Application of the Boundary Element Method to the Analysis of Bridge Abutments

The B.E. technique is applied to an interesting dynamic problem: the interaction between bridges and their abutments. Several two-dimensional cases have been tested in relation with previously published analytical results. A three-dimensional case is also shown and different considerations in relation with the accuracy of the method are described.

On-line breath analysis of volatile organic compounds as a method for colorectal cancer detection

Background: Analysis of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in breath is an emerging approach for cancer diagnosis, but little is known about its potential use as a biomarker for colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated whether a combination of VOCs could distinct CRC patients from healthy volunteers. Methods: In a pilot study, we prospectively analyzed breath exhalations of 38 CRC patient and 43 healthy controls all scheduled for colonoscopy, older than 50 in the average-risk category. The samples were ionized and analyzed using a Secondary ElectroSpray Ionization (SESI) coupled with a Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (SESI-MS). After a minimum of 2 hours fasting, volunteers deeply exhaled into the system. Each test requires three soft exhalations and takes less than ten minutes. No breath condensate or collection are required and VOCs masses are detected in real time, also allowing for a spirometric profile to be analyzed along with the VOCs. A new sampling system precludes ambient air from entering the system, so background contamination is reduced by an overall factor of ten. Potential confounding variables from the patient or the environment that could interfere with results were analyzed. Results: 255 VOCs, with masses ranging from 30 to 431 Dalton have been identified in the exhaled breath. Using a classification technique based on the ROC curve for each VOC, a set of 9 biomarkers discriminating the presence of CRC from healthy volunteers was obtained, showing an average recognition rate of 81.94%, a sensitivity of 87.04% and specificity of 76.85%. Conclusions: A combination of cualitative and cuantitative analysis of VOCs in the exhaled breath could be a powerful diagnostic tool for average-risk CRC population. These results should be taken with precaution, as many endogenous or exogenous contaminants could interfere as confounding variables. On-line analysis with SESI-MS is less time-consuming and doesn’t need sample preparation. We are recruiting in a new pilot study including breath cleaning procedures and spirometric analysis incorporated into the postprocessing algorithms, to better control for confounding variables.

Risk analysis for UAV safe operations: a rationalization for an agricultural environment

The road to the automation of the agricultural processes passes through the safe operation of the autonomous vehicles. This requirement is a fact in ground mobile units, but it still has not well defined for the aerial robots (UAVs) mainly because the normative and legislation are quite diffuse or even inexistent. Therefore, to define a common and global policy is the challenge to tackle. This characterization has to be addressed from the field experience. Accordingly, this paper presents the work done in this direction, based on the analysis of the most common sources of hazards when using UAV's for agricultural tasks. The work, based on the ISO 31000 normative, has been carried out by applying a three-step structure that integrates the identification, assessment and reduction procedures. The present paper exposes how this method has been applied to analyze previous accidents and malfunctions during UAV operations in order to obtain real failure causes. It has allowed highlighting common risks and hazardous sources and proposing specific guards and safety measures for the agricultural context.

Maximum likelihood estimation of new state space models for operational modal analysis

