Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Suggestive linkage of the parathyroid receptor type 1 to osteoporosis

We have investigated the role of 23 candidate genes in the control of bone mineral density (BMD) by linkage studies in families of probands with osteoporosis (lumbar spine [LS] or femoral neck [FN] BMD T score < -2.5) and low BMD relative to an age- and gender-matched cohort (Z score < -2.0). One hundred and fifteen probands (35 male, 80 female) and 499 of their first- or second-degree relatives (223 males and 276 females) were recruited for the study. BMD was measured at the LS and FN using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and expressed as age- and gender-matched Z scores corrected for body mass index. The candidate genes studied were the androgen receptor, type I collagen A1 (COLIA1), COLIA2, COLIIA1, vitamin D receptor (VDR), colony-stimulating factor 1, calcium-sensing receptor, epidermal growth factor (EGF), estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1), fibrillin type 1, insulin-like growth factor 1, interleukin-1 alpha (IL-1α), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-11 (IL-11), osteopontin, parathyroid hormone (PTH), PTH-related peptide, PTH receptor type 1 (PTHR1), transforming growth factor-beta 1, and tumor necrosis factors alpha and beta. Sixty-four microsatellites lying close to or within these genes were investigated for linkage with BMD. Using the program MapMaker/Sibs there was suggestive evidence of linkage between BMD and PTHR1 (maximum LOD score obtained [MLS] 2.7-3.5). Moderate evidence of linkage was also observed with EGF (MLS 1.8), COLIA1 (MLS 1.7), COLIIA1/VDR (MLS 1.7), ESR1 (MLS 1.4), IL-1α (MLS 1.4), IL-4 (MLS 1.2), and IL-6 (MLS 1.2). Variance components analysis using the program ACT, correcting for proband-wise ascertainment, also showed evidence of linkage (p ≤0.05) at markers close to or within the candidate genes IL- 1α, PTHR1, IL-6, and COLIIA1/VDR. Further studies will be required to confirm these findings, to refine the location of gene responsible for the observed linkage, and to screen the candidate genes targeted at these loci for mutations.

Risk analysis of prostate cancer in PRACTICAL, a multinational consortium, using 25 known prostate cancer susceptibility loci

Background Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with prostate cancer risk which explain a substantial proportion of familial relative risk. These variants can be used to stratify individuals by their risk of prostate cancer. Methods We genotyped 25 prostate cancer susceptibility loci in 40,414 individuals and derived a polygenic risk score (PRS).We estimated empirical odds ratios (OR) for prostate cancer associated with different risk strata defined by PRS and derived agespecific absolute risks of developing prostate cancer by PRS stratum and family history. Results The prostate cancer risk for men in the top 1% of the PRS distribution was 30.6 (95% CI, 16.4-57.3) fold compared with men in the bottom 1%, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2-5.5) fold compared with the median risk. The absolute risk of prostate cancer by age of 85 years was 65.8% for a man with family history in the top 1% of the PRS distribution, compared with 3.7% for a man in the bottom 1%. The PRS was only weakly correlated with serum PSA level (correlation = 0.09). Conclusions Risk profiling can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk of prostate cancer. The effect size, measured by OR per unit PRS, was higher in men at younger ages and in men with family history of prostate cancer. Incorporating additional newly identified loci into a PRS should improve the predictive value of risk profiles. Impact:We demonstrate that the risk profiling based on SNPs can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk that could have useful implications for targeted prevention and screening programs.

The first episode of psychosis: The experience of relatives

Objective The aim was to determine the extent of and the correlates of the distress and impact of care families of patients with first episode psychosis were experiencing when they first came for treatment. Method Subjects were 238 individuals who had presented with a first episode of psychosis and their family members. Family members were assessed with the Psychological General Well-Being Scale, and the Experience of Caregiving Inventory. Patient data included assessment of positive and negative symptoms, depression, quality of life, and substance use. Results Family members of these first-episode patients were experiencing distress and difficulties. It was the family's appraisal of the impact of the illness that was associated with their psychological well-being. Conclusion As the majority of these first episode families are keen to be involved early and have engaged in an intervention programme, the next step should be an evaluation of their involvement to determine if it is effective.

