Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland.

Identifying 20th-century periodic coastal surge variation is strategic for the 21st-century coastal surge estimates, as surge periodicities may amplify/reduce future MSL enhanced surge forecasts. Extreme coastal surge data from Belfast Harbour (UK) tide gauges are available for 1901–2010 and provide the potential for decadal-plus periodic coastal surge analysis. Annual extreme surge-elevation distributions (sampled every 10-min) are analysed using PCA and cluster analysis to decompose variation within- and between-years to assess similarity of years in terms of Surge Climate Types, and to establish significance of any transitions in Type occurrence over time using non-parametric Markov analysis. Annual extreme surge variation is shown to be periodically organised across the 20th century. Extreme surge magnitude and distribution show a number of significant cyclonic induced multi-annual (2, 3, 5 & 6 years) cycles, as well as dominant multi-decadal (15–25 years) cycles of variation superimposed on an 80 year fluctuation in atmospheric–oceanic variation across the North Atlantic (relative to NAO/AMO interaction). The top 30 extreme surge events show some relationship with NAO per se, given that 80% are associated with westerly dominant atmospheric flows (+ NAO), but there are 20% of the events associated with blocking air massess (− NAO). Although 20% of the top 30 ranked positive surges occurred within the last twenty years, there is no unequivocal evidence of recent acceleration in extreme surge magnitude related to other than the scale of natural periodic variation.

LOTUS: A low cost, ultraviolet spectrograph

We describe the design, construction and commissioning of LOTUS; a simple, low-cost long-slit spectrograph for the Liverpool Telescope. The design is optimized for near-UV and visible wavelengths and uses all transmitting optics. It exploits the instrument focal plane field curvature to partially correct axial chromatic aberration. A stepped slit provides narrow (2.5x95 arcsec) and wide (5x25 arcsec) options that are optimized for spectral resolution and flux calibration respectively. On sky testing shows a wavelength range of 3200-6300 Angstroms with a peak system throughput (including detector quantum efficiency) of 15 per cent and wavelength dependant spectral resolution of R=225-430. By repeated observations of the symbiotic emission line star AG Peg we demonstrate the wavelength stability of the system is less than 2 Angstroms rms and is limited by the positioning of the object in the slit. The spectrograph is now in routine operation monitoring the activity of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko during its current post-perihelion apparition.

ULTRAVIOLET EMISSION LINES of Si II in QUASARS - INVESTIGATING the Si II DISASTER

The observed line intensity ratios of the Si ii λ1263 and λ1307 multiplets to that of Si ii λ1814 in the broad-line region (BLR) of quasars are both an order of magnitude larger than the theoretical values. This was first pointed out by Baldwin et al., who termed it the "Si ii disaster," and it has remained unresolved. We investigate the problem in the light of newly published atomic data for Si ii. Specifically, we perform BLR calculations using several different atomic data sets within the CLOUDY modeling code under optically thick quasar cloud conditions. In addition, we test for selective pumping by the source photons or intrinsic galactic reddening as possible causes for the discrepancy, and we also consider blending with other species. However, we find that none of the options investigated resolve the Si ii disaster, with the potential exception of microturbulent velocity broadening and line blending. We find that a larger microturbulent velocity () may solve the Si ii disaster through continuum pumping and other effects. The CLOUDY models indicate strong blending of the Si ii λ1307 multiplet with emission lines of O i, although the predicted degree of blending is incompatible with the observed λ1263/λ1307 intensity ratios. Clearly, more work is required on the quasar modeling of not just the Si ii lines but also nearby transitions (in particular those of O i) to fully investigate whether blending may be responsible for the Si ii disaster.

