Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using radiative forcing from the task force on hemispheric transport of air pollution source-receptor global chemical transport model simulations. These simulations model the transport of 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, nitric oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). From the equilibrium radiative forcing results we calculate global climate metrics, global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) and show how these depend on emission region, and can vary as functions of time. For the aerosol species, the GWP(100) values are −37±12, −46±20, and 350±200 for SO2, POM and BC respectively for the direct effects only. The corresponding GTP(100) values are −5.2±2.4, −6.5±3.5, and 50±33. This analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands. This shows that the latitudinal pattern of the temperature response to emissions of the NTCFs does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. For instance temperatures in the Arctic latitudes are particularly sensitive to NTCF emissions in the northern mid-latitudes. At the 100-yr time horizon the ARTPs show NOx emissions can have a warming effect in the northern mid and high latitudes, but cooling in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions of most NTCFs is approximately twice as large as would be implied by the global average.

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century

The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project evaluation of the terrestrial water cycle involves using land surface models and general hydrological models to assess hydrologically important variables including evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff. Such models require meteorological forcing data, and this paper describes the creation of the WATCH Forcing Data for 1958–2001 based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and for 1901–57 based on reordered reanalysis data. It also discusses and analyses modelindependent estimates of reference crop evaporation. Global average annual cumulative reference crop evaporation was selected as a widely adopted measure of potential evapotranspiration. It exhibits no significant trend from 1979 to 2001 although there are significant long-term increases in global average vapor pressure deficit and concurrent significant decreases in global average net radiation and wind speed. The near-constant global average of annual reference crop evaporation in the late twentieth century masks significant decreases in some regions (e.g., the Murray–Darling basin) with significant increases in others.

Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

High resolution surface wind fields covering the global ocean, estimated from remotely sensed wind data and ECMWF wind analyses, have been available since 2005 with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees in longitude and latitude, and a temporal resolution of 6h. Their quality is investigated through various comparisons with surface wind vectors from 190 buoys moored in various oceanic basins, from research vessels and from QuikSCAT scatterometer data taken during 2005-2006. The NCEP/NCAR and NCDC blended wind products are also considered. The comparisons performed during January-December 2005 show that speeds and directions compare well to in-situ observations, including from moored buoys and ships, as well as to the remotely sensed data. The root-mean-squared differences of the wind speed and direction for the new blended wind data are lower than 2m/s and 30 degrees, respectively. These values are similar to those estimated in the comparisons of hourly buoy measurements and QuickSCAT near real time retrievals. At global scale, it is found that the new products compare well with the wind speed and wind vector components observed by QuikSCAT. No significant dependencies on the QuikSCAT wind speed or on the oceanic region considered are evident.Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: initialization month dependence

Seasonal-to-interannual predictions of Arctic sea ice may be important for Arctic communities and industries alike. Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea ice is potentially predictable but that the skill of predictions of the September extent minimum, initialized in early summer, may be low. The authors demonstrate that a melt season “predictability barrier” and two predictability reemergence mechanisms, suggested by a previous study, are robust features of five global climate models. Analysis of idealized predictions with one of these models [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 1.2 (HadGEM1.2)], initialized in January, May and July, demonstrates that this predictability barrier exists in initialized forecasts as well. As a result, the skill of sea ice extent and volume forecasts are strongly start date dependent and those that are initialized in May lose skill much faster than those initialized in January or July. Thus, in an operational setting, initializing predictions of extent and volume in July has strong advantages for the prediction of the September minimum when compared to predictions initialized in May. Furthermore, a regional analysis of sea ice predictability indicates that extent is predictable for longer in the seasonal ice zones of the North Atlantic and North Pacific than in the regions dominated by perennial ice in the central Arctic and marginal seas. In a number of the Eurasian shelf seas, which are important for Arctic shipping, only the forecasts initialized in July have continuous skill during the first summer. In contrast, predictability of ice volume persists for over 2 yr in the central Arctic but less in other regions.

Integrating science into humanitarian and development planning and practice to enhance community resilience

There has been an increased emphasis upon the application of science for humanitarian and development planning, decision-making and practice; particularly in the context of understanding, assessing and anticipating risk (e.g. HERR, 2011). However, there remains very little guidance for practitioners on how to integrate sciences they may have had little contact with in the past (e.g. climate). This has led to confusion as to which ‘science’ might be of use and how it would be best utilised. Furthermore, since this integration has stemmed from a need to be more predictive, agencies are struggling with the problems associated with uncertainty and probability. Whilst a range of expertise is required to build resilience, these guidelines focus solely upon the relevant data, information, knowledge, methods, principles and perspective which scientists can provide, that typically lie outside of current humanitarian and development approaches. Using checklists, real-life case studies and scenarios the full guidelines take practitioners through a five step approach to finding, understanding and applying science. This document provides a short summary of the five steps and some key lessons for integrating science.

