Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Generalized canonical correlation analysis of matrices with different row and column orders

A Method is offered that makes it possible to apply generalized canonicalcorrelations analysis (CANCOR) to two or more matrices of different row and column order. The new method optimizes the generalized canonical correlationanalysis objective by considering only the observed values. This is achieved byemploying selection matrices. We present and discuss fit measures to assessthe quality of the solutions. In a simulation study we assess the performance of our new method and compare it to an existing procedure called GENCOM,proposed by Green and Carroll. We find that our new method outperforms the GENCOM algorithm both with respect to model fit and recovery of the truestructure. Moreover, as our new method does not require any type of iteration itis easier to implement and requires less computation. We illustrate the methodby means of an example concerning the relative positions of the political parties inthe Netherlands based on provincial data.

Training in flexible intensive insulin therapy improves quality of life, decreases the risk of hypoglycaemia and ameliorates poor metabolic control in patients with type 1 diabetes.

AIM: Intensified insulin therapy has evolved to be the standard treatment of type 1 diabetes. However, it has been reported to increase significantly the risk of hypoglycaemia. We studied the effect of structured group teaching courses in flexible insulin therapy (FIT) on psychological and metabolic parameters in patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We prospectively followed 45 type 1 diabetic patients of our outpatient clinic participating in 5 consecutive FIT teaching courses at the University Hospital of Basel. These courses consist of 7 weekly ambulatory evening group sessions. Patients were studied before and 1, 6, and 18 months after the course. Main outcome measures were glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), severe hypoglycaemic events, quality of life (DQoL), diabetes self-control (IPC-9) and diabetes knowledge (DWT). RESULTS: Quality of life, self-control and diabetes knowledge improved after the FIT courses (all p<0.001). The frequency of severe hypoglycaemic events decreased ten-fold from 0.33 episodes/6 months at baseline to 0.03 episodes/6 months after 18 months (p<0.05). Baseline HbA1c was 7.2+/-1.1% and decreased in the subgroup with HbA1c > or = 8% from 8.4% to 7.8% (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected, but relatively well-controlled population of type 1 diabetes, a structured, but not very time consuming FIT teaching programme in the outpatient setting improves psychological well-being and metabolic parameters.

Neural control of vascular reactions: impact of emotion and attention.

This study investigated the neural regions involved in blood pressure reactions to negative stimuli and their possible modulation by attention. Twenty-four healthy human subjects (11 females; age = 24.75 ± 2.49 years) participated in an affective perceptual load task that manipulated attention to negative/neutral distractor pictures. fMRI data were collected simultaneously with continuous recording of peripheral arterial blood pressure. A parametric modulation analysis examined the impact of attention and emotion on the relation between neural activation and blood pressure reactivity during the task. When attention was available for processing the distractor pictures, negative pictures resulted in behavioral interference, neural activation in brain regions previously related to emotion, a transient decrease of blood pressure, and a positive correlation between blood pressure response and activation in a network including prefrontal and parietal regions, the amygdala, caudate, and mid-brain. These effects were modulated by attention; behavioral and neural responses to highly negative distractor pictures (compared with neutral pictures) were smaller or diminished, as was the negative blood pressure response when the central task involved high perceptual load. Furthermore, comparing high and low load revealed enhanced activation in frontoparietal regions implicated in attention control. Our results fit theories emphasizing the role of attention in the control of behavioral and neural reactions to irrelevant emotional distracting information. Our findings furthermore extend the function of attention to the control of autonomous reactions associated with negative emotions by showing altered blood pressure reactions to emotional stimuli, the latter being of potential clinical relevance.

