Bayesian Emulation for Sequential Modeling, Inference and Decision Analysis

The advances in three related areas of state-space modeling, sequential Bayesian learning, and decision analysis are addressed, with the statistical challenges of scalability and associated dynamic sparsity. The key theme that ties the three areas is Bayesian model emulation: solving challenging analysis/computational problems using creative model emulators. This idea defines theoretical and applied advances in non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space modeling, dynamic sparsity, decision analysis and statistical computation, across linked contexts of multivariate time series and dynamic networks studies. Examples and applications in financial time series and portfolio analysis, macroeconomics and internet studies from computational advertising demonstrate the utility of the core methodological innovations.

Chapter 1 summarizes the three areas/problems and the key idea of emulating in those areas. Chapter 2 discusses the sequential analysis of latent threshold models with use of emulating models that allows for analytical filtering to enhance the efficiency of posterior sampling. Chapter 3 examines the emulator model in decision analysis, or the synthetic model, that is equivalent to the loss function in the original minimization problem, and shows its performance in the context of sequential portfolio optimization. Chapter 4 describes the method for modeling the steaming data of counts observed on a large network that relies on emulating the whole, dependent network model by independent, conjugate sub-models customized to each set of flow. Chapter 5 reviews those advances and makes the concluding remarks.

Options to advance co-ordination and analysis of climate data in Europe

Systematic, high-quality observations of the atmosphere, oceans and terrestrial environments are required to improve understanding of climate characteristics and the consequences of climate change. The overall aim of this report is to carry out a comparative assessment of approaches taken to addressing the state of European observations systems and related data analysis by some leading actors in the field. This research reports on approaches to climate observations and analyses in Ireland, Switzerland, Germany, The Netherlands and Austria and explores options for a more coordinated approach to national responses to climate observations in Europe. The key aspects addressed are: an assessment of approaches to develop GCOS and provision of analysis of GCOS data; an evaluation of how these countries are reporting development of GCOS; highlighting best practice in advancing GCOS implementation including analysis of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs); a comparative summary of the differences and synergies in terms of the reporting of climate observations; an overview of relevant European initiatives and recommendations on how identified gaps might be addressed in the short to medium term.

