On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Free conjunctival autologous graft for bleb repair and bleb reduction after trabeculectomy and nonpenetrating filtering surgery.

PURPOSE: To describe methods and outcomes of excisional revision of a filtering bleb (bleb revision) using free conjunctival autologous graft either for bleb repair or for bleb reduction after trabeculectomy and deep sclerectomy with an implant. METHODS: Retrospective medical records were reviewed for a consecutive non-comparative case series comprising patients who underwent excisional revision of a filtering bleb between May 1998-January 2001. Excisional revision using free conjunctival autologous graft (bleb revision) was performed either for bleb repair, to treat early and late leaks and hypotony with maculopathy, or for bleb reduction, to improve ocular pain, discomfort, burning, foreign body sensation, tearing, and fluctuations of visual acuity. The revision consisted of bleb excision and free conjunctival autologous graft. The bleb histopathology was analyzed in patients who underwent bleb repair. RESULTS: Sixteen patients were included in the study, consisting of nine patients who had a trabeculectomy and seven patients who had a deep sclerectomy with an implant. Bleb revision was necessary in 14 patients due to leaking filtering bleb (bleb repair), and in 2 patients due to bleb dysesthesia (bleb reduction). After a follow-up of 15.1 +/- 8.4 months, the mean intraocular pressure (IOP) rose from 7.8 +/- 6.3 mm Hg to 14.3 +/- 6.5 mm Hg, and the visual acuity from 0.4 +/- 0.3 to 0.7 +/- 0.3, with a P value of 0.008 and 0.03, respectively. The complete success rate at 32 months, according to the Kaplan-Meier survival curve, was 38.3%, and the qualified success rate was 83.3%. Four patients (25%) required additional suturing for persistent bleb leak. To control IOP, antiglaucoma medical therapy was needed for six patients (37.5%) and repeated glaucoma surgery was needed for one patient. CONCLUSION: Free conjunctival autologous graft is a safe and successful procedure for bleb repair and bleb reduction. However, patients should be aware of the postoperative possibility of requiring medical or surgical intervention for IOP control after revision.

Cherenkov mesons as in-medium quark energy loss

We recently showed that a heavy quark moving su ciently fast through a quark-gluon plasma may lose energy by Cherenkov-radiating mesons [1]. Here we review our previous holographic calculation of the energy loss in N = 4 Super Yang-Mills and extend it to longitudinal vector mesons and scalar mesons. We also discuss phenomenological implications for heavy-ion collision experiments. Although the Cherenkov energy loss is an O(1=Nc) effect, a ballpark estimate yields a value of dE/dx for Nc = 3 which is comparable to that of other mechanisms.

Loss of mitochondrial functions associated with azole resistance in Candida glabrata results in enhanced virulence in mice.

Mitochondrial dysfunction is one of the possible mechanisms by which azole resistance can occur in Candida glabrata. Cells with mitochondrial DNA deficiency (so-called "petite mutants") upregulate ATP binding cassette (ABC) transporter genes and thus display increased resistance to azoles. Isolation of such C. glabrata mutants from patients receiving antifungal therapy or prophylaxis has been rarely reported. In this study, we characterized two sequential and related C. glabrata isolates recovered from the same patient undergoing azole therapy. The first isolate (BPY40) was azole susceptible (fluconazole MIC, 4 μg/ml), and the second (BPY41) was azole resistant (fluconazole MIC, >256 μg/ml). BPY41 exhibited mitochondrial dysfunction and upregulation of the ABC transporter genes C. glabrata CDR1 (CgCDR1), CgCDR2, and CgSNQ2. We next assessed whether mitochondrial dysfunction conferred a selective advantage during host infection by testing the virulence of BPY40 and BPY41 in mice. Surprisingly, even with in vitro growth deficiency compared to BPY40, BPY41 was more virulent (as judged by mortality and fungal tissue burden) than BPY40 in both systemic and vaginal murine infection models. The increased virulence of the petite mutant correlated with a drastic gain of fitness in mice compared to that of its parental isolate. To understand this unexpected feature, genome-wide changes in gene expression driven by the petite mutation were analyzed by use of microarrays during in vitro growth. Enrichment of specific biological processes (oxido-reductive metabolism and the stress response) was observed in BPY41, all of which was consistent with mitochondrial dysfunction. Finally, some genes involved in cell wall remodelling were upregulated in BPY41 compared to BPY40, which may partially explain the enhanced virulence of BPY41. In conclusion, this study shows for the first time that mitochondrial dysfunction selected in vivo under azole therapy, even if strongly affecting in vitro growth characteristics, can confer a selective advantage under host conditions, allowing the C. glabrata mutant to be more virulent than wild-type isolates.

