939 resultados para Extreme Value Theory


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A serologic study was undertaken in a group of 43 patients with active paracoccidioidomycosis who were treated in the same form (ketoconazole), for identical periods of time (6 months), and folio wed-up for various periods posttherapy. The tests employed were agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) and complement fixation (FC). Also studied were 50 sera from patients with proven histoplasmosis and pulmonary aspergilloma, 30 patients with culturaly proven tuberculosis as well as 92 specimens from healthy individuals, residents in the endemic area for paracoccidioidomycosis. A single lot of yeast filtrate antigen was used throughout the study. The value of each test was measured according to GALEN and GAMBINO6. Both tests were highly sensitive, 89 and 93% respectively. Regarding their specificity, the AGID was totally specific while the CF exhibited 96.6% and 97% specificity in front of tuberculosis patients and healthy individuals respectively and 82% in comparison with patients with other mycoses. The concept of predictive value, that is, the certainty one has in accepting a positive test as diagnostic of paracoccidioidomycosis, favored the AGID procedure (100%) over the CF test. The latter could sort out with 93% certainty a patient with paracoccidioidomycosis among a group of healthy individuals and with 97.5% in the case of TB patients; when the group in question was composed by individuals with other deep mycoses, such certainty was lower (81%). The above results indicate that both the AGID and the CF tests furnish results of high confidence; one should not relay, however, in the CF alone as a means to establish the specific diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis.

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Tese para a obtenção do grau de Doutor em Economia, especialidade de Economia da Empresa

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Since 1989, five parliamentary elections have been the stage for the foundation and demise of political parties aspiring to govern the new democratic Polish state. The demise of the AWS before the 2001 elections after ten years of attempts to create a centre-right core party resulted in a new splintering of the right-wing, and the centre-right became again devoid of a pivotal formation. While Eurosceptic parties in average gain 8 percent of the vote, in the 2001 Polish parliamentary elections Eurosceptic parties gained around 20 percent of the vote. In Poland right-wing parties show an unusual propensity for Euroscepticism. The persistence and increased importance of nationalism in Poland, which has prevented the development of a strong Christian democratic party, effectively explains the levels of Euroscepticism on the right. After the autumn 2005 parliamentary elections the national conservative party, Law and Justice, formed a governing coalition with the national Catholic League of Polish Families, creating one of the first Eurosceptic governments. Although this work does not intend to provide a theorisation of party systems development, it shows that the context of European integration fostered nationalists’ divisiveness of, and provoked the splitting of the right the unusual propensity of parties for Euroscepticism makes Poland a paradigmatic case of the kind of conflicts over European integration emerging in Central and Eastern European party systems.

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Purpose – the aim of this paper is to analyse the diffusion and efficiency of ISO 9001 on different sectors of activity Design/methodology/approach – for that purpose, a holistic an integrative theoretical approach was based on the scope of the Contingency theory, the Institutional theory and the Resources-Based View (RBV). This theorethical perspective was used in a broad empirical study, using a qualitative and quantitative methodology, concerning Portuguese companies from different sectors of activity. Findings – according to the findings from both perspectives, a ranked combination of the named theoretical frame was constructed. Research limitations/implications – as to the analysis of the efficiency of ISO 9000, one of the limitations of this study lays in the consideration of just two sectors of activity, and another relates to its domestic geographical placement. Practical implications – this study used the ISO 9001 structure for the interviews and this has revealed very useful for the organizations to grasp the matters inquired. Originality/value – a relevant contribution to the state of art is achieved through the considered theoretical scope of analysis

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The effect of peel and seed removal, two commonly practiced procedures either at home or by the processing industry, on the physicochemical properties, bioactive compounds contents and antioxidant capacity of tomato fruits of four typical Portuguese cultivars (cereja, chucha, rama and redondo) were appraised. Both procedures caused significant nutritional and antioxidant activity losses in fruits of every cultivar. In general, peeling was more detrimental, since it caused a higher decrease in lycopene, bcarotene, ascorbic acid and phenolics contents (averages of 71%, 50%, 14%, and 32%, respectively) and significantly lowered the antioxidant capacity of the fruits (8% and 10%, using DPPH. and b-carotene linoleate model assays, correspondingly). Although seeds removal favored the increase of both color and sweetness, some bioactive compounds (11% of carotenoids and 24% of phenolics) as well as antioxidant capacity (5%) were loss. The studied cultivars were differently influenced by these procedures. The fruits most affected by peeling were those from redondo cultivar (-66% lycopene, -44% b-carotene, -26% ascorbic acid and -38% phenolics). Seeds removal, in turn, was more injurious for cereja tomatoes (-10% lycopene, -38% b-carotene, -25% ascorbic acid and -63% phenolics). Comparatively with the remaining ones, the rama fruits were less affected by the trimming procedures.

