957 resultados para J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
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The present work provides an ex-post assessment of the UK 5-a-day information campaign where the positive effects of information on consumption levels are disentangled from the potentially conflicting price dynamics. A model-based estimate of the counterfactual (no-intervention) scenario is computed using data from the Expenditure and Food Survey between 2002 and 2006. For this purpose fruit and vegetable demand is modelled employing Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) specification with demographic effects and controlling for potential endogeneity of prices and total food expenditure.
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A first phase of the research activity has been related to the study of the state of art of the infrastructures for cycling, bicycle use and methods for evaluation. In this part, the candidate has studied the "bicycle system" in countries with high bicycle use and in particular in the Netherlands. Has been carried out an evaluation of the questionnaires of the survey conducted within the European project BICY on mobility in general in 13 cities of the participating countries. The questionnaire was designed, tested and implemented, and was later validated by a test in Bologna. The results were corrected with information on demographic situation and compared with official data. The cycling infrastructure analysis was conducted on the basis of information from the OpenStreetMap database. The activity consisted in programming algorithms in Python that allow to extract data from the database infrastructure for a region, to sort and filter cycling infrastructure calculating some attributes, such as the length of the arcs paths. The results obtained were compared with official data where available. The structure of the thesis is as follows: 1. Introduction: description of the state of cycling in several advanced countries, description of methods of analysis and their importance to implement appropriate policies for cycling. Supply and demand of bicycle infrastructures. 2. Survey on mobility: it gives details of the investigation developed and the method of evaluation. The results obtained are presented and compared with official data. 3. Analysis cycling infrastructure based on information from the database of OpenStreetMap: describes the methods and algorithms developed during the PhD. The results obtained by the algorithms are compared with official data. 4. Discussion: The above results are discussed and compared. In particular the cycle demand is compared with the length of cycle networks within a city. 5. Conclusions
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This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.
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The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.
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The blue shark, Prionace glauca, is one of the most vagile shark species worldwide distributed. The particular body shape allows blue sharks make transoceanic movements, leading to a circumglobal distribution. Due to its reproductive cycle, an extraordinarily high number of specimens is globally registered but, even if it is still a major bycatch of longline fishery rather than a commercial target, it is characterized by a high vulnerability. In this perspective it is important to increase the amount of informations regarding its population extent in the different worldwide areas, evaluating the possible phylogeographic patterns between different locations. This study, included in the "MedBlueSGen" European project, aims exactly at filling a gap in knowledges regarding the genetic population structure of the Mediterranean blue sharks, which has never been investigated before, with a comparison with the North-Eastern Atlantic blue shark population. To reach this objective, we used a dataset of samples from different Mediterranean areas implementing it with some samples from North-Eastern Atlantic. Analyzing the variability of the two mitochondrial markers control region and cytochrome b, with the design of new species-specific primer pairs, we assessed the mitochondrial genetic structure of Mediterranean and North-Eastern Atlantic samples, focusing on the analysis of their possible connectivity, and we tried to reconstruct their demographic history and population size. Data analyses highlighted the absence of a genetic structuring within the Mediterranean and among it and North-Eastern Atlantic, suggesting that the Strait of Gibraltar doesn't represent a phylogeographic barrier. These results are coherent to what has been found in similar investigations on other worldwide blue shark populations. Analysis of the historical demographic trend revealed a general stable pattern for the cytochrome-b and a slightly population expansion for the control region marker.
