Does more detailed information mean better performance? An experiment in information explicitness

Purpose – Investors are now able to analyse more noise-free news to inform their trading decisions than ever before. Their expectation that more information means better performance is not supported by previous psychological experiments which argue that too much information actually impairs performance. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the degree of information explicitness improves stock market performance. Design/methodology/approach – An experiment is conducted in a computer laboratory to examine a trading simulation manipulated from a real market-shock. Participants’ performance efficiency and effectiveness are measured separately. Findings – The results indicate that the explicitness of information neither improves nor impairs participants’ performance effectiveness from the perspectives of returns, share and cash positions, and trading volumes. However, participants’ performance efficiency is significantly affected by information explicitness. Originality/value – The novel approach and findings of this research add to the knowledge of the impact of information explicitness on the quality of decision making in a financial market environment.

Comparison of interplanetary signatures of streamers and pseudostreamers

If the source of the slow solar wind is a web comprising pseudostreamer belts connected to the streamer belt, then one expects the properties of interplanetary pseudostreamer flows to be similar to those of streamer flows. That expectation is tested with data from the slow wind preceding stream interfaces in stream interaction regions at 1 AU, where the interfaces separate what was originally slow and fast wind. Pseudostreamer cases were separated from streamer cases with the aid of the streamer identification tool developed by Owens et al. (2013), and superposed epoch analysis was performed to compare the patterns of a number of plasma and composition parameters. The results reveal that pseudostreamer flows have all of the slow-wind characteristics of streamer flows except that they are slightly less pronounced than streamer characteristics when compared to fast wind. The results are consistent with the concept that the solar wind displays a continuum of dynamic states rather than only slow and fast states.

Physiological and behavioral patterns of corruption

We study the behavior and emotional arousal of the participants in an experimental auction, leading to an asymmetric social dilemma involving an auctioneer and two bidders. An antisocial transfer (bribe) which is beneficial for the auctioneer (official) is paid, if promised, by the winner of the auction. Some pro-social behavior on both the auctioneers' and the bidders' sides is observed even in the absence of any punishment mechanism (Baseline, Treatment 0). However, pro-social behavior is adopted by the vast majority of subjects when the loser of the auction can inspect the transaction between the winner and the auctioneer (Inspection, Treatment 1). The inspection and punishment mechanism is such that, if a bribe is (not) revealed, both corrupt agents (the denouncing bidder) lose(s) this period's payoffs. This renders the inspection option unprofitable for the loser and is rarely used, especially towards the end of the session, when pro-social behavior becomes pervasive. Subjects' emotional arousal was obtained through skin conductance responses. Generally speaking, our findings suggest that stronger emotions are associated with decisions deviating from pure monetary reward maximization, rather than with (un)ethical behavior per se. In fact, using response times as a measure of the subject's reflection during the decision-making process, we can associate emotional arousal with the conflict between primary or instinctive and secondary or contemplative motivations and, more specifically, with deviations from the subject's pure monetary interest.

Using experimental evolution to explore natural patterns between bacterial motility and resistance to bacteriophages

Resistance of bacteria to phages may be gained by alteration of surface proteins to which phages bind, a mechanism that is likely to be costly as these molecules typically have critical functions such as movement or nutrient uptake. To address this potential trade-off, we combine a systematic study of natural bacteria and phage populations with an experimental evolution approach. We compare motility, growth rate and susceptibility to local phages for 80 bacteria isolated from horse chestnut leaves and, contrary to expectation, find no negative association between resistance to phages and bacterial motility or growth rate. However, because correlational patterns (and their absence) are open to numerous interpretations, we test for any causal association between resistance to phages and bacterial motility using experimental evolution of a subset of bacteria in both the presence and absence of naturally associated phages. Again, we find no clear link between the acquisition of resistance and bacterial motility, suggesting that for these natural bacterial populations, phage-mediated selection is unlikely to shape bacterial motility, a key fitness trait for many bacteria in the phyllosphere. The agreement between the observed natural pattern and the experimental evolution results presented here demonstrates the power of this combined approach for testing evolutionary trade-offs.

Social citizenship, housing wealth and the cost of social care: is the Care Act 2014 'Fair'?