Loss of serum response factor in keratinocytes results in hyperproliferative skin disease in mice.

The transcription factor serum response factor (SRF) plays a crucial role in the development of several organs. However, its role in the skin has not been explored. Here, we show that keratinocytes in normal human and mouse skin expressed high levels of SRF but that SRF expression was strongly downregulated in the hyperproliferative epidermis of wounded and psoriatic skin. Keratinocyte-specific deletion within the mouse SRF locus during embryonic development caused edema and skin blistering, and all animals died in utero. Postnatal loss of mouse SRF in keratinocytes resulted in the development of psoriasis-like skin lesions. These lesions were characterized by inflammation, hyperproliferation, and abnormal differentiation of keratinocytes as well as by disruption of the actin cytoskeleton. Ultrastructural analysis revealed markedly reduced cell-cell and cell-matrix contacts and loss of cell compaction in all epidermal layers. siRNA-mediated knockdown of SRF in primary human keratinocytes revealed that the cytoskeletal abnormalities and adhesion defects were a direct consequence of the loss of SRF. In contrast, the hyperproliferation observed in vivo was an indirect effect that was most likely a consequence of the inflammation. These results reveal that loss of SRF disrupts epidermal homeostasis and strongly suggest its involvement in the pathogenesis of hyperproliferative skin diseases, including psoriasis.

SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY OF NUTRIENT LOSS BY EROSION IN SUGARCANE HARVESTING SCENARIOS

The assessment of spatial uncertainty in the prediction of nutrient losses by erosion associated with landscape models is an important tool for soil conservation planning. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial and local uncertainty in predicting depletion rates of soil nutrients (P, K, Ca, and Mg) by soil erosion from green and burnt sugarcane harvesting scenarios, using sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS). A regular grid with equidistant intervals of 50 m (626 points) was established in the 200-ha study area, in Tabapuã, São Paulo, Brazil. The rate of soil depletion (SD) was calculated from the relation between the nutrient concentration in the sediments and the chemical properties in the original soil for all grid points. The data were subjected to descriptive statistical and geostatistical analysis. The mean SD rate for all nutrients was higher in the slash-and-burn than the green cane harvest scenario (Student’s t-test, p<0.05). In both scenarios, nutrient loss followed the order: Ca>Mg>K>P. The SD rate was highest in areas with greater slope. Lower uncertainties were associated to the areas with higher SD and steeper slopes. Spatial uncertainties were highest for areas of transition between concave and convex landforms.

