Quantifying the uncertainties in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for UK wheat ethanol

Biofuels are increasingly promoted worldwide as a means for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. However, current regulatory frameworks and most academic life cycle analyses adopt a deterministic approach in determining the GHG intensities of biofuels and thus ignore the inherent risk associated with biofuel production. This study aims to develop a transparent stochastic method for evaluating UK biofuels that determines both the magnitude and uncertainty of GHG intensity on the basis of current industry practices. Using wheat ethanol as a case study, we show that the GHG intensity could span a range of 40-110 gCO2e MJ-1 when land use change (LUC) emissions and various sources of uncertainty are taken into account, as compared with a regulatory default value of 44 gCO2e MJ-1. This suggests that the current deterministic regulatory framework underestimates wheat ethanol GHG intensity and thus may not be effective in evaluating transport fuels. Uncertainties in determining the GHG intensity of UK wheat ethanol include limitations of available data at a localized scale, and significant scientific uncertainty of parameters such as soil N2O and LUC emissions. Biofuel polices should be robust enough to incorporate the currently irreducible uncertainties and flexible enough to be readily revised when better science is available. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

A simple diesel engine air-path model to predict the cylinder charge during transients: Strategies for reducing transient emissions spikes

Simple air-path models for modern (VGT/EGR equipped) diesel engines are in common use, and have been reported in the literature. This paper addresses some of the shortcomings of control-oriented models to allow better prediction of the cylinder charge properties. A fast response CO2 analyzer is used to validate the model by comparing the recorded and predicted CO2 concentrations in both the intake port and exhaust manifold of one of the cylinders. Data showing the recorded NOx emissions and exhaust gas opacity during a step change in engine load illustrate the spikes in both NOx and smoke seen during transient conditions. The predicted cylinder charge properties from the model are examined and compared with the measured NOx and opacity. Together, the emissions data and charge properties paint a consistent picture of the phenomena occurring during the transient. Alternative strategies for the fueling and cylinder charge during these load transients are investigated and discussed. Experimental results are presented showing that spikes in both NOx and smoke can be avoided at the expense of some loss in torque response. Even if the torque response must be maintained, it is demonstrated that it is still possible to eliminate spikes in NOx emissions for the transient situation being examined. Copyright © 2006 SAE International.

Simultaneous reduction of particulate matter and NOx emissions using 4-way catalyzed filtration systems

The next generation of diesel emission control devices includes 4-way catalyzed filtration systems (4WCFS) consisting of both NOx and diesel particulate matter (DPM) control. A methodology was developed to simultaneously evaluate the NOx and DPM control performance of miniature 4WCFS made from acicular mullite, an advanced ceramic material (ACM), that were challenged with diesel exhaust. The impact of catalyst loading and substrate porosity on catalytic performance of the NOx trap was evaluated. Simultaneously with NOx measurements, the real-time solid particle filtration performance of catalyst-coated standard and high porosity filters was determined for steady-state and regenerative conditions. The use of high porosity ACM 4-way catalyzed filtration systems reduced NOx by 99% and solid and total particulate matter by 95% when averaged over 10 regeneration cycles. A "regeneration cycle" refers to an oxidizing ("lean") exhaust condition followed by a reducing ("rich") exhaust condition resulting in NOx storage and NOx reduction (i.e., trap "regeneration"), respectively. Standard porosity ACM 4-way catalyzed filtration systems reduced NOx by 60-75% and exhibited 99.9% filtration efficiency. The rich/lean cycling used to regenerate the filter had almost no impact on solid particle filtration efficiency but impacted NOx control. Cycling resulted in the formation of very low concentrations of semivolatile nucleation mode particles for some 4WCFS formulations. Overall, 4WCFS show promise for significantly reducing diesel emissions into the atmosphere in a single control device. © 2013 American Chemical Society.

Particulate matter emission during start-up and transient operation of a spark-ignition engine

In order to understand why emissions of Particulate Matter (PM) from Spark-Ignition (SI) automobiles peak during periods of transient operation such as rapid accelerations, a study of controlled, repeatable transients was performed. Time-resolved engine-out PM emissions from a modern four-cylinder engine during transient load and air/fuel ratio operation were examined, and the results could be fit in most cases to a first order time response. The time constants for the transient response are similar to those measured for changes in intake valve temperature, reflecting the strong dependence of PM emissions on the amount of liquid fuel in the combustion chamber. In only one unrepeatable case did the time response differ from a first order function: showing an overshoot in PM emissions during transition from the initial to the final steady state PM emission level. PM emissions during controlled, motored start-up experiments show a peak at start-up followed by a period during which emissions are either relatively constant or drift somewhat. When the fuel injection and ignition are shut off, PM emissions also peak briefly, but rapidly decay to low levels. Qualitative implications on the study and modeling of PM emissions during transient engine operation are discussed. Copyright © 1999 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Effect of operating conditions and fuel type on crevice hc emissions: Model results and comparison with experiments

