What do broadband consumers want? Design and execution of a questionnaire on demand for bundled services on the Portuguese telecomunications market

The report addresses the question of what are the preferences of broadband consumers on the Portuguese telecommunication market. A triple play bundle is being investigated. The discrete choice analysis, adopted in the study, base on 110 responses, mainly from NOVA students. The data for the analysis was collected via manually designed on-line survey. The results show that the price attribute is relatively the most important one while the television attribute is being overlooked in the decision making process. Main effects examined in the research are robust. In addition, "extras" components are being tested in terms of users' preferences.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

Transparency in financial reporting by European Foundations

The increasing role of the European Foundations, urges for more transparency. The prevalent accounting frameworks in which they operate and report their activities are mostly based on national laws. This lack of harmonization, limits comparison between European foundations. Thus, this Work Project analyzes the current financial reporting by European foundations, and evaluates the similarities, differences and data availability between countries. The research provides evidence about little information available, deficiency in the financial reporting, within and between countries. The research recommends the need to ensure uniformity by providing a clear definition for public-benefit purpose, harmonization of laws and financial reporting.

Anatomy of the portuguese stock market risk and return in the 1977-2012 period

This paper analyses the Portuguese stock market since it reopened in 1977, with a special focus on the evolution of the statistic and stochastic characteristics of the market return throughout this 36 year period. The market return for the period of time between 1977 and 2012 (September 28th) is estimated and then compared with the return that would have been achieved with Government bonds and treasury bills, which allows us to confirm that the hierarchy of return / risk across the different financial instruments is verified. The market risk premium for this 36 year period is also estimated and a comparison with other markets is performed, suggesting that the Portuguese market’s risk has not been compensated by an adequate return. The study also examines the evolution of the Portuguese market’s volatility in the 1977-2012 period and compares it with other markets, showing the existence of extremely high peaks during the first 11 years, but indicating a downwards trend throughout the whole period under analysis. Finally, the correlation between market returns for Portugal and for other countries and the degree of integration are estimated and their evolution throughout time is assessed, leading to the conclusion that the performance of the Portuguese stock market has become increasingly correlated with major European markets – correlation with some markets close to 0.70 from 2000 onwards-, but that country-specific risk factors are still relevant.

Vyndaqel (Tafamidis)

The main objective of this pedagogical case study is to analyse the market entry dynamics of pharmaceutical innovative drugs in Portugal, and the role and impact of the different stakeholders in this process. The case focuses on the market entry of Vyndaqel (Tafamidis) Pfizer’s orphan innovative product to treat TTR-FAP, “paramiloidose”, a highly incapacitating rare disease that has more than 2.000 diagnosed patients in Portugal, one of the highest prevalence worldwide and an incidence of 100 new patients every year. In terms of methodology it were used two main sources of information. Regarding secondary data sources it was made an exhaustive search using the main specialty search engines regarding the Tafamidis case, market access, orphan drugs and market entry context in Portugal and Europe. In terms of primary data it were conducted 7 direct interviews with the main case stakeholders. The pedagogical case study focuses on 5 main questions that provide the base of the discussion for the classes. First it is analysed the rationale behind the introduction of Tafamidis in Portugal, and its relevance for Pfizer, namely due to the previous investment made with the acquisition of FoldRX by $400M, the company that developed the product in the first place. It is also analysed the point of view of the NHS, and the reasoning behind drug reimbursement that considered not only the technical (efficacy and safety) and financial benefits of the drug, but also the social impact, due to the major role played by patient associations’ actions and coverage provided by the media that impacted the reimbursement decision. Finally it is analysed the vertical financing methodology that was selected by the Ministry of Health for drug acquisition by 2 public hospitals, that served as reference centres for the treatment of this disease

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Economic grand rounds: financial burden of medical care and risk of forgoing care among Europeans with depressive symptoms