NITROGEN LOSS BY EROSION FROM MECHANICALLY TILLED AND UNTILLED SOIL UNDER SUCCESSIVE SIMULATED RAINFALLS

The description of the fate of fertilizer-derived nitrogen (N) in agricultural systems is an essential tool to enhance management practices that maximize nutrient use by crops and minimize losses. Soil erosion causes loss of nutrients such as N, causing negative effects on surface and ground water quality, aside from losses in agricultural productivity by soil depletion. Studies correlating the percentage of fertilizer-derived N (FDN) with soil erosion rates and the factors involved in this process are scarce. The losses of soil and fertilizer-derived N by water erosion in soil under conventional tillage and no tillage under different rainfall intensities were quantified, identifying the intervening factors that increase loss. The experiment was carried out on plots (3.5 × 11 m) with two treatments and three replications, under simulated rainfall. The treatments consisted of soil with and soil without tillage. Three successive rainfalls were applied in intervals of 24 h, at intensities of 30 mm/h, 30 mm/h and 70 mm/h. The applied N fertilizer was isotopically labeled (15N) and incorporated into the soil in a line perpendicular to the plot length. Tillage absence resulted in higher soil losses and higher total nitrogen losses (TN) by erosion induced by the rainfalls. The FDN losses followed another pattern, since FDN contributions were highest from tilled plots, even when soil and TN losses were lowest, i.e., the smaller the amount of eroded sediment, the greater the percentage of FDN associated with these. Rain intensity did not affect the FDN loss, and losses were greatest after less intense rainfalls in both treatments.

Loss of glucose-induced insulin secretion and GLUT2 expression in transplanted beta-cells.

Either 200 or 400 syngeneic islets were transplanted under the kidney capsule of normal or streptozocin-induced diabetic B6/AF1 mice. The diabetic mice with 400 islets became normoglycemic, but those with 200 islets, an insufficient number, were still diabetic after the transplantation (Tx). Two weeks after Tx, GLUT2 expression in the islet grafts was evaluated by immunofluorescence and Western blots, and graft function was examined by perfusion of the graft-bearing kidney. Immunofluorescence for GLUT2 was dramatically reduced in the beta-cells of grafts with 200 islets exposed to hyperglycemia. However, it was plentiful in grafts with 400 islets in a normoglycemic environment. Densitometric analysis of Western blots on graft homogenates demonstrated that GLUT2 protein levels in the islets, when exposed to chronic hyperglycemia for 2 weeks, were decreased to 16% of those of normal recipients. Moreover, these grafts had defective glucose-induced insulin secretion, while the effects of arginine were preserved. We conclude that GLUT2 expression in normal beta-cells is promptly down-regulated during exposure to hyperglycemia and may contribute to the loss of glucose-induced secretion of diabetes.

Liming in Agricultural Production Models with and Without the Adoption of Crop-Livestock Integration

ABSTRACT Perennial forage crops used in crop-livestock integration (CLI) are able to accumulate large amounts of straw on the soil surface in no-tillage system (NTS). In addition, they can potentially produce large amounts of soluble organic compounds that help improving the efficiency of liming in the subsurface, which favors root growth, thus reducing the risks of loss in yield during dry spells and the harmful effects of “overliming”. The aim of this study was to test the effects of liming on two models of agricultural production, with and without crop-livestock integration, for 2 years. Thus, an experiment was conducted in a Latossolo Vermelho (Oxisol) with a very clayey texture located in an agricultural area under the NTS in Bandeirantes, PR, Brazil. Liming was performed to increase base saturation (V) to 65, 75, and 90 % while one plot per block was maintained without the application of lime (control). A randomized block experimental design was adopted arranged in split-plots and four plots/block, with four replications. The soil properties evaluated were: pH in CaCl2, soil organic matter (SOM), Ca, Mg, K, Al, and P. The effects of liming were observed to a greater depth and for a long period through mobilization of ions in the soil, leading to a reduction in SOM and Al concentration and an increase in pH and the levels of Ca and Mg. In the first crop year, adoption of CLI led to an increase in the levels of K and Mg and a reduction in the levels of SOM; however, in the second crop year, the rate of decline of SOM decreased compared to the decline observed in the first crop year, and the level of K increased, whereas that of P decreased. The extent of the effects of liming in terms of depth and improvement in the root environment from the treatments were observed only partially from the changes observed in the chemical properties studied.