This article assesses the extent to which it is ‘fair’ for the government to require owner-occupiers to draw on the equity accumulated in their home to fund their social care costs. The question is stimulated by the report of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support, Fairer Care Funding (the Dilnot Commission) and the subsequent Care Act 2014. The enquiry is located within the framework of social citizenship and the new social contract. It argues that the individualistic, contractarian approach, exemplified by the Dilnot Commission and reflected in the Act, raises questions when considered from the perspective of intergenerational fairness. We argue that our concerns with the Act could be addressed by inculcating an expectation of drawing on housing wealth to fund older age: a policy of asset-based welfare.

Memory and burstiness in dynamic networks

A discrete-time random process is described, which can generate bursty sequences of events. A Bernoulli process, where the probability of an event occurring at time t is given by a fixed probability x, is modified to include a memory effect where the event probability is increased proportionally to the number of events that occurred within a given amount of time preceding t. For small values of x the interevent time distribution follows a power law with exponent −2−x. We consider a dynamic network where each node forms, and breaks connections according to this process. The value of x for each node depends on the fitness distribution, \rho(x), from which it is drawn; we find exact solutions for the expectation of the degree distribution for a variety of possible fitness distributions, and for both cases where the memory effect either is, or is not present. This work can potentially lead to methods to uncover hidden fitness distributions from fast changing, temporal network data, such as online social communications and fMRI scans.

The application of a domains based analysis to family processes: implications for assessment and therapy

Social domains are classes of interpersonal processes each with distinct procedural rules underpinning mutual understanding, emotion regulation and action. We describe the features of three domains of family life – safety, attachment and discipline/expectation – and contrast them with exploratory processes in terms of the emotions expressed, the role of certainty versus uncertainty, and the degree of hierarchy in an interaction. We argue that everything that people say and do in family life carries information about the type of interaction they are engaged in – that is, the domain. However, sometimes what they say or how they behave does not make the domain clear, or participants in the social interactions are not in the same domain (there is a domain mismatch). This may result in misunderstandings, irresolvable arguments or distress. We describe how it is possible to identify domains and judge whether they are clear and unclear, and matched and mismatched, in observed family interactions and in accounts of family processes. This then provides a focus for treatment and helps to define criteria for evaluating outcomes.

Dual semiosis analysis model managing customer-focused service innovation

Customers will not continue to pay for a service if it is perceived to be of poor quality, and/or of no value. With a paradigm shift towards business dependence on service orientated IS solutions [1], it is critical that alignment exists between service definition, delivery, and customer expectation, businesses are to ensure customer satisfaction. Services, and micro-service development, offer businesses a flexible structure for solution innovation, however, constant changes in technology, business and societal expectations means an iterative analysis solution is required to i) determine whether provider services adequately meet customer segment needs and expectations, and ii) to help guide business service innovation and development. In this paper, by incorporating multiple models, we propose a series of steps to help identify and prioritise service gaps. Moreover, the authors propose the Dual Semiosis Analysis Model, i.e. a tool that highlights where within the symbiotic customer / provider semiosis process, requirements misinterpretation, and/or service provision deficiencies occur. This paper offers the reader a powerful customer-centric tool, designed to help business managers highlight both what services are critical to customer quality perception, and where future innovation

Don’t aim too high for your kids: parental over-aspiration undermines students’ learning in mathematics

Previous research has suggested that parents’ aspirations for their children’s academic attainment can have a positive influence on children’s actual academic performance. Possible negative effects of parental over-aspiration, however, have found little attention in the psychological literature. Employing a dual-change score model with longitudinal data from a representative sample of German schoolchildren and their parents (N = 3,530; grades 5 to 10), we showed that parental aspiration and children’s mathematical achievement were linked by positive reciprocal relations over time. Importantly, we also found that parental aspiration that exceeded their expectation (i.e., over-aspiration) had negative reciprocal relations with children’s mathematical achievement. These results were fairly robust after controlling for a variety of demographic and cognitive variables such as children’s gender, age, intelligence, school type, and family SES. The results were also replicated with an independent sample of US parents and their children. These findings suggest that unrealistically high parental aspiration can be detrimental for children’s achievement.