The modal analysis of a structural system consists on computing its vibrational modes. The experimental way to estimate these modes requires to excite the system with a measured or known input and then to measure the system output at different points using sensors. Finally, system inputs and outputs are used to compute the modes of vibration. When the system refers to large structures like buildings or bridges, the tests have to be performed in situ, so it is not possible to measure system inputs such as wind, traffic, . . .Even if a known input is applied, the procedure is usually difficult and expensive, and there are still uncontrolled disturbances acting at the time of the test. These facts led to the idea of computing the modes of vibration using only the measured vibrations and regardless of the inputs that originated them, whether they are ambient vibrations (wind, earthquakes, . . . ) or operational loads (traffic, human loading, . . . ). This procedure is usually called Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), and in general consists on to fit a mathematical model to the measured data assuming the unobserved excitations are realizations of a stationary stochastic process (usually white noise processes). Then, the modes of vibration are computed from the estimated model. The first issue investigated in this thesis is the performance of the Expectation- Maximization (EM) algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of the state space model in the field of OMA. The algorithm is described in detail and it is analysed how to apply it to vibration data. After that, it is compared to another well known method, the Stochastic Subspace Identification algorithm. The maximum likelihood estimate enjoys some optimal properties from a statistical point of view what makes it very attractive in practice, but the most remarkable property of the EM algorithm is that it can be used to address a wide range of situations in OMA. In this work, three additional state space models are proposed and estimated using the EM algorithm: • The first model is proposed to estimate the modes of vibration when several tests are performed in the same structural system. Instead of analyse record by record and then compute averages, the EM algorithm is extended for the joint estimation of the proposed state space model using all the available data. • The second state space model is used to estimate the modes of vibration when the number of available sensors is lower than the number of points to be tested. In these cases it is usual to perform several tests changing the position of the sensors from one test to the following (multiple setups of sensors). Here, the proposed state space model and the EM algorithm are used to estimate the modal parameters taking into account the data of all setups. • And last, a state space model is proposed to estimate the modes of vibration in the presence of unmeasured inputs that cannot be modelled as white noise processes. In these cases, the frequency components of the inputs cannot be separated from the eigenfrequencies of the system, and spurious modes are obtained in the identification process. The idea is to measure the response of the structure corresponding to different inputs; then, it is assumed that the parameters common to all the data correspond to the structure (modes of vibration), and the parameters found in a specific test correspond to the input in that test. The problem is solved using the proposed state space model and the EM algorithm. Resumen El análisis modal de un sistema estructural consiste en calcular sus modos de vibración. Para estimar estos modos experimentalmente es preciso excitar el sistema con entradas conocidas y registrar las salidas del sistema en diferentes puntos por medio de sensores. Finalmente, los modos de vibración se calculan utilizando las entradas y salidas registradas. Cuando el sistema es una gran estructura como un puente o un edificio, los experimentos tienen que realizarse in situ, por lo que no es posible registrar entradas al sistema tales como viento, tráfico, . . . Incluso si se aplica una entrada conocida, el procedimiento suele ser complicado y caro, y todavía están presentes perturbaciones no controladas que excitan el sistema durante el test. Estos hechos han llevado a la idea de calcular los modos de vibración utilizando sólo las vibraciones registradas en la estructura y sin tener en cuenta las cargas que las originan, ya sean cargas ambientales (viento, terremotos, . . . ) o cargas de explotación (tráfico, cargas humanas, . . . ). Este procedimiento se conoce en la literatura especializada como Análisis Modal Operacional, y en general consiste en ajustar un modelo matemático a los datos registrados adoptando la hipótesis de que las excitaciones no conocidas son realizaciones de un proceso estocástico estacionario (generalmente ruido blanco). Posteriormente, los modos de vibración se calculan a partir del modelo estimado. El primer problema que se ha investigado en esta tesis es la utilización de máxima verosimilitud y el algoritmo EM (Expectation-Maximization) para la estimación del modelo espacio de los estados en el ámbito del Análisis Modal Operacional. El algoritmo se describe en detalle y también se analiza como aplicarlo cuando se dispone de datos de vibraciones de una estructura. A continuación se compara con otro método muy conocido, el método de los Subespacios. Los estimadores máximo verosímiles presentan una serie de propiedades que los hacen óptimos desde un punto de vista estadístico, pero la propiedad más destacable del algoritmo EM es que puede utilizarse para resolver un amplio abanico de situaciones que se presentan en el Análisis Modal Operacional. En este trabajo se proponen y estiman tres modelos en el espacio de los estados: • El primer modelo se utiliza para estimar los modos de vibración cuando se dispone de datos correspondientes a varios experimentos realizados en la misma estructura. En lugar de analizar registro a registro y calcular promedios, se utiliza algoritmo EM para la estimación conjunta del modelo propuesto utilizando todos los datos disponibles. • El segundo modelo en el espacio de los estados propuesto se utiliza para estimar los modos de vibración cuando el número de sensores disponibles es menor que vi Resumen el número de puntos que se quieren analizar en la estructura. En estos casos es usual realizar varios ensayos cambiando la posición de los sensores de un ensayo a otro (múltiples configuraciones de sensores). En este trabajo se utiliza el algoritmo EM para estimar los parámetros modales teniendo en cuenta los datos de todas las configuraciones. • Por último, se propone otro modelo en el espacio de los estados para estimar los modos de vibración en la presencia de entradas al sistema que no pueden modelarse como procesos estocásticos de ruido blanco. En estos casos, las frecuencias de las entradas no se pueden separar de las frecuencias del sistema y se obtienen modos espurios en la fase de identificación. La idea es registrar la respuesta de la estructura correspondiente a diferentes entradas; entonces se adopta la hipótesis de que los parámetros comunes a todos los registros corresponden a la estructura (modos de vibración), y los parámetros encontrados en un registro específico corresponden a la entrada en dicho ensayo. El problema se resuelve utilizando el modelo propuesto y el algoritmo EM.