Variation on the effects of the 2003 CAP reform and regional differences in the Italian olive oil sector

This paper analyses the impacts of the 2003 CAP reform on the production of Italian olive oil controlling for the regional differences in olive oil production as well as for the differences between years. Italian olive oil production time series data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network for the 2000-2010 period at regional level is used to examine the effect of the 2003 Fischler reform on the production of olive oil. Production costs and payments received by farmers to support their income are considered. The data were collected at micro level based on a sample of farms representative of the production systems in the country. In order to consider the differences in production among the regions, eight representative regions in terms of surveyed farms are considered: Liguria, Toscana, Umbria, Lazio, Campania, Calabria, Puglia and Sicilia. We found that the most important factors affecting the production of olive oil are the area under olive groves and labour productivity. Results also show no evidence that the level of payments have an impact to the level of production, however, the type of payments has. Future work should explore the impact of the 2003 reform into the technical and production efficiency of the Italian olive oil farmers. It would be interesting to link the measures introduced by the cross compliance and the management practices of the different farms to have a more complete picture of the various parameters influencing the production of olive oil.

Genetic algorithm inversion of the average 1D crustal structure using local and regional earthquakes

Knowing the best 1D model of the crustal and upper mantle structure is useful not only for routine hypocenter determination, but also for linearized joint inversions of hypocenters and 3D crustal structure, where a good choice of the initial model can be very important. Here, we tested the combination of a simple GA inversion with the widely used HYPO71 program to find the best three-layer model (upper crust, lower crust, and upper mantle) by minimizing the overall P- and S-arrival residuals, using local and regional earthquakes in two areas of the Brazilian shield. Results from the Tocantins Province (Central Brazil) and the southern border of the Sao Francisco craton (SE Brazil) indicated an average crustal thickness of 38 and 43 km, respectively, consistent with previous estimates from receiver functions and seismic refraction lines. The GA + HYPO71 inversion produced correct Vp/Vs ratios (1.73 and 1.71, respectively), as expected from Wadati diagrams. Tests with synthetic data showed that the method is robust for the crustal thickness, Pn velocity, and Vp/Vs ratio when using events with distance up to about 400 km, despite the small number of events available (7 and 22, respectively). The velocities of the upper and lower crusts, however, are less well constrained. Interestingly, in the Tocantins Province, the GA + HYPO71 inversion showed a secondary solution (local minimum) for the average crustal thickness, besides the global minimum solution, which was caused by the existence of two distinct domains in the Central Brazil with very different crustal thicknesses. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trade Liberalization and Regional Impacts on Residual Wage Inequality: Evidence from Brazil

O objetivo deste trabalho é entender mais sobre o papel da liberalização sobre a desigualdade salarial, mais precisamente, sobre a desigualdade residual dos salários. Usando a abertura comercial brasileira, a extensa redução tarifária que ocorreu entre 1987 e 1995, é investigado empiricamente se os diferentes níveis de exposição ao comércio entre os estados contribuíram para os diferentes movimentos da desigualdade. Os resultados indicam que estados mais expostos à liberalização comercial experimentaram um aumento relativo da desigualdade residual dos salários ou, de forma equivalente, uma menor redução. Estes resultados enriquecem a discussão dos efeitos da abertura comercial sobre a desigualdade.

Contra as Secas: a engenharia e as origens de um planejamento regional no nordeste brasileiro

Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts

Os embates entre ciência e política na experiência parlamentar de Josué de Castro

This study want to know how Josué de Castro, the two terms of a congressman, participated in the Brazilian political-ideological debate of the 1950s. For this, search the 61 speeches in the plenary of the House of Representatives and its 14 projects, analyzing them as historical documents that describe an experience, which enables the central category amalgamated the subject and his time, which breaks up the possibilities of new social practices. Unity of action and reflection, the experience of Castro in the Brazilian parliament has got on the basis of a previous flow experiences in the political-institutional and scientific. Together with the personal history, the political intellectual scenario of his time was another variable considered in the first chapter of this work. In the second chapter did an analysis of 32 speeches and projects of the first term of Josué de Castro, grouping them by thematic affinities. The 43 for the second term were discussed in the third chapter, leaving the final considerations answer the research objectives: What are the main interlocutors? What are your political positions? What are the points of rupture and continuity in his political career? Josué de Castro spoke to the Brazilian state directly to the president, some ministers and to the SUDENE, the ONU appears indirectly through the reports of his participations. His political position was a national-developmentalist who embraced the cause of self-determination of the countries, anti-imperialism, agrarian reform and regional planning, strongly inspired by Celso Furtado and San Tiago Dantas. Castro often has blended a liberal and Marxist terminology, relying on different ideologies to do support his fight against hunger