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RESUMO - Assiste-se a um crescimento exponencial das despesas em saúde, quer na Europa como nos Estados Unidos. Em Portugal, os gastos totais com a saúde ascenderam a 10,2% do PIB, em 2006, contra os 8,8% registados no início da década anterior. É importante perceber o que motiva este crescimento quer em termos globais, quer no que diz respeito ao consumo de recursos, bem como até em termos da despesa pública. Este projecto tem dois objectivos fundamentais: em primeiro lugar, contribuir para o estudo dos factores determinantes da procura de cuidados de saúde em Portugal e, consequentemente, determinar as elasticidades procura – preço para diferentes tipos de cuidados de saúde. Metodologia: Estudo observacional baseado na análise empírica de dados administrativos (claims) respeitantes à utilização dos cuidados de saúde por parte de 12.230 indivíduos detentores de um plano de seguro de saúde individual, numa seguradora privada em Portugal. As elasticidades procura – preço para os diferentes tipos de cuidados de saúde obtiveram-se utilizando as variações percentuais das quantidades dos diferentes cuidados de saúde, antes e depois da variação do preço pago pelo indivíduo, para cada tipo de cuidado de saúde. Resultados: De acordo com a teoria económica tradicional o aumento do preço a pagar reduz o consumo de cuidados de saúde, e a procura é elástica, ou seja, os valores da elasticidade procura – preço obtidos são superiores a 1, em valor absoluto, logo o aumento do preço levou a uma redução mais do que proporcional das quantidades procuradas. A procura de cuidados de saúde em ambulatório é mais sensível à variação do preço do que a procura de cuidados de internamento. ------- ABSTRACT - We are witnessing an exponential growth of health care expenditures around the world. In Portugal, the total expenditure on health amounted to 10.2% of GDP in 2006, against 8.8% at the beginning of previous decade. It is important to understand what motivates this growth both in overall terms, with respect to resource consumption, and even in terms of public spending. This study was designed two achieve two objectives: first, to contribute to the study of demand for health care and, more specifically, to analyze the effect of price changes on the utilization of health care services; and secondly, to estimate the demand elasticity for different types of heath care. Methodology: Observational study based on empirical analysis of administrative data (claims) from a private health insurance Company in Portugal. The sample used had information regarding 12.230 individuals. Demand elasticity for the different types of health care services was obtained by the quotient between the percentage changes in the quantity of health care services, before and after the change in the price paid by the corresponding percentage change in the price. Results: This study showed that, for all medical services, price increases were associated with reductions in the quantity of care consumed as predicted by neoclassical demand theory, and we are in the presence of an elastic demand. This means that price elasticity is greater than 1 in absolute value so the increase in the price led to a more than proportional reduction in the quantity demanded. Demand elasticity was more responsive to changes in the price of specialist and emergency care than to changes in the price of inpatient care.

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Trabalho de Projeto submetido à Escola Superior de Teatro e Cinema para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Teatro - especialização em Teatro e Comunidade.

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We generalize Wertheim's first order perturbation theory to account for the effect in the thermodynamics of the self-assembly of rings characterized by two energy scales. The theory is applied to a lattice model of patchy particles and tested against Monte Carlo simulations on a fcc lattice. These particles have 2 patches of type A and 10 patches of type B, which may form bonds AA or AB that decrease the energy by epsilon(AA) and by epsilon(AB) = r epsilon(AA), respectively. The angle theta between the 2 A-patches on each particle is fixed at 601, 90 degrees or 120 degrees. For values of r below 1/2 and above a threshold r(th)(theta) the models exhibit a phase diagram with two critical points. Both theory and simulation predict that rth increases when theta decreases. We show that the mechanism that prevents phase separation for models with decreasing values of theta is related to the formation of loops containing AB bonds. Moreover, we show that by including the free energy of B-rings ( loops containing one AB bond), the theory describes the trends observed in the simulation results, but that for the lowest values of theta, the theoretical description deteriorates due to the increasing number of loops containing more than one AB bond.

