Thermobaric control of gravitational potential energy generation by diapycnal mixing in the deep ocean

Sources and sinks of gravitational potential energy (GPE) play a rate-limiting role in the large scale ocean circulation. A key source is turbulent diapycnal mixing, whereby irre- versible mixing across isoneutral surfaces is enhanced by turbulent straining of these surfaces. This has motivated international observational efforts to map diapycnal mixing in the global ocean. However, in order to accurately relate the GPE supplied to the large scale circulation by diapycnal mixing to the mixing energy source, it is first necessary to determine the ratio, ξ , of the GPE generation rate to the available potential energy dissipation rate associated with turbulent mixing. Here, the link between GPE and hydro- static pressure is used to derive the GPE budget for a com- pressible ocean with a nonlinear equation of state. The role of diapycnal mixing is isolated and from this a global cli- matological distribution of ξ is calculated. It is shown that, for a given source of mixing energy, typically three times as much GPE is generated if the mixing takes place in bottom waters rather than in the pycnocline. This is due to GPE destruction by cabbelling in the pycnocline, as opposed to thermobaric enhancement of GPE generation by diapycnal mixing in the deep ocean.

Generation of a buoyancy-driven coastal current by an Antarctic Polynya

Descent and spreading of high salinity water generated by salt rejection during sea ice formation in an Antarctic coastal polynya is studied using a hydrostatic, primitive equation three-dimensional ocean model called the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modeling System (POLCOMS). The shape of the polynya is assumed to be a rectangle 100 km long and 30 km wide, and the salinity flux into the polynya at its surface is constant. The model has been run at high horizontal spatial resolution (500 m), and numerical simulations reveal a buoyancy-driven coastal current. The coastal current is a robust feature and appears in a range of simulations designed to investigate the influence of a sloping bottom, variable bottom drag, variable vertical turbulent diffusivities, higher salinity flux, and an offshore position of the polynya. It is shown that bottom drag is the main factor determining the current width. This coastal current has not been produced with other numerical models of polynyas, which may be because these models were run at coarser resolutions. The coastal current becomes unstable upstream of its front when the polynya is adjacent to the coast. When the polynya is situated offshore, an unstable current is produced from its outset owing to the capture of cyclonic eddies. The effect of a coastal protrusion and a canyon on the current motion is investigated. In particular, due to the convex shape of the coastal protrusion, the current sheds a dipolar eddy.

Continuum sea ice rheology determined from subcontinuum mechanics

[1] A method is presented to calculate the continuum-scale sea ice stress as an imposed, continuum-scale strain-rate is varied. The continuum-scale stress is calculated as the area-average of the stresses within the floes and leads in a region (the continuum element). The continuum-scale stress depends upon: the imposed strain rate; the subcontinuum scale, material rheology of sea ice; the chosen configuration of sea ice floes and leads; and a prescribed rule for determining the motion of the floes in response to the continuum-scale strain-rate. We calculated plastic yield curves and flow rules associated with subcontinuum scale, material sea ice rheologies with elliptic, linear and modified Coulombic elliptic plastic yield curves, and with square, diamond and irregular, convex polygon-shaped floes. For the case of a tiling of square floes, only for particular orientations of the leads have the principal axes of strain rate and calculated continuum-scale sea ice stress aligned, and these have been investigated analytically. The ensemble average of calculated sea ice stress for square floes with uniform orientation with respect to the principal axes of strain rate yielded alignment of average stress and strain-rate principal axes and an isotropic, continuum-scale sea ice rheology. We present a lemon-shaped yield curve with normal flow rule, derived from ensemble averages of sea ice stress, suitable for direct inclusion into the current generation of sea ice models. This continuum-scale sea ice rheology directly relates the size (strength) of the continuum-scale yield curve to the material compressive strength.

Modern pollen samples from alpine vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau.