Separating real incentives and accountability

In experimental investigations of the effect of real incentives, accountability—the implicit or explicit expectation of a decision maker that she may have to justify her decisions in front of somebody else—is often confounded with the incentives themselves. This confounding of accountability with incentives makes causal attributions of any effects found problematic. We separate accountability and incentives, and find different effects. Accountability is found to reduce preference reversals between frames, for which incentives have no effect. Incentives on the other hand are found to reduce risk seeking for losses, where accountability has no effect. In a choice task between simple and compound events, accountability increases the preference for the simple event, while incentives have a weaker effect going in the opposite direction. It is thus shown that the confounding of accountability and incentives is relevant for studies on the effect of the latter, and that existing conclusions on the effect of incentives need to be reconsidered in light of this issue.

The effect of accountability on loss aversion.

This paper investigates the effect of accountability-the expectation on the side of the decision maker of having to justify his/her decisions to somebody else-on loss aversion. Loss aversion is commonly thought to be the strongest component of risk aversion. Accountability is found to reduce the bias of loss aversion. This effect is explained by the higher cognitive effort induced by accountability, which triggers a rational check on emotional reactions at the base of loss aversion, leading to a reduction of the latter. Connections to dual-processing models are discussed.

Endogenous managerial compensation contracts in experimental quantity-setting duopolies

Given the ongoing debate on managerial compensation schemes, our paper offers empirical insights on the strategic choice of firms' owners over the terms of a managerial compensation contract, as a commitment device aiming at gaining competitive advantage in the product market. In a quantity setting duopoly we experimentally test whether firms' owners compensate their managers through contracts combining own profits either with revenues or with relative performance, and the resulting managerial behaviour in the product market. Prominent among our results is that firms' owners choose relative performance over profit revenue contracts more frequently. Further, firms' owners successfully induce a more aggressive behaviour by their managers in the market, by setting incentives which deviate from strict profit maximization.

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation1, 2 (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established3, 4, 5. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability6, 7, 8, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude1, 6, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide1, 2, 3, 4, 9. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database10, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.

Accrual-based and real earnings management before and after IFRS adoption: the case of Greece

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the use of accrual-based vs real earnings management (EM) by Greek firms, before and after the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The research is motivated by the fact that past studies have indicated the existence of significant levels of EM for Greece in particular before IFRS. Design/methodology/approach – Accrual-based earnings management (AEM) is examined by assessing performance-adjusted discretionary accruals, while real earnings management (REM) is defined in terms of abnormal levels of production costs, discretionary expenses, and cash flows from operations, for a three-year period before and after the adoption of IFRS in 2005. Findings – The authors find evidence on a statistically significant shift from AEM to REM after the adoption of IFRS, indicating the replacement of one form of EM with the other. Research limitations/implications – The validity of the results depends on the ability of the empirical models used to efficiently capture the existence of AEM and REM. Practical implications – IFRS adoption aims to improve accounting quality, especially in countries with high need for such an improvement; however, the tendency to substitute one form of EM with another highlights unintended consequences of IFRS adoption, which do not improve the informational content of financial statements if EM continues under different forms. Originality/value – Under the expectation that IFRS adoption should lead to improvements in accounting quality, this study examines whether IFRS actually led to a reduction of EM practices for a country with exceptionally high levels of EM before IFRS, by accounting for all possible forms of EM.

Large reorganizations in butterfly communities during an extreme weather event

Drought events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, which may alter the composition of ecological communities. Using a functional community metric that describes abundance, life history traits and conservation status, based upon Grime’s CSR (Competitive-Stress tolerant-Ruderal)¬ scheme, we investigated how British butterfly communities changed during an extreme drought in 1995. Throughout Britain, the total abundance of these insects had a significant tendency to increase, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition, particularly in more northerly, wetter sites. Communities tended to shift away from specialist, vulnerable species, and towards generalist, widespread species and, in the year following, communities had yet to return to equilibrium. Importantly, heterogeneity in surrounding landscapes mediated community responses to the drought event. Contrary to expectation, however, community shifts were more extreme in areas of greater topographic diversity, whilst land-cover diversity buffered community changes and limited declines in vulnerable specialist butterflies.