Not “just words”: Exposure to homophobic epithets leads to dehumanizing and physical distancing from gay men

We examined whether homophobic epithets (e.g., faggot) function as labels of deviance for homosexuals that contribute to their dehumanization and physical distance. Across two studies, participants were supraliminally (Study 1) and subliminally (Study 2) exposed to a homophobic epithet, a category label, or a generic insult. Participants were then asked to associate human related and animal-related words to homosexuals and heterosexuals. Results showed that after exposure to a homophobic epithet, compared with a category label or a generic insult, participants associated less human-related words with homosexuals, indicating dehumanization. In Study 2, we also assessed the effect of a homophobic epithet on physical distance from a target group member and found that homophobic epithets led to greater physical distancing of a gay man. These findings indicate that homophobic epithets foster dehumanization and avoidance of gay people, in ways that other insults or labels do not.

Association of microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) polymorphisms with breast cancer

Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates are increasing despite our current knowledge on the disease. Ninety-five percent of breast cancer cases correspond to sporadic forms of the disease and are believed to involve an interaction between environmental and genetic determinants. The microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) has been shown to regulate expression of genes involved in breast cancer development and progression. Study of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in this cluster gene could help provide a further understanding of its role in breast cancer. Therefore, this study investigated six SNPs in the MIR17HG using two independent Australian Caucasian case–control populations (GRC-BC and GU-CCQ BB populations) to determine association to breast cancer susceptibility. Genotyping was undertaken using chip-based matrix assisted laser desorption ionisation time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS). We found significant association between rs4824505 and breast cancer at the allelic level in both study cohorts (GRC-BC p = 0.01 and GU-CCQ BB p = 0.03). Furthermore, haplotypic analysis of results from our combined population determined a significant association between rs4824505/rs7336610 and breast cancer susceptibility (p = 5 × 10−4). Our study is the first to show that the A allele of rs4824505 and the AC haplotype of rs4824505/rs7336610 are associated with risk of breast cancer development. However, definitive validation of this finding requires larger cohorts or populations in different ethnical backgrounds. Finally, functional studies of these SNPs could provide a deeper understanding of the role that MIR17HG plays in the pathophysiology of breast cancer.

Counter-figures : An Essay on Antimetaphoric Resistance: Paul Celan's Poetry and Poetics at the Limits of Figurality

Titled "An Essay on Antimetaphoric Resistance", the dissertation investigates what is here being called "Counter-figures": a term which has in this context a certain variety of applications. Any other-than-image or other-than-figure, anything that cannot be exhausted by figuration (and that is, more or less, anything at all, except perhaps the reproducible images and figures themselves) can be considered "counter-figurative" with regard to the formation of images and figures, ideas and schemas, "any graven image, or any likeness of any thing". Singularity and radical alterity, as well as temporality and its peculiar mode of uniqueness are key issues here, and an ethical dimension is implied by, or intertwined with, the aesthetic. In terms borrowed from Paul Celan's "Meridian" speech, poetry may "allow the most idiosyncratic quality of the Other, its time, to participate in the dialogue". This connection between singularity, alterity and temporality is one of the reasons why Celan so strongly objects to the application of the traditional concept of metaphor to poetry. As Celan says, "carrying over [übertragen]" by metaphor may imply an unwillingness to "bear with [mittragen]" and to "endure [ertragen]" the poem. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first consists of five distinct prolegomena which all address the mentioned variety of applications of the term "counter-figures", and especially the rejection or critique of either metaphor (by Aristotle, for instance) or the concept of metaphor (defined by Aristotle, and sometimes deemed "anti-poetic" by both theorists and poets). Even if we restrict ourselves to the traditional rhetorico-poetical terms, we may see how, for instance, metonymy can be a counter-figure for metaphor, allegory for symbol, and irony for any single trope or for any piece of discourse at all. The limits of figurality may indeed be located at these points of intersection between different types of tropes or figures, and even between figures or tropes and the "non-figurative trope" or "pseudo-figure" called catachresis. The second part, following on from the open-ended prolegomena, concentrates on Paul Celan's poetry and poetics. According to Celan, true poetry is "essentially anti-metaphoric". I argue that inasmuch as we are willing to pay attention to the "will" of the poetic images themselves (the tropes and metaphors in a poem) to be "carried ad absurdum", as Celan invites us to do, we may find alternative ways of reading poetry and approaching its "secret of the encounter", precisely when the traditional rhetorical instruments, and especially the notion of metaphor, become inapplicable or suspicious — and even where they still seem to impose themselves.

