Predictability of nonstationary time series using wavelet and EMD based ARMA models

Research has been undertaken to ascertain the predictability of non-stationary time series using wavelet and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) based time series models. Methods have been developed in the past to decompose a time series into components. Forecasting of these components combined with random component could yield predictions. Using this ideology, wavelet and EMD analyses have been incorporated separately which decomposes a time series into independent orthogonal components with both time and frequency localizations. The component series are fit with specific auto-regressive models to obtain forecasts which are later combined to obtain the actual predictions. Four non-stationary streamflow sites (USGS data resources) of monthly total volumes and two non-stationary gridded rainfall sites (IMD) of monthly total rainfall are considered for the study. The predictability is checked for six and twelve months ahead forecasts across both the methodologies. Based on performance measures, it is observed that wavelet based method has better prediction capabilities over EMD based method despite some of the limitations of time series methods and the manner in which decomposition takes place. Finally, the study concludes that the wavelet based time series algorithm can be used to model events such as droughts with reasonable accuracy. Also, some modifications that can be made in the model have been discussed that could extend the scope of applicability to other areas in the field of hydrology. (C) 2013 Elesvier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do stable isotopes in carbonate cement of Mio-Pleistocene Himalayan sediments record paleoecological and paleoclimatic changes?

Non-pedogenic carbonates, such as carbonate cement and nodules in the sandstones, are quite common in the terrestrial geological record. Unlike pedogenic carbonates, their stable isotope ratios lack investigations for paleo-climatic reconstructions. The present investigation therefore, explores the possibility of use of stable isotope studies of non-pedogenic carbonates from the Mb-Pleistocene Siwalik Group of sediments exposed in the Ramnagar sub-basin of the NW Himalaya. Petrographic studies reveal the dominance of micrite fabric in carbonate nodules both of pedogenic and non-pedogenic samples irrespective of specific stratigraphic unit However, calcite as cement in the sandstones shows the dominance of micrite fabric in the younger in age sediments. Seventy-two non-pedogenic carbonate samples from the carbonate nodules and cement in the Siwalik sandstones, ranging in age between similar to 1 Ma and 12.2 Ma, were analyzed for delta C-13 and delta O-18 values. The delta C-13 values vary from -24.77 parts per thousand to -1.1 parts per thousand and delta O-18 values vary from -15.34 parts per thousand to -7.81 parts per thousand. Pedogenic and non-pedogenic carbonates ranging in age between similar to 1 Ma and 6 Ma have largely similar delta C-13 values and the range of delta C-13 values indicate the dominance of C-4 type of vegetation. However, unlike pedogenic carbonates which showed the dominance of C-3 type of vegetation pre- 7 Ma on the basis of delta C-13 -depleted isotopic values (Singh et al., 2011), delta C-13 values are largely enriched in the corresponding aged non-pedogenic carbonates revealing no information on specific type of vegetation. Likewise, paleoprecipitational reconstructions from delta O-18 values in pedogenic carbonates showed a progressive increase in aridity from similar to 12 Ma to recent excluding short term increases in rainfall/monsoon intensity at around 10 Ma, 5 Ma, and 1.8 Ma (Singh et al., 2012). On the contrary, such reconstructions are not possible from the delta O-18 values of non-pedogenic carbonates and indeed the delta O-18 values of non-pedogenic carbonates are largely depleted to as much as 6 parts per thousand from the corresponding pedogenic carbonates. Such differences in delta C-13 and delta O-18 values of non-pedogenic carbonates from pedogenic carbonates are primarily due to the dependence of the former on groundwater conditions responsible for precipitating carbonate. Further, a comparison of isotopic values between non-pedogenic and pedogenic carbonates can be interpreted that post-6 Ma and pre-6 Ma non-pedogenic carbonates were largely formed by shallow and deep groundwater conditions respectively. The result of these investigative studies therefore, suggests that the stable delta C-13 and delta O-18 values of non-pedogenic carbonates, unlike the pedogenic carbonates and irrespective of nature of calcite fabric, showed their little importance in paleoclimatic and paleoecological reconstructions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socio-cultural protection of endemic trees in humanised landscape

Culturally protected forest patches or sacred groves have been the integral part of many traditional societies. This age old tradition is a classic instance of community driven nature conservation sheltering native biodiversity and supporting various ecosystem functions particularly hydrology. The current work in Central Western Ghats of Karnataka, India, highlights that even small sacred groves amidst humanised landscapes serve as tiny islands of biodiversity, especially of rare and endemic species. Temporal analysis of landuse dynamics reveals the changing pattern of the studied landscape. There is fast reduction of forest cover (15.14-11.02 %) in last 20 years to meet up the demand of agricultural land and plantation programs. A thorough survey and assessment of woody endemic species distribution in the 25 km(2) study area documented presence of 19 endemic species. The distribution of these species is highly skewed towards the culturally protected patches in comparison to other land use elements. It is found that, among the 19 woody endemic species, those with greater ecological amplitude are widely distributed in the studied landscape in groves as well as other land use forms whereas, natural population of the sensitive endemics are very much restricted in the sacred grove fragments. The recent degradation in the sacred grove system is perhaps, due to weakening of traditional belief systems and associated laxity in grove protection leading to biotic disturbances. Revitalisation of traditional practices related to conservation of sacred groves can go a long way in strengthening natural ecological systems of fragile humid tropical landscape.

