson Systems Development

Most parametric software cost estimation models used today evolved in the late 70's and early 80's. At that time, the dominant software development techniques being used were the early 'structured methods'. Since then, several new systems development paradigms and methods have emerged, one being Jackson Systems Development (JSD). As current cost estimating methods do not take account of these developments, their non-universality means they cannot provide adequate estimates of effort and hence cost. In order to address these shortcomings two new estimation methods have been developed for JSD projects. One of these methods JSD-FPA, is a top-down estimating method, based on the existing MKII function point method. The other method, JSD-COCOMO, is a sizing technique which sizes a project, in terms of lines of code, from the process structure diagrams and thus provides an input to the traditional COCOMO method.The JSD-FPA method allows JSD projects in both the real-time and scientific application areas to be costed, as well as the commercial information systems applications to which FPA is usually applied. The method is based upon a three-dimensional view of a system specification as opposed to the largely data-oriented view traditionally used by FPA. The method uses counts of various attributes of a JSD specification to develop a metric which provides an indication of the size of the system to be developed. This size metric is then transformed into an estimate of effort by calculating past project productivity and utilising this figure to predict the effort and hence cost of a future project. The effort estimates produced were validated by comparing them against the effort figures for six actual projects.The JSD-COCOMO method uses counts of the levels in a process structure chart as the input to an empirically derived model which transforms them into an estimate of delivered source code instructions.

Spatial tuning studies of the pattern evoked electroretinogram

The locus of origin of the pattern evoked electroretinogram, (PERG), has been the subject of considerable discussion. A novel approach was adopted in this study to further elaborate the nature of the PERG evoked by pattern onset/offset presentation. The PERG was found to be linearly related to stimulus contrast and in particular was linearly related to the temporal contrast of the retinal image, when elicited by patterns of low spatial frequency. At high spatial frequencies the retinal image contrast is significantly reduced because of optical degradation. This is described by the eye's modulation transfer function (MTF). The retinal contrast of square wave grating and chequerboard patterns of increasing spatial frequency were found by filtering their Fourier transforms by the MTF. The filtered pattern harmonics were then resynthesised to constitute a profile of retinal image illuminance from which the temporal and spatial contrast of the image could be calculated. If the PERG is a pure illuminance response it should be spatially insensitive and dependent upon the temporal contrast of stimulation. The calculated loss of temporal contrast for finer patterns was expressed as a space-averaged temporal contrast attentuation factor. This factor, applied to PERGs evoked by low spatial frequency patterns, was used to predict the retinal illuminance response elicited by a finer pattern. The predicted response was subtracted from the recorded signal and residual waveform was proposed to represent specific activity. An additional correction for the attenuation of spatial contrast was applied to the extracted pattern specific response. Pattern specific responses computed for different spatial frequency patterns in this way are the predicted result of iso-contrast pattern stimulation. The pattern specific responses demonstrate a striking bandpass spatial selectivity which peaks at higher spatial frequencies in the more central retina. The variation of spatial sensitivity with eccentricity corresponds closely with estimated ganglion receptive field centre separation and psychophysical data. The variation of retinal structure with eccentricity, in the form of the volumes of the nuclear layers, was compared with the amplitudes of the computed retinal illuminance and pattern specific responses. The retinal illuminance response corresponds more closely to the outer and inner nuclear layers whilst the pattern specific response appears more closely related to the ganglion cell layer. In general the negative response transients correspond to the more proximal retinal layers. This thesis therefore supports the proposed contribution of proximal retinal cell activity to the PERG and describes techniques which may be further elaborated for more detailed studies of retinal receptive field dimensions.