Fluid-rock-strain feedbacks in extensional shear zones

La présence de fluide météorique synchrone à l'activité du détachement (Farmin, 2003 ; Mulch et al., 2007 ; Gébelin et al., 2011), implique que les zones de cisaillement sont des systèmes ouverts avec des cellules de convections à l'échelle crustale et un intense gradient géothermique au sein du détachement (Morrison et Anderson, 1998, Gottardi et al., 2011). De plus, les réactions métamorphiques liées à des infiltrations fluides dans les zones de cisaillement extensionnel peuvent influencer les paramètres rhéologiques du système (White and Knipe, 1978), et impliquer la localisation de la déformation dans la croûte. Dans ce manuscrit, deux zones de cisaillement infiltrées par des fluides météoriques sont étudiées, l'une étant largement quartzitique, et l'autre de nature granitique ; les relations entre déformation, fluides, et roches s'appuient sur des approches structurales, microstructurales, chimiques et isotopiques. L'étude du détachement du Columbia river (WA, USA) met en évidence que la déformation mylonitique se développe en un million d'années. La phase de cisaillement principal s'effectue à 365± 30°C d'après les compositions isotopiques en oxygène du quartz et de la muscovite. Ces minéraux atteignent l'équilibre isotopique lors de leur recristallisation dynamique contemporaine à la déformation. La zone de cisaillement enregistre une baisse de température, remplaçant le mécanisme de glissement par dislocation par celui de dissolution- précipitation dans les derniers stades de l'activité du détachement. La dynamique de circulation fluide bascule d'une circulation pervasive à chenalisée, ce qui engendre localement la rupture des équilibres d'échange isotopiques. La zone de cisaillement de Bitterroot (MT, USA) présente une zone mylonitique de 600m d'épaisseur, progressant des protomylonites aux ultramylonites. L'intensité de la localisation de la déformation se reflète directement sur l'hydratation des feldspaths, réaction métamorphique majeure dite de « rock softening ». Une étude sur roche totale indique des transferts de masse latéraux au sein des mylonites, et d'importantes pertes de volume dans les ultramylonites. La composition isotopique en hydrogène des phyllosilicates met en évidence la présence (1) d'une source magmatique/métamorphique originelle, caractérisée par les granodiorites ayant conservé leur foliation magmatique, jusqu'aux protomylonites, et (2) une source météorique qui tamponne les valeurs des phyllosilicates des fabriques mylonitiques jusqu'aux veines de quartz non-déformées. Les compositions isotopiques en oxygène des minéraux illustrent le tamponnement de la composition du fluide météorique par l'encaissant. Ce phénomène cesse lors du processus de chloritisation de la biotite, puisque les valeurs des chlorites sont extrêmement négatives (-10 per mil). La thermométrie isotopique indique une température d'équilibre isotopique de la granodiorite entre 600-500°C, entre 500-300°C dans les mylonites, et entre 300 et 200°C dans les fabriques cassantes (cataclasites et veines de quartz). Basé sur les résultats issus de ce travail, nous proposons un modèle général d'interactions fluide-roches-déformation dans les zones de détachements infiltrées par des fluides météoriques. Les zones de détachements évoluent rapidement (en quelques millions d'années) au travers de la transition fragile-ductile ; celle-ci étant partiellement contrôlée par l'effet thermique des circulations de fluide météoriques. Les systèmes de détachements sont des lieux où la déformation et les circulations fluides sont couplées ; évoluant rapidement vers une localisation de la déformation, et de ce fait, une exhumation efficace. - The presence of meteoric