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Objective High rates of suicide have been described in HIV-infected patients, but it is unclear to what extent the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has affected suicide rates. The authors examined time trends and predictors of suicide in the pre-HAART (1988—1995) and HAART (1996—2008) eras in HIV-infected patients and the general population in Switzerland. Method The authors analyzed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss general population. The authors calculated standardized mortality ratios comparing HIV-infected patients with the general population and used Poisson regression to identify risk factors for suicide. Results From 1988 to 2008, 15,275 patients were followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study for a median duration of 4.7 years. Of these, 150 died by suicide (rate 158.4 per 100,000 person-years). In men, standardized mortality ratios declined from 13.7 (95% CI=11.0—17.0) in the pre-HAART era to 3.5 (95% CI=2.5—4.8) in the late HAART era. In women, ratios declined from 11.6 (95% CI=6.4—20.9) to 5.7 (95% CI=3.2—10.3). In both periods, suicide rates tended to be higher in older patients, in men, in injection drug users, and in patients with advanced clinical stage of HIV illness. An increase in CD4 cell counts was associated with a reduced risk of suicide. Conclusions Suicide rates decreased significantly with the introduction of HAART, but they remain above the rate observed in the general population, and risk factors for suicide remain similar. HIV-infected patients remain an important target group for suicide prevention.
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Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.
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Background Chronic localized pain syndromes, especially chronic low back pain (CLBP), are common reasons for consultation in general practice. In some cases chronic localized pain syndromes can appear in combination with chronic widespread pain (CWP). Numerous studies have shown a strong association between CWP and several physical and psychological factors. These studies are population-based cross-sectional and do not allow for assessing chronology. There are very few prospective studies that explore the predictors for the onset of CWP, where the main focus is identifying risk factors for the CWP incidence. Until now there have been no studies focusing on preventive factors keeping patients from developing CWP. Our aim is to perform a cross sectional study on the epidemiology of CLBP and CWP in general practice and to look for distinctive features regarding resources like resilience, self-efficacy and coping strategies. A subsequent cohort study is designed to identify the risk and protective factors of pain generalization (development of CWP) in primary care for CLBP patients. Methods/Design Fifty-nine general practitioners recruit consecutively, during a 5 month period, all patients who are consulting their family doctor because of chronic low back pain (where the pain is lasted for 3 months). Patients are asked to fill out a questionnaire on pain anamnesis, pain-perception, co-morbidities, therapy course, medication, socio demographic data and psychosomatic symptoms. We assess resilience, coping resources, stress management and self-efficacy as potential protective factors for pain generalization. Furthermore, we raise risk factors for pain generalization like anxiety, depression, trauma and critical life events. During a twelve months follow up period a cohort of CLBP patients without CWP will be screened on a regular basis (3 monthly) for pain generalization (outcome: incident CWP). Discussion This cohort study will be the largest study which prospectively analyzes predictors for transition from CLBP to CWP in primary care setting. In contrast to the typically researched risk factors, which increase the probability of pain generalization, this study also focus intensively on protective factors, which decrease the probability of pain generalization.
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Aortic aneurysms and aortic dissection represent a significant health risk due to the demographic developments and current life styles. The mortality of ruptured aortic aneurysms is up to 80 % and the prevalence of aneurysms varies depending on the localization (thoracic or abdominal). Most commonly affected is the infrarenal abdominal aorta; however, there is evidence that the prevalence is diminishing but in contrast the incidence of thoracic aortic aneurysms is increasing. Aortic dissection is often fatal and is the most common acute aortic disease but the incidence is presumed to be underestimated. The pathogenesis of aortic aneurysms is manifold and is based on an interplay between degenerative, proteolytic and inflammatory processes. An aortic dissection arises from a tear in the intima which results in a separation of the aortic wall layers with infiltration of bleeding and the danger of aortic rupture. Various genetic disorders of connective tissue promote degeneration of the aortic media, most notably Marfan syndrome. Risk factors for aortic aneurysms and aortic dissection are nicotine abuse, arterial hypertension, age and male gender. Aortic aneurysms initially have an uneventful course and as a consequence are mostly discovered incidentally. The clinical course and symptoms of aortic dissection are very much dependent on the section of the aorta affected and the manifestations are manifold. Acute aortic dissection is in 80 % of cases first manifested as sudden extremely severe pain. The diagnostics and subsequent course control can be achieved by a variety of imaging procedures but the modality of choice is computed tomography.