Optical systems design using the SMS method and optimizations

Resumen El diseño de sistemas ópticos, entendido como un arte por algunos, como una ciencia por otros, se ha realizado durante siglos. Desde los egipcios hasta nuestros días los sistemas de formación de imagen han ido evolucionando así como las técnicas de diseño asociadas. Sin embargo ha sido en los últimos 50 años cuando las técnicas de diseño han experimentado su mayor desarrollo y evolución, debido, en parte, a la aparición de nuevas técnicas de fabricación y al desarrollo de ordenadores cada vez más potentes que han permitido el cálculo y análisis del trazado de rayos a través de los sistemas ópticos de forma rápida y eficiente. Esto ha propiciado que el diseño de sistemas ópticos evolucione desde los diseños desarrollados únicamente a partir de la óptica paraxial hasta lo modernos diseños realizados mediante la utilización de diferentes técnicas de optimización multiparamétrica. El principal problema con el que se encuentra el diseñador es que las diferentes técnicas de optimización necesitan partir de un diseño inicial el cual puede fijar las posibles soluciones. Dicho de otra forma, si el punto de inicio está lejos del mínimo global, o diseño óptimo para las condiciones establecidas, el diseño final puede ser un mínimo local cerca del punto de inicio y lejos del mínimo global. Este tipo de problemática ha llevado al desarrollo de sistemas globales de optimización que cada vez sean menos sensibles al punto de inicio de la optimización. Aunque si bien es cierto que es posible obtener buenos diseños a partir de este tipo de técnicas, se requiere de muchos intentos hasta llegar a la solución deseada, habiendo un entorno de incertidumbre durante todo el proceso, puesto que no está asegurado el que se llegue a la solución óptima. El método de las Superficies Múltiples Simultaneas (SMS), que nació como una herramienta de cálculo de concentradores anidólicos, se ha demostrado como una herramienta también capaz utilizarse para el diseño de sistemas ópticos formadores de imagen, aunque hasta la fecha se ha utilizado para el diseño puntual de sistemas de formación de imagen. Esta tesis tiene por objeto presentar el SMS como un método que puede ser utilizado de forma general para el diseño de cualquier sistema óptico de focal fija o v afocal con un aumento definido así como una herramienta que puede industrializarse para ayudar al diseñador a afrontar de forma sencilla el diseño de sistemas ópticos complejos. Esta tesis está estructurada en cinco capítulos: El capítulo 1, es un capítulo de fundamentos donde se presentan los conceptos fundamentales necesarios para que el lector, aunque no posea una gran base en óptica formadora de imagen, pueda entender los planteamientos y resultados que se presentan en el resto de capítulos El capitulo 2 aborda el problema de la optimización de sistemas ópticos, donde se presenta el método SMS como una herramienta idónea para obtener un punto de partida para el proceso de optimización. Mediante un ejemplo aplicado se demuestra la importancia del punto de partida utilizado en la solución final encontrada. Además en este capítulo se presentan diferentes técnicas que permiten la interpolación y optimización de las superficies obtenidas a partir de la aplicación del SMS. Aunque en esta tesis se trabajará únicamente utilizando el SMS2D, se presenta además un método para la interpolación y optimización de las nubes de puntos obtenidas a partir del SMS3D basado en funciones de base radial (RBF). En el capítulo 3 se presenta el diseño, fabricación y medidas de un objetivo catadióptrico panorámico diseñado para trabajar en la banda del infrarrojo lejano (8-12 μm) para aplicaciones de vigilancia perimetral. El objetivo presentado se diseña utilizando el método SMS para tres frentes de onda de entrada utilizando cuatro superficies. La potencia del método de diseño utilizado se hace evidente en la sencillez con la que este complejo sistema se diseña. Las imágenes presentadas demuestran cómo el prototipo desarrollado cumple a la perfección su propósito. El capítulo 4 aborda el problema del diseño de sistemas ópticos ultra compactos, se introduce el concepto de sistemas multicanal, como aquellos sistemas ópticos compuestos por una serie de canales que trabajan en paralelo. Este tipo de sistemas resultan particularmente idóneos para él diseño de sistemas afocales. Se presentan estrategias de diseño para sistemas multicanal tanto monocromáticos como policromáticos. Utilizando la novedosa técnica de diseño que en este capítulo se presenta el diseño de un telescopio de seis aumentos y medio. En el capítulo 5 se presenta una generalización del método SMS para rayos meridianos. En este capítulo se presenta el algoritmo que debe utilizarse para el diseño de cualquier sistema óptico de focal fija. La denominada optimización fase 1 se vi introduce en el algoritmo presentado de forma que mediante el cambio de las condiciones iníciales del diseño SMS que, aunque el diseño se realice para rayos meridianos, los rayos skew