Water-, pH- and temperature relations of germination for the extreme xerophiles Xeromyces bisporus (FRR 0025), Aspergillus penicillioides (JH06THJ), and Eurtotium halophilicum (FRR 2471)

Water activity, temperature and pH are determinants for biotic activity of cellular systems, biosphere function and, indeed, for all life processes. This study was carried out at high concentrations of glycerol, which concurrently reduces water activity and acts as a stress protectant, to characterize the biophysical capabilities of the most extremely xerophilic organisms known. These were the fungal xerophiles: Xeromyces bisporus (FRR 0025), Aspergillus penicillioides (JH06THJ) and Eurotium halophilicum (FRR 2471). High-glycerol spores were produced and germination was determined using 38 media in the 0.995–0.637 water activity range, 33 media in the 2.80–9.80 pH range and 10 incubation temperatures, from 2 to 50°C. Water activity was modified by supplementing media with glycerol+sucrose, glycerol+NaCl and glycerol+NaCl+sucrose which are known to be biologically permissive for X. bisporus, A. penicillioides and E. halophilicum respectively. The windows and rates for spore germination were quantified for water activity, pH and temperature; symmetry/asymmetry of the germination profiles were then determined in relation to supra- and sub-optimal conditions; and pH- and temperature optima for extreme xerophilicity were quantified. The windows for spore germination were ~1 to 0.637 water activity, pH 2.80–9.80 and > 10 and < 44°C, depending on strain. Germination profiles in relation to water activity and temperature were asymmetrical because conditions known to entropically disorder cellular macromolecules, i.e. supra-optimal water activity and high temperatures, were severely inhibitory. Implications of these processes were considered in relation to the in-situ ecology of extreme conditions and environments; the study also raises a number of unanswered questions which suggest the need for new lines of experimentation.

Extreme wet conditions coincident with Bronze Age abandonment of upland areas in Britain

Abandonment of farming systems on upland areas in southwest Britain during the Late Bronze Age – some 3000 years ago – is widely considered a ‘classic’ demonstration of the impact of deteriorating climate on the vulnerability of populations in such marginal environments. Here we test the hypothesis
that climate change drove the abandonment of upland areas by developing new chronologies for humanactivity on upland areas during the Bronze Age across southwest Britain (Dartmoor, Exmoor and Bodmin Moor). We find Bronze Age activity in these areas spanned 3900–2950 calendar years ago with abandonment by 2900 calendar years ago. Holocene Irish bog and lake oak tree populations provide evidence of major shifts in hydroclimate across western Britain and Ireland, coincident with ice rafted debris layers recognized in North Atlantic marine sediments, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. We observe abandonment of
upland areas in southwest Britain coinciding with a sustained period of extreme wet conditions that commenced 3100 calendar years ago. Our results are consistent with the view that climate change increased the vulnerability of these early farming communities and led to a less intensive use of such marginal environments across Britain.

Causes of extreme variability of nest density among close and similar beaches of Boavista island (Cape Verde): From 1 to 2000 annual nests per km.

[EN] The 70 km of white sandy beaches of Boa Vista island in Cape Verde harbours one of the largest rookeries of the endangered loggerhead sea turtle, Caretta caretta. From middle June to early October, approximately 2000 to 4000 females lay up to 20000 nests annually. However, female beach selection, nesting success and nest density strongly varies among beaches and spatial patterns of nest abundance and distribution are relatively constant among seasons. The numbers of nesting activities and nests have been recorded along all beaches of the island during four nesting seasons (2007-2010)

The role of nuclear physics in supernovae and the evolution of neutron stars, Neutrino Opacities, Equation of State, Transport Coefficients, and Dark Matter Production

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

2083 – A European Declaration of Independence - An Analysis of Discourses from the Extreme

This paper analyses three of the dominating discourses Anders Behring Breivik used in his compendium, the official title of which is 2083 – A European Declaration of Independence, also known as Breivik's Manifesto. It is believed Breivik posted his Manifesto on the Internet shortly before the attacks in Norway in July, 2011. The number 2083 stands for the year when the "Western European Civil War" was expected to be completed, all traitors executed, and all Muslims deported from Europe. This article will discuss dominating discourses in the Manifesto, seen from a background of a European multicultural backlash, in which the political far-right movement is increasing. Furthermore, this article will end with a discussion of education and the importance of analysis of such phenomena within different subjects.

The Welsh Marches: Resilient Farmers? Exploring Farmers' Resilience to Extreme Weather Events in the Recent Past

In the 21st century climate change will cause a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across Europe. Investigating farmers’ resilience to extreme weather events in the past can be used to establish the inherent level of resilience farmers’ will have to respond to comparable events in the future. The Welsh Marches has experienced a range of extreme weather events including: heatwaves, flooding; prolonged rainfall; and heavy snowfall. To identify the resilience of farmers in the Marches farmers’ apparent vulnerabilities, coping capacity, social capital and adaptive capacity that have been exposed in past events are discussed. Rural isolation is identified as an exacerbating factor of farming vulnerability. Yet, this is also an apparent source of resilience as farmers are found to rely on high social capital to assist each other in emergency and challenging situations during extreme weather events. The paper concludes by indicating that more localised studies are required, situated within unique farming cultures. This will enable a more complete picture of farmers’ resilience across Europe to be established.