Semantics of query-driven communication of exact values

We address the question of how to communicate among distributed processes valuessuch as real numbers, continuous functions and geometrical solids with arbitrary precision, yet efficiently. We extend the established concept of lazy communication using streams of approximants by introducing explicit queries. We formalise this approach using protocols of a query-answer nature. Such protocols enable processes to provide valid approximations with certain accuracy and focusing on certain locality as demanded by the receiving processes through queries. A lattice-theoretic denotational semantics of channel and process behaviour is developed. Thequery space is modelled as a continuous lattice in which the top element denotes the query demanding all the information, whereas other elements denote queries demanding partial and/or local information. Answers are interpreted as elements of lattices constructed over suitable domains of approximations to the exact objects. An unanswered query is treated as an error anddenoted using the top element. The major novel characteristic of our semantic model is that it reflects the dependency of answerson queries. This enables the definition and analysis of an appropriate concept of convergence rate, by assigning an effort indicator to each query and a measure of information content to eachanswer. Thus we capture not only what function a process computes, but also how a process transforms the convergence rates from its inputs to its outputs. In future work these indicatorscan be used to capture further computational complexity measures. A robust prototype implementation of our model is available.

Competing for knowledge:creating, connecting and growing

With the buzzwords of knowledge-based economy and knowledge-driven economy, policy-makers, as well as journalists and management consultants, are pushing forward a vision of change that transforms the way advanced economies work. Yet little is understood about how the knowledge-based economy differs from the old, traditional economy. It is generally agreed that the phenomenon has grown out of the branch of economic thought known as new growth theory. Digesting up-to-date thinking in economics, management, innovation studies and economic geography, this significant volume provides an account of these developments and how they have transformed advanced economies.

On an indirect integral equation approach for stationary heat transfer in semi-infinite layered domains in R3 with cavities

Regions containing internal boundaries such as composite materials arise in many applications.We consider a situation of a layered domain in IR3 containing a nite number of bounded cavities. The model is stationary heat transfer given by the Laplace equation with piecewise constant conductivity. The heat ux (a Neumann condition) is imposed on the bottom of the layered region and various boundary conditions are imposed on the cavities. The usual transmission (interface) conditions are satised at the interface layer, that is continuity of the solution and its normal derivative. To eciently calculate the stationary temperature eld in the semi-innite region, we employ a Green's matrix technique and reduce the problem to boundary integral equations (weakly singular) over the bounded surfaces of the cavities. For the numerical solution of these integral equations, we use Wienert's approach [20]. Assuming that each cavity is homeomorphic with the unit sphere, a fully discrete projection method with super-algebraic convergence order is proposed. A proof of an error estimate for the approximation is given as well. Numerical examples are presented that further highlights the eciency and accuracy of the proposed method.

An iterative method based on boundary integrals for elliptic Cauchy problems in semi-infinite domains

In this study, we investigate the problem of reconstruction of a stationary temperature field from given temperature and heat flux on a part of the boundary of a semi-infinite region containing an inclusion. This situation can be modelled as a Cauchy problem for the Laplace operator and it is an ill-posed problem in the sense of Hadamard. We propose and investigate a Landweber-Fridman type iterative method, which preserve the (stationary) heat operator, for the stable reconstruction of the temperature field on the boundary of the inclusion. In each iteration step, mixed boundary value problems for the Laplace operator are solved in the semi-infinite region. Well-posedness of these problems is investigated and convergence of the procedures is discussed. For the numerical implementation of these mixed problems an efficient boundary integral method is proposed which is based on the indirect variant of the boundary integral approach. Using this approach the mixed problems are reduced to integral equations over the (bounded) boundary of the inclusion. Numerical examples are included showing that stable and accurate reconstructions of the temperature field on the boundary of the inclusion can be obtained also in the case of noisy data. These results are compared with those obtained with the alternating iterative method.

The application of calcined natural dolomitic rock as a solid base catalyst in triglyceride transesterification for biodiesel synthesis

Natural dolomitic rock has been investigated in the transesterification of C and C triglycerides and olive oil with a view to determining its viability as a solid base catalyst for use in biodiesel synthesis. XRD reveals that the dolomitic rock comprised 77% dolomite and 23% magnesian calcite. The generation of basic sites requires calcination at 900 °C, which increases the surface area and transforms the mineral into MgO nanocrystallites dispersed over CaO particles. Calcined dolomitic rock exhibits high activity towards the liquid phase transesterification of glyceryl tributyrate and trioctanoate, and even olive oil, with methanol for biodiesel production. © The Royal Society of Chemistry 2008.