tengan un comportamiento similar. Para probar la potencia del algoritmo desarrollado se presenta un conjunto de diseños con diferente número de superficies. La estabilidad y potencia del algoritmo se hace evidente al conseguirse por primera vez el diseño de un sistema de seis superficies diseñado por SMS. vii Abstract The design of optical systems, considered an art by some and a science by others, has been developed for centuries. Imaging optical systems have been evolving since Ancient Egyptian times, as have design techniques. Nevertheless, the most important developments in design techniques have taken place over the past 50 years, in part due to the advances in manufacturing techniques and the development of increasingly powerful computers, which have enabled the fast and efficient calculation and analysis of ray tracing through optical systems. This has led to the design of optical systems evolving from designs developed solely from paraxial optics to modern designs created by using different multiparametric optimization techniques. The main problem the designer faces is that the different optimization techniques require an initial design which can set possible solutions as a starting point. In other words, if the starting point is far from the global minimum or optimal design for the set conditions, the final design may be a local minimum close to the starting point and far from the global minimum. This type of problem has led to the development of global optimization systems which are increasingly less sensitive to the starting point of the optimization process. Even though it is possible to obtain good designs from these types of techniques, many attempts are necessary to reach the desired solution. This is because of the uncertain environment due to the fact that there is no guarantee that the optimal solution will be obtained. The Simultaneous Multiple Surfaces (SMS) method, designed as a tool to calculate anidolic concentrators, has also proved useful for the design of image-forming optical systems, although until now it has occasionally been used for the design of imaging systems. This thesis aims to present the SMS method as a technique that can be used in general for the design of any optical system, whether with a fixed focal or an afocal with a defined magnification, and also as a tool that can be commercialized to help designers in the design of complex optical systems. The thesis is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 establishes the basics by presenting the fundamental concepts which the reader needs to acquire, even if he/she doesn‟t have extensive knowledge in the field viii of image-forming optics, in order to understand the steps taken and the results obtained in the following chapters. Chapter 2 addresses the problem of optimizing optical systems. Here the SMS method is presented as an ideal tool to obtain a starting point for the optimization process. The importance of the starting point for the final solution is demonstrated through an example. Additionally, this chapter introduces various techniques for the interpolation and optimization of the surfaces obtained through the application of the SMS method. Even though in this thesis only the SMS2D method is used, we present a method for the interpolation and optimization of clouds of points obtained though the SMS3D method, based on radial basis functions (RBF). Chapter 3 presents the design, manufacturing and measurement processes of a catadioptric panoramic lens designed to work in the Long Wavelength Infrared (LWIR) (8-12 microns) for perimeter surveillance applications. The lens presented is designed by using the SMS method for three input wavefronts using four surfaces. The powerfulness of the design method used is revealed through the ease with which this complex system is designed. The images presented show how the prototype perfectly fulfills its purpose. Chapter 4 addresses the problem of designing ultra-compact optical systems. The concept of multi-channel systems, such as optical systems composed of a series of channels that work in parallel, is introduced. Such systems are especially suitable for the design of afocal systems. We present design strategies for multichannel systems, both monochromatic and polychromatic. A telescope designed with a magnification of six-and-a-half through the innovative technique exposed in this chapter is presented. Chapter 5 presents a generalization of the SMS method for meridian rays. The algorithm to be used for the design of any fixed focal optics is revealed. The optimization known as phase 1 optimization is inserted into the algorithm so that, by changing the initial conditions of the SMS design, the skew rays have a similar behavior, despite the design being carried out for meridian rays. To test the power of the developed algorithm, a set of designs with a different number of surfaces is presented. The stability and strength of the algorithm become apparent when the first design of a system with six surfaces if obtained through the SMS method.

