Analysis of contagion from the constant conditional correlation model with Markov regime switching

Over the last decades, the analysis of the transmissions of international nancial events has become the subject of many academic studies focused on multivariate volatility models volatility. The goal of this study is to evaluate the nancial contagion between stock market returns. The econometric approach employed was originally presented by Pelletier (2006), named Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC). This methodology involves the combination of Constant Conditional Correlation Model (CCC) proposed by Bollerslev (1990) with Markov Regime Switching Model suggested by Hamilton and Susmel (1994). A modi cation was made in the original RSDC model, the introduction of the GJR-GARCH model formulated in Glosten, Jagannathan e Runkle (1993), on the equation of the conditional univariate variances to allow asymmetric e ects in volatility be captured. The database was built with the series of daily closing stock market indices in the United States (SP500), United Kingdom (FTSE100), Brazil (IBOVESPA) and South Korea (KOSPI) for the period from 02/01/2003 to 09/20/2012. Throughout the work the methodology was compared with others most widespread in the literature, and the model RSDC with two regimes was de ned as the most appropriate for the selected sample. The set of results provide evidence for the existence of nancial contagion between markets of the four countries considering the de nition of nancial contagion from the World Bank called very restrictive. Such a conclusion should be evaluated carefully considering the wide diversity of de nitions of contagion in the literature.

Estrutura e dinâmica da interação de éteres de celulose com surfactantes

As técnicas de fluorimetria, condutometria, viscosimetria, turbidimetria, espalhamento de luz e espalhamento de raios-X a baixo ângulo (SAXS) foram empregadas no estudo da agregação de diferentes surfactantes aniônicos em presença de soluções aquosas diluídas de (hidroxipropil)celulose (HPC) 0,25% m/m, (hidroxipropilmetil)celulose (HPMC) 0,20% m/m e HPMC 0,10% m/m / NaCl 0,10 mol L-1. Também foram investigadas através de SAXS soluções concentradas de HPC (30, 40 e 50% m/m). Admitindo-se uma faixa geral de concentração, entre 10-4 e 10-1 mol L-1, foram utilizados neste estudo os surfactantes colato de sódio (CS), deoxicolato de sódio (DC), derivados dos sais biliares, e o alquilsintético dodecilsulafato de sódio (SDS). Observou-se que os polímeros contribuem diferentemente no processo de agregação de cada surfactante, evidenciado pela mudança dos valores da concentração de agregação crítica (CAC) em relação à concentração micelar crítica (CMC). Os resultados condutométricos confirmaram a interação éteres de celulose/sais biliares, embora a mesma tenha se mostrado mais fraca em relação a éteres de celulose/SDS. Os dados termodinâmicos demonstraram que a formação de agregados polímero/surfactante apresenta maior estabilidade do que as próprias micelas livres. Os resultados de viscosimetria e turbidimetria evidenciaram as diferenças estruturais entre HPC e HPMC, assim como entre os surfactantes. Através do espalhamento de luz dinâmico, verificou-se a existência de dois modos de correlação, rápido e lento. O primeiro é atribuído à cadeia polimérica isolada, agregados polímero/surfactante intramoleculares ou mesmo a micelas livres. Por sua vez, o modo lento relaciona-se a clusters poliméricos ou agregados polímero/surfactante intermoleculares. Adicionalmente, as curvas de distribuição dos tempos de relaxação demonstraram a influência de cada surfactante sobre a dinâmica dos polímeros. Tal influência é percebida antes mesmo da CAC, contrariando o modelo da interação polímero/surfactante proposto por Cabane. Os resultados de SAXS acusaram a formação de domínios líquido-cristalinos em xx soluções concentradas de HPC, assim como confirmaram a presença de micelas livres a altas concentrações de surfactantes nos sistemas diluídos. Em linhas gerais, os resultados indicaram a interação dos polímeros com SDS mais efetiva do que os mesmos polímeros e os sais biliares. No que tange à natureza do polímero, a HPC mostrou uma maior estabilidade na sua interação com os surfactantes do que a HPMC.

Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility’s clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Revendo a definição e determinação de bolhas especulativas no contexto de contágio, este estudo analisa a bolha do DotCom nos mercados acionistas americanos e europeus usando o modelo de correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC) proposto por Engle e Sheppard (2001) como uma explicação econométrica e, por outro lado, as finanças comportamentais como uma explicação psicológica. Contágio é definido, neste contexto, como a quebra estatística nos DCC’s estimados, medidos através das alterações das suas médias e medianas. Surpreendentemente, o contágio é menor durante bolhas de preços, sendo que o resultado principal indica a presença de contágio entre os diferentes índices dos dois continentes e demonstra a presença de alterações estruturais durante a crise financeira.

Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility's clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Reviewing the de nition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by (Engle and Sheppard 2001) as on one hand as an econometrics explanation and on the other hand the behavioral nance as an psychological explanation. Contagion is de ned in this context as the statistical break in the computed DCCs as measured by the shifts in their means and medians. Even it is astonishing, that the contagion is lower during price bubbles, the main nding indicates the presence of contagion in the di¤erent indices among those two continents and proves the presence of structural changes during nancial crisis

Avaliação do potencial genotóxico e citotóxico associado a queima artesanal da castanha de caju no Município de João Câmara

The Brazil is the third largest producer of cashew nuts in the world. Despite the social and economic importance of the cashew nut, its production is still carried out artisanally. One of the main problems encountered in the cashew production chain are the conditions under which the roasting of the nut occurs to obtain the kernel from the shell. In the present study was conducted a biomonitoring of the genotoxic and cytotoxicity effects associated with the elements from the cashew nut roasting in João Câmara - RN, semi-arid region of Brazil. To assess the genotoxic was used the bioassay of micronucleus (MN) in Tradescantia pallida. In addition, it was performed a comparative between the Tradescantia pallida and KU-20 and other biomarkers of DNA damage, such as the nucleoplasmic bridges (NBP) and nuclear fragments (NF) were quantified. The levels of particulate matter (PM1.0, PM2.5, PM10) and black carbon (BC) were also measured and the inorganic chemical composition of the PM2.5 collected was determined using X-ray fluorescence spectrometry analysis and the assessment of the cytotoxicity by MTT assay and exclusion method by trypan blue. . For this purpose, were chosen: the Amarelão community where the roasting occurs and the Santa Luzia farm an area without influence of this process. The mean value of PM2.5 (Jan 2124.2 μg/m3; May 1022.2 μg/m3; Sep 1291.9 μg/m3) and BC (Jan 363.6 μg/m3; May 70.0 μg/m3; Sep 69.4 μg/m3) as well as the concentration of the elements Al, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Se, Br and Pb obtained at Amarelão was significantly higher than at Santa Luzia farm. The genotoxicity tests with T. pallida indicated a significant increase in the number of MN, NBP and NF and it was found a negative correlation between the frequency of these biomarkers and the rainfall. The concentrations of 200 μg/mL and 400 μg/mL of PM2.5 were cytotoxic to MRC-5 cells. All together, the results indicated genotoxicity and citotoxicity for the community of Amarelão, and the high rates of PM2.5 considered a potential contributor to this effect, mainly by the high presence of transition metals, especially Fe, Ni, Cu, Cr and Zn, these elements have the potential to cause DNA damage. Other nuclear alterations, such as the NPBs and NFs may be used as effective biomarkers of DNA damage in tetrads of Tradescantia pallida. The results of this study enabled the identification of a serious occupational problem. Accordingly, preventative measures and better practices should be adopted to improve both the activity and the quality of life of the population. These measures are of fundamental importance for the sustainable development of this activity.

Remoção de metais pesados em efluentes sintéticos utilizando vermiculita como adsorvente

Heavy metals are used in many industrial processestheirs discard can harm fel effects to the environment, becoming a serious problem. Many methods used for wastewater treatment have been reported in the literature, but many of them have high cost and low efficiency. The adsorption process has been used as effective for the metal remoal ions. This paper presents studies to evaluate the adsorption capacity of vermiculite as adsorbent for the heavy metals removal in a synthetic solution. The mineral vermiculite was characterized by differents techniques: specific surface area analysis by BET method, X-ray diffraction, raiosX fluorescence, spectroscopy in the infraredd region of, laser particle size analysis and specific gravity. The physical characteristics of the material presented was appropriate for the study of adsorption. The adsorption experiments weredriveal finite bath metod in synthetic solutions of copper, nickel, cadmium, lead and zinc. The results showed that the vermiculite has a high potential for adsorption, removing about 100% of ions and with removal capacity values about 85 ppm of metal in solution, 8.09 mg / g for cadmium, 8.39 mg/g for copper, 8.40 mg/g for lead, 8.26 mg/g for zinc and 8.38 mg/g of nickel. The experimental data fit in the Langmuir and Freundlich models. The kinetic datas showed a good correlation with the pseudo-second order model. It was conducteas a competition study among the metals using vermiculiti a adsorbent. Results showed that the presence of various metals in solution does not influence their removal at low concentrations, removing approximat wasely 100 % of all metals present in solutions

Estimates of genetic parameters for visual scores and their correlation with production and reproductive traits in Brahman cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Preferential location of lidocaine and etidocaine in lecithin bilayers as determined by EPR, fluorescence and H-2 NMR

We have examined the effect of the uncharged species of lidocaine (LDC) and etidocaine (EDC) on the acyl chain moiety of egg phosphatidylcholine liposomes. Changes in membrane organization caused by both anesthetics were detected through the use of EPR spin labels (5, 7 and 12 doxyl stearic acid methyl ester) or fluorescence probes (4, 6, 10, 16 pyrene-fatty acids). The disturbance caused by the LA was greater when the probes were inserted in more external positions of the acyl chain and decreased towards the hydrophobic core of the membrane. The results indicate a preferential insertion of LDC at the polar interface of the bilayer and in the first half of the acyl chain, for EDC. Additionally, 2 H NMR spectra of multilamellar liposomes composed by acyl chain-perdeutero DMPC and EPC (1:4 mol%) allowed the determination of the segmental order (S-mol) and dynamics (T-1) of the acyl chain region. In accordance to the fluorescence and EPR results, changes in molecular orientation and dynamics are more prominent if the LA preferential location is more superficial, as for LDC while EDC seems to organize the acyl chain region between carbons 2-8, which is indicative of its positioning. We propose that the preferential location of LDC and EDC inside the bilayers creates a "transient site", which is related to the anesthetic potency since it could modulate the access of these molecules to their binding site(s) in the voltage-gated sodium channel. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Photoacoustics as a tool for the diagnosis of radicular stress: Measurements in eucalyptus seedlings

