A data collection case study supporting requirements oriented prediction and management in software developments

Consider the statement "this project should cost X and has risk of Y". Such statements are used daily in industry as the basis for making decisions. The work reported here is part of a study aimed at providing a rational and pragmatic basis for such statements. Of particular interest are predictions made in the requirements and early phases of projects. A preliminary model has been constructed using Bayesian Belief Networks and in support of this, a programme to collect and study data during the execution of various software development projects commenced in May 2002. The data collection programme is undertaken under the constraints of a commercial industrial regime of multiple concurrent small to medium scale software development projects. Guided by pragmatism, the work is predicated on the use of data that can be collected readily by project managers; including expert judgements, effort, elapsed times and metrics collected within each project.

Ideational change in the WTO and its impacts on EU agricultural policy institutions and the CAP

This paper argues that the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) introduced the market liberal paradigm as the ideational underpinning of the new farm trade regime. Though the immediate consequences in terms of limitations on agricultural support and protection were very modest, the Agreement did impact on the way in which domestic farm policy evolves. It forced EU agricultural policy makers to consider the agricultural negotiations when reforming the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The new paradigm in global farm trade resulted in a process of institutional layering in which concerns raised in the World Trade Organization (WTO) were gradually incorporated in EU agricultural institutions. This has resulted in gradual reform of the CAP in which policy instruments have been changed in order to make the CAP more WTO compatible. The underlying paradigm, the state-assisted paradigm, has been sustained though it has been rephrased by introducing the concept of multifunctionality.

Intentions of UK farmers toward biofuel crop production: Implications for policy targets and land use change

The United States and the European Union have set targets for biofuel production to decrease reliance on fossil fuels and to reduce fossil carbon emissions. Attainment of biofuel targets d6pends upon policy and infrastructure development but also on production of suitable raw materials. Production of relevant crops relies on the decisions that farmers make in their economic and political environment. We need to identify any farmer-related barriers to biofuel production and to determine whether novel policy and technology are required to meet targets. These aspects of the emerging biofuel industry are relevant across international barriers and have notyet been addressed quantitatively. We describe a case study from the UK of farmers' intentions toward producing two biofuel crops for which refining capacity either exists or is under construction. Given farmers' intentions, current land use, and conversion efficiency, we estimate potential biofuel production. These estimates indicate that EU targets are not achievable using domestically grown raw materials without policy intervention, use of alternative feedstocks, and either significant improvements in processing efficiency or largescale changes in land use.

Spatial and management factors associated with exposure of smallholder dairy cattle in Tanzania to tick-borne pathogens

A cross-sectional study of serum antibody responses of cattle to tick-borne pathogens (Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) was conducted on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania. Seroprevalence was highest for T. parva (48% in Iringa and 23% in Tanga) and B. bigemina (43% in Iringa and 27% in Tanga) and lowest for B. bovis (12% in Iringa and 6% in Tanga). We use spatial and non-spatial models, fitted using classical and Bayesian methods, to explore risk factors associated with seroprevalence. These include both fixed effects (age, grazing history and breeding status) and random effects (farm and local spatial effects). In both regions, seroprevalence for all tick-borne pathogens increased significantly with age. Animals pasture grazed in the 3 months prior to the start of the sampling period were significantly more likely to be seropositive for Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. Pasture grazed animals were more likely to be seropositive than zero-grazed animals for A. marginale, but the relationship was weaker than that observed for the other four pathogens. This study did not detect any significant differences in seroprevalence associated with other management-related variables, including the method or frequency of acaricide application. After adjusting for age, there was weak evidence of localised (< 5 km) spatial correlation in exposure to some of the tick borne diseases. However, this was small compared with the 'farm-effect', suggesting that risk factors specific to the farm were more important than those common to the local neighbourhood. Many animals were seropositive for more than one pathogen and the correlation between exposure to the different pathogens remained after adjusting for the identified risk factors. Identifying the determinants of exposure to multiple tick-borne pathogens and characterizing local variation in risk will assist in the development of more effective control strategies for smallholder dairy farms. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of seed mix and management on the abundance of desirable and pernicious unsown species in arable buffer strip communities

