Interhemispheric dynamics of the African rainbelt during the late Quaternary

The spatial pattern of precipitation variability in tropical and subtropical Africa over the late Quaternary has long been debated. Prevailing hypotheses variously infer (1) insolation-controlled asymmetry of wet phases between hemispheres, (2) symmetric contraction and expansion of the tropical rainbelt, and (3) independent control on moisture available in Southern Africa via sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. In this study we use climate-model simulations covering the last glacial cycle (120 kyr) with HadCM3 and the multi-model ensembles from PMIP3 (the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project) to investigate the long-term behaviour of the African rainbelt, and test these simulations against existing empirical palaeohydrological records. Through regional model-data comparisons we find evidence for the validity of several hypotheses, with various proposed processes occurring concurrently but with different regional emphasis (e.g. asymmetric shifts at the seasonal extremes and symmetric expansions/ contractions towards West equatorial regions). Crucially, variations in rainfall are associated with multiple forcing mechanisms that vary in their dominance both spatially and temporally over the glacial cycle; an important consideration when interpreting and extrapolating from often relatively short palaeoenvironmental records.

Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.

Translation, decay and splitting of Agulhas rings in the southeastern Atlantic Ocean

All Agulhas rings that were spawned at the Agulhas retrofiec- tion between 1993 and 1996 (a total of 21 rings) have been monitored using TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry and followed as they moved through the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, decayed, interacted with bottom topography and each other, or dissipated completely. Rings preferentially crossed the Walvis Ridge at its deepest parts. After having crossed this ridge they have lower translational speeds, and their decay rate decreases markedly. Half the decay of long-lived rings takes place in the first 5 months of their lifetimes. In addition to the strong decay of rings in the Cape Basin, about one third of the observed rings do not seem to leave this region at all but totally disintegrate here. The interaction of rings with bottom topography, in particular with the Verna Seamount, is shown frequently to cause splitting of rings. This will enhance mixing of the rings' Indian Ocean water into that of the southern Atlantic. This localized mixing may well provide a considerable source of warm and salty Indian Ocean water into the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

Strategic significance of the island state of Sri Lanka

The study is focused on an analysis of the major diplomatic documents from the mid eighteenth century to the present as regards Sri Lanka, or Ceylon as it was known till 1972. The objectives of the study are to identify the issues underlying these diplomatic documents. These include the political and strategic factors and other subsidiary issues like trade and commerce relevant at the time these treaties, agreements, and proposed treaties were formulated. It is also a geopolitical study as it relates to Sri Lanka's geographical position in the Indian Ocean, and her possession of the Trincomalee Harbour on its east coast, which is one of the great natural harbours of the world. Over the centuries this harbour has had significant strategic value for naval deployments. The case study of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries studies the diplomatic documents against the political and strategic background for the French Revolution and actions of Napoleon, and the Anglo/French rivalry, spreading from Europe to North America and Asia. In the twentieth century the environment for studying the place of Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean was created by the Russian Revolution, the failure to keep the peace of Versailles after World War I, the conflict and horrors of World War II which led to the disintegration of European colonial empires in Asia and Africa, and the tensions generated by the Cold War. A study of the documents would reveal that in international relations what matters is the ability of a party to promote its interests, and this depends on its power. This realist approach contrasts to the idealist approach where policies are based on moral and ethical principles. For the realist the states should follow to protect their interests and to survive. To achieve this is to strive for a ‘balance of power’. To do so is to form a favourable alliance system. As the documents examined cover a period from the mid-eighteenth century to the later part of the twentieth century, they reflect the changing technologies that have had an influence on naval and military matters. For example, this period witnessed great changes in technology of energy utilized to propel warships, from wind, to steam, to fuel and finally to nuclear power. These changes had an influence in determining strategic policies involving weapon systems and communications within a global and regional setting. The period covered was the beginning of the process described a ‘globalisation’. Its idea is not unique to this century; there were many attempts, in various times of history, to integrate societies within a global context. Viewed in this light, the Anglo-French rivalry of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries was the indication of a global naval strategy, in which Sri Lanka was a major factor in the Indian Ocean region. This process was associated with the phenomena called the ‘expansion of Europe’. It covered all the oceans of the world and in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries led to the founding of the largest maritime empire the world has ever seen: The British Empire. After World War I, the British naval strength (the basis of the British Empire) and her consequent position as a great power, was challenged by other powers like the United States of America and Japan. After World War II, the US Navy was supreme: and there was a close alliance between Britain and the USA. The strength of the US/British alliance was based on the navy and its bases, which were spread throughout the globe; to project power, and act as deterrence and balancing force. Sri Lanka, due to her strategic position, was a part of this evolving process, and was tied to a global strategy (with its regional connotations) from the eighteenth century to the present.