Spic'ing into Existence: Epitaph, Epithet, and the Ethnopoetic Imagination

Quién Es, Quién Somos? Spic’ing into Existence claims a four-fold close-reading: first, analysis of texts: from theoretical meditations to (prison) memoir and film. Second, a half dozen central figures appear, largely Latinx and black American. They cut across a score of registers, socio-economics, ideological reservations, but all are, as Carl Carlton sang, poetry in motion. Writers, poets, theologians, pathologists, artists, comedians, actors, students whose vocation is invocation, the inner surge of their calling. Third, the manuscript draws from a series of historical moments—from radical liberation of the late 60s, to contemporary student activism. Finally, this body of work is movement, in all its social, gestural, and kinesthetic viscera. From this last heading, we peel away layers of what I call the ethnopoet, the fascia undoing that reveals its bio-political anatomy, dressing its bare life with kinship speech. First, the social revolutions of the Civil Rights, Black Power, abolitionism, the Black Panthers and Young Lords, boycotts and jarring artistic performances. These events are superficial not in vain sense, but key epicenters of underground murmurings, the workings of a cunning assailant. She robs not lavish estates, but another day to breathe. Gesturally, as perhaps the interlocutor, lies this author, interspersing his own diatribes to conjure her presence. The final branch is admittedly the most intangible. Kinesthetically, we map the nimbleness, footwork lígera of what I call the ethnopoet. Ethnopoet is no mere aggregate of ethnicity and poetry, but like chemical reaction, the descriptor for its behavior under certain pressures, temperatures, and elements. Elusive and resisting confinement, and therefore definition, the ethnopoet is a shapeshifting figure of how racialized bodies [people of color] respond to hegemonic powers. She is, at bottom, however, a native translator, the plural-lensed subject whose loyalty is only to the imagination of a different world, one whose survival is not contingent upon her exploitation. The native translator’s constant re-calibrations of oppressive power apparatuses seem taxing at best, and near-impossible, at worst. To effectively navigate through these polarized loci, she must identify ideologies that in turn seek “affective liberatory sances” in relation to the dominant social order (43). In a kind of performative contradiction, she must marshall the knowledge necessary to “break with ideology” while speaking within it. Chicana Studies scholar, Chela Sandoval, describes this dual movement as “meta-ideologizing”: the appropriation of hegemonic ideological forms in order to transform them (82). Nuestros padres se subieron encima de La Bestia, y por eso somos pasageros a ese tren. Y ya, dentro su pansa, tenemos que ser vigilantes cuando plantamos las bombas. In Methodology of the Oppressed, Sandoval schematizes this oppositional consciousness around five principle categories: “equal rights,” “revolutionary,” “supremacist,” “separatist,” and “differential.” Taken by themselves, the first four modes appear mutually exclusive, incapable of occupying the same plane, until a fifth pillar emerges. Cinematographic in nature, differential consciousness, as Sandoval defines it, is “a kinetic motion that maneuvers, poetically transfigures, and orchestrates while demanding alienation, perversion, and reformation in both spectators and practitioners” (44). For Sandoval, then, differential consciousness is a methodology that privileges an incredible sense mobility, one reaching artistic sensibilities. Our fourth and final analytic of movement serves an apt example of this dual meaning. Lexically speaking, ‘movement’ may be regarded as a political mobilization of aggrieved populations (through sustained efforts), or the process of moving objects (people or otherwise) from one location to another. Praxis-wise, it is both action and ideal, content and form. Thus, an ethnic poetics must be regarded less as a series of stanzas, shortened lyric, or even arrangement of language, but as a lens through which peripheralized peoples kaleidecope ideological positions in an “original, eccentric, and queer sight” (43). Taking note of the advantages of postponing identifications, the thesis stands its ground on the term ethnopoet. Its abstraction is not dewey-eyed philosophy, but an anticipation of poetic justice, of what’s to come from callused hands. This thesis is divided into 7.5 chapters. The first maps out the ethnopoet’s cartographies of struggle. By revisiting that alleged Tío Tomas, Richard Rodriguez, we unearth the tensions that negatively, deny citizenship to one silo, but on the flipside, engender manifold ways of seeing, hearing, and moving . The second, through George Jackson’s prison memoirs, pans out from this ethnography of power, groping for an apparatus that feigns an impervious prestige: ‘the aesthetic regime of coercion.’ In half-way cut, the thesis sidesteps to spic into existence, formally announcing, through Aime Cesaire, myself, and Pedro Pietri, the poeticization of trauma. Such uplift denies New Age transcendence of self, but a rehearsal of our entrapment in these mortal envelopes. Thirdly, conscious of the bleeding ethnic body, we cut open the incipient corpse to observe her pathologist. Her native autopsies offer the ethnic body’s posthumous recognition, the ethnopoetics ability to speak for and through the dead. Chapter five examines prolific black artists—Beyonce and Kendrick Lamar—to elide the circumvention of their consumption via invoking radical black hi/her-stories, ones fragmenting the black body. Sixth, the paper compares the Black Power Salute of the 1968 Mexico City Olympics to Duke’s Mi Gente Boycott of their Latino Student Recruitment Weekend. Both wielded “silent gestures,” that shrewdly interfered with white noise of numbed negligence. Finally, ‘taking the mask off’ that are her functionalities, the CODA expounds on ethnopoet’s interiority, particularly after the rapid re-calibration of her politics. Through a rerun of El Chavo del Ocho, one of Mexican television’s most cherished shows, we tune into the heart-breaking indigence of barrio residents, only to marvel at the power of humor to, as Friday’s John Witherspoon put it, “fight another day.” This thesis is the tip of my tongue. Y por una vez, déjala que cante.

Global Value Chain Analysis: A Primer, 2nd Edition

The first edition of Global Value Chain Analysis: A Primer was released five years ago (May 2011) in order to provide an overview of the key concepts and methodological tools used by Duke University’s Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness (Duke CGGC) a university-based research center that focuses on innovative applications of the GVC framework, which was developed by Duke CGGC’s founding director, Gary Gereffi. The Second Edition of Global Value Chain Analysis: A Primer (July 2016) retains a simple, expository style and use of recent research examples in order to offer an entry point for those wishing to better understand and use the GVC framework as a tool to analyze how local actors (firms, communities, workers) are linked to and affected by major transformations in the global economy. The GVC framework focuses on structural shifts in global industries, anchored by the core concepts of governance and upgrading. This Second Edition highlights some of the refinements in these concepts, and introduces a number of new illustrations drawing from recent Duke CGGC research. The bibliography offers a sampling of the broad array of studies available on the Duke CGGC website and in related academic publications. We hope this work stimulates continued interest in and use of the GVC framework as a tool to promote more dynamic, inclusive and sustainable development outcomes for all economies and the local actors within them.