Analysis of Magnetic Nozzles For Space Plasma Thrusters = Análisis de Toberas Magnéticas para Motores Espaciales de Plasma

Esta tesis presenta un análisis teórico del funcionamiento de toberas magnéticas para la propulsión espacial por plasmas. El estudio está basado en un modelo tridimensional y bi-fluido de la expansión supersónica de un plasma caliente en un campo magnético divergente. El modelo básico es ampliado progresivamente con la inclusión de términos convectivos dominantes de electrones, el campo magnético inducido por el plasma, poblaciones electrónicas múltiples a distintas temperaturas, y la capacidad de integrar el flujo en la región de expansión lejana. La respuesta hiperbólica del plasma es integrada con alta precisión y eficiencia haciendo uso del método de las líneas características. Se realiza una caracterización paramétrica de la expansión 2D del plasma en términos del grado de magnetización de iones, la geometría del campo magnético, y el perfil inicial del plasma. Se investigan los mecanismos de aceleración, mostrando que el campo ambipolar convierte la energía interna de electrones en energía dirigida de iones. Las corrientes diamagnéticas de Hall, que pueden hallarse distribuidas en el volumen del plasma o localizadas en una delgada capa de corriente en el borde del chorro, son esenciales para la operación de la tobera, ya que la fuerza magnética repulsiva sobre ellas es la encargada de confinar radialmente y acelerar axialmente el plasma. El empuje magnético es la reacción a esta fuerza sobre el motor. La respuesta del plasma muestra la separación gradual hacia adentro de los tubos de iones respecto de los magnéticos, lo cual produce la formación de corrientes eléctricas longitudinales y pone el plasma en rotación. La ganancia de empuje obtenida y las pérdidas radiales de la pluma de plasma se evalúan en función de los parámetros de diseño. Se analiza en detalle la separación magnética del plasma aguas abajo respecto a las líneas magnéticas (cerradas sobre sí mismas), necesaria para la aplicación de la tobera magnética a fines propulsivos. Se demuestra que tres teorías existentes sobre separación, que se fundamentan en la resistividad del plasma, la inercia de electrones, y el campo magnético que induce el plasma, son inadecuadas para la tobera magnética propulsiva, ya que producen separación hacia afuera en lugar de hacia adentro, aumentando la divergencia de la pluma. En su lugar, se muestra que la separación del plasma tiene lugar gracias a la inercia de iones y la desmagnetización gradual del plasma que tiene lugar aguas abajo, que permiten la separación ilimitada del flujo de iones respecto a las líneas de campo en condiciones muy generales. Se evalúa la cantidad de plasma que permanece unida al campo magnético y retorna hacia el motor a lo largo de las líneas cerradas de campo, mostrando que es marginal. Se muestra cómo el campo magnético inducido por el plasma incrementa la divergencia de la tobera magnética y por ende de la pluma de plasma en el caso propulsivo, contrariamente a las predicciones existentes. Se muestra también cómo el inducido favorece la desmagnetización del núcleo del chorro, acelerando la separación magnética. La hipótesis de ambipolaridad de corriente local, común a varios modelos de tobera magnética existentes, es discutida críticamente, mostrando que es inadecuada para el estudio de la separación de plasma. Una inconsistencia grave en la derivación matemática de uno de los modelos más aceptados es señalada y comentada. Incluyendo una especie adicional de electrones supratérmicos en el modelo, se estudia la formación y geometría de dobles capas eléctricas en el interior del plasma. Cuando dicha capa se forma, su curvatura aumenta cuanto más periféricamente se inyecten los electrones supratérmicos, cuanto menor sea el campo magnético, y cuanto más divergente sea la tobera magnética. El plasma con dos temperaturas electrónicas posee un mayor ratio de empuje magnético frente a total. A pesar de ello, no se encuentra ninguna ventaja propulsiva de las dobles capas, reforzando las críticas existentes frente a las propuestas de estas formaciones como un mecanismo de empuje. Por último, se presenta una formulación general de modelos autosemejantes de la expansión 2D de una pluma no magnetizada en el vacío. El error asociado a la hipótesis de autosemejanza es calculado, mostrando que es pequeño para plumas hipersónicas. Tres modelos de la literatura son particularizados a partir de la formulación general y comparados. Abstract This Thesis presents a theoretical analysis of the operation of magnetic nozzles for plasma space propulsion. The study is based on a two-dimensional, two-fluid model of the supersonic expansion of a hot plasma in a divergent magnetic field. The basic model is extended progressively to include the dominant electron convective terms, the plasma-induced magnetic field, multi-temperature electron populations, and the capability to integrate the plasma flow in the far expansion region. The hyperbolic plasma response is integrated accurately and efficiently with the method of the characteristic lines. The 2D plasma expansion is characterized parametrically in terms of the ion magnetization strength, the magnetic field geometry, and the initial plasma profile. Acceleration mechanisms are investigated, showing that the ambipolar electric field converts the internal electron energy into directed ion energy. The diamagnetic electron Hall current, which can be distributed in the plasma volume or localized in a thin current sheet at the jet edge, is shown to be central for the operation of the magnetic nozzle. The repelling magnetic force on this current is responsible for the radial confinement and axial acceleration of the plasma, and magnetic thrust is the reaction to this force on the magnetic coils of the thruster. The plasma response exhibits a gradual inward separation of the ion streamtubes from the magnetic streamtubes, which focuses the jet about the nozzle axis, gives rise to the formation of longitudinal currents and sets the plasma into rotation. The obtained thrust gain in the magnetic nozzle and radial plasma losses are evaluated as a function of the design parameters. The downstream plasma detachment from the closed magnetic field lines, required for the propulsive application of the magnetic nozzle, is investigated in detail. Three prevailing detachment theories for magnetic nozzles, relying on plasma resistivity, electron inertia, and the plasma-induced magnetic field, are shown to be inadequate for the propulsive magnetic nozzle, as these mechanisms detach the plume outward, increasing its divergence, rather than focusing it as desired. Instead, plasma detachment is shown to occur essentially due to ion inertia and the gradual demagnetization that takes place downstream, which enable the unbounded inward ion separation from the magnetic lines beyond the turning point of the outermost plasma streamline under rather general conditions. The plasma fraction that remains attached to the field and turns around along the magnetic field back to the thruster is evaluated and shown to be marginal. The plasmainduced magnetic field is shown to increase the divergence of the nozzle and the resulting plasma plume in the propulsive case, and to enhance the demagnetization of the central part of the plasma jet, contrary to existing predictions. The increased demagnetization favors the earlier ion inward separation from the magnetic field. The local current ambipolarity assumption, common to many existing magnetic nozzle models, is critically discussed, showing that it is unsuitable for the study of plasma detachment. A grave mathematical inconsistency in a well-accepted model, related to the acceptance of this assumption, is found out and commented on. The formation and 2D shape of electric double layers in the plasma expansion is studied with the inclusion of an additional suprathermal electron population in the model. When a double layer forms, its curvature is shown to increase the more peripherally suprathermal electrons are injected, the lower the magnetic field strength, and the more divergent the magnetic nozzle is. The twoelectron- temperature plasma is seen to have a greater magnetic-to-total thrust ratio. Notwithstanding, no propulsive advantage of the double layer is found, supporting and reinforcing previous critiques to their proposal as a thrust mechanism. Finally, a general framework of self-similar models of a 2D unmagnetized plasma plume expansion into vacuum is presented and discussed. The error associated with the self-similarity assumption is calculated and shown to be small for hypersonic plasma plumes. Three models of the literature are recovered as particularizations from the general framework and compared.