Wings or winds : inferring bat migration in a stepping-stone archipelago

Eocene ocean currents and prevailing winds correlate with over-water dispersals of terrestrial mammals from Africa to Madagascar. Since the Early Miocene (about 23 Ma), these currents flowed in the reverse direction, from the Indian Ocean towards Africa. The Comoro Islands are equidistant between Africa and Madagascar and support an endemic land vertebrate fauna that shares recent ancestry predominantly with Madagascar. We examined whether gene flow in two Miniopterus bat species endemic to the Comoros and Madagascar correlates with the direction of current winds, using uni- and bi-parentally inherited markers with different evolutionary rates. Coalescence-based analyses of mitochondrial matrilines support a Pleistocene (approximately 180 000 years ago) colonization event from Madagascar west to the Comoros (distance: 300 km) in the predicted direction. However, nuclear microsatellites show that more recent gene flow is restricted to a few individuals flying against the wind, from Grande Comore to Anjouan (distance: 80 km).

Animal-borne sensors successfully capture the real-time thermal properties of ocean basins

Climate change is perhaps the most pressing and urgent environmental issue facing the world today. However our ability to predict and quantify the consequences of this change is severely limited by the paucity of in situ oceanographic measurements. Marine animals equipped with sophisticated oceanographic data loggers to study their behavior offer one solution to this problem because marine animals range widely across the world’s ocean basins and visit remote and often inaccessible locations. However, unlike the information being collected from conventional oceanographic sensing equipment, which has been validated, the data collected from instruments deployed on marine animals over long periods has not. This is the first long-term study to validate in situ oceanographic data collected by animal oceanographers. We compared the ocean temperatures collected by leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic Ocean with the ARGO network of ocean floats and could find no systematic errors that could be ascribed to sensor instability. Animal-borne sensors allowed water temperature to be monitored across a range of depths, over entire ocean basins, and, importantly, over long periods and so will play a key role in assessing global climate change through improved monitoring of global temperatures. This finding is especially pertinent given recent international calls for the development and implementation of a comprehensive Earth observation system (see http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/documents.asp?s=review) that includes the use of novel techniques for monitoring and understanding ocean and climate interactions to address strategic environmental and societal needs.

Use of long-distance migration patterns of an endangered species to inform conservation planning for the world's largest marine protected area

Large marine protected areas (MPAs), each hundreds of thousands of square kilometers, have been set up by governments around the world over the last decade as part of efforts to reduce ocean biodiversity declines, yet their efficacy is hotly debated. The Chagos Archipelago MPA (640,000 km2) (Indian Ocean) lies at the heart of this debate. We conducted the first satellite tracking of a migratory species, the green turtle (Chelonia mydas), within the MPA and assessed the species' use of protected versus unprotected areas. We developed an approach to estimate length of residence within the MPA that may have utility across migratory taxa including tuna and sharks. We recorded the longest ever published migration for an adult cheloniid turtle (3979 km). Seven of 8 tracked individuals migrated to distant foraging grounds, often ≥1000 km outside the MPA. One turtle traveled to foraging grounds within the MPA. Thus, networks of small MPAs, developed synergistically with larger MPAs, may increase the amount of time migrating species spend within protected areas. The MPA will protect turtles during the breeding season and will protect some turtles on their foraging grounds within the MPA and others during the first part of their long-distance postbreeding oceanic migrations. International cooperation will be needed to develop the network of small MPAs needed to supplement the Chagos Archipelago MPA.

The accuracy of Fastloc-GPS locations and implications for animal tracking

Over recent years, a major breakthrough in marine animal tracking has occurred with the advent of Fastloc-GPS that provides highly accurate location data even for animals that only surface briefly such as sea turtles, marine mammals and penguins. We assessed the accuracy of Fastloc-GPS locations using fixed trials of tags in which >45 000 locations were obtained. Procedures for determining the speed of travel and heading were developed by simulating tracks and then adding Fastloc-GPS location errors. The levels of detail achievable for speed and heading estimates were illustrated by using empirical Fastloc-GPS data for a green turtle (Chelonia mydas, Linnaeus, 1758) travelling over 3000 km across the Indian Ocean. The accuracy of Fastloc-GPS locations varied as a function of the number of GPS satellites used in the location calculation. For example, when Fastloc-GPS locations were calculated using 4 GPS satellites, 50% of locations were within 36 m and 95% within 724 m of the true position. These values improved to 18 and 70 m, respectively, when 6 satellites were used. Simulations indicated that for animals travelling around 2·5 km h-1 (e.g. turtles, penguins and seals) and depending on the number of satellites used in the location calculation, robust speed and heading estimates would usually be obtained for locations only 1-6 h apart. Fastloc-GPS accuracy is several orders of magnitude better that conventional Argos tracking or light-based geolocation and consequently will allow new insights into small-scale movement patterns of marine animals.