An Economic Analysis of Global Policy Proposals to Prohibit Compensation of Blood Plasma Donors

© 2016 International Journal of the Economics of Business.Human blood plasma and its derivative therapies have been used therapeutically for more than 50 years, after first being widely used to treat injuries during World War II. In certain countries, manufacturers of these therapies – known as plasma-derived medicinal products (PDMPs) – compensate plasma donors, raising healthcare and ethical concerns among some parties. In particular, the World Health Organization has taken a strong advocacy position that compensation for blood donations should be eliminated worldwide. This review evaluates the key economic factors underlying the supply and demand for PDMPs and the evidence pointing to the policy options that are most likely to maintain a reliable supply of life-sustaining therapies. It concludes that compensated plasma donation is important for maintaining adequate and consistent supplies of plasma and limits the risk of under-treatment for the foreseeable future.

A Jaworskian analysis of four senior class primary teachers endeavouring to teach mathematics from a constructivist-compatible perspective

A constructivist philosophy underlies the Irish primary mathematics curriculum. As constructivism is a theory of learning its implications for teaching need to be addressed. This study explores the experiences of four senior class primary teachers as they endeavour to teach mathematics from a constructivist-compatible perspective with primary school children in Ireland over a school-year period. Such a perspective implies that children should take ownership of their learning while working in groups on tasks which challenge them at their zone of proximal development. The key question on which the research is based is: to what extent will an exposure to constructivism and its implications for the classroom impact on teaching practices within the senior primary mathematics classroom in both the short and longer term? Although several perspectives on constructivism have evolved (von Glaserfeld (1995), Cobb and Yackel (1996), Ernest (1991,1998)), it is the synthesis of the emergent perspective which becomes pivotal to the Irish primary mathematics curriculum. Tracking the development of four primary teachers in a professional learning initiative involving constructivist-compatible approaches necessitated the use of Borko’s (2004) Phase 1 research methodology to account for the evolution in teachers’ understanding of constructivism. Teachers’ and pupils’ viewpoints were recorded using both audio and video technology. Teachers were interviewed at the beginning and end of the project and also one year on to ascertain how their views had evolved. Pupils were interviewed at the end of the project only. The data were analysed from a Jaworskian perspective i.e. using the categories of her Teaching Triad of management of learning, mathematical challenge and sensitivity to students. Management of learning concerns how the teacher organises her classroom to maximise learning opportunities for pupils. Mathematical challenge is reminiscent of the Vygotskian (1978) construct of the zone of proximal development. Sensitivity to students involves a consciousness on the part of the teacher as to how pupils are progressing with a mathematical task and whether or not to intervene to scaffold their learning. Through this analysis a synthesis of the teachers’ interpretations of constructivist philosophy with concomitant implications for theory, policy and practice emerges. The study identifies strategies for teachers wishing to adopt a constructivist-compatible approach to their work. Like O’Shea (2009) it also highlights the likely difficulties to be experienced by such teachers as they move from utilising teacher-dominated methods of teaching mathematics to ones in which pupils have more ownership over their learning.

Forces of agglomeration and dispersal in rural business networks: a social network analysis

Two concepts in rural economic development policy have been the focus of much research and policy action: the identification and support of clusters or networks of firms and the availability and adoption by rural businesses of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). From a theoretical viewpoint these policies are based on two contrasting models, with clustering seen as a process of economic agglomeration, and ICT-mediated communication as a means of facilitating economic dispersion. The study’s conceptual framework is based on four interrelated elements: location, interaction, knowledge, and advantage, together with the concept of networks which is employed as an operationally and theoretically unifying concept. The research questions are developed in four successive categories: Policy, Theory, Networks, and Method. The questions are approached using a study of two contrasting groups of rural small businesses in West Cork, Ireland: (a) Speciality Foods, and (b) firms in Digital Products and Services. The study combines Social Network Analysis (SNA) with Qualitative Thematic Analysis, using data collected from semi-structured interviews with 58 owners or managers of these businesses. Data comprise relational network data on the firms’ connections to suppliers, customers, allies and competitors, together with linked qualitative data on how the firms established connections, and how tacit and codified knowledge was sourced and utilised. The research finds that the key characteristics identified in the cluster literature are evident in the sample of Speciality Food businesses, in relation to flows of tacit knowledge, social embedding, and the development of forms of social capital. In particular the research identified the presence of two distinct forms of collective social capital in this network, termed “community” and “reputation”. By contrast the sample of Digital Products and Services businesses does not have the form of a cluster, but matches more closely to dispersive models, or “chain” structures. Much of the economic and social structure of this set of firms is best explained in terms of “project organisation”, and by the operation of an individual rather than collective form of “reputation”. The rural setting in which these firms are located has resulted in their being service-centric, and consequently they rely on ICT-mediated communication in order to exchange tacit knowledge “at a distance”. It is this factor, rather than inputs of codified knowledge, that most strongly influences their operation and their need for availability and adoption of high quality communication technologies. Thus the findings have applicability in relation to theory in Economic Geography and to policy and practice in Rural Development. In addition the research contributes to methodological questions in SNA, and to methodological questions about the combination or mixing of quantitative and qualitative methods.