Survey of ear flies (Diptera, Ulidiidae) in maize (Zea mays L.) and a new record of Euxesta mazorca Steyskal in Brazil

Survey of ear flies (Diptera, Ulidiidae) in maize (Zea mays L.) and a new record of Euxesta mazorca Steyskalin Brazil. Species of Euxesta (Diptera, Ulidiidae), known as silk flies or ear flies, are becoming increasingly important as maize insect pests in South America, although very little is known about them in Brazil. The larvae of some species of this genus initially damage female reproductive tissues, and then the developing kernels on the ear. As a result of feeding, fermentation and associated odors cause complete loss of the grain because it is no longer fit for human or livestock consumption. The main objective of this work was to evaluate the incidence of Euxesta spp. in Brazilian maize fields and to determine the most prevalent species using two different hydrolyzed protein foods attractants, BioAnastrepha® (hydrolyzed maize protein) and Torula, placed inside McPhail traps. The two species identified were E. eluta Loew and E. mazorca Steyskal, the latter being a new record from Brazil. Between the two species, E. eluta was the more abundant in maize fields. Both attractants were efficient in capturing the two species. However, BioAnastrepha® captured significantly more insects than Torula.

Making land-use fit to planning goals. Weaknesses and opportunities within the Swiss land management regime

In Switzerland, the issue of land consumption has made it to the front of the political agenda in recent years. Studies conducted on a national level have concluded that there is an excess of land zoned for construction (ARE, 2008), which is seen as contributing to urban sprawl. This situation is looked upon as a failure of the Federal Law on Spatial Planning (LAT, 1979) and there is a political push to change it in order to reinforce zoning regulations. In this article, we look on the issue from a different angle. While there may be large quantities of land zoned for construction, in many urban areas land actually available for development is scarce. Building on the idea that planning's efficiency is linked to its capacity of influencing actual land-use, we focus on how this situation can be dealt with within the current Swiss institutional context.

Biomass estimation of Triplectides egleri Sattler (Trichoptera, Leptoceridae) in a stream at Ducke Reserve, Central Amazonia

ABSTRACT Biomass is a fundamental measure for understanding the structure and functioning (e.g. fluxes of energy and nutrients in the food chain) of aquatic ecosystems. We aim to provide predictive models to estimate the biomass of Triplectides egleri Sattler, 1963, in a stream in Central Amazonia, based on body and case dimensions. We used body length, head-capsule width, interocular distance and case length and width to derive biomass estimations. Linear, exponential and power regression models were used to assess the relationship between biomass and body or case dimensions. All regression models used in the biomass estimation of T. egleri were significant. The best fit between biomass and body or case dimensions was obtained using the power model, followed by the exponential and linear models. Body length provided the best estimate of biomass. However, the dimensions of sclerotized structures (interocular distance and head-capsule width) also provided good biomass predictions, and may be useful in estimating biomass of preserved and/or damaged material. Case width was the dimension of the case that provided the best estimate of biomass. Despite the low relation, case width may be useful in studies that require low stress on individuals.

Identification of optimal structural connectivity using functional connectivity and neural modeling.

The complex network dynamics that arise from the interaction of the brain's structural and functional architectures give rise to mental function. Theoretical models demonstrate that the structure-function relation is maximal when the global network dynamics operate at a critical point of state transition. In the present work, we used a dynamic mean-field neural model to fit empirical structural connectivity (SC) and functional connectivity (FC) data acquired in humans and macaques and developed a new iterative-fitting algorithm to optimize the SC matrix based on the FC matrix. A dramatic improvement of the fitting of the matrices was obtained with the addition of a small number of anatomical links, particularly cross-hemispheric connections, and reweighting of existing connections. We suggest that the notion of a critical working point, where the structure-function interplay is maximal, may provide a new way to link behavior and cognition, and a new perspective to understand recovery of function in clinical conditions.

Comparison of the polynomial model against explicit measurements of noise components for different mammography systems.