Cocos Malay language since integration with Australia

The Cocos (Keeling) Islands are a remote Australian territory in the Indian Ocean and arehome to the Cocos Malay people, who have developed a distinct dialect. It waspredicted over 30 years ago that the Cocos Malay language faced extinction, perhapseven within the timeframe of one generation. Two possible threats to the Cocos Malaylanguage were identified. It was felt that English, as the language of power, may replacethe Cocos Malay language. The other possibility was language convergence, whereCocos Malay would be subsumed by another, larger Malay dialect. With these issues inmind, I explore developments in the Cocos Malay language since the Islands’ fullintegration with Australia in 1984. Drawing from extensive ethnographic work andlinguistic research into Cocos Malay I also refer to the work of other researchers toanalyse how the Cocos Malay language has developed over the past 30 years, in a timeof great social change. I argue that integration with Australia and attempts atassimilation have resulted in social dynamics where Cocos Malay language remains adefining marker of Cocos Malay identity positioning. In this social environment, CocosMalay therefore remains viable and, despite language change, does not face immediateextinction.

Representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses in the ocean component of the NCAR-CCSM model

We examine Weddell Sea deep water mass distributions with respect to the results from three different model runs using the oceanic component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM). One run is inter-annually forced by corrected NCAR/NCEP fluxes, while the other two are forced with the annual cycle obtained from the same climatology. One of the latter runs includes an interactive sea-ice model. Optimum Multiparameter analysis is applied to separate the deep water masses in the Greenwich Meridian section (into the Weddell Sea only) to measure the degree of realism obtained in the simulations. First, we describe the distribution of the simulated deep water masses using observed water type indices. Since the observed indices do not provide an acceptable representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses as expected, they are specifically adjusted for each simulation. Differences among the water masses` representations in the three simulations are quantified through their root-mean-square differences. Results point out the need for better representation (and inclusion) of ice-related processes in order to improve the oceanic characteristics and variability of dense Southern Ocean water masses in the outputs of the NCAR-CCSM model, and probably in other ocean and climate models.

Database of diazotrophs in global ocean: abundances, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates

[EN] Marine N2 fixing microorganisms, termed diazotrophs, are a key functional group in marine pelagic ecosystems. The biological fixation of dinitrogen (N2) to bioavailable nitrogen provides an important new source of nitrogen for pelagic marine ecosystems 5 and influences primary productivity and organic matter export to the deep ocean. As one of a series of efforts to collect biomass and rates specific to different phytoplankton functional groups, we have constructed a database on diazotrophic organisms in the global pelagic upper ocean by compiling about 12 000 direct field measurements of cyanobacterial diazotroph abundances (based on microscopic cell counts or qPCR 10 assays targeting the nifH genes) and N2 fixation rates. Biomass conversion factors are estimated based on cell sizes to convert  abundance data to diazotrophic biomass. The database is limited spatially, lacking large regions of the ocean especially in the Indian Ocean. The data are approximately log-normal distributed, and large variances exist in most sub-databases with non-zero values differing 5 to 8 orders of magnitude. 15 Lower mean N2 fixation rate was found in the North Atlantic Ocean than the Pacific Ocean. Reporting the geometric mean and the range of one geometric standard error below and above the geometric mean, the pelagic N2 fixation rate in the global ocean is estimated to be 62 (53–73) TgNyr−1 and the pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean is estimated to be 4.7 (2.3–9.6) TgC from cell counts and to 89 (40–20 200) TgC from nifH-based abundances. Uncertainties related to biomass conversion factors can change the estimate of geometric mean pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean by about ±70 %. This evolving database can be used to study spatial and temporal distributions and variations of marine N2 fixation, to validate geochemical estimates and to parameterize and validate biogeochemical models. The database is 25 stored in PANGAEA (http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.774851).

