Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

g4c2c: A model for citizen engagement at arms' length from government

The recognition that Web 2.0 applications and social media sites will strengthen and improve interaction between governments and citizens has resulted in a global push into new e-democracy or Government 2.0 spaces. These typically follow government-to-citizen (g2c) or citizen-to-citizen (c2c) models, but both these approaches are problematic: g2c is often concerned more with service delivery to citizens as clients, or exists to make a show of ‘listening to the public’ rather than to genuinely source citizen ideas for government policy, while c2c often takes place without direct government participation and therefore cannot ensure that the outcomes of citizen deliberations are accepted into the government policy-making process. Building on recent examples of Australian Government 2.0 initiatives, we suggest a new approach based on government support for citizen-to-citizen engagement, or g4c2c, as a workable compromise, and suggest that public service broadcasters should play a key role in facilitating this model of citizen engagement.

Evaluation of the iPhone with an acrylic sleeve versus the Scoliometer for rib hump measurement in scoliosis

Background. Vertebral rotation found in structural scoliosis contributes to trunkal asymmetry which is commonly measured with a simple Scoliometer device on a patient's thorax in the forward flexed position. The new generation of mobile 'smartphones' have an integrated accelerometer, making accurate angle measurement possible, which provides a potentially useful clinical tool for assessing rib hump deformity. This study aimed to compare rib hump angle measurements performed using a Smartphone and traditional Scoliometer on a set of plaster torsos representing the range of torsional deformities seen in clinical practice. Methods. Nine observers measured the rib hump found on eight plaster torsos moulded from scoliosis patients with both a Scoliometer and an Apple iPhone on separate occasions. Each observer repeated the measurements at least a week after the original measurements, and were blinded to previous results. Intra-observer reliability and inter-observer reliability were analysed using the method of Bland and Altman and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. The Intra-Class Correlation Coefficients (ICC) were calculated for repeated measurements of each of the eight plaster torso moulds by the nine observers. Results. Mean absolute difference between pairs of iPhone/Scoliometer measurements was 2.1 degrees, with a small (1 degrees) bias toward higher rib hump angles with the iPhone. 95% confidence intervals for intra-observer variability were +/- 1.8 degrees (Scoliometer) and +/- 3.2 degrees (iPhone). 95% confidence intervals for inter-observer variability were +/- 4.9 degrees (iPhone) and +/- 3.8 degrees (Scoliometer). The measurement errors and confidence intervals found were similar to or better than the range of previously published thoracic rib hump measurement studies. Conclusions. The iPhone is a clinically equivalent rib hump measurement tool to the Scoliometer in spinal deformity patients. The novel use of plaster torsos as rib hump models avoids the variables of patient fatigue and discomfort, inconsistent positioning and deformity progression using human subjects in a single or multiple measurement sessions.

Secondary curve behavior in Lenke Type 1C adolescent idiopathic scoliosis after thoracoscopic selective anterior thoracic fusion

Study Design. Analysis of a case series of 24 Lenke 1C adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients receiving selective thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction. Objective. To report the behaviour of the compensatory lumbar curve in a group of Lenke IC AIS patients following thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction, and to compare the results of this study with previously published data. Summary of Background Data. Several prior studies have reported spontaneous lumbar curve correction for both anterior and posterior selective fusion in Lenke 1C/King-Moe II patients; however to our knowledge no previous studies have reported outcomes of thoracoscopic anterior correction for this curve type. Methods. All AIS patients with a curve classification of Lenke 1C and a minimum of 24 months follow-up were retrieved from a consecutive series of 190 AIS patients who underwent thoracoscopic anterior instrumented fusion. Cobb angles of the major curve, instrumented levels, compensatory lumbar curve, and T5-T12 kyphosis were recorded, as well as coronal spinal balance, T1 tilt angle and shoulder balance. All radiographic parameters were measured before surgery and at 2, 6, 12 and 24 months after surgery. Results. Twenty-four female patients with right thoracic curves had a mean thoracic Cobb angle of 53.0° before surgery, decreasing to 24.9° two years after surgery. The mean lumbar compensatory Cobb angle was 43.5° before surgery, spontaneously correcting to 25.4° two years after surgery, indicating balance between the thoracic and lumbar scoliotic curves. The lumbar correction achieved (41.8%) compares favourably to previous studies. Conclusions. Selective thoracoscopic anterior fusion allows spontaneous lumbar curve correction and achieves coronal balance of main thoracic and compensatory lumbar curves, good cosmesis and patient satisfaction. Correction and balance are maintained 24 months after surgery.

Measuring the apparent size of the Moon with a digital camera

The Moon appears to be much larger closer to the horizon than when higher in the sky. This is called the ‘Moon Illusion’ since the observed size of the Moon is not actually larger when the Moon is just above the horizon. This article describes a technique for verifying that the observed size of the Moon in not larger on the horizon. The technique can be easily performed in a high school teaching environment. Moreover, the technique demonstrates the surprising fact that the observed size of the Moon is actually smaller on the horizon due to atmospheric refraction. For the purposes of this paper, several images of the moon were taken with the Moon close to the horizon and close to the zenith. Images were processed using a free program called ImageJ. The Moon was found to be 5.73 ±0.04% smaller in area on the horizon then at the zenith.