1  A set of 316 modern surface pollen samples, sampling all the alpine vegetation types that occur on the Tibetan Plateau, has been compiled and analysed. Between 82 and 92% of the pollen present in these samples is derived from only 28 major taxa. These 28 taxa include examples of both tree (AP) and herb (NAP) pollen types. 2  Most of the modern surface pollen samples accurately reflect the composition of the modern vegetation in the sampling region. However, airborne dust-trap pollen samples do not provide a reliable assessment of the modern vegetation. Dust-trap samples contain much higher percentages of tree pollen than non-dust-trap samples, and many of the taxa present are exotic. In the extremely windy environments of the Tibetan Plateau, contamination of dust-trap samples by long-distance transport of exotic pollen is a serious problem. 3  The most characteristic vegetation types present on the Tibetan Plateau are alpine meadows, steppe and desert. Non-arboreal pollen (NAP) therefore dominates the pollen samples in most regions. Percentages of arboreal pollen (AP) are high in samples from the southern and eastern Tibetan Plateau, where alpine forests are an important component of the vegetation. The relative importance of forest and non-forest vegetation across the Plateau clearly follows climatic gradients: forests occur on the southern and eastern margins of the Plateau, supported by the penetration of moisture-bearing airmasses associated with the Indian and Pacific summer monsoons; open, treeless vegetation is dominant in the interior and northern margins of the Plateau, far from these moisture sources. 4  The different types of non-forest vegetation are characterized by different modern pollen assemblages. Thus, alpine deserts are characterized by high percentages of Chenopodiaceae and Artemisia, with Ephedra and Nitraria. Alpine meadows are characterized by high percentages of Cyperaceae and Artemisia, with Ranunculaceae and Polygonaceae. Alpine steppe is characterized by high abundances of Artemisia, with Compositae, Cruciferae and Chenopodiaceae. Although Artemisia is a common component of all non-forest vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau, the presence of other taxa makes it possible to discriminate between the different vegetation types. 5  The good agreement between modern vegetation and modern surface pollen samples across the Tibetan Plateau provides a measure of the reliability of using pollen data to reconstruct past vegetation patterns in non-forested areas.

Genetic analysis reveals a novel locus in Vicia faba decoupling pigmentation in the flower from that in the extra-floral nectaries

The genetics of the stipule spot pigmentation (SSP) in faba bean (Vicia faba L.) was studied using four inbred lines, of which Disco/2 was zero-tannin (zt2) with colourless stipule spots, ILB938/2 was normal-tannin (ZT2) with colourless stipule spots, and both Aurora/2 and Mélodie/2 were ZT2 with coloured stipule spots. Crosses Mélodie/2 × ILB 938/2, Mélodie/2 × Disco/2, ILB 938/2 × Aurora/2 and ILB 938/2 × Disco/2 (A, B, C and D, respectively) were prepared, along with reciprocals and backcrosses, and advanced through single-seed descent. All F1 hybrid plants had pigmented stipule spots, and in the F2 generation, the segregation ratio fit 3 coloured:1 colourless in crosses A, B and C and 9:7 in cross D. In the F3 generation, the ratio fit 5:3 in crosses A and C and 25:39 in cross D, and in the F4 generation, 9:7 in cross A. SSP was linked to the zero-tannin characteristics (white flower) only in cross B. The results show that coloured stipule spot is dominant to colourless and that colouration is determined by two unlinked complementary recessive genes. We propose the symbols ssp2 for the gene associated with zt2 in Disco/2 and ssp1 for the gene not associated with tannin content in ILB938/2. The novel ssp1 locus was mapped at F5 in cross ‘A’ using Medicago truncatula-derived single-nucleotide polymorphism and was on chromosome 1 of faba bean, in a well-conserved region of M. truncatula chromosome 5 containing some candidate Myb and basic helix–loop–helix transcription factor genes.

Interaction among non-toxic phytoplankton, toxic phytoplankton and zooplankton: inferences from field observations

We explore the mutual dependencies and interactions among different groups of species of the plankton population, based on an analysis of the long-term field observations carried out by our group in the North–West coast of the Bay of Bengal. The plankton community is structured into three groups of species, namely, non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), toxic phytoplankton (TPP) and zooplankton. To find the pair-wise dependencies among the three groups of plankton, Pearson and partial correlation coefficients are calculated. To explore the simultaneous interaction among all the three groups, a time series analysis is performed. Following an Expectation Maximization (E-M) algorithm, those data points which are missing due to irregularities in sampling are estimated, and with the completed data set a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model is analyzed. The overall analysis demonstrates that toxin-producing phytoplankton play two distinct roles: the inhibition on consumption of toxic substances reduces the abundance of zooplankton, and the toxic materials released by TPP significantly compensate for the competitive disadvantages among phytoplankton species. Our study suggests that the presence of TPP might be a possible cause for the generation of a complex interaction among the large number of phytoplankton and zooplankton species that might be responsible for the prolonged coexistence of the plankton species in a fluctuating biomass.