Virus-sized colloid transport in a single pore: Model development and sensitivity analysis

A mathematical model is developed to simulate the transport and deposition of virus-sized colloids in a cylindrical pore throat considering various processes such as advection, diffusion, colloid-collector surface interactions and hydrodynamic wall effects. The pore space is divided into three different regions, namely, bulk, diffusion and potential regions, based on the dominant processes acting in each of these regions. In the bulk region, colloid transport is governed by advection and diffusion whereas in the diffusion region, colloid mobility due to diffusion is retarded by hydrodynamic wall effects. Colloid-collector interaction forces dominate the transport in the potential region where colloid deposition occurs. The governing equations are non-dimensionalized and solved numerically. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the virus-sized colloid transport and deposition is significantly affected by various pore-scale parameters such as the surface potentials on colloid and collector, ionic strength of the solution, flow velocity, pore size and colloid size. The adsorbed concentration and hence, the favorability of the surface for adsorption increases with: (i) decreasing magnitude and ratio of surface potentials on colloid and collector, (ii) increasing ionic strength and (iii) increasing pore radius. The adsorbed concentration increases with increasing Pe, reaching a maximum value at Pe = 0.1 and then decreases thereafter. Also, the colloid size significantly affects particle deposition with the adsorbed concentration increasing with increasing particle radius, reaching a maximum value at a particle radius of 100 nm and then decreasing with increasing radius. System hydrodynamics is found to have a greater effect on larger particles than on smaller ones. The secondary minimum contribution to particle deposition has been found to increase as the favorability of the surface for adsorption decreases. The sensitivity of the model to a given parameter will be high if the conditions are favorable for adsorption. The results agree qualitatively with the column-scale experimental observations available in the literature. The current model forms the building block in upscaling colloid transport from pore scale to Darcy scale using Pore-Network Modeling. (C) 2014 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Role of degree of saturation in denitrification of unsaturated sand specimens

Nitrate contamination of groundwater arises from anthropogenic activities, such as, fertilizer and animal manure applications and infiltration of wastewater/leachates. During migration of wastewater and leachates, the vadose zone (zone residing above the groundwater table), is considered to facilitate microbial denitrification. Particle voids in vadose zone are deficient in dissolved oxygen as the voids are partially filled by water and the remainder by air. Discontinuities in liquid phase would also restrict oxygen diffusion and therefore facilitate denitrification in the vadose/unsaturated soil zone. The degree of saturation of soil specimen (S (r)) quantifies the relative volume of voids filled with air and water. Unsaturated specimens have S (r) values ranging between 0 and 100 %. Earlier studies from naturally occurring nitrate losses in groundwater aquifers in Mulbagal town, Kolar District, Karnataka, showed that the sub-surface soils composed of residually derived sandy soil; hence, natural sand was chosen in the laboratory denitrification experiments. With a view to understand the role of vadose zone in denitrification process, experiments are performed with unsaturated sand specimens (S (r) = 73-90 %) whose pore water was spiked with nitrate and ethanol solutions. Experimental results revealed 73 % S (r) specimen facilitates nitrate reduction to 45 mg/L in relatively short durations of 5.5-7.5 h using the available natural organic matter (0.41 % on mass basis of sand); consequently, ethanol addition did not impact rate of denitrification. However, at higher S (r) values of 81 and 90 %, extraneous ethanol addition (C/N = 0.5-3) was needed to accelerate the denitrification rates.

Sources of major ions and processes affecting the geochemical and isotopic signatures of subsurface waters along a tropical river, Southwestern India

Systematic monitoring of subsurface hydrogeochemistry has been carried out for a period of one year in a humid tropical region along the Nethravati-Gurupur River. The major ion and stable isotope (delta O-18 and delta H-2) compositions are used to understand the hydrogeochemistry of groundwater and its interaction with surface water. In the study, it is observed that intense weathering of source rocks is the major source of chemical elements to the surface and subsurface waters. In addition, agricultural activities and atmospheric contributions also control the major ion chemistry of water in the study area. There is a clear seasonality in the groundwater chemistry, which is related to the recharge and discharge of the hydrological system. On a temporal scale, there is a decrease in major cation concentrations during the monsoon which is a result of dilution of sources from the weathering of rock minerals, and an increase in anion concentrations which is contributed by the atmosphere, accompanied by an increase in water level during the monsoon. The stable isotope composition indicates that groundwater in the basin is of meteoric origin and recharged directly from the local precipitation during the monsoonal season. Soon after the monsoon, groundwater and surface water mix in the subsurface region. The groundwater feeds the surface water during the lean river flow season.

Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of initial degree of saturation on swell pressures of compacted Barmer bentonite specimens

Densely compacted bentonite or bentonite-sand mixture has been identified as suitable buffer in deep geological repositories as its exceptionally high swelling capacity enables tight contact between the waste canister and surrounding rock. The degree of saturation of the compacted bentonite buffer can increase upon ingress of groundwater from the surrounding rock mass or decrease from evaporation due to high temperature (50-210 degrees C) derived from the waste canister. Available studies indicate that the influence of initial moisture content or degree of saturation on the swell pressure or swell potential of compacted bentonites is unclear. Some studies suggest that initial degree of saturation has an influence, while others suggest that it does not have bearing on the swell pressure of compacted bentonites. This paper examines the influence of initial degree of saturation in montmorillonite voids (termed,S-r,S-MF) on swell pressure of compacted Barmer bentonite-sand mixtures (dry density range: 1.4-2 Mg/m(3)) from micro-structural considerations. The experimental results bring out that, constant dry density specimens that developed similar number of hydration layers upon wetting developed comparable swell pressures and were unaffected by variations in initial S-r,S-MF values. Comparatively, constant dry density specimens that developed dis-similar number of hydration layers upon wetting established different swell pressures and were responsive to variations in initial S-r,S-MF. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametric Studies on Saltwater Intrusion into Coastal Aquifers for Anticipate Sea Level Rise

Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers is a global issue, exacerbated by increasing demands for freshwater in coastal regions. This study investigates into the parametric analysis on saltwater intrusion in a conceptual, coastal, unconfined aquifer considering wide range of freshwater draft and anticipated sea level rise. The saltwater intrusion under various circumstances is simulated through parametric studies using MODFLOW, MT3DMS and SEAWAT. The MODFLOW is used to simulate the groundwater flow system under changing hydro-dynamics in coastal aquifer. To simulate solute transport MT3DMS and SEAWAT is used. The saltwater intrusion process has direct bearing on hydraulic conductivity and inversely related to porosity. It may also be noted that increase in recharge rate considered in the study does not have much influence on saltwater intrusion. Effect of freshwater draft at locations beyond half of the width of the aquifer considered has marginal effect and hence can be considered as safe zone for freshwater withdrawals. Due to the climate change effect, the anticipated rise in sea level of 0.88 m over a century is considered in the investigation. This causes increase in salinity intrusion by about 25%. The combined effect of sea level rise and freshwater draft (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluating Methods to Predict Streamflow at Ungauged Sites using Regional Flow Duration Curves: A Case Study

Precise information on streamflows is of major importance for planning and monitoring of water resources schemes related to hydro power, water supply, irrigation, flood control, and for maintaining ecosystem. Engineers encounter challenges when streamflow data are either unavailable or inadequate at target locations. To address these challenges, there have been efforts to develop methodologies that facilitate prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites. Conventionally, time intensive and data exhaustive rainfall-runoff models are used to arrive at streamflow at ungauged sites. Most recent studies show improved methods based on regionalization using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). A FDC is a graphical representation of streamflow variability, which is a plot between streamflow values and their corresponding exceedance probabilities that are determined using a plotting position formula. It provides information on the percentage of time any specified magnitude of streamflow is equaled or exceeded. The present study assesses the effectiveness of two methods to predict streamflow at ungauged sites by application to catchments in Mahanadi river basin, India. The methods considered are (i) Regional flow duration curve method, and (ii) Area Ratio method. The first method involves (a) the development of regression relationships between percentile flows and attributes of catchments in the study area, (b) use of the relationships to construct regional FDC for the ungauged site, and (c) use of a spatial interpolation technique to decode information in FDC to construct streamflow time series for the ungauged site. Area ratio method is conventionally used to transfer streamflow related information from gauged sites to ungauged sites. Attributes that have been considered for the analysis include variables representing hydrology, climatology, topography, land-use/land- cover and soil properties corresponding to catchments in the study area. Effectiveness of the presented methods is assessed using jack knife cross-validation. Conclusions based on the study are presented and discussed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimate of N2O release from pit-toilets

The use of pit-toilets has severely contaminated the groundwater with nitrate ions in Mulbagal town, Karnataka, India. This paper examines the potential of nitrate ions in the pit-toilet effluents to transform to N2O and to escape to atmosphere from 16 wards of Mulbagal town. Anaerobic conditions prevailing in the pit-toilet convert 25 % of the available N to ammonium ions. Only 3-33 % of ammonium ions transform to nitrate ions in the pit-toilet and escape with the effluent. During migration to aquifer, only 4.5 % of available nitrate concentration in the effluent transforms to N-2 and N2O gases in the 1.5-m-thick saturated zone underlying the pit-toilet; 36-55 % of the gases comprise N2O and the remainder of N-2. Further only 18 % of N2O formed escapes to atmosphere, while the remainder is retained in soil solution. Calculations show that 9.88 x 10(13) molecules of N2O/cm(2) would be cumulatively released from 16 wards of Mulbagal town, over an area of 4.9 km(2).

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.