An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis

Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.

Application of a Bayesian/Generalised Least-Squares method to generate correlations between independent neutron fission yield data

Fission product yields are fundamental parameters for several nuclear engineering calculations and in particular for burn-up/activation problems. The impact of their uncertainties was widely studied in the past and valuations were released, although still incomplete. Recently, the nuclear community expressed the need for full fission yield covariance matrices to produce inventory calculation results that take into account the complete uncertainty data. In this work, we studied and applied a Bayesian/generalised least-squares method for covariance generation, and compared the generated uncertainties to the original data stored in the JEFF-3.1.2 library. Then, we focused on the effect of fission yield covariance information on fission pulse decay heat results for thermal fission of 235U. Calculations were carried out using different codes (ACAB and ALEPH-2) after introducing the new covariance values. Results were compared with those obtained with the uncertainty data currently provided by the library. The uncertainty quantification was performed with the Monte Carlo sampling technique. Indeed, correlations between fission yields strongly affect the statistics of decay heat. Introduction Nowadays, any engineering calculation performed in the nuclear field should be accompanied by an uncertainty analysis. In such an analysis, different sources of uncertainties are taken into account. Works such as those performed under the UAM project (Ivanov, et al., 2013) treat nuclear data as a source of uncertainty, in particular cross-section data for which uncertainties given in the form of covariance matrices are already provided in the major nuclear data libraries. Meanwhile, fission yield uncertainties were often neglected or treated shallowly, because their effects were considered of second order compared to cross-sections (Garcia-Herranz, et al., 2010). However, the Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC)

Nitrous oxide emissions from European agriculture - an analysis of variability and drivers of emissions from field experiments

Nitrous oxide emissions from a network of agricultural experiments in Europe were used to explore the relative importance of site and management controls of emissions. At each site, a selection of management interventions were compared within replicated experimental designs in plot-based experiments. Arable experiments were conducted at Beano in Italy, El Encin in Spain, Foulum in Denmark, Logarden in Sweden, Maulde in Belgium CE1, Paulinenaue in Germany, and Tulloch in the UK. Grassland experiments were conducted at Crichton, Nafferton and Peaknaze in the UK, Godollo in Hungary, Rzecin in Poland, Zarnekow in Germany and Theix in France. Nitrous oxide emissions were measured at each site over a period of at least two years using static chambers. Emissions varied widely between sites and as a result of manipulation treatments. Average site emissions (throughout the study period) varied between 0.04 and 21.21 kg N2O-N ha−1yr−1, with the largest fluxes and variability associated with the grassland sites. Total nitrogen addition was found to be the single most important deter- minant of emissions, accounting for 15 % of the variance (using linear regression) in the data from the arable sites (p<0.0001), and 77 % in the grassland sites. The annual emissions from arable sites were significantly greater than those that would be predicted by IPCC default emission fac- tors. Variability of N2O emissions within sites that occurred as a result of manipulation treatments was greater than that resulting from site-to-site and year-to-year variation, highlighting the importance of management interventions in contributing to greenhouse gas mitigation

Teaching based on the case method of building collective protection

One of the fundamental aspects in the adaptation of the teaching to the European higher education is changing based models of teacher education to models based on student learning. In this work we present an educational experience developed with the teaching method based on the case method, with a clearly multidisciplinary. The experience has been developed in the teaching of analysis and verification of safety rails. This is a multidisciplinary field that presents great difficulties during their teaching. The use of the case method has given good results in the competences achieved by students

Analysis of teaching experience based on teaching by the case method. Application to reinforcing wooden floors

The technique of reinforcement of wooden floors is a matter clearly multidisciplinary. The teaching of the subject using the "traditional" method, explaining the theory first and then proposing and solving problems has not been successful. This paper discusses the results of a teaching experiencie. It has been the teaching of the subject by the case method. The results are clearly superior to those obtained with the traditional methodology.