Breastmilk-saliva interactions boost innate immunity by regulating the oral microbiome in early infancy

Introduction Xanthine oxidase (XO) is distributed in mammals largely in the liver and small intestine, but also is highly active in milk where it generates hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). Adult human saliva is low in hypoxanthine and xanthine, the substrates of XO, and high in the lactoperoxidase substrate thiocyanate, but saliva of neonates has not been examined. Results Median concentrations of hypoxanthine and xanthine in neonatal saliva (27 and 19 μM respectively) were ten-fold higher than in adult saliva (2.1 and 1.7 μM). Fresh breastmilk contained 27.3±12.2 μM H2O2 but mixing baby saliva with breastmilk additionally generated >40 μM H2O2, sufficient to inhibit growth of the opportunistic pathogens Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella spp. Oral peroxidase activity in neonatal saliva was variable but low (median 7 U/L, range 2–449) compared to adults (620 U/L, 48–1348), while peroxidase substrate thiocyanate in neonatal saliva was surprisingly high. Baby but not adult saliva also contained nucleosides and nucleobases that encouraged growth of the commensal bacteria Lactobacillus, but inhibited opportunistic pathogens; these nucleosides/bases may also promote growth of immature gut cells. Transition from neonatal to adult saliva pattern occurred during the weaning period. A survey of saliva from domesticated mammals revealed wide variation in nucleoside/base patterns. Discussion and Conclusion During breast-feeding, baby saliva reacts with breastmilk to produce reactive oxygen species, while simultaneously providing growth-promoting nucleotide precursors. Milk thus plays more than a simply nutritional role in mammals, interacting with infant saliva to produce a potent combination of stimulatory and inhibitory metabolites that regulate early oral–and hence gut–microbiota. Consequently, milk-saliva mixing appears to represent unique biochemical synergism which boosts early innate immunity.

Asymptotic behaviour of point processes with Markov-dependent intervals

This splitting techniques for MARKOV chains developed by NUMMELIN (1978a) and ATHREYA and NEY (1978b) are used to derive an imbedded renewal process in WOLD's point process with MARKOV-correlated intervals. This leads to a simple proof of renewal theorems for such processes. In particular, a key renewal theorem is proved, from which analogues to both BLACKWELL's and BREIMAN's forms of the renewal theorem can be deduced.