Little is known about the financial burden of individuals with depressive symptoms. This study explored that burden, using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. To assess the association between depressive symptoms and the individuals' financial burden for medical care and whether they forwent medical care because of costs, logistic regressions were performed that adjusted for age, gender, marital status, education, and chronic diseases. A total of 16,696 noninstitutionalized individuals aged 50-79 years were included in the study. Individuals with depressive symptoms and those without such symptoms bore a similar financial burden. However, individuals with depressive symptoms were at increased risk of forgoing care because of costs, which may worsen their health and financial situation

Integrating Financial Perspective to Quality Orientated Management System. Case: ALSTOM Finland Oy

Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena on tutkia taloudellisen näkökulman integroimista laatuajatteluun pohjautuvaan johtamisjärjestelmään esimerkkiyrityksessä. Johtamisjärjestelmän tulee tuottaa tietoa johdon strategiselle päätöksenteolle ja lisäksi täyttää laatujärjestelmän (ISO 9001:2000) asettamat vaatimukset. Tutkimuksen kohteena oleva työkalu on balanced scorecard (tasapainotettu tuloskortti). Työn tarkoituksena on ehdottaa balanced scorecard- talouden tunnuslukuja esimerkkiyritykselle. Tutkimuksen tavoitteisiin päästään empiiristä tutkimusta varten tehdyn teoreettisen viitekehyksen avulla. Empiiristä tutkimustietoa kerätään osallistuvan havainnoinnin, haastattelujen ja keskustelujen avulla. Tutkimusmenetelmänä on laadullinen case -tutkimus. Balanced scorecardin eri näkökulmille ehdotettiin tunnuslukuja empiirisen tutkimuksen pohjalta. Lisäksi talouden näkökulmaa tutkittiin tarkemmin. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksenä esitettiin, että taloudelliset tunnusluvut mittaavat ensisijaisesti strategiaa eivätkä laatua. Lisäksi huomioitiin, että tuloskorttien tulisi olla koekäytössä ennen bonuspalkkauksen ja balanced scorecardin yhdistämistä.

Development of a Business Model that Supports Mobile Value-Added Services Market Creation in Emerging Countries

Tutkielman tavoitteena on luoda liiketoimintamalli, joka tukee langattomien matkaviestintäpalveluiden markkinoiden luomista kehittyvillä markkinoilla. Teoreettinen osa tarkastelee langattomien matkaviestintäpalveluiden liiketoimintamallin kehittämisen tärkeimpiä elementtejä CIS maissa. Teoreettisen kappaleen tuloksena saadaan puitteet, jonka avulla liiketoimintamalli matkaviestintäpalveluille voidaan kehittää. Tutkielman empiirinen osa on toteutettu case tutkimuksena, jonka tavoitteena on ollut langattomien matkaviestintäpalvelujen markkinoiden luominen CIS maissa. Pääasiallinen empiirisen tiedon lähde on ollut teemahaastattelut. Tuloksena saatuja empiirisen osan tietoja verrataan teoriakappaleen vastaaviin tuloksiin Tulokset osoittavat, että radikaalin korkean teknologian innovaation markkinoiden luominen on hidas prosessi, joka vaatii kärsivällisyyttä yritykseltä. Markkinoiden, teknologian ja strategian epävarmuustekijät tuovat epävarmuutta kehittyvälle toimialalle ja markkinoille, joka vaikeuttaa liiketoimintamallin kehittämistä. Tärkein tekijä on palvelujen markkinointi ennemmin kuin teknologian. Avain kyvykkyys markkinoiden luomisessa on oppiminen, ei tietäminen.