Analysis and suppression of reflections in far-field antenna measurement ranges

This paper presents the analysis of the reflections in two kind of spherical far field ranges: one if the classical acquisition where the AUT is rotated and the second one corresponds to the systems where the AUT is fixed and the antenna probe is rotated. In large far field systems this is not possible, but this can be used to the measurement of small antennas, for instance, with the SATIMO StarGate system. In both cases, it is assumed that only one frequency is acquired and the results should be improved cut by cut, in order not to lose the advantages or far field measurements. Finally, some practical results are studied using measurements of one antenna in the outdoor far field facility of LIT INPE in Brazil.

Empirical analysis of traffic volume for the application of the options theory to highway concessions

*************************************************************************************** EL WCTR es un Congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte que hasta el 2010 publicaba sus libros de abstracts con ISBN. Por ello consideramos que debería seguir teníendose en cuenta para los indicadores de calidad ******************************************************************************************* Investment projects in the field of transportation infrastructures have a high degree of uncertainty and require an important amount of resources. In highway concessions in particular, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project by means of the discount of cash flows, may lead to erroneous results when the project incorporates certain flexibility. In these cases, the theory of real options is an alternative tool for the valuation of concessions. When the variable that generates uncertainty (in our case, the traffic) follows a random walk (or Geometric Brownian Motion), we can calculate the value of the options embedded in the contract starting directly from the process followed by that variable. This procedure notably simplifies the calculation method. In order to test the hypothesis of the evolution of traffic as a Geometric Brownian Motion, we have used the available series of traffic in Spanish highways, and we have applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach, which is the most widely used test for this kind of study. The main result of the analysis is that we cannot reject the hypothesis that traffic follows a Geometric Brownian Motion in the majority of both toll highways and free highways in Spain.

A bankable method for the field testingor a CPV plant

The bankability of CPV projects is an important issue to pave the way toward a swift and sustained growth in this technology. The bankability of a PV plant is generally addressed through the modeling of its energy yield under a b aseline loss scenario, followed by an on-site measurement campaign aimed at verifying its energetic behavior. The main difference between PV and CPV resides in the proper CPV modules, in particular in the inclusion of optical lements and III-V multijunction cells that are much more sensitive to spectral variations than xSi cells, while the rest of the system behaves in a way that possesses many common points with xSi technology. The modeling of the DC power output of a CPV system thus requires several impo rtant second order parameters to be considered, mainly related to optics, spectral direct solar radiation, wind speed, tracker accuracy and heat dissipation of cells.

