Measuring the eco-efficiency of cement use

At present, the cement industry generates approximately 5% of the world`s anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. This share is expected to increase since demand for cement based products is forecast to multiply by a factor of 2.5 within the next 40 years and the traditional strategies to mitigate emissions, focused on the production of cement, will not be capable of compensating such growth. Therefore, additional mitigation strategies are needed, including an increase in the efficiency of cement use. This paper proposes indicators for measuring cement use efficiency, presents a benchmark based on literature data and discusses potential gains in efficiency. The binder intensity (bi) index measures the amount of binder (kg m(-3)) necessary to deliver 1 MPa of mechanical strength, and consequently express the efficiency of using binder materials. The CO(2) intensity index (ci) allows estimating the global warming potential of concrete formulations. Research benchmarks show that bi similar to 5 kg m(-3) MPa(-1) are feasible and have already been achieved for concretes >50 MPa. However, concretes with lower compressive strengths have binder intensities varying between 10 and 20 kg m(-3) MPa(-1). These values can be a result of the minimum cement content established in many standards and reveal a significant potential for performance gains. In addition, combinations of low bi and ci are shown to be feasible. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Reverberation to Improve Range and Elevation Discrimination for Small Array Sound Source Localization

Sound source localization (SSL) is an essential task in many applications involving speech capture and enhancement. As such, speaker localization with microphone arrays has received significant research attention. Nevertheless, existing SSL algorithms for small arrays still have two significant limitations: lack of range resolution, and accuracy degradation with increasing reverberation. The latter is natural and expected, given that strong reflections can have amplitudes similar to that of the direct signal, but different directions of arrival. Therefore, correctly modeling the room and compensating for the reflections should reduce the degradation due to reverberation. In this paper, we show a stronger result. If modeled correctly, early reflections can be used to provide more information about the source location than would have been available in an anechoic scenario. The modeling not only compensates for the reverberation, but also significantly increases resolution for range and elevation. Thus, we show that under certain conditions and limitations, reverberation can be used to improve SSL performance. Prior attempts to compensate for reverberation tried to model the room impulse response (RIR). However, RIRs change quickly with speaker position, and are nearly impossible to track accurately. Instead, we build a 3-D model of the room, which we use to predict early reflections, which are then incorporated into the SSL estimation. Simulation results with real and synthetic data show that even a simplistic room model is sufficient to produce significant improvements in range and elevation estimation, tasks which would be very difficult when relying only on direct path signal components.

Economic design of an X chart for short-run production

The aim of this paper is to present an economical design of an X chart for a short-run production. The process mean starts equal to mu(0) (in-control, State I) and in a random time it shifts to mu(1) > mu(0) (out-of-control, State II). The monitoring procedure consists of inspecting a single item at every m produced ones. If the measurement of the quality characteristic does not meet the control limits, the process is stopped, adjusted, and additional (r - 1) items are inspected retrospectively. The probabilistic model was developed considering only shifts in the process mean. A direct search technique is applied to find the optimum parameters which minimizes the expected cost function. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution with application to failure data

For the first time, we introduce and study some mathematical properties of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution that is a quite flexible model in analyzing positive data. It contains as special sub-models the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated Rayleigh, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and also the new Kumaraswamy exponential distribution. We provide explicit expressions for the moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are derived for the mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and Renyi entropy. The moments of the order statistics are calculated. We also discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We obtain the expected information matrix. We provide applications involving two real data sets on failure times. Finally, some multivariate generalizations of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution are discussed. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Analytic Solution Related to the Richards, Philip, and Green-Ampt Equations for Infiltration