A one-dimensional model for crevice HC post-flame oxidation is used to calculate and understand the effect of operating parameters and fuel type (propane and isooctane) on the extent of crevice hydrocarbon and the product distribution in the post flame environment. The calculations show that the main parameters controlling oxidation are: bulk burned gas temperatures, wall temperatures, turbulent diffusivity, and fuel oxidation rates. Calculated extents of oxidation agree well with experimental values, and the sensitivities to operating conditions (wall temperatures, equivalence ratio, fuel type) are reasonably well captured. Whereas the bulk gas temperatures largely determine the extent of oxidation, the hydrocarbon product distribution is not very much affected by the burned gas temperatures, but mostly by diffusion rates. Uncertainties in both turbulent diffusion rates as well as in mechanisms are an important factor limiting the predictive capabilities of the model. However, it seems well suited to sensitivity calculations about a baseline. Copyright © 1999 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Novel experiment on in-cylinder desorption of fuel from the oil layer

A technique has been developed to measure the desorption and subsequent oxidation of fuel in the oil layer by spiking the oil with liquid fuel and firing the engine on gaseous fuel or motoring with air. Experiments suggest that fuel desorption is not diffusion limited above 50°C and indicated that approximately two to four percent of the cylinder oil layer is fresh oil from the sump. The increase in hydrocarbon emissions is of the order of 100 ppmC1 per 1% liquid fuel introduced into the fresh oil in a methane fired engine at mid-speed and light load conditions. Calculations indicate that fuel desorbing from oil is much more likely to produce hydrocarbon emissions than fuel emerging from crevices. © Copyright 1994 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Analysis of high pressure premixed flames using Equivalent Reactor Networks for predicting NOx emissions

This paper describes a computational study of lean premixed high pressure methane-air flames, using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) together with a reactor network approach. A detailed chemical reaction mechanism is employed to predict pollutant concentrations, placing emphasis on nitrogen oxide emissions. The reacting flow field is divided into separate zones in which homogeneity of the physical and chemical conditions prevails. The defined zones are interconnected forming an Equivalent Reactor Network (ERN). Three flames are examined for which experimental data is available. Flame A is characterised by an equivalence ratio of 0.43 while Flames B and C are richer with equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 0.56 respectively. Computations are performed for a range of operating conditions, quantifying the effect in the emitted NOx levels. Model predictions are compared against the available experimental data. Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of the network size, in order to define the optimum number of reactors for accurate predictions of the species mass fractions. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global civil aviation black carbon emissions.

Aircraft black carbon (BC) emissions contribute to climate forcing, but few estimates of BC emitted by aircraft at cruise exist. For the majority of aircraft engines the only BC-related measurement available is smoke number (SN)-a filter based optical method designed to measure near-ground plume visibility, not mass. While the first order approximation (FOA3) technique has been developed to estimate BC mass emissions normalized by fuel burn [EI(BC)] from SN, it is shown that it underestimates EI(BC) by >90% in 35% of directly measured cases (R(2) = -0.10). As there are no plans to measure BC emissions from all existing certified engines-which will be in service for several decades-it is necessary to estimate EI(BC) for existing aircraft on the ground and at cruise. An alternative method, called FOX, that is independent of the SN is developed to estimate BC emissions. Estimates of EI(BC) at ground level are significantly improved (R(2) = 0.68), whereas estimates at cruise are within 30% of measurements. Implementing this approach for global civil aviation estimated aircraft BC emissions are revised upward by a factor of ~3. Direct radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation BC emissions is estimated to be ~9.5 mW/m(2), equivalent to ~1/3 of the current RF due to aviation CO2 emissions.

A global assessment of manufacturing: Economic development, energy use, carbon emissions, and the potential for energy efficiency and materials recycling

We present in two parts an assessment of global manufacturing. In the first part, we review economic development, pollution, and carbon emissions from a country perspective, tracking the rise of China and other developing countries. The results show not only a rise in the economic fortunes of the newly industrializing nations, but also a significant rise in global pollution, particularly air pollution and CO2 emissions largely from coal use, which alter and even reverse previous global trends. In the second part, we change perspective and quantitatively evaluate two important technical strategies to reduce pollution and carbon emissions: energy efficiency and materials recycling. We subdivide the manufacturing sector on the basis of the five major subsectors that dominate energy use and carbon emissions: (a) iron and steel, (b) cement, (c) plastics, (d) paper, and (e) aluminum. The analysis identifies technical constraints on these strategies, but by combined and aggressive action, industry should be able to balance increases in demand with these technical improvements. The result would be high but relatively flat energy use and carbon emissions. The review closes by demonstrating the consequences of extrapolating trends in production and carbon emissions and suggesting two options for further environmental improvements, materials efficiency, and demand reduction. © 2013 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Component level strategies for exploiting the lifespan of steel in products