The quality of financial information in the extractive industries: a value relevance analysis

The extractive industry is characterized by high levels of risk and uncertainty. These attributes create challenges when applying traditional accounting concepts (such as the revenue recognition and matching concepts) to the preparation of financial statements in the industry. The International Accounting Standards Board (2010) states that the objective of general purpose financial statements is to provide useful financial information to assist the capital allocation decisions of existing and potential providers of capital. The usefulness of information is defined as being relevant and faithfully represented so as to best aid in the investment decisions of capital providers. Value relevance research utilizes adaptations of the Ohlson (1995) to assess the attribute of value relevance which is one part of the attributes resulting in useful information. This study firstly examines the value relevance of the financial information disclosed in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings reveal that the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports depends on the circumstances of the firm including sector, size and profitability. Traditional accounting concepts such as the matching concept can be ineffective when applied to small firms who are primarily engaged in nonproduction activities that involve significant levels of uncertainty such as exploration activities or the development of sites. Standard setting bodies such as the International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board have addressed the financial reporting challenges in the extractive industry by allowing a significant amount of accounting flexibility in industryspecific accounting standards, particularly in relation to the accounting treatment of exploration and evaluation expenditure. Therefore, secondly this study examines whether the choice of exploration accounting policy has an effect on the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports. The findings show that, in general, the Successful Efforts method produces value relevant information in the financial reports of profitable extractive firms. However, specifically in the oil & gas sector, the Full Cost method produces value relevant asset disclosures if the firm is lossmaking. This indicates that investors in production and non-production orientated firms have different information needs and these needs cannot be simultaneously fulfilled by a single accounting policy. In the mining sector, a preference by large profitable mining companies towards a more conservative policy than either the Full Cost or Successful Efforts methods does not result in more value relevant information being disclosed in the financial reports. This finding supports the fact that the qualitative characteristic of prudence is a form of bias which has a downward effect on asset values. The third aspect of this study is an examination of the effect of corporate governance on the value relevance of disclosures made in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings show that the key factor influencing the value relevance of financial information is the ability of the directors to select accounting policies which reflect the economic substance of the particular circumstances facing the firms in an effective way. Corporate governance is found to have an effect on value relevance, particularly in the oil & gas sector. However, there is no significant difference between the exploration accounting policy choices made by directors of firms with good systems of corporate governance and those with weak systems of corporate governance.

An Institutional, Socio-economic, and Legal Analysis of Fisheries Co-management and Regulation in the Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica

Marine Areas for Responsible Artisanal Fishing (AMPR) have emerged as a new model for co-managing small-scale fisheries in Costa Rica, one that involves collaboration between fishers, government agencies and NGOs. This thesis aims to examine the context for collective action and co-management by small-scale fishers; evaluate the design, implementation, and enforcement of AMPRs; and conduct a linguistic analysis of fisheries legislation. The present work relies on the analysis of several types of qualitative data, including interviews with 23 key informants, rapid rural assessments, and legal documents. Findings demonstrate the strong influence of economic factors for sustaining collective action, as well as the importance of certain types of external organizations for community development and co-management. Additionally, significant enforcement gaps and institutional deficiencies were identified in the work of regulating agencies. Legal analysis suggests that mechanisms for government accountability are unavailable and that legal discourse reflects some of the most salient problems in management.

Peter Lenaker preparing water samples for nutrient analysis

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.