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The conference on Global Change and the World’s Mountains held in Perth, Scotland, in 2010 offered a unique opportunity to analyze the state and progress of mountain research and its contribution to sustainable mountain development, as well as to reflect on required reorientations of research agendas. In this paper we provide the results of a three-step assessment of the research presented by 450 researchers from around the world. First, we determined the state of the art of mountain research and categorized it based on the analytical structure of the Global Land Project (GLP 2005). Second, we identified emerging themes for future research. Finally, we assessed the contribution of mountain research to sustainable development along the lines of the Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability Research (International Council for Science 2010). Analysis revealed that despite the growing recognition of the importance of more integrative research (inter- and transdisciplinary), the research community gathered in Perth still focuses on environmental drivers of change and on interactions within ecological systems. Only a small percentage of current research seeks to enhance understanding of social systems and of interactions between social and ecological systems. From the ecological systems perspective, a greater effort is needed to disentangle and assess different drivers of change and to investigate impacts on the rendering of ecosystem services. From the social systems perspective, significant shortcomings remain in understanding the characteristics, trends, and impacts of human movements to, within, and out of mountain areas as a form of global change. Likewise, sociocultural drivers affecting collective behavior as well as incentive systems devised by policy and decision makers are little understood and require more in-depth investigation. Both the complexity of coupled social– ecological systems and incomplete data sets hinder integrated systems research. Increased understanding of linkages and feedbacks between social and ecological systems will help to identify nonlinearities and thresholds (tipping points) in both system types. This presupposes effective collaboration between ecological and social sciences. Reflections on the Grand Challenges in Sustainability Research put forth by the International Council for Science (2010) reveal the need to intensify research on effective responses and innovations. This will help to achieve sustainable development in mountain regions while maintaining the core competence of mountain research in forecasting and observation.
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BACKGROUND: Morbidity and mortality of individuals co-infected with HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) is often determined by the course of their HCV infection. Only a selected proportion of those in need of HCV treatment are studied in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We analysed the prevalence of HCV infection in a large cohort, the number of individuals requiring treatment, the eligibility for HCV treatment, and the outcome of the combination therapy with pegylated interferon-a and ribavirin in routine practice. METHODS: We analysed prescription patterns of HCV treatment and treatment outcomes among participants from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with detectable hepatitis C viraemia (between January 2001 and October 2004). Efficacy was measured by the number of patients with undetectable HCV RNA at the end of therapy (EOTR) and at 6 months after treatment termination (SVR). Intention-to-continue-treatment principles were used. RESULTS: A total of 2150 of 7048 (30.5%) participants were coinfected with HCV; HCV RNA was detected in 60%, and not assessed in 26% of HCV-antibody-positive individuals. One hundred and sixty (12.5%) of HCV-RNA-positive patients started treatment. In patients infected with HCV genotypes 1/4 or 2/3, EOTR was achieved in 43.3% and 81.2% of patients, respectively, and SVR rates were 28.4% and 51.8%, respectively. More than 50% of the HCV-treated patients would have been excluded from two large published RCTs due to demographic, clinical and laboratory criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Despite clinical and psychosocial obstacles encountered in clinical practice, HCV treatment in HIV-coinfected individuals is feasible with results similar to those obtained in RCTs.
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Complete correction of Tetralogy of Fallot, the most common cyanotic congenital heart defect, has now become routine. However, late residual lesions, primarily chronic pulmonary valve insufficiency, may have a negative impact on right-ventricular function, leading to the need for reoperation to insert a competent valve at the right-ventricular outflow. The diagnostic modalities pertaining to the failing right ventricle, the timing for eventual reintervention and the various surgical reconstruction possibilities of the right-ventricular outflow tract are still controversial and evolving, and are reviewed with a brief overview on current trends and future outlooks.
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In the Tajik National Park (TNP) - a high-altitude area of nearly 26,000 km2 in Central Asia - past and present human activities visibly contrast with standard conservation requirements for protected areas worldwide. This paper focuses on resource management, and highlights three major processes that threaten both the sustainable use of natural resources and the preservation of nature per se: (i) intensified use of biomass as a fuel resource, (ii) inappropriate pasture management, and (iii) increased pressure on endangered wildlife. From analysis of these processes - their historical background, root causes, trends and interrelationships - options and needs to improve park management are proposed and discussed.