Given the adverse impact of image noise on the perception of important clinical details in digital mammography, routine quality control measurements should include an evaluation of noise. The European Guidelines, for example, employ a second-order polynomial fit of pixel variance as a function of detector air kerma (DAK) to decompose noise into quantum, electronic and fixed pattern (FP) components and assess the DAK range where quantum noise dominates. This work examines the robustness of the polynomial method against an explicit noise decomposition method. The two methods were applied to variance and noise power spectrum (NPS) data from six digital mammography units. Twenty homogeneously exposed images were acquired with PMMA blocks for target DAKs ranging from 6.25 to 1600 µGy. Both methods were explored for the effects of data weighting and squared fit coefficients during the curve fitting, the influence of the additional filter material (2 mm Al versus 40 mm PMMA) and noise de-trending. Finally, spatial stationarity of noise was assessed.Data weighting improved noise model fitting over large DAK ranges, especially at low detector exposures. The polynomial and explicit decompositions generally agreed for quantum and electronic noise but FP noise fraction was consistently underestimated by the polynomial method. Noise decomposition as a function of position in the image showed limited noise stationarity, especially for FP noise; thus the position of the region of interest (ROI) used for noise decomposition may influence fractional noise composition. The ROI area and position used in the Guidelines offer an acceptable estimation of noise components. While there are limitations to the polynomial model, when used with care and with appropriate data weighting, the method offers a simple and robust means of examining the detector noise components as a function of detector exposure.

Patient- and therapy-related factors on the wear of denture teeth : results of a clinical trial

OBJECTIVE: When we examined a previously published prospective multi-center clinical trial in which complete denture-wearers were followed over a period of 2 years, we found that about 30% of the variability in the clinical wear data of denture teeth was due to unknown characteristics of the subjects. In the second part of the study, we try to identify which patient- and therapy-related factors may explain some of this variability. METHODS: The clinical wear data of denture teeth at different recall times (6, 12, 18, 24 months) in 89 subjects (at baseline) were correlated with the following parameters, which may all have an influence on the wear of denture teeth: age, gender, bruxism as reported by the subjects, number of prostheses used so far, time since last extraction, smoking, fit of dentures as judged by the subject and the clinician, average denture wearing time and wearing of denture during the night. To evaluate the influence of the different patient- and therapy-related variables, both a univariate analysis (one extra factor to the model) and a multivariate analysis were carried out using linear mixed models with the variable Log mean as the outcome. RESULTS: None of the patient- and therapy-related parameters showed a statistically significant effect on the wear of denture teeth. There was, however, a trend for women to show less wear compared to men and a trend of decreasing wear with increasing age. SIGNIFICANCE: Further research is required to identify the factors which are responsible for the high variability observed between the subjects regarding clinical wear data.

Obese and fit adolescents have lower blood pressure levels than obese and unfit counterparts.

The aim of the study was to assess the effects of physical fitness on the relationships between body mass index (BMI) and body fat (BF) on blood pressure (BP) levels. Cross-sectional study conducted in 25 schools of Lisbon (Portugal), including 2041 boys and 1995 girls aged 10-18. BF was assessed by bioimpedance. Cardiovascular fitness was assessed by the 20-meter shuttle run and classified as fit/unfit. Obesity (BMI or BF defined) was defined according to international criteria. In both sexes, BMI was positively related with systolic and diastolic BP, while BF was only positively related with diastolic BP z-scores. No interaction was found between fitness and BMI categories regarding BP levels, while for BF a significant interaction was found. Being fit reduced the BF-induced increase in the Odds ratio (OR) of presenting with high BP: OR (95% confidence interval) 1.01 (0.73-1.40) and 0.99 (0.70-1.38) for overweight and obese fit boys, respectively, the corresponding values for unfit overweight and obese boys being 1.33 (0.94-1.90) and 1.75 (1.34-2.28), respectively. The values were 0.88 (0.57-1.35) and 1.66 (0.98-2.80) for overweight and obese fit girls, respectively, the corresponding values for unfit overweight and obese being 1.63 (1.12-2.37) and 1.90 (1.32-2.73) respectively. No interaction was found between fitness and BMI-defined overweight and obesity. Being fit reduces the negative impact of BF on BP levels and high BP status in adolescents. This protective effect was not found with BMI.