In reforesting companies (cellulose industry), eucalyptus is usually cultivated in small plastic containers (50 mL). As seedlings remain for about 120 days in these containers-until transplantation-their roots become space restricted, with consequent limitations in water and nutrient absorption. These restrictions may lead to plant stress, decreasing productivity. In this work, we used the photoacoustic technique to evaluate the photosynthetic activity of Eucalyptus grandis, E. urophylla and E. urograndis seedlings subjected to this limited space availability, seeking a correlation with morphological parameters and fluorescence measurements in these seedlings. Photoacoustic, fluorescence, and morphological analysis were conducted every 15 days, from 45 to 120 days after sowing. Fluorescence and photosynthetic rate were evaluated in vivo and in situ, the latter one using the open photoacoustic technique. Data show that root dry matter diminished markedly at 90 and 120 days after sowing; this behavior showed a high correlation with the gas exchange component of the photoacoustic signal, as well as with the fluorescence ratio Fv/Fm. These results indicate that the soil volume of the container becomes insufficient for the roots after 90 days, probably leading to a nutritional deficiency in plants, which explains the decrease observed in the photosynthetic rate of seedlings. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Mineralogy of the clay fraction of alfisols in two slope curvatures: IV - spatial correlation with physical properties

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Validação interlaboratorial do teste de polarização fluorescente para o diagnóstico sorológico da brucelose bovina

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Intraocular pressure and its correlation with blood gas parameters in crested caracaras (Caracara plancus) anesthetized with isoflurane and sevoflurane

Avaliou-se a pressão intra-ocular (PIO) e estimaram-se as correlações entre PIO e pressão de dióxido de carbono (PaCO2) e pH arterial de cinco caracarás (Caracara plancus), anestesiados com isofluorano (ISO) ou sevofluorano (SEV). Valores basais da PIO foram aferidos em ambos os olhos (M0). Cateterizou-se previamente a artéria braquial para obtenção de parâmetros hemogasométricos e cardiorrespiratórios. Anestesia foi induzida com ISO a 5V% e mantida por 40 minutos com 2,5V%. PIO e amostras de sangue foram avaliadas em diferentes momentos até o final do procedimento. Após recuperação, uma segunda anestesia foi realizada com SEV a 6% e mantida com 3,5%. Os parâmetros foram aferidos nos mesmos momentos estabelecidos previamente. A PIO decresceu significativamente (P=0,012) de M0 em todos os momentos e não houve diferença estatística entre ISO e SEV. Correlações significativas entre PIO e PaCO2 e entre PIO e pH sangüíneo foram observadas apenas para a anestesia com SEV. O pH sangüíneo decresceu paralelamente a PIO, enquanto a PaCO2 aumentou, em carcarás anestesiados com isofluorano e sevofluorano.

Detection of anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies in experimentally and naturally infected non-human primates by Indirect Fluorescence Assay (IFA) and indirect ELISA

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sensores de reflectância e fluorescência na avaliação de teores de nitrogênio, produção de biomassa e produtividade do algodoeiro

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o potencial de utilização dos sensores de reflectância e fluorescência na avaliação de teores de N‑NO3‑ no pecíolo, na produção de biomassa e na produtividade do algodoeiro. Utilizou-se o delineamento experimental de blocos ao acaso em arranjo fatorial 3x4, com quatro repetições. Os tratamentos consistiram de três variedades de algodão (ST‑4288‑B2RF, ST‑4498‑B2RF e DP-164‑B2RF) e quatro doses de N (0, 45, 90 e 135 kg ha‑1). Aos 120 dias após a semeadura, foram realizadas leituras com sensores ópticos de reflectância e fluorescência. Não houve correlação significativa dos teores de N‑NO3‑ no pecíolo com os índices de reflectância; porém, houve correlação destes com a produção de biomassa (0,39) e a produtividade (0,32 a 0,41). Os índices do sensor de fluorescência correlacionaram-se significativamente com teores de N‑NO3‑ no pecíolo (0,34 a 0,61), produção de biomassa (0,30 a 0,53) e produtividade (0,34). em comparação com os índices de reflectância, os de fluorescência apresentam maior capacidade de avaliar os teores de N‑NO3‑ no pecíolo, capacidade semelhante em detectar variação na biomassa e menor capacidade de detectar variação da produtividade do algodoeiro, quando se aplicam doses crescentes de N.