How well can we measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography from space?

Recent gravity missions have produced a dramatic improvement in our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space. To fully exploit this oceanic observation, however, we must quantify its error. To establish a baseline, we first assess the error budget for an MDT calculated using a 3rd generation GOCE geoid and the CLS01 mean sea surface (MSS). With these products, we can resolve MDT spatial scales down to 250 km with an accuracy of 1.7 cm, with the MSS and geoid making similar contributions to the total error. For spatial scales within the range 133–250 km the error is 3.0 cm, with the geoid making the greatest contribution. For the smallest resolvable spatial scales (80–133 km) the total error is 16.4 cm, with geoid error accounting for almost all of this. Relative to this baseline, the most recent versions of the geoid and MSS fields reduce the long and short-wavelength errors by 0.9 and 3.2 cm, respectively, but they have little impact in the medium-wavelength band. The newer MSS is responsible for most of the long-wavelength improvement, while for the short-wavelength component it is the geoid. We find that while the formal geoid errors have reasonable global mean values they fail capture the regional variations in error magnitude, which depend on the steepness of the sea floor topography.

Distance from forest edge affects bee pollinators in oilseed rape fields

Wild pollinators have been shown to enhance the pollination of Brassica napus(oilseed rape) and thus increase its market value. Several studies have previously shown that pollination services are greater in crops adjoining forest patches or other seminatural habitats than in crops completely surrounded by other crops. In this study, we investigated the specific importance of forest edges in providing potential pollinators in B. napus fields in two areas in France. Bees were caught with yellow pan traps at increasing distances from both warm and cold forest edges into B. napus fields during the blooming period. A total of 4594 individual bees, representing six families and 83 taxa, were collected. We found that both bee abundance and taxa richness were negatively affected by the distance from forest edge. However, responses varied between bee groups and edge orientations. The ITD (Inter-Tegular distance) of the species, a good proxy for bee foraging range, seems to limit how far the bees can travel from the forest edge. We found a greater abundance of cuckoo bees (Nomada spp.) of Andrena spp. and Andrena spp. males at forest edges, which we assume indicate suitable nesting sites, or at least mating sites, for some abundant Andrena species and their parasites (Fig. 1). Synthesis and Applications. This study provides one of the first examples in temperate ecosystems of how forest edges may actually act as a reservoir of potential pollinators and directly benefit agricultural crops by providing nesting or mating sites for important early spring pollinators. Policymakers and land managers should take forest edges into account and encourage their protection in the agricultural matrix to promote wild bees and their pollination services.

Molecular species delimitation of a symbiotic fig-pollinating wasp species complex reveals extreme deviation from reciprocal partner specificity

Background: Symbiotic relationships have contributed to major evolutionary innovations, the maintenance of fundamental ecosystem functions, and the generation and maintenance of biodiversity. However, the exact nature of host/symbiont associations, which has important consequences for their dynamics, is often poorly known due to limited understanding of symbiont taxonomy and species diversity. Among classical symbioses, figs and their pollinating wasps constitute a highly diverse keystone resource in tropical forest and savannah environments. Historically, they were considered to exemplify extreme reciprocal partner specificity (one-to-one host-symbiont species relationships), but recent work has revealed several more complex cases. However, there is a striking lack of studies with the specific aims of assessing symbiont diversity and how this varies across the geographic range of the host. Results: Here, we use molecular methods to investigate cryptic diversity in the pollinating wasps of a widespread Australian fig species. Standard barcoding genes and methods were not conclusive, but incorporation of phylogenetic analyses and a recently developed nuclear barcoding gene (ITS2), gave strong support for five pollinator species. Each pollinator species was most common in a different geographic region, emphasising the importance of wide geographic sampling to uncover diversity, and the scope for divergence in coevolutionary trajectories across the host plant range. In addition, most regions had multiple coexisting pollinators, raising the question of how they coexist in apparently similar or identical resource niches. Conclusion: Our study offers a striking example of extreme deviation from reciprocal partner specificity over the full geographical range of a fig-wasp system. It also suggests that superficially identical species may be able to co-exist in a mutualistic setting albeit at different frequencies in relation to their fig host’s range. We show that comprehensive sampling and molecular taxonomic techniques may be required to uncover the true structure of cryptic biodiversity underpinning intimate ecological interactions.