Desired learning outcomes for the curricula in financial services industry as perceived by professionals in the financial services industry located in the Greater Toronto Area /

This study sought to explore the changing nature of the financial services industry in Toronto, Canada and the impact that these changes will have on the vocational educational outcomes required by Ontario Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology (CAAT) graduates who wish to enter the financial services industry. The study was descriptive and exploratory, based on both quantitative and qualitative data. Triangulation of 3 data sources (a collection of newspaper articles from the Toronto Star between July 1999 and June 2000, the calendars of the 25 CAATs, and a survey questionnaire prepared by me and distributed to subject matter experts who are key practitioners in the financial services industry) was used. The study contains a discussion of how the financial services industry is changing. The first question to be answered was: What do current practitioners in financial services perceive to be the knowledge, skills, and attitudes that will be required of future graduates for employment within the financial services industry? The study found that Ontario CAAT's graduates entering the financial services field need both business and financial services vocational learning outcomes. Colleges should have 2 programs 1 in accounting and 1 in financial services. The report addresses which specific topics should be included in the financial services program. The second question to be answered was: How does this anticipated profile of knowledge, skills, and attitudes change depending on the degree of implementation of the new technologies by the survey respondent? The study found no pattern. The third question to be answered was: In what way do existing programs need to change in the area of accreditation as perceived by the respondents? The study found that for accreditation, 3 credentials should be addressed within the financial services program. These are the Canadian Securities, the Life Underwriters, and the Certified Financial Planner designations. The last question to be answered was: What new knowledge, skills, and attitudes need to be incorporated into college curricula to address changing needs in the employment sector? For each Ontario CAAT which has a financial services program (excluding accounting), their program was reviewed in light of the topics as perceived by professionals in the financial services industry.

Profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements in the U.S. Treasury market

This thesis studies the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the U.S. Treasury market and investigates profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements using data from the eSpeed electronic trading platform. We investigate how macroeconomic announcements affect the return predictability of trade imbalance for the 2-year, 5-year, IO-year U.S. Treasury notes and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodology to identify informed trades and estimate the trade imbalance based on informed trades. We use the daily order book slope as a proxy for dispersion of beliefs among investors. Regression results in this thesis indicate that, on announcement days with a high dispersion of beliefs, daily trade imbalance estimated by informed trades significantly predicts returns on the following day. In addition, we develop a trade-imbalance based trading strategy conditional on dispersion of beliefs, informed trades, and announcement days. The trading strategy yields significantly positive net returns for the 2-year T-notes.

Market reactions to changes in the Nasdaq-100 Index membership

We examine stock market reactions around the Nasdaq-100 Index reconstitutions. We find a symmetric and transitory price response accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume on the effective date. Firms added to the Nasdaq-100 Index experience significant increases in institutional ownership, the number of market makers, and the number of shareholders. In contrast, firms removed from the index show significant decreases in the number of institutional shareholders. Additions to the Nasdaq-100 Index also show significant increases in four liquidity measures, whereas deletions demonstrate significant decreases in two liquidity measures. These changes in liquidity are related to the abnormal return on the announcement day. Taken together, the results suggest support for the price pressure, liquidity, and investor awareness hypotheses.

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS IN CANADA

Emerging markets have received wide attention from investors around the globe because of their return potential and risk diversification. This research examines the selection and timing performance of Canadian mutual funds which invest in fixed-income and equity securities in emerging markets. We use (un)conditional two- and five-factor benchmark models that accommodate the dynamics of returns in emerging markets. We also adopt the cross-sectional bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. All the tests are conducted using a comprehensive data set of bond and equity emerging funds over the period of 1989-2011. The risk-adjusted measures of performance are estimated using the least squares method with the Newey-West adjustment for standard errors that are robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The performance statistics of the emerging funds before (after) management-related costs are insignificantly positive (significantly negative). They are sensitive to the chosen benchmark model and conditional information improves selection performance. The timing statistics are largely insignificant throughout the sample period and are not sensitive to the benchmark model. Evidence of timing and selecting abilities is obtained in a small number of funds which is not sensitive to the fees structure. We also find evidence that a majority of individual funds provide zero (very few provide positive) abnormal return before fees and a significantly negative return after fees. At the negative end of the tail of performance distribution, our resampling tests fail to reject the role of bad luck in the poor performance of funds and we conclude that most of them are merely ‘unlucky’.