Changes of the surface cell of the Atlantic and Indian Meridional overturning circulations

Premio Extraordinario de Doctorado. Rama de Ciencias.

The use of remote sensing imagery for monitoring recovery in the aftermath of a natural disaster: the Hurricane Katrina Case

Although Recovery is often defined as the less studied and documented phase of the Emergency Management Cycle, a wide literature is available for describing characteristics and sub-phases of this process. Previous works do not allow to gain an overall perspective because of a lack of systematic consistent monitoring of recovery utilizing advanced technologies such as remote sensing and GIS technologies. Taking into consideration the key role of Remote Sensing in Response and Damage Assessment, this thesis is aimed to verify the appropriateness of such advanced monitoring techniques to detect recovery advancements over time, with close attention to the main characteristics of the study event: Hurricane Katrina storm surge. Based on multi-source, multi-sensor and multi-temporal data, the post-Katrina recovery was analysed using both a qualitative and a quantitative approach. The first phase was dedicated to the investigation of the relation between urban types, damage and recovery state, referring to geographical and technological parameters. Damage and recovery scales were proposed to review critical observations on remarkable surge- induced effects on various typologies of structures, analyzed at a per-building level. This wide-ranging investigation allowed a new understanding of the distinctive features of the recovery process. A quantitative analysis was employed to develop methodological procedures suited to recognize and monitor distribution, timing and characteristics of recovery activities in the study area. Promising results, gained by applying supervised classification algorithms to detect localization and distribution of blue tarp, have proved that this methodology may help the analyst in the detection and monitoring of recovery activities in areas that have been affected by medium damage. The study found that Mahalanobis Distance was the classifier which provided the most accurate results, in localising blue roofs with 93.7% of blue roof classified correctly and a producer accuracy of 70%. It was seen to be the classifier least sensitive to spectral signature alteration. The application of the dissimilarity textural classification to satellite imagery has demonstrated the suitability of this technique for the detection of debris distribution and for the monitoring of demolition and reconstruction activities in the study area. Linking these geographically extensive techniques with expert per-building interpretation of advanced-technology ground surveys provides a multi-faceted view of the physical recovery process. Remote sensing and GIS technologies combined to advanced ground survey approach provides extremely valuable capability in Recovery activities monitoring and may constitute a technical basis to lead aid organization and local government in the Recovery management.

Maremoti in bacini limitati

The work of my thesis is focused on the impact of tsunami waves in limited basins. By limited basins I mean here those basins capable of modifying significantly the tsunami signal with respect to the surrounding open sea. Based on this definition, we consider limited basins not only harbours but also straits, channels, seamounts and oceanic shelves. I have considered two different examples, one dealing with the Seychelles Island platform in the Indian Ocean, the second focussing on the Messina Strait and the harbour of the Messina city itself (Italy). The Seychelles platform is differentiated at bathymetric level from the surrounding ocean, with rapid changes from 2 km to 70 meters over short horizontal distances. The study of the platform response to the tsunami propagation is based on the simulation of the mega-event occurred on 26 December 2004. Based on a hypothesis for the earthquake causative fault, the ensuing tsunami has been numerically simulated. I analysed synthetic tide gauge records at several virtual tide gauges aligned along the direction going from the source to the platform. A substantial uniformity of tsunami signals in all calculated open ocean tide-gauge records is observed, while the signals calculated in two points of the Seychelles platform show different features both in terms of amplitude and period of the perturbation. To better understand the content in frequency of different calculated marigrams, a spectral analysis was carried out. In particular the ratio between the calculated tide-gauge records spectrum on the platform and the average tide-gauge records in the open ocean was considered. The main result is that, while in the average spectrum in the open ocean the fundamental peak is related to the source, the platform introduces further peaks linked both to the bathymetric configuration and to coastal geometry. The Messina Strait represents an interesting case because it consists in a sort of a channel open both in the north and in the south and furthermore contains the limited basin of the Messina harbour. In this case the study has been carried out in a different way with respect to the Seychelles case. The basin was forced along a boundary of the computational domain with sinusoidal functions having different periods within the typical tsunami frequencies. The tsunami has been simulated numerically and in particular the tide-gauge records were calculated for every forcing function in different points both externally and internally of the channel and of the Messina harbour. Apart from the tide-gauge records in the source region that almost immediately reach stationarity, all the computed signals in the channel and in the Messina harbour present a transient variable amplitude followed by a stationary part. Based exclusively on this last part, I calculated the amplification curves for each site. I found that the maximum amplification is obtained for forcing periods of approximately 10 minutes.