Reviews pages: Extreme weather events caused by climate change

Starting from the relationship between urban planning and mobility management, TeMA has gradually expanded the view of the covered topics, always remaining in the groove of rigorous scientific in-depth analysis. During the last two years a particular attention has been paid on the Smart Cities theme and on the different meanings that come with it. The last section of the journal is formed by the Review Pages. They have different aims: to inform on the problems, trends and evolutionary processes; to investigate on the paths by highlighting the advanced relationships among apparently distant disciplinary fields; to explore the interaction’s areas, experiences and potential applications; to underline interactions, disciplinary developments but also, if present, defeats and setbacks. Inside the journal the Review Pages have the task of stimulating as much as possible the circulation of ideas and the discovery of new points of view. For this reason the section is founded on a series of basic’s references, required for the identification of new and more advanced interactions. These references are the research, the planning acts, the actions and the applications, analysed and investigated both for their ability to give a systematic response to questions concerning the urban and territorial planning, and for their attention to aspects such as the environmental sustainability and the innovation in the practices. For this purpose the Review Pages are formed by five sections (Web Resources; Books; Laws; Urban Practices; News and Events), each of which examines a specific aspect of the broader information storage of interest for TeMA.

EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT EVENTS AND CHRONIC RESPIRATORY DISEASES AMONG A NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF THE UNITED STATES POPULATION

Previous studies have shown that extreme weather events are on the rise in response to our changing climate. Such events are projected to become more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting. A consistent exposure metric for measuring these extreme events as well as information regarding how these events lead to ill health are needed to inform meaningful adaptation strategies that are specific to the needs of local communities. Using federal meteorological data corresponding to 17 years (1997-2013) of the National Health Interview Survey, this research: 1) developed a location-specific exposure metric that captures individuals’ “exposure” at a spatial scale that is consistent with publicly available county-level health outcome data; 2) characterized the United States’ population in counties that have experienced higher numbers of extreme heat events and thus identified population groups likely to experience future events; and 3) developed an empirical model describing the association between exposure to extreme heat events and hay fever. This research confirmed that the natural modes of forcing (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation), seasonality, urban-rural classification, and division of country have an impact on the number extreme heat events recorded. Also, many of the areas affected by extreme heat events are shown to have a variety of vulnerable populations including women of childbearing age, people who are poor, and older adults. Lastly, this research showed that adults in the highest quartile of exposure to extreme heat events had a 7% increased odds of hay fever compared to those in the lowest quartile, suggesting that exposure to extreme heat events increases risk of hay fever among US adults.

Influence of applied uniaxial stress upon the ultraviolet absorption bands in KBr and KI

The influence of uniaxial stress upon three types of imperfections occurring in the alkali halide crystal lattice has been investigated. The imperfections are the interstitial atom, the interstitial ion, and the negative ion vacancy. The interstitial atom, or H center, is a paraelastic defect which assumes a preferential crystal orientation in the field of an external mechanical stress. From the results of the reorientation kinetics - studies, it was possible to show that H centers are not stable in the KBr crystal lattice above 2SoK. At temperatures higher than 2SoK, the H centers are transformed into two new paraelastic defects, H(ii) and H(iii), possessing the same optical absorption band as the H center but differing both from the H' center and from each other in their reorientation kinetics. A study of the wavelength dependence of the H, H(ii), and VI (Na+) centers s~owed the 'existence of three similar-polarized transitions for each of these defects. One of these transitions, located at 230 run for all of the defects studied, was determined to be too high in energy to be explained by the simple X2 - level scheme. In addition, a comparison of various properties of the four defects indicates that the last three can be described as perturbed H centers. Dichroism measurements, performed as a function of temperature and wavelengt, h on the 230-nm I band in KBr, showed this band to be a composite of a band at 234 nm due to the I center and a band at 230 nm attributed to the H center. The I center dichroism was isolated and was observed under various experimental conditions. The results of these observations are consistent with a body-centered model for the I center in which the I-center absorption band is attributed to the excitation of a p-like electron on the interstitial Br- ion. Similar measurements were also perfonned on the a band in KI. The a-band dichroism measurements were found to be consistent with an electronic transition from an s-like ground state to a p-like excited state, indicating that the a center is best described as a quasi-molecule.

