Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

La reforma fiscal 2014 y la opinión de los asesores fiscales

La reforma fiscal en España ha sido una demanda recurrente en los últimos tiempos, posiblemente reforzada por la crisis económica. Esta fue aprobada a finales de 2014, entrando en vigor en 2015 y 2016. No se trata de una reforma global, habiéndose centrado en el IRPF y en el impuesto sobre sociedades. Este artículo repasa sus, a nuestro entender, aspectos más relevantes y, de manera novedosa, para identificar sus disfunciones, los contrasta con la opinión de los asesores fiscales, actores clave en nuestro sistema fiscal, dado el alcance mayoritario del mecanismo de autoliquidación. En general, se puede concluir que los trade-offs resueltos en esta reforma van en la dirección de elimi­nar, cuanto menos parcialmente, disfunciones previas, aunque, como se ha sugerido, hay aspectos todavía sin tratar (IVA o imposición sobre la riqueza).

Implantação das diretrizes curriculares nacionais para formação de professores de química em uma instituição federal de ensino superior: desafios e perspectivas

The Curricular Proposals for Chemistry Teaching Courses aim at producing a reflexive-researcher teacher, who will be able to deal with cross-disciplinary subjects. The challenge faced by the majority of the federal universities, in implementing these guidelines, is to attain these objectives inside their departmental structure. We present here the formulation of the Chemistry Teaching Course Pedagogic Project from Federal University of Pelotas concerning on the CNE/CP 1/2002 and 2/2002 Resolutions. We discuss the impact of these Proposals, the difficulties faced and the new perspectives of organization inside of these institutions, which resulted in new spaces with cross-disciplinary and cross-departmental orientation.

Implementação de um método robusto para o controle fiscal de umidade em queijo minas artesanal. Abordagem metrológica multivariada

This study developed and validated a method for moisture determination in artisanal Minas cheese, using near-infrared spectroscopy and partial-least-squares. The model robustness was assured by broad sample diversity, real conditions of routine analysis, variable selection, outlier detection and analytical validation. The model was built from 28.5-55.5% w/w, with a root-mean-square-error-of-prediction of 1.6%. After its adoption, the method stability was confirmed over a period of two years through the development of a control chart. Besides this specific method, the present study sought to provide an example multivariate metrological methodology with potential for application in several areas, including new aspects, such as more stringent evaluation of the linearity of multivariate methods.

O contexto formativo em uma instituição federal de ensino superior (IFES) em consolidação: visão dos alunos de fisioterapia

Este estudo proporciona uma apreciação do perfil dos alunos de Fisioterapia da Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, apurando possíveis causas de evasão, e analisa as opiniões destes em relação a sua formação e a esta nova Instituição Federal de Ensino Superior (Ifes) em expansão. Trata-se de um estudo observacional descritivo. Participaram 175 alunos. Os dados foram coletados por meio de um questionário com questões abertas, fechadas e do tipo Likert, que abordaram as áreas: pessoal, interpessoal, curso, carreira e institucional. Os alunos da cidade ou região representam 20% dos graduandos, e a renda familiar destes é variada. A maioria dos alunos escolheu estudar nesta Ifes por buscar um ensino superior de qualidade e gratuito. Após a conclusão do curso, 76% dos alunos pretendem fazer pós-graduação. Para a maioria, a estrutura física e o corpo docente são adequados ao aprendizado, mas a prestação de serviços não. Conhecendo as necessidades e expectativas dos alunos, podem-se propor soluções para melhoria e progresso de todos: alunos, curso, instituição e comunidade.

Avaliação das condições de segurança no trabalho nos setores florestais de uma Instituição Federal de Ensino Superior

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar os riscos ocupacionais a que se expõem os trabalhadores dos setores florestais de uma Instituição Federal de Ensino Superior do Estado de Minas Gerais, propondo medidas preventivas e corretivas que minimizem ou eliminem tais condições. A análise foi realizada com observações nos ambientes de trabalho e das Comunicações de Acidente em Serviço (CAS), verificando-se alto índice de acidentes no trabalho. Constatou-se a existência de fatores de riscos em todos os setores analisados, destacando o agente físico por ruído, o agente ergonômico por trabalhos com cargas excessivas e o risco de acidentes pelo uso de máquinas perigosas.

Inter-jurisdictional fiscal competition: a review of the literature and policy recommendations

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal competition. We consider tax and expenditure competition in a more general set up where different jurisdictions within a federation may compete in the provision of public goods in order to attract some residents (Tiebout, 1956) and expel others (Brueckner, 1999); and/or for business. We address the vast literature on welfare gains or losses of these types of competition. Then, we discuss the empirical evidence, focusing on estimates of the sensitiveness of production factors to tax differentials and on the importance of the strategic interdependence among jurisdictions. We combine econometric studies with some case studies. Last we discuss the design of mechanisms to cope with fiscal competition, especially under a more global environment where factors become more mobile.

Independência do banco central e equilíbrio fiscal: algumas observações para o caso brasileiro

The objective of this paper is to analyze the main theoretical arguments for the analysis of the conduction of monetary policy on the fiscal side. Besides this, an analysis is made of the possible effects on the fiscal balance from the conduction of the monetary policy in the search for price stability after the Real Plan and due to an increase in the central bank independence (CBI) in the Brazilian case. The findings denote that the strategy for the conduction of the adopted monetary policy and the increase in the degree of CBI did not contribute to an imrovement in the fiscal balance.

O efeito da liberalização da conta de capital sobre a política fiscal: uma avaliação do caso brasileiro recente

In recent years there has been some agreement that capital account liberalization have provided restriction on economic policies. This paper provides some evidence for Brazil. I find evidence that capital account liberalization provided limits to fiscal policy in Brazil and its effects can depend on exchange rate policy.

O comportamento da renúncia fiscal oriunda dos gastos privados com atenção à saúde entre os anos 1996 e 2003

This article presents an economic approach trying to get the interrelations between the private expenditures on health care and the tax expenditures. It shows an overview of the family's expenses on health care confronted to the total of the same item declared to Secretaria da Receita Federal (Income Tax) that was converted into tax expenditures.

Fiscal reform and federal relations: Brazilian deadlocks

Brazilian fiscal reform got to deadlocks because proposals tried to avoid considering federal relations. There are two main types of federal relations: the competitive and the cooperative. In both types is possible to observe coordination mechanisms. Brazilian federalism is a mixture of both types what leads to difficulties finding solutions. We argue that is more important to find mechanisms to facilitate cooperation than to discuss the qualities of any alternative fiscal structure. Fiscal reforms brings along a great deal of uncertainty. So it is important to discuss the reform timing and the compensation mechanisms before hand.

Ajuste fiscal no Brasil: algumas considerações de caráter pós-keynesian

Fiscal adjustment in Brazil: Some considerations under a post Keynesian approach. The article analyses the main issues concerned to fiscal policy in Brazil. For doing so, it assumes a Post Keynesian approach on this issue. First, it observes the origins of the Brazilian fiscal crises, showing that the Brazilian external debt had a fundamental role to play in its configuration. After, it analyses the present conduction of the fiscal policy in Brazil, emphasizing the orthodox framework that support it. Finally, the Post Keynesian approach on fiscal policy and the role of the State, as an element essential to reach a greater economic stability is discussed, showing that there are several experiences that seems to have a Keynesian bias, but that has little relation to Keynes approach, as is the case of Brazil.