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Backgroud: O International Panel on Climate Change prevê que o aumento da temperatura média global, até ao ano de 2100, varie entre 1,4 e 5,8ºC desconhecendo-se a evolução da adaptação da população a esta subida da temperatura. Em Portugal morre-se mais no Inverno que no Verão. Mas existem evidências de repercussões na mortalidade atribuíveis ao calor extremo. Este estudo procura conhecer os grupos etários e/ou populacionais que parecem revelar vulnerabilidade acrescida à exposição a temperaturas extremas e identificar indicadores de saúde apropriados para revelar esses mesmos efeitos. Métodos: Foram analisados dados de internamentos hospitalar e mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares, respiratórias, renais, efeitos directos do frio e do calor, na população com 75 e mais anos de idade, nos distritos de Beja, Bragança e Faro, nos meses de Janeiro e Junho. Para os dados de morbilidade o período de análise foi 2002 a 2005 e para os de mortalidade de 2002 a 2004. Os dados meteorológicos analisados corresponderam aos valores da temperatura máxima e percentis da temperatura máxima, nos meses de Janeiro (P10) e Junho (P90). Os excessos de internamentos hospitalares, definidos como os dias em que ocorreram internamentos acima do valor da média mais 2 desvio padrão, foram relacionados com a distribuição das temperaturas extremas (frias abaixo do P10, quentes acima do P90.Os dias com óbitos acima do valor da média foram relacionados com a distribuição das temperaturas extremas (frias abaixo do P10, quentes acima do P90). Os indicadores propostos foram baseados em Odds Ratios e intervalos de confiança que sugeriam as estimativas mais precisas. Resultados: O grupo que revelou maior vulnerabilidade às temperaturas extremas foi o grupo dos 75 e mais anos, com doenças cardiovasculares quando exposto a temperaturas extremas, nos 3 distritos observados.O nº de dias de excesso de óbitos por doenças cardiovasculares relacionados com temperaturas extremas foi o mais elevado comparado com as restantes causas de morte. O grupo etário dos 75 e mais anos com de doenças respiratórias também é vulnerável, às temperaturas extremas frias, nos 3 distritos. Verificaram-se dias de excessos de internamentos hospitalares e óbitos por esta causa de morte, relacionados com a exposição às temperaturas extremas frias. Em Junho, não se verificou excesso de mortalidade associado à exposição a temperaturas extremas por esta causa, em qualquer dos distritos analisados. Apenas se verificou a associação entre os dias de ocorrência de internamentos hospitalares por doenças renais e o calor extremo, em Bragança. Conclusões: Foram encontradas associações estatísticas significativas entre dias de excesso de ocorrência de internamentos hospitalares ou óbitos por causa e exposição a temperaturas extremas frias e quentes possibilitando a identificação de um conjunto de indicadores de saúde ambiental apropriados para monitorizar a evolução dos padrões de morbilidade, mortalidade e susceptibilidade das populações ao longo do tempo.-------------------- Backgroud: International Panel on Climate Change estimates that the rise of mean global temperature varies between 1,4 e 5,8ºC until 2100, with unknowing evolution adaptation of populations. In Portugal we die more in Winter than in Summer time. But there are several evidences of mortality attributable to extreme eat. The proposal of this study is to know the age and/or populations groups that reveal more vulnerability to exposure to extreme temperature and identifying proper health indicators to reveal those effects. Methods: Data from hospital admissions and mortality caused by cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases and direct effects from direct exposure to extreme cold and heat, in population with 75 and more years, in Beja, Bragança and Faro districts, during January and June, were analysed. Analysis period for morbidity data was from 2002 to 2005 and form mortality was 2002 to 2004. Meteorological data analysed were maximum temperature and percentile of maximum temperature, from January (P10) and June (P90. Relationship between excess of hospital admission, defined as the days that occurred hospital admissions above mean value more 2 standards desviation and distribution of extreme temperatures were established (cold under P10 and heat above P90. Proposal indicators were based on Odds Ratios and confidence intervals, suggesting the most precises estimatives. Results: The most vulnerable group to extreme temperature were people with 75 or more years older with cardiovascular diseases, observed in the 3 districts. Number of days caused by excess cardiovascular mortality and extreme temperature were the most number of days between the other causes. The group with 75 or more years old with respiratory diseases is vulnerable too, especially to cold extreme temperature, in all the 3 districts. There were excess of days of hospital admissions and days with deaths, for this cause relating to extreme cold temperature. In June, does not funded excess of mortality associated to extreme temperature by this cause in any district of the in observation. Just was found relationship between days of hospital admissions caused by renal diseases in Bragança in days with extreme heat. Conclusions: Were found statistically significant associations between days of excess of hospital admissions or deaths and exposure to extreme cold and heat temperatures giving the possibility of identifying a core of environmental indicators proper to monitoring patterns and trends evolutions on morbidity, mortality and susceptibly of populations for a long time.

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Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

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Mestrado em Engenharia Informática - Área de Especialização em Sistemas Gráficos e Multimédia