A revised L-band radio-brightness sensitivity to extreme winds under tropical cyclones: The 5 year SMOS-Storm database

Five years of SMOS L-band brightness temperature data intercepting a large number of tropical cyclones (TCs) are analyzed. The storm-induced half-power radio-brightness contrast (ΔI) is defined as the difference between the brightness observed at a specific wind force and that for a smooth water surface with the same physical parameters. ΔI can be related to surface wind speed and has been estimated for ~ 300 TCs that intercept with SMOS measurements. ΔI, expressed in a common storm-centric coordinate system, shows that mean brightness contrast monotonically increases with increased storm intensity ranging from ~ 5 K for strong storms to ~ 24 K for the most intense Category 5 TCs. A remarkable feature of the 2D mean ΔI fields and their variability is that maxima are systematically found on the right quadrants of the storms in the storm-centered coordinate frame, consistent with the reported asymmetric structure of the wind and wave fields in hurricanes. These results highlight the strong potential of SMOS measurements to improve monitoring of TC intensification and evolution. An improved empirical geophysical model function (GMF) was derived using a large ensemble of co-located SMOS ΔI, aircraft and H*WIND (a multi-measurement analysis) surface wind speed data. The GMF reveals a quadratic relationship between ΔI and the surface wind speed at a height of 10 m (U10). ECMWF and NCEP analysis products and SMOS derived wind speed estimates are compared to a large ensemble of H*WIND 2D fields. This analysis confirms that the surface wind speed in TCs can effectively be retrieved from SMOS data with an RMS error on the order of 10 kt up to 100 kt. SMOS wind speed products above hurricane force (64 kt) are found to be more accurate than those derived from NWP analyses products that systematically underestimate the surface wind speed in these extreme conditions. Using co-located estimates of rain rate, we show that the L-band radio-brightness contrasts could be weakly affected by rain or ice-phase clouds and further work is required to refine the GMF in this context.

An extreme planetary system around HD 219828: one long-period super Jupiter to a hot-Neptune host star

Context. With about 2000 extrasolar planets confirmed, the results show that planetary systems have a whole range of unexpected properties. This wide diversity provides fundamental clues to the processes of planet formation and evolution. Aims: We present a full investigation of the HD 219828 system, a bright metal-rich star for which a hot Neptune has previously been detected. Methods: We used a set of HARPS, SOPHIE, and ELODIE radial velocities to search for the existence of orbiting companions to HD 219828. The spectra were used to characterise the star and its chemical abundances, as well as to check for spurious, activity induced signals. A dynamical analysis is also performed to study the stability of the system and to constrain the orbital parameters and planet masses. Results: We announce the discovery of a long period (P = 13.1 yr) massive (m sini = 15.1 MJup) companion (HD 219828 c) in a very eccentric orbit (e = 0.81). The same data confirms the existence of a hot Neptune, HD 219828 b, with a minimum mass of 21 M⊕ and a period of 3.83 days. The dynamical analysis shows that the system is stable, and that the equilibrium eccentricity of planet b is close to zero. Conclusions: The HD 219828 system is extreme and unique in several aspects. First, ammong all known exoplanet systems it presents an unusually high mass ratio. We also show that systems like HD 219828, with a hot Neptune and a long-period massive companion are more frequent than similar systems with a hot Jupiter instead. This suggests that the formation of hot Neptunes follows a different path than the formation of their hot jovian counterparts. The high mass, long period, and eccentricity of HD 219828 c also make it a good target for Gaia astrometry as well as a potential target for atmospheric characterisation, using direct imaging or high-resolution spectroscopy. Astrometric observations will allow us to derive its real mass and orbital configuration. If a transit of HD 219828 b is detected, we will be able to fully characterise the system, including the relative orbital inclinations. With a clearly known mass, HD 219828 c may become a benchmark object for the range in between giant planets and brown dwarfs.