Buffer strips are refuges for a variety of plants providing resources, such as pollen, nectar and seeds, for higher trophic levels, including invertebrates, mammals and birds. Margins can also harbour plant species that are potentially injurious to the adjacent arable crop (undesirable species). Sowing perennial species in non-cropped buffer strips can reduce weed incidence, but limits the abundance of annuals with the potential to support wider biodiversity (desirable species). We investigated the responses of unsown plant species present in buffer strips established with three different seed mixes managed annually with three contrasting management regimes (cutting, sward scarification and selective graminicide). Sward scarification had the strongest influence on the unsown desirable (e.g. Sonchus spp.) and unsown pernicious (e.g. Elytrigia repens) species, and was generally associated with higher cover values of these species. However, abundances of several desirable weed species, in particular Poa annua, were not promoted by scarification. The treatments of cutting and graminicide tended to have negative impacts on the unsown species, except for Cirsium vulgare, which increased with graminicide application. Differences in unsown species cover between seed mixes were minimal, although the grass-only mix was more susceptible to establishment by C. vulgare and Galium aparine than the two grass and forb mixes. Annual scarification can enable desirable annuals and sown perennials to co-exist, however, this practice can also promote pernicious species, and so is unlikely to be widely adopted as a management tool in its current form.

Effects of seed mixture and management on beetle assemblages of arable field margins

Beetle assemblages and their response to plant community composition and architectural structure were monitored from 2002 to 2006 within arable field margins. Field margins were sown with either tussock grass and forbs, fine grass and forbs or grass only seed mixtures. After an establishment year, field margins were managed using standard sward cuts, scarification, or graminicide application. For predatory beetles, overall density was greatest where tussock grasses were included within the seed mixtures, while the densities of phytophagous beetles were greatest where forbs were present. Unexpectedly, species rarefaction curves suggested that phytophagous beetle species richness was greatest where field margins were established using a grass only seed mixture. The structure of the beetle assemblages, i.e., the relative abundances of individual species, was largely dependent on seed mixture, although margin management also played an important role. The results suggest that field margins established using seed mixtures containing tussock grasses and forbs would be expected to provide the greatest resources for beetles, at least at local scales. However, the use of a single standardised seed mixture for margin establishment would result in a homogenisation of beetle assemblages at a regional scale. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial carnivores and human food production: impact and management

1. The production of food for human consumption has led to an historical and global conflict with terrestrial carnivores, which in turn has resulted in the extinction or extirpation of many species, although some have benefited. At present, carnivores affect food production by: (i) killing human producers; killing and/or eating (ii) fish/shellfish; (iii) game/wildfowl; (iv) livestock; (v) damaging crops; (vi) transmitting diseases; and (vii) through trophic interactions with other species in agricultural landscapes. Conversely, carnivores can themselves be a source of dietary protein (bushmeat). 2. Globally, the major areas of conflict are predation on livestock and the transmission of rabies. At a broad scale, livestock predation is a customary problem where predators are present and has been quantified for a broad range of carnivore species, although the veracity of these estimates is equivocal. Typically, but not always, losses are small relative to the numbers held, but can be a significant proportion of total livestock mortality. Losses experienced by producers are often highly variable, indicating that factors such as husbandry practices and predator behaviour may significantly affect the relative vulnerability of properties in the wider landscape. Within livestock herds, juvenile animals are particularly vulnerable. 3. Proactive and reactive culling are widely practised as a means to limit predation on livestock and game. Historic changes in species' distributions and abundance illustrate that culling programmes can be very effective at reducing predator density, although such substantive impacts are generally considered undesirable for native predators. However, despite their prevalence, the effectiveness, efficiency and the benefit:cost ratio of culling programmes have been poorly studied. 4. A wide range of non-lethal methods to limit predation has been studied. However, many of these have their practical limitations and are unlikely to be widely applicable. 5. Lethal approaches are likely to dominate the management of terrestrial carnivores for the foreseeable future, but animal welfare considerations are increasingly likely to influence management strategies. The adoption of non-lethal approaches will depend upon proof of their effectiveness and the willingness of stakeholders to implement them, and, in some cases, appropriate licensing and legislation. 6. Overall, it is apparent that we still understand relatively little about the importance of factors affecting predation on livestock and how to manage this conflict effectively. We consider the following avenues of research to be essential: (i) quantified assessments of the loss of viable livestock; (ii) landscape-level studies of contiguous properties to quantify losses associated with variables such as different husbandry practices; (iii) replicated experimental manipulations to identify the relative benefit of particular management practices, incorporating (iv) techniques to identify individual predators killing stock; and (v) economic analyses of different management approaches to quantify optimal production strategies.