Based on physical laws of similarity, an analytic solution of the soil water potential form of the Richards equation was derived for water infiltration into a homogeneous sand. The derivation assumes a similarity between the soil water retention function and that of the soil water content profiles taken at fixed times. The new solution successfully described soil water content profiles experimentally measured for water infiltrating downward, upward, and horizontally into a homogeneous sand and agrees with that presented by Philip in 1957. The utility of this analysis is still to be verified, but it is expected to hold for soils that have a narrow pore-size distribution before wetting and that manifest a sharp increase of water content at the wetting front during infiltration. The effect of van Genuchten`s parameters alpha and n on the application of the solution to other porous media was investigated. The solution also improves and provides a more realistic description of the infiltration process than that pioneered by Green and Ampt in 1911.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

General results for the beta-modified Weibull distribution

We study in detail the so-called beta-modified Weibull distribution, motivated by the wide use of the Weibull distribution in practice, and also for the fact that the generalization provides a continuous crossover towards cases with different shapes. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely-known distributions, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among several others. It also provides more flexibility to analyse complex real data. Various mathematical properties of this distribution are derived, including its moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are also derived for the chf, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and entropies. The estimation of parameters is approached by two methods: moments and maximum likelihood. We compare by simulation the performances of the estimates from these methods. We obtain the expected information matrix. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution.

Private valuation of carbon sequestration in forest plantations

Approval of the Clean Development Mechanism, provided for in the Kyoto Protocol, enables countries with afforested land to trade in carbon emissions reduction certificates related to carbon dioxide equivalent quantities (CO(2-e)) stored within a certain forest area. Potential CO(2-e) above base line sequestration was determined for two forest sites on commercial eucalyptus plantations in northern Brazil (Bahia). Compensation values for silvicultural regimes involving rotation lengths greater than economically optimal were computed using the Faustmann formula. Mean values obtained were US$8.16 (MgCO(2-e))(-1) and US $7.19 (MgCO(2-e))(-1) for average and high site indexes, respectively. Results show that carbon supply is more cost-efficient in highly productive sites. Annuities of US$18.8 Mg C(-1) and US$35.1 Mg C(-1) and yearly payments of US$4.4 m(-3) and US$8.2 m(-3) due for each marginal cubic meter produced were computed for high and average sites, respectively. The estimated value of the tonne of carbon defines minimum values to be paid to forest owners, in order to induce a change in silvicultural management regimes. A reduction of carbon supply could be expected as a result of an increase in wood prices, although it would not respond in a regular manner. For both sites, price elasticity of supply was found to be inelastic and increased as rotation length moved further away from economically optimal: 0.24 and 0.27 for age 11 years in average- and high-productivity sites, respectively. This would be due to biomass production potential as a limiting factor; beyond a certain threshold value. an increase in price does not sustain a proportional change in carbon storage supply. The environmental service valuation model proposed might be adequate for assessing potential supply in plantation forestry, from a private landowner perspective, with an economic opportunity cost. The model is not applicable to low commercial value forest plantations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest certification in Amazonia: standards matter

Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification promises international consumers that `green-label` timber has been logged sustainably. However, recent research indicates that this is not true for ipe (Tabebuia spp.), currently flooding the US residential decking market, much of it logged in Brazil. Uneven or non-application of minimum technical standards for certification could undermine added value and eventually the certification process itself. We examine public summary reports by third-party certifiers describing the evaluation process for certified companies in the Brazilian Amazon to determine the extent to which standards are uniformly applied and the degree to which third-party certifier requirements for compliance are consistent among properties. Current best-practice harvest systems, combined with Brazilian legal norms for harvest levels, guarantee that no certified company or community complies with FSC criteria and indicators specifying species-level management. No guidelines indicate which criteria and indicators must be enforced, or to what degree, for certification to be conferred by third-party assessors; nor do objective guidelines exist for evaluating compliance for criteria and indicators for which adequate scientific information is not yet available to identify acceptable levels. Meanwhile, certified companies are expected to monitor the long-term impacts of logging on biodiversity in addition to conducting best-practice forest management. This burden should reside elsewhere. We recommend a clarification of `sustained timber yield` that reflects current state of knowledge and practice in Amazonia. Quantifiable verifiers for best-practice forest management must be developed and consistently employed. These will need to be flexible to reflect the diversity in forest structure and dynamics that prevails across this vast region. We offer suggestions for how to achieve these goals.

WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

Economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State

The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State Brazil. Water balances were carried out on a daily basis using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, for 165 sites, considering twelve sowings dates and available water capacity in the soil of 20, 40 and 60 mm. The net revenues were estimated with a probability of occurrence of 75%, later being spatialized to Piaui State. Cowpea irrigation was shown to economically viable for all sowing dates, irrespective of the available water capacity. Net revenues varied among several regions of the State, in function of the sowing date and available water capacity in the soil. Considering a planning strategy for Piaui State, sowing on February, I was shown to be most favorable, because it enabled higher net revenue values, covering larger areas of the State.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Genetic potential of a maize population from Southern Brazil for the modified convergent-divergent selection scheme

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a very important cereal to world-wide economy which is also true for Brazil, particularly in the South region. Grain yield and plant height have been chosen as important criteria by breeders and farmers from Santa Catarina State (SC), Brazil. The objective of this work was to estimate genetic-statistic parameters associated with genetic gain for grain yield and plant height, in the first cycle of convergent-divergent half-sib selection in a maize population (MPA1) cultivated by farmers within the municipality of Anchieta (SC). Three experiments were carried out in different small farms at Anchieta using low external agronomic inputs; each experiment represented independent samples of half-sib families, which were evaluated in randomized complete blocks with three replications per location. Significant differences among half-sib families were observed for both variables in all experiments. The expected responses to truncated selection of the 25% better families in each experiment were 5.1, 5.8 and 5.2% for reducing plant height and 3.9, 5.7 and 5.0% for increasing grain yield, respectively. The magnitudes of genetic-statistic parameters estimated evidenced that the composite population MPA1 exhibits enough genetic variability to be used in cyclical process of recurrent selection. There were evidences that the genetic structure of the base population MPA1, as indicated by its genetic variability, may lead to expressive changes in the traits under selection, even under low selection pressure.

Genetic structure and mating system of Euterpe edulis Mart. populations: A comparative analysis using microsatellite and allozyme markers

A comparative study between microsatellite and allozyme markers was conducted on the genetic structure and mating system in natural populations of Euterpe edulis Mart. Three cohorts, including seedlings, saplings, and adults, were examined in 4 populations using 10 allozyme loci and 10 microsatellite loci. As expected, microsatellite markers had a much higher degree of polymorphism than allozymes, but estimates of multilocus outcrossing rate ((t) over cap (m) = 1.00), as well as estimates of genetic structure (F(IS), G(ST)), were similar for the 2 sets of markers. Estimates of R(ST), for microsatellites, were higher than those of GST, but results of both statistics revealed a close agreement for the genetic structure of the species. This study provides support for the important conclusion that allozymes are still useful and reliable markers to estimate population genetic parameters. Effects of sample size on estimates from hypervariable loci are also discussed in this paper.

Inheritance of growth habit detected by genetic linkage analysis using microsatellites in the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

The genetic linkage map for the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is a valuable tool for breeding programs. Breeders provide new cultivars that meet the requirements of farmers and consumers, such as seed color, seed size, maturity, and growth habit. A genetic study was conducted to examine the genetics behind certain qualitative traits. Growth habit is usually described as a recessive trait inherited by a single gene, and there is no consensus about the position of the locus. The aim of this study was to develop a new genetic linkage map using genic and genomic microsatellite markers and three morphological traits: growth habit, flower color, and pod tip shape. A mapping population consisting of 380 recombinant F10 lines was generated from IAC-UNA x CAL143. A total of 871 microsatellites were screened for polymorphisms among the parents, and a linkage map was obtained with 198 mapped microsatellites. The total map length was 1865.9 cM, and the average distance between markers was 9.4 cM. Flower color and pod tip shape were mapped and segregated at Mendelian ratios, as expected. The segregation ratio and linkage data analyses indicated that the determinacy growth habit was inherited as two independent and dominant genes, and a genetic model is proposed for this trait.