Reconsolidation of the soil surface after tillage discontinuity, with and without cultivation, related to erosion and its prediction with RUSLE

Site-specific regression coefficient values are essential for erosion prediction with empirical models. With the objective to investigate the surface-soilconsolidation factor, Cf, linked to the RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor, PLU, an erosion experiment using simulated rainfall on a 0.075 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, was conducted at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (EEA/UFRGS), in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Firstly, a row-cropped area was excluded from cultivation (March 1995), the existing crop residue removed from the field, and the soil kept clean-tilled the rest of the year (to get a degraded soil condition for the intended purpose of this research). The soil was then conventional-tilled for the last time (except for a standard plot which was kept continuously cleantilled for comparison purposes), in January 1996, and the following treatments were established and evaluated for soil reconsolidation and soil erosion until May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) fresh-tilled soil, continuously in clean-tilled fallow (unit plot); (b) reconsolidating soil without cultivation; and (c) reconsolidating soil with cultivation (a crop sequence of three corn- and two black oats cycles, continuously in no-till, removing the crop residues after each harvest for rainfall application and redistributing them on the site after that). Simulated rainfall was applied with a Swanson's type, rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at 63.5 mm h-1 intensity and 90 min duration, six times during the two-and-half years of experimental period (at the beginning of the study and after each crop harvest, with the soil in the unit plot being retilled before each rainfall test). The soil-surface-consolidation factor, Cf, was calculated by dividing soil loss values from the reconsolidating soil treatments by the average value from the fresh-tilled soil treatment (unit plot). Non-linear regression was used to fit the Cf = e b.t model through the calculated Cf-data, where t is time in days since last tillage. Values for b were -0.0020 for the reconsolidating soil without cultivation and -0.0031 for the one with cultivation, yielding Cf-values equal to 0.16 and 0.06, respectively, after two-and-half years of tillage discontinuation, compared to 1.0 for fresh-tilled soil. These estimated Cf-values correspond, respectively, to soil loss reductions of 84 and 94 %, in relation to soil loss from the fresh-tilled soil, showing that the soil surface reconsolidated intenser with cultivation than without it. Two distinct treatmentinherent soil surface conditions probably influenced the rapid decay-rate of Cf values in this study, but, as a matter of a fact, they were part of the real environmental field conditions. Cf-factor curves presented in this paper are therefore useful for predicting erosion with RUSLE, but their application is restricted to situations where both soil type and particular soil surface condition are similar to the ones investigate in this study.

Determination of testosterone misuse in sport, an international comparative study

Introduction: Urinary steroid profiling is used in doping controls to detect testosterone abuse. A testosterone over epitestosterone (T/E) ratio exceeding 4.0 is considered as suspicious of testosterone administration, irrespectively of individual heterogeneous factors such as the athlete's ethnicity. A deletion polymorphism in the UGT2B17 gene was demonstrated to account for a significant part of the inter-individual variability in the T/E between Caucasians and Asians. However, the anti-doping strategy includes the determination of carbon isotope ratio on androgen metabolites which has been demonstrated to be reliable for the direct detection of testosterone misuse. Herein, we examined the profiles and the variability in the 13C/12Cratios of urinary steroids in a widely heterogeneous cohort of professional soccer players residing in different world countries (Argentina, Italy, Japan, South-Africa, Switzerland and Uganda). Aim: The determination of threshold values based on genotype information and diet specific of the ethnicity is expected to enhance significantly the detection of testosterone misuse. Methods: The steroid profile of 57 Africans, 32 Asians, 50 Caucasians and 32 Hispanics was determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The carbon isotope ratio of selected androgens in urine specimens were determined by means of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). Results: Significant differences have been observed between all ethnic groups. After estimation of the prevalence of the UGT2B17 deletion/deletion genotype (African:22%; Asian:81%; Caucasian:10%; Hispanic:7%), ethnicspecific thresholds were developed for a specificity of 99% for the T/E (African:5.6; Asian:3.8; Caucasian:5.7; Hispanic:5.8). Italian and Swiss populations recorded an enrichment in 13C of the urinary steroids with respect to the other groups, thereby supporting consumption of a relatively larger proportion of C3 plants in their diet. Noteworthy, detection criteria based on the difference in the carbon isotope ratio of androsterone and pregnanediol for each population were well below the established threshold value for positive cases. Conclusion: These profiling results demonstrate that a unique and nonspecific threshold to evidence testosterone misuse is not fit for purpose. In addition, the carbon isotopic ratio from these different diet groups highlight the importance to adapt the criteria for increasing the sensitivity in the detection of exogenous testosterone. In conclusion, it may be emphasized that combining the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry including refined interpretation criteria for positivity and the subject-based profiling of steroids will most probably improve the efficiency of the confirmatory test.