An eight-parent multiparent advanced generation inter-cross population for winter-sown wheat: creation, properties, and validation

MAGIC populations represent one of a new generation of crop genetic mapping resources combining high genetic recombination and diversity. We describe the creation and validation of an eight-parent MAGIC population consisting of 1091 F7 lines of winter-sown wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Analyses based on genotypes from a 90,000-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array find the population to be well-suited as a platform for fine-mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) and gene isolation. Patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) show the population to be highly recombined; genetic marker diversity among the founders was 74% of that captured in a larger set of 64 wheat varieties, and 54% of SNPs segregating among the 64 lines also segregated among the eight founder lines. In contrast, a commonly used reference bi-parental population had only 54% of the diversity of the 64 varieties with 27% of SNPs segregating. We demonstrate the potential of this MAGIC resource by identifying a highly diagnostic marker for the morphological character "awn presence/absence" and independently validate it in an association-mapping panel. These analyses show this large, diverse, and highly recombined MAGIC population to be a powerful resource for the genetic dissection of target traits in wheat, and it is well-placed to efficiently exploit ongoing advances in phenomics and genomics. Genetic marker and trait data, together with instructions for access to seed, are available at http://www.niab.com/MAGIC/.

With a little help from our friends: how system dynamics and soft OR can learn from each other

At its inception, the paradigm of system dynamics was deliberately made distinct from that of OR. Yet developments in soft OR now have much in common with current system dynamics modeling practice. This article briefly traces the parallel development of system dynamics and soft OR, and argues that a dialogue between the two would be mutually rewarding. to support this claim, examples of soft OR tools are described along with some of the field’s philosophical grounding and current issues. Potential benefits resulting from a dialogue are explored, with particular emphasis on the methodological framework of system dynamics and the need for a complementarist approach. The article closes with some suggestions on how to begin learning from.

Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

Motion of the dayside polar cap boundary during substorm cycles: II. Generation of poleward-moving events and polar cap patches by pulses in the magnetopause reconnection rate

Using data from the EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter) VHF and CUTLASS (Co-operative UK Twin- Located Auroral Sounding System) HF radars, we study the formation of ionospheric polar cap patches and their relationship to the magnetopause reconnection pulses identified in the companion paper by Lockwood et al. (2005). It is shown that the poleward-moving, high-concentration plasma patches observed in the ionosphere by EISCAT on 23 November 1999, as reported by Davies et al. (2002), were often associated with corresponding reconnection rate pulses. However, not all such pulses generated a patch and only within a limited MLT range (11:00–12:00 MLT) did a patch result from a reconnection pulse. Three proposed mechanisms for the production of patches, and of the concentration minima that separate them, are analysed and evaluated: (1) concentration enhancement within the patches by cusp/cleft precipitation; (2) plasma depletion in the minima between the patches by fast plasma flows; and (3) intermittent injection of photoionisation-enhanced plasma into the polar cap. We devise a test to distinguish between the effects of these mechanisms. Some of the events repeat too frequently to apply the test. Others have sufficiently long repeat periods and mechanism (3) is shown to be the only explanation of three of the longer-lived patches seen on this day. However, effect (2) also appears to contribute to some events. We conclude that plasma concentration gradients on the edges of the larger patches arise mainly from local time variations in the subauroral plasma, via the mechanism proposed by Lockwood et al. (2000).

Extension of the TAMSAT satellite-based rainfall monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to present

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall monitoring products have been extended to provide spatially contiguous rainfall estimates across Africa. This has been achieved through a new, climatology-based calibration, which varies in both space and time. As a result, cumulative estimates of rainfall are now issued at the end of each 10-day period (dekad) at 4-km spatial resolution with pan-African coverage. The utility of the products for decision making is improved by the routine provision of validation reports, for which the 10-day (dekadal) TAMSAT rainfall estimates are compared with independent gauge observations. This paper describes the methodology by which the TAMSAT method has been applied to generate the pan-African rainfall monitoring products. It is demonstrated through comparison with gauge measurements that the method provides skillful estimates, although with a systematic dry bias. This study illustrates TAMSAT’s value as a complementary method of estimating rainfall through examples of successful operational application.