fluids synchronous with the activity of extensional detachment zones (Famin, 2004; Mulch et al., 2007; Gébelin et al., 2011) implies that extensional systems involve fluid convection at a crustal scale, which results in high geothermal gradients within active detachment zones (Morrison and Anderson, 1998, Gottardi et al., 2011). In addition, the metamorphic reactions related to fluid infiltration in extensional shear zones can influence the rheology of the system (White and Knipe, 1978) and ultimately how strain localizes in the crust. In this thesis, two shear zones that were permeated by meteoric fluids are studied, one quartzite-dominated, and the other of granitic composition; the relations between strain, fluid, and evolving rock composition are addressed using structural, microstructural, and chemical/isotopic measurements. The study of the Columbia River detachment that bounds the Kettle core complex (Washington, USA) demonstrates that the mylonitic fabrics in the 100 m thick quartzite- dominated detachment footwall developed within one million years. The main shearing stage occurred at 365 ± 30°C when oxygen isotopes of quartz and muscovite equilibrated owing to coeval deformation and dynamic recrystallization of these minerals. The detachment shear zone records a decrease in temperature, and dislocation creep during detachment shearing gave way to dissolution-precipitation and fracturing in the later stages of detachment activity. Fluid flow switched from pervasive to channelized, leading to isotopic disequilibrium between different minerals. The Bitterroot shear zone detachment (Montana, USA) developed a 600 m thick mylonite zone, with well-developed transitions from protomylonite to ultramylonite. The localization of deformation relates directly to the intensity of feldspar hydration, a major rock- softening metamorphic reaction. Bulk-rock analyses of the mylonitic series indicate lateral mass transfer in the mylonite (no volume change), and significant volume loss in ultramylonite. The hydrogen isotope composition of phyllosilicates shows (1) the presence of an initial magmatic/metamorphic source characterized by the granodiorite in which a magmatic, and gneissic (protomylonite) foliation developed, and (2) a meteoric source that buffers the values of phyllosilicates in mylonite, ultramylonite, cataclasite, and deformed and undeformed quartz veins. The mineral oxygen isotope compositions were buffered by the host-rock compositions until chloritization of biotite started; the chlorite oxygen isotope values are negative (-10 per mil). Isotope thermometry indicates a temperature of isotopic equilibrium of the granodiorite between 600-500°C, between 500-300°C in the mylonite, and between 300 and 200°C for brittle fabrics (cataclasite and quartz veins). Results from this work suggest a general model for fluid-rock-strain feedbacks in detachment systems that are permeated by meteoric fluids. Phyllosilicates have preserved in their hydrogen isotope values evidence for the interaction between rock and meteoric fluids during mylonite development. Fluid flow generates mass transfer along the tectonic anisotropy, and mylonites do not undergo significant volume change, except locally in ultramylonite zones. Hydration of detachment shear zones attends mechanical grain size reduction and enhances strain softening and localization. Self-exhuming detachment shear zones evolve rapidly (a few million years) through the transition from ductile to brittle, which is partly controlled by the thermal effect of circulating surface fluids. Detachment systems are zones in the crust where strain and fluid flow are coupled; these systems. evolve rapidly toward strain localization and therefore efficient exhumation.