Three Sides of a Wall : Obstacles and Border States in Paul Auster's Novels

Tutkielmani käsittelee yhdysvaltalaisen kirjailijan Paul Austerin (s. 1947) romaanituotannossa esiintyviä esteitä ja rajatiloja. Erityisesti olen kiinnostunut siitä, miten Auster liittää nämä "marginaalitilat" amerikkalaiseen vapauden ja laajentumisen ideologiaan sekä kieleen ja kirjoittamiseen. Austerin romaaneissa esteiden ja rajatilojen käsittely voidaan jakaa kolmeen vaiheeseen. Ensimmäisessä vaiheessa henkilöt ovat vahvojen esteiden rajoittamia tai rakentavat niitä itse. Rajoittuneisuus ei kuitenkaan aina tunnu häiritsevän heitä - itse asiassa monet päähenkilöistä tuntevat itsensä onnellisiksi tai vähintäänkin tyytyväisiksi joutuessaan esteen takia pysähdyttämään vapaan liikkeensä. Toisessa vaiheessa henkilöt pyrkivät ylittämään tai rikkomaan esteen päästäkseen toiselle puolelle. Kuten amerikkalaiset esi-isänsä aikoinaan, he etsivät rajatonta, laajaa ja tyhjää tilaa - "suurta tuntematonta" valloitettavakseen. Tällaisen tilan kohdatessaan he joutuvat kuitenkin usein epävarmuuden valtaan. Kolmas vaihe on tutkielmani kannalta tärkein: välitila, josta käytän työssäni nimitystä "in-betweenity". Tähän vaiheeseen päästään kulkemalla ensin kahden muun vaiheen kautta. Juuri tietoisuus näistä kahdesta muusta vaiheesta synnyttää tämän kolmannen tilan, eräänlaisen rajatilan, jossa tajutaan sekä esteiden että esteettömyyden tärkeys. Tämä välitila on Austerille tyypillinen tila, joka kertoo paitsi amerikkalaisen unelman paradoksaalisuudesta myös (kaunokirjallisen) kielenkäytön prosessista. Monet Austerin kirjojen muurin rakentajista tai purkajista voidaan nähdä kirjailijahahmoina, joiden omituinen suhde esteisiin ja rajoihin kumpuaa juuri siitä rajatilasta, jonka asukkaita he kielentaiteilijoina väistämättä ovat. Tällaisen tilan/tilattomuuden kuvaaminen tekee Austerista oman postmodernin aikamme tärkeän kirjailijan - kirjailijan, joka sen sijaan, että pyrkisi eroon paradokseista, sijoittaa hahmonsa niiden sisään. Rajoihin ja esteisiin liittyvä problematiikka ei kuitenkaan ole pelkästään nykyajan ongelma vaan kysymys, joka ihmisen toisaalta rajoja kaipaavan toisaalta rajattomuutta kaipaavan luonteen vuoksi säilyy aina ajankohtaisena. Avainsanat: Paul Auster, este, muuri, raja, Yhdysvallat

The connection between Mueller and Jones matrices of polarization optics

A necessary and sufficient condition for the 4 × 4 Mueller matrix to be derivable from the 2 × 2 Jones matrix is obtained. This condition allows one to determine if a given Mueller matrix describes a totally polarized system or a partially polarized (depolarizing) system. The result of Barakat is analysed in the light of this condition. A recently reported experimentally measured Mueller matrix is examined using this condition and is shown to represent a partially polarized system.

Konstruktiivisen linjakkuuden perusteita etsimässä : Systemaattinen analyysi John Biggsin esittämistä yliopisto-opetuksen lähtökohdista

The aim of this study is to explore by systematic textual analysis the crucial conceptions of constructive alignment and to reconstruct the concept of constructive alignment and examine the relation between conceptual relationships in John Biggs’s texts. In this study, I have also analyzed the presuppositions of the concept of constructive alignment and its possible implications. The research material includes Biggs’s (1996b; 2003) article entitled Enhancing Teaching through Constructive Alignment and book entitled Teaching for Quality Learning at University. The primary purpose of the systematic textual analysis is to reconstruct concepts and gain access to a new or more profound understanding of the concepts. The main purpose of the constructive alignment is to design a teaching system that supports and encourages students to adopt a deep approach learning. At the center of the constructive alignment are two concepts: constructivism in learning and alignment in teaching. A tension was detected between these concepts. Biggs assumes that students’ learning activities are primed by the teaching. Because of this it is not important what the teacher does. At the same time he emphasizes that teaching interacts with learning. The teacher’s task is to support student’s appropriate learning activities. On the basis of the analysis, I conclude these conceptions are not mutually exclusive. Interaction between teaching and learning has an effect on student’s learning activities. The most essential benefit of the model of constructive alignment is that Biggs brings together and considers teaching at the same level with learning. A weakness of Biggs’s model relates to the theoretical basis and positions of the concept of constructive alignment. There are some conflicts between conceptions of epistemology in Biggs’s texts. In addition, Biggs writes about constructivism also as conceptions of epistemology, but doesn’t consider implications of that position or what follows or doesn’t follow from that commitment. On the basis of the analysis, I suggest that constructivism refers in Biggs’s texts rather to constructivism in learning than philosophical constructivism. In light of this study, constructive alignment doesn´t lead to philosophical constructivism. That’s why constructive alignment stays out of idealism. Biggs’s way of thinking about teachers possibility to confronting students’ misconceptions and evaluate and assess students’ constructions support a realist purpose in terms of philosophical stance. Realism does not drift toward general problems of relativism, like lack of criteria for assessing or evaluate these constructions.

Paul Blum calling card with photograph Portraits Men

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