Approximately 40% of annual demand for steel worldwide is used to replace products that have failed. With this percentage set to rise, extending the lifespan of steel in products presents a significant opportunity to reduce demand and thus decrease carbon dioxide emissions from steel production. This article presents a new, simplified framework with which to analyse product failure. When applied to the products that dominate steel use, this framework reveals that they are often replaced because a component/sub-assembly becomes degraded, inferior, unsuitable or worthless. In light of this, four products, which are representative of high steel content products in general, are analysed at the component level, determining steel mass and cost profiles over the lifespan of each product. The results show that the majority of the steel components are underexploited - still functioning when the product is discarded; in particular, the potential lifespan of the steel-rich structure is typically much greater than its actual lifespan. Twelve case studies, in which product or component life has been increased, are then presented. The resulting evidence is used to tailor life-extension strategies to each reason for product failure and to identify the economic motivations for implementing these strategies. The results suggest that a product template in which the long-lived structure accounts for a relatively high share of costs while short-lived components can be easily replaced (offering profit to the producer and enhanced utility to owners) encourages product life extension. © 2013 The Author.

An Evaluation of Four Phylogenetic Markers in Nostoc: Implications for Cyanobacterial Phylogenetic Studies at the Intrageneric Level

The success of some phylogenetic markers in cyanobacteria owes to the design of cyanobacteria-specific primers, but a few studies have directly investigated the evolution "behavior" of the loci. In this study, we performed a case study in Nostoc to evaluate rpoC1, hetR, rbcLX, and 16S rRNA-tRNA(Ile)-tRNA(Ala)-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) as phylogenetic markers. The results indicated that the gene trees of these loci are not congruent with the phylogeny based on 16S rRNA gene. The mechanisms contributing to the incongruence include randomized variation and recombination. As the results suggested, one should be careful to choose the molecular markers for phylogenetic reconstruction at the intrageneric level in cyanobacteria.

Clonal diversity and genealogical relationships of gibel carp in four hatcheries

To conserve and utilize the genetic pool of gynogenetic gibel carp (Carassius auratus gibelio), the Fangzheng and Qihe stock hatcheries have been established in China. However, little information is available on the amount of genetic variation within and between these populations. In this study, clonal diversity in 101 fish from these two stock hatcheries and 35 fish from two other hatcheries in Wuhan and Pengze respectively was analysed for variation in serum transferrin. Thirteen clones were found in Fangzheng and Qihe, of which 12 were novel. Six clones were specific to Fangzheng and three specific to Qihe, whereas four were shared among the Fangzheng and Qihe fish. To obtain more knowledge on genetic diversity and genealogical relationships within gibel carp, the complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region (similar to 920 bp) was sequenced in 64 individuals representing all 14 clones identified in the four hatcheries. Differences in the mtDNA sequences varied remarkably among hatcheries, with the Fangzheng and Qihe lines demonstrating high diversity and Wuhan and Pengze showing no variation. The Fangzheng and Qihe lines might represent two distinct matrilineal sources. One of the Qihe samples carried the haplotype shared by a most widely cultivated Fangzheng clone, indicating that a Fangzheng clone escaped from cultivated ponds and moved into the Qihe hatchery. Four Fangzheng samples clustered within the lineage formed mainly by Qihe samples, most likely reflecting historical gene flow from Qihe to Fangzheng. It is suggested that clones in Wuhan originated from Fangzheng, consistent with their introduction history, supporting the hypothesis that gibel carp in Pengze were domesticated from individuals in the Fangzheng hatchery.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative powertrains for reduced energy use and CO2 emissions in passenger vehicles

This work analysed the cost-effectiveness of avoiding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using advanced internal combustion engines, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles across the nine UK passenger vehicles segments. Across all vehicle types and powertrain groups, minimum installed motive power was dependent most on the time to accelerate from zero to 96.6km/h (60mph). Hybridising the powertrain reduced the difference in energy use between vehicles with slow (t z - 60 > 8 s) and fast acceleration (t z - 60 < 8 s) times. The cost premium associated with advanced powertrains was dependent most on the powertrain chosen, rather than the performance required. Improving non-powertrain components reduced vehicle road load and allowed total motive capacity to decrease by 17%, energy use by 11%, manufacturing cost premiums by 13% and CO2 emissions abatement costs by 15%. All vehicles with advanced internal combustion engines, most hybrid and plug-in hybrid powertrains reduced net CO2 emissions and had lower lifetime operating costs than the respective segment reference vehicle. Most powertrains using fuel cells and all electric vehicles had positive CO2 emissions abatement costs. However, only vehicles using advanced internal combustion engines and parallel hybrid vehicles may be attractive to consumers by the fuel savings offsetting increases in vehicle cost within two years. This work demonstrates that fuel savings are possible relative to today's fleet, but indicates that the most cost-effective way of reducing fuel consumption and CO2 emissions is by advanced combustion technologies and hybridisation with a parallel topology. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.