Novel anesthetics and other treatment strategies for refractory status epilepticus

Refractory status epilepticus (RSE)-that is, seizures resistant to at least two antiepileptic drugs (AEDs)-is generally managed with barbiturates, propofol, or midazolam, despite a low level of evidence (Rossetti, 2007). When this approach fails, the need for alternative pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic strategies emerges. These have been investigated even less systematically than the aforementioned compounds, and are often used, sometimes in succession, in cases of extreme refractoriness (Robakis & Hirsch, 2006). Several possibilities are reviewed here. In view of the marked heterogeneity of reported information, etiologies, ages, and comedications, it is extremely difficult to evaluate a given method, not to say to compare different strategies among them. Pharmacologic Approaches Isoflurane and desflurane may complete the armamentarium of anesthetics,' and should be employed in a ''close'' environment, in order to prevent intoxication of treating personnel. c-Aminobutyric acid (GABA)A receptor potentiation represents the putative mechanism of action. In an earlier report, isoflurane was used for up to 55 h in nine patients, controlling seizures in all; mortality was, however, 67% (Kofke et al., 1989). More recently, the use of these inhalational anesthetics was described in seven subjects with RSE, for up to 26 days, with an endtidal concentration of 1.2-5%. All patients required vasopressors, and paralytic ileus occurred in three; outcome was fatal in three patients (43%) (Mirsattari et al., 2004). Ketamine, known as an emergency anesthetic because of its favorable hemodynamic profile, is an N-methyl-daspartate (NMDA) antagonist; the interest for its use in RSE derives from animal works showing loss of GABAA efficacy and maintained NMDA sensitivity in prolonged status epilepticus (Mazarati & Wasterlain, 1999). However, to avoid possible neurotoxicity, it appears safer to combine ketamine with GABAergic compounds (Jevtovic-Todorovic et al., 2001; Ubogu et al., 2003), also because of a likely synergistic effect (Martin & Kapur, 2008). There are few reported cases in humans, describing progressive dosages up to 7.5 mg/kg/h for several days (Sheth & Gidal, 1998; Quigg et al., 2002; Pruss & Holtkamp, 2008), with moderate outcomes. Paraldehyde acts through a yet-unidentified mechanism, and appears to be relatively safe in terms of cardiovascular tolerability (Ramsay, 1989; Thulasimani & Ramaswamy, 2002), but because of the risk of crystal formation and its reactivity with plastic, it should be used only as fresh prepared solution in glass devices (Beyenburg et al., 2000). There are virtually no recent reports regarding its use in adults RSE, whereas rectal paraldehyde in children with status epilepticus resistant to benzodiazepines seems less efficacious than intravenous phenytoin (Chin et al., 2008). Etomidate is another anesthetic agent for which the exact mechanism of action is also unknown, which is also relatively favorable regarding cardiovascular side effects, and may be used for rapid sedation. Its use in RSE was reported in eight subjects (Yeoman et al., 1989). After a bolus of 0.3 mg/kg, a drip of up to 7.2 mg/kg/h for up to 12 days was administered, with hypotension occurring in five patients; two patients died. A reversible inhibition of cortisol synthesis represents an important concern, limiting its widespread use and implying a careful hormonal substitution during treatment (Beyenburg et al., 2000). Several nonsedating approaches have been reported. The use of lidocaine in RSE, a class Ib antiarrhythmic agent modulating sodium channels, was reviewed in 1997 (Walker & Slovis, 1997). Initial boluses up to 5 mg/kg and perfusions of up to 6 mg/kg/h have been mentioned; somewhat surprisingly, at times lidocaine seemed to be successful in controlling seizures in patients who were refractory to phenytoin. The aforementioned dosages should not be overshot, in order to keep lidocaine levels under 5 mg/L and avoid seizure induction (Hamano et al., 2006). A recent pediatric retrospective survey on 57 RSE episodes (37 patients) described a response in 36%, and no major adverse events; mortality was not given (Hamano et al., 2006 Verapamil, a calcium-channel blocker, also inhibits P-glycoprotein, a multidrug transporter that may diminish AED availability in the brain (Potschka et al., 2002). Few case reports on its use in humans are available; this medication nevertheless appears relatively safe (under cardiac monitoring) up to dosages of 360 mg/day (Iannetti et al., 2005). Magnesium, a widely used agent for seizures elicited by eclampsia, has also been anecdotally reported in RSE (Fisher et al., 1988; Robakis & Hirsch, 2006), but with scarce results even at serum levels of 14 mm. The rationale may be found in the physiologic blockage of NMDA channels by magnesium ions (Hope & Blumenfeld, 2005). Ketogenic diet has been prescribed for decades, mostly in children, to control refractory seizures. Its use in RSE as ''ultima ratio'' has been occasionally described: three of six children (Francois et al., 2003) and one adult (Bodenant et al., 2008) were responders. This approach displays its effect subacutely over several days to a few weeks. Because ''malignant RSE'' seems at times to be the consequence of immunologic processes (Holtkamp et al., 2005), a course of immunomodulatory treatment is often advocated in this setting, even in the absence of definite autoimmune etiologies (Robakis & Hirsch, 2006); steroids, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), plasma exchanges, or intravenous immunoglobulins may be used alone or in sequential combination. Nonpharmacologic Approaches These strategies are described somewhat less frequently than pharmacologic approaches. Acute implantation of vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) has been reported in RSE (Winston et al., 2001; Patwardhan et al., 2005; De Herdt et al., 2009). Stimulation was usually initiated in the operation room, and intensity progressively adapted over a few days up to 1.25 mA (with various regimens regarding the other parameters), allowing a subacute seizure control; one transitory episode of bradycardia/asystole has been described (De Herdt et al., 2009). Of course, pending identification of a definite seizure focus, resective surgery may also be considered in selected cases (Lhatoo & Alexopoulos, 2007). Low-frequency (0.5 Hz) transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) at 90% of the resting motor threshold has been reported to be successful for about 2 months in a patient with epilepsia partialis continua, but with a weaning effect afterward, implying the need for a repetitive use (Misawa et al., 2005). More recently, TMS was applied in a combination of a short ''priming'' high frequency (up to 100 Hz) and longer runs of low-frequency stimulations (1 Hz) at 90-100% of the motor threshold in seven other patients with simple-partial status, with mixed results (Rotenberg et al., 2009). Paradoxically at first glance, electroconvulsive treatment may be found in cases of extremely resistant RSE. A recent case report illustrates its use in an adult patient with convulsive status, with three sessions (three convulsions each) carried out over 3 days, resulting in a moderate recovery; the mechanism is believed to be related to modification of the synaptic release of neurotransmitters (Cline & Roos, 2007). Therapeutic hypothermia, which is increasingly used in postanoxic patients (Oddo et al., 2008), has been the object of a recent case series in RSE (Corry et al., 2008). Reduction of energy demand, excitatory neurotransmission, and neuroprotective effects may account for the putative mechanism of action. Four adult patients in RSE were cooled to 31_-34_C with an endovascular system for up to 90 h, and then passively rewarmed over 2-50 h. Seizures were controlled in two patients, one of whom died; also one of the other two patients in whom seizures continued subsequently deceased. Possible side effects are related to acid-base and electrolyte disturbances, and coagulation dysfunction including thrombosis, infectious risks, cardiac arrhythmia, and paralytic ileus (Corry et al., 2008; Cereda et al., 2009). Finally, anecdotic evidence suggests that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-air exchange may induce some transitory benefit in RSE (Kohrmann et al., 2006); although this approach was already in use in the middle of the twentieth century, the mechanism is unknown. Acknowledgment A wide spectrum of pharmacologic (sedating and nonsedating) and nonpharmacologic (surgical, or involving electrical stimulation) regimens might be applied to attempt RSE control. Their use should be considered only after refractoriness to AED or anesthetics displaying a higher level of evidence. Although it seems unlikely that these uncommon and scarcely studied strategies will influence the RSE outcome in a decisive way, some may be interesting in particular settings. However, because the main prognostic determinant in status epilepticus appears to be related to the underlying etiology rather than to the treatment approach (Rossetti et al., 2005, 2008), the safety issue should always represent a paramount concern for the prescribing physician. Conclusion The author confirms that he has read the Journal's position on issues involved in ethical publication and affirms that this paper is consistent with those guidelines.

Effect of Vagus Nerve Stimulation in an Adult Patient with Dravet Syndrome: Contribution to Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy Risk Reduction?.

We report on a patient who developed, from 5 months of age, multiple seizure types, including myoclonic, associated with severe psychomotor delay, leading to the diagnosis of Dravet syndrome. Over the years, he developed refractory epilepsy and was implanted with a vagus nerve stimulator at the age of 19. After 3 months, he experienced a progressive improvement of partial and generalized seizures, with a >90% reduction, and better alertness. This meaningful clinical improvement is discussed in the light of the sudden unexpected death in epilepsy risk, which is high in this setting, and seems remarkably diminished in our patient in view of the reduction of generalized convulsions.