Assessment of interactions between alluvial, Great Artesian Basin (GAB) and volcanic aquifers using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia

A detailed 3D lithological model framework was developed using GOCAD software to understand interactions between alluvial, volcanic and GAB aquifers and the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge to the alluvium of the Lockyer Valley. Groundwater chemistry, isotope data (H20-δ2H and δ18O , 87Sr/86Sr, 3H and 14C) and groundwater level time-series data from approximately 550 observation wells were integrated into the catchment-wide 3D model to assess the recharge processes involved. This approach enabled the identification of zones where recharge to the alluvium primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. Importantly, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium recharge is also from storm rainfall and seepage discharge from the underlying GAB aquifers. These other sources of recharge are indicated by (a) the absence of a response of groundwater levels to flooding in some areas, (b) old radiocarbon ages, and (c) distinct bedrock water chemistry and δ2H and δ18O signatures in alluvial groundwater at these locations. Integration of isotopes, water chemistry and time-series displays of groundwater levels before and after the 2010/2011 flood into the 3D model suggest that the spatial variations in the alluvial groundwater response are mostly controlled by valley morphology and lithological (i.e. permeability) variations within the alluvium. Examination of the groundwater level variations in the 3D model also enabled quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined alluvial aquifer prior to and post-flood events.

The effect of intraoperative force on scoliosis correction at the apex : a biomechanical investigation

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a complex 3D deformity of the spine, which may require surgical correction in severe cases. Computer models of the spine provide a potentially powerful tool to virtually ‘test’ various surgical scenarios prior to surgery. Using patient-specific computer models of seven AIS patients who had undergone a single rod anterior procedure, we have recently found that the majority of the deformity correction occurs at the apical joint or the joint immediately cephalic to the apex. In the current paper, we investigate the biomechanics of the apical joint for these patients using clinically measured intra-operative compressive forces applied during implant placement. The aim of this study is to determine a relationship between the compressive joint force applied intra-operatively and the achievable deformity correction at the apical joint.

Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at 39 sites, within eight countries, revealed that species abundances were similar at native (home) and introduced (away) sites – grass species were generally abundant home and away, while forbs were low in abundance, but more abundant at home. Sites with six or more of these species had similar community abundance hierarchies, suggesting that suites of introduced species are assembling similarly on different continents. Overall, we found that substantial changes to populations are not necessarily a pre-condition for invasion success and that increases in species abundance are unusual. Instead, abundance at home predicts abundance away, a potentially useful additional criterion for biosecurity programmes.

A computer model to simulate scoliosis surgery

Use of patient-specific computer models as a pre-operative planning tool permits predictions of the likely deformity correction and allows a more detailed investigation of the biomechanical influence of different surgical procedures on the scoliotic spinal anatomy. In this paper, patient-specific computer models are used of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients who underwent a single rod anterior procedure at the Mater Children’s Hospital in Brisbane, to predict deformity correction and to investigate the change in biomechanics of the scoliotic spine due to surgical compressive forces applied during implant placement.

Is the iPhone a useful clinical tool to monitor spinal deformity patients?

The progression of spinal deformity is traditionally monitored on hard copy radiographs using the Cobb method with a protractor and pencil. The rotation of the spine and ribcage (rib hump) in scoliosis is measured with a hand-held inclinometer/Scoliometer. The iPhone and other smart phones, can accurately sense inclination, and can therefore be used to measure Cobb angles and rib hump angulation. The purpose of this study was to quantify the performance of the iPhone compared to the standard protractor (Cobb angles) and the Scoliometer (rib hump).

Intrapleural analgesia following endoscopic scoliosis correction

Endoscopic (thoracoscopic) scoliosis correction plays an important part in the surgical options available for treating adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. However, there is a paucity of literature examining optimum methods of analgesia following this type of surgery. Intra-pleural analgesia has been successfully used following cardiothoracic procedures [1-3]. The role of intra-pleural analgesia after keyhole anterior selective thoracic scoliosis correction is examined and described.

Polycaprolactone-based scaffold plus recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein (rhBMP-2) in an ovine model of anterior spinal fusion

Synthetic scaffolds combined with growth factors have the potential to replace allograft or autograft as a graft material for spinal interbody fusion. Such tissue engineering approaches may be useful in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) surgery, however there are no studies to date examining the use of such biodegradable implants in combination with biologics in a thoracic spine model. This in vivo study examines the use of biodegradable polycaprolactone (PCL) based scaffolds with rhBMP-2 as a bone graft substitute in a sheep thoracic fusion model, where an anterior approach is used to simulate minimally invasive surgical deformity correction in the setting of AIS.