Bayesian scene analysis for multi-camera 3D tracking and camera positioning

Los sistemas de seguimiento mono-cámara han demostrado su notable capacidad para el análisis de trajectorias de objectos móviles y para monitorización de escenas de interés; sin embargo, tanto su robustez como sus posibilidades en cuanto a comprensión semántica de la escena están fuertemente limitadas por su naturaleza local y monocular, lo que los hace insuficientes para aplicaciones realistas de videovigilancia. El objetivo de esta tesis es la extensión de las posibilidades de los sistemas de seguimiento de objetos móviles para lograr un mayor grado de robustez y comprensión de la escena. La extensión propuesta se divide en dos direcciones separadas. La primera puede considerarse local, ya que está orientada a la mejora y enriquecimiento de las posiciones estimadas para los objetos móviles observados directamente por las cámaras del sistema; dicha extensión se logra mediante el desarrollo de un sistema multi-cámara de seguimiento 3D, capaz de proporcionar consistentemente las posiciones 3D de múltiples objetos a partir de las observaciones capturadas por un conjunto de sensores calibrados y con campos de visión solapados. La segunda extensión puede considerarse global, dado que su objetivo consiste en proporcionar un contexto global para relacionar las observaciones locales realizadas por una cámara con una escena de mucho mayor tamaño; para ello se propone un sistema automático de localización de cámaras basado en las trayectorias observadas de varios objetos móviles y en un mapa esquemático de la escena global monitorizada. Ambas líneas de investigación se tratan utilizando, como marco común, técnicas de estimación bayesiana: esta elección está justificada por la versatilidad y flexibilidad proporcionada por dicho marco estadístico, que permite la combinación natural de múltiples fuentes de información sobre los parámetros a estimar, así como un tratamiento riguroso de la incertidumbre asociada a las mismas mediante la inclusión de modelos de observación específicamente diseñados. Además, el marco seleccionado abre grandes posibilidades operacionales, puesto que permite la creación de diferentes métodos numéricos adaptados a las necesidades y características específicas de distintos problemas tratados. El sistema de seguimiento 3D con múltiples cámaras propuesto está específicamente diseñado para permitir descripciones esquemáticas de las medidas realizadas individualmente por cada una de las cámaras del sistema: esta elección de diseño, por tanto, no asume ningún algoritmo específico de detección o seguimiento 2D en ninguno de los sensores de la red, y hace que el sistema propuesto sea aplicable a redes reales de vigilancia con capacidades limitadas tanto en términos de procesamiento como de transmision. La combinación robusta de las observaciones capturadas individualmente por las cámaras, ruidosas, incompletas y probablemente contaminadas por falsas detecciones, se basa en un metodo de asociación bayesiana basado en geometría y color: los resultados de dicha asociación permiten el seguimiento 3D de los objetos de la escena mediante el uso de un filtro de partículas. El sistema de fusión de observaciones propuesto tiene, como principales características, una gran precisión en términos de localización 3D de objetos, y una destacable capacidad de recuperación tras eventuales errores debidos a un número insuficiente de datos de entrada. El sistema automático de localización de cámaras se basa en la observación de múltiples objetos móviles y un mapa esquemático de las áreas transitables del entorno monitorizado para inferir la posición absoluta de dicho sensor. Para este propósito, se propone un novedoso marco bayesiano que combina modelos dinámicos inducidos por el mapa en los objetos móviles presentes en la escena con las trayectorias observadas por la cámara, lo que representa un enfoque nunca utilizado en la literatura existente. El sistema de localización se divide en dos sub-tareas diferenciadas, debido a que cada una de estas tareas requiere del diseño de algoritmos específicos de muestreo para explotar en profundidad las características del marco desarrollado: por un lado, análisis de la ambigüedad del caso específicamente tratado y estimación aproximada de la localización de la cámara, y por otro, refinado de la localización de la cámara. El sistema completo, diseñado y probado para el caso específico de localización de cámaras en entornos de tráfico urbano, podría tener aplicación también en otros entornos y sensores de diferentes modalidades tras ciertas adaptaciones. ABSTRACT Mono-camera tracking systems have proved their capabilities for moving object trajectory analysis and scene monitoring, but their robustness and semantic possibilities are strongly limited by their local and monocular nature and are often insufficient for realistic surveillance applications. This thesis is aimed at extending the possibilities of moving object tracking systems to a higher level of scene understanding. The proposed extension comprises two separate directions. The first one is local, since is aimed at enriching the inferred positions of the moving objects within the area of the monitored scene directly covered by the cameras of the system; this task is achieved through the development of a multi-camera system for robust 3D tracking, able to provide 3D tracking information of multiple simultaneous moving objects from the observations reported by a set of calibrated cameras with semi-overlapping fields of view. The second extension is global, as is aimed at providing local observations performed within the field of view of one camera with a global context relating them to a much larger scene; to this end, an automatic camera positioning system relying only on observed object trajectories and a scene map is designed. The two lines of research in this thesis are addressed using Bayesian estimation as a general unifying framework. Its suitability for these two applications is justified by the flexibility and versatility of that stochastic framework, which allows the combination of multiple sources of information about the parameters to estimate in a natural and elegant way, addressing at the same time the uncertainty associated to those sources through the inclusion of models designed to this end. In addition, it opens multiple possibilities for the creation of different numerical methods for achieving satisfactory and efficient practical solutions to each addressed application. The proposed multi-camera 3D tracking method is specifically designed to work on schematic descriptions of the observations performed by each camera of the system: this choice allows the use of unspecific off-the-shelf 2D detection and/or tracking subsystems running independently at each sensor, and makes the proposal suitable for real surveillance networks with moderate computational and transmission capabilities. The robust combination of such noisy, incomplete and possibly unreliable schematic descriptors relies on a Bayesian association method, based on geometry and color, whose results allow the tracking of the targets in the scene with a particle filter. The main features exhibited by the proposal are, first, a remarkable accuracy in terms of target 3D positioning, and second, a great recovery ability after tracking losses due to insufficient input data. The proposed system for visual-based camera self-positioning uses the observations of moving objects and a schematic map of the passable areas of the environment to infer the absolute sensor position. To this end, a new Bayesian framework combining trajectory observations and map-induced dynamic models for moving objects is designed, which represents an approach to camera positioning never addressed before in the literature. This task is divided into two different sub-tasks, setting ambiguity analysis and approximate position estimation, on the one hand, and position refining, on the other, since they require the design of specific sampling algorithms to correctly exploit the discriminative features of the developed framework. This system, designed for camera positioning and demonstrated in urban traffic environments, can also be applied to different environments and sensors of other modalities after certain required adaptations.