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With an official life time of over 5 years, Spine Tango can meanwhile be considered the first international spine registry. In this paper we present an overview of frequency statistics of Spine Tango for demonstrating the genesis of questionnaire development and the constantly increasing activity in the registry. Results from two exemplar studies serve for showing concepts of data analysis applied to a spine registry. Between 2002 and 2006, about 6,000 datasets were submitted by 25 centres. Descriptive analyses were performed for demographic, surgical and follow-up data of three generations of the Spine Tango surgery and follow-up forms. The two exemplar studies used multiple linear regression models to identify potential predictor variables for the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion, and to evaluate which covariates influenced the length of hospital stay. Over the study period there was a rise in median patient age from 52.3 to 58.6 years in the Spine Tango data pool and an increasing percentage of degenerative diseases as main pathology from 59.9 to 71.4%. Posterior decompression was the most frequent surgical measure. About one-third of all patients had documented follow-ups. The complication rate remained below 10%. The exemplar studies identified "centre of intervention" and "number of segments of fusion" as predictors of the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion surgery. Length of hospital stay among patients with posterior fusion was significantly influenced by "centre of intervention", "surgeon credentials", "number of segments of fusion", "age group" and "sex". Data analysis from Spine Tango is possible but complicated by the incompatibility of questionnaire generations 1 and 2 with the more recent generation 3. Although descriptive and also analytic studies at evidence level 2++ can be performed, findings cannot yet be generalised to any specific country or patient population. Current limitations of Spine Tango include the low number and short duration of follow-ups and the lack of sufficiently detailed patient data on subgroup levels. Although the number of participants is steadily growing, no country is yet represented with a sufficient number of hospitals. Nevertheless, the benefits of the project for the whole spine community become increasingly visible.
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How do prevailing narratives about Native Americans, particularly in the medium of film, conspire to promote the perspective of the dominant culture? What makes the appropriation of Indigenous images so metaphorically popular? In the past hundred years, little has changed in the forms of representation favored by Hollywood. The introductory chapter elucidates the problem and outlines the scope of this study. As each subsequent chapter makes clear, the problem is as relevant today as it has been throughout the entire course of filmic history. Chapter Two analyzes representational trends and defines each decade according to its favorite stereotype. The binary of the bloodthirsty savage is just as prevalent as it was during the 1920s and 30s. The same holds true for the drunken scapegoat and the exotic maiden, which made their cinematic debuts in the 1940s and 50s. But Hollywood has added new types as well. The visionary peacemaker and environmental activist have also made an appearance within the last forty years. What matters most is not the realism of these images, but rather the purposes to which they can be put toward validating whatever concerns the majority filmmakers wish to promote. Whether naïvely or not, such representations continue to evacuate Indigenous agency to the advantage of the majority. A brief historical overview confirms this legacy. Various disciplines have sought to interrogate this problem. Chapter three investigates the field of postcolonial studies, which makes inquiry into the various ways these narratives are produced, marketed, and consumed. It also raises the key questions of for whom, and by whom, these narratives are constructed. Additional consideration is given to their value as commodities in the mass marketplace. Typically the products of a boutique-multiculturalism, their storylines are apt to promote the prevailing point of view. Critical theory provides a foundational framework for chapter four. What is the blockbuster formula and how do the instruments of capital promote it? Concepts such as culture industry and repressive tolerance examine both the function and form of the master narrative, as well as its use to control the avenues of dissent. Moreover, the public sphere and its diminishment highlight the challenges inherent in the widespread promotion of an alternative set of narratives. Nonetheless, challenges to prevailing narratives do exist, particularly in the form of Trickster narratives. Often subject to persistent misrecognition, the Trickster demonstrates a potent form of agency that undeniably dismantles the hegemony of Western cinema. The final chapter examines some of the Trickster's more subtle and obscure productions. Usually subjugated to the realm of the mystical, rather than the mythical, these misinterpreted forms have the power to speak in circles around a majority audience. Intended for an Other audience, they are coded in a language that delivers a type of direction through indirection, promoting a poignant agency all their own.