Iowa’s Historic Automobile Roads A National Register Study of Pre-1948 Arterial Highways, 2009

This study of Iowa’s Historic Automobile Roads has been prepared by the Highway Archaeology Program under the terms of an annual cultural resource surveys contract between the Iowa DOT and The University of Iowa. Under this agreement, state transportation funds are appropriated by the Iowa DOT for The University of Iowa Highway Archaeology Program to locate and determine the significance of cultural resources in the area of proposed highway and transportation improvement work. Cultural resources include archaeological, historical, and architectural sites. The study of Iowa’s Historic Automobile Roads reported herein, including archival research and survey, was conducted between June 2002 and June 2007, by Marlin R. Ingalls and Maria F. Schroeder. The University of Iowa Highway Archaeology Program is solely responsible for the content and accuracy of these reports with respect to site location description, interpretation, and recommendations. Duplicate project reports are filed at the State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO), Community Programs Bureau in Des Moines. Illustrations in this report may have been altered for clarity and sized to fit the page.

Work motivation and pro-social behavior in the delivery of public services : theoretical and empirical insights

This Ph.D. dissertation seeks to study the work motivation of employees in the delivery of public services. The questioning on work motivation in public services in not new but it becomes central for governments which are now facing unprecedented public debts. The objective of this research is twofold : First, we want to see if the work motivation of employees in public services is a continuum (intrinsic and extrinsic motivations cannot coexist) or a bi-dimensional construct (intrinsic and extrinsic motivations coexist simultaneously). The research in public administration literature has focused on the concept of public service motivation, and considered motivation to be uni-dimensional (Perry and Hondeghem 2008). However, no study has yet tackled both types of motivation, the intrinsic and extrinsic ones, in the same time. This dissertation proposes, in Part I, a theoretical assessment and an empirical test of a global work motivational structure, by using a self-constructed Swiss dataset with employees from three public services, the education sector, the security sector and the public administrative services sector. Our findings suggest that work motivation in public services in not uni-dimensional but bi-dimensional, the intrinsic and extrinsic motivations coexist simultaneously and can be positively correlated (Amabile et al. 1994). Our findings show that intrinsic motivation is as important as extrinsic motivation, thus, the assumption that employees in public services are less attracted by extrinsic rewards is not confirmed for this sample. Other important finding concerns the public service motivation concept, which, as theoretically predicted, represents the major motivational dimension of employees in the delivery of public services. Second, the theory of public service motivation makes the assumption that employees in public services engage in activities that go beyond their self-interest, but never uses this construct as a determinant for their pro-social behavior. In the same time, several studies (Gregg et al. 2011 and Georgellis et al. 2011) bring evidence about the pro-social behavior of employees in public services. However, they do not identify which type of motivation is at the origin of this behavior, they only make the assumption of an intrinsically motivated behavior. We analyze the pro-social behavior of employees in public services and use the public service motivation as determinant of their pro-social behavior. We add other determinants highlighted by the theory of pro-social behavior (Bénabou and Tirole 2006), by Le Grand (2003) and by fit theories (Besley and Ghatak 2005). We test these determinants on Part II and identify for each sector of activity the positive or the negative impact on pro-social behavior of Swiss employees. Contrary to expectations, we find, for this sample, that both intrinsic and extrinsic factors have a positive impact on pro-social behavior, no crowding-out effect is identified in this sample. We confirm the hypothesis of Le Grand (2003) about the positive impact of the opportunity cost on pro-social behavior. Our results suggest a mix of action-oriented altruism and out-put oriented altruism of employees in public services. These results are relevant when designing incentives schemes for employees in the delivery of public services.