An analysis of the effects of preferential trade policies through the estimation of quantitative models: the case of Portugal.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Macroeconomic determinants of contingent protection:the case of the European Union

Contingent Protection has grown to become an important trade restricting device. In the European Union, protection instruments like antidumping are used extensively. This paper analyses whether macroeconomic pressures may contribute to explain the variations in the intensity of antidumping protectionism in the EU. The empirical analysis uses count data models, applying various specification tests to derive the most appropriate specification. Our results suggest that the filing activity is inversely related to the macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, they confirm existing evidence for the US suggesting that domestic macroeconomic pressures are a more important determinant of contingent protection policy than external pressures.

Risk of African swine fever introduction into the European Union through transport-associated routes: returning trucks and waste from international ships and planes

BACKGROUND The uncontrolled presence of African swine fever (ASF) in Russian Federation (RF) poses a serious risk to the whole European Union (EU) pig industry. Although trade of pigs and their products is banned since the official notification in June 2007, the potential introduction of ASF virus (ASFV) may occur by other routes, which are very frequent in ASF, and more difficult to control, such as contaminated waste or infected vehicles. This study was intended to estimate the risk of ASFV introduction into the EU through three types of transport routes: returning trucks, waste from international ships and waste from international planes, which will be referred here as transport-associated routes (TAR). Since no detailed and official information was available for these routes, a semi-quantitative model based on the weighted combination of risk factors was developed to estimate the risk of ASFV introduction by TAR. Relative weights for combination of different risk factors as well as validation of the model results were obtained by an expert opinion elicitation. RESULTS Model results indicate that the relative risk for ASFV introduction through TAR in most of the EU countries (16) is low, although some countries, specifically Poland and Lithuania, concentrate high levels of risk, the returning trucks route being the analyzed TAR that currently poses the highest risk for ASFV introduction into the EU. The spatial distribution of the risk of ASFV introduction varies importantly between the analyzed introduction routes. Results also highlight the need to increase the awareness and precautions for ASF prevention, particularly ensuring truck disinfection, to minimize the potential risk of entrance into the EU. CONCLUSIONS This study presents the first assessment of ASF introduction into the EU through TAR. The innovative model developed here could be used in data scarce situations for estimating the relative risk associated to each EU country. This simple methodology provides a rapid and easy to interpret results on risk that may be used for a target and cost-effective allocation of resources to prevent disease introduction.

A conservation trade-off? Interspecific differences in seahorse responses to experimental changes in fishing effort

1. A 2-year experimental seining programme and underwater visual censuses were undertaken to quantify the direct effects of active demersal fishing on the population structure and relative abundance of two sympatric seahorse species of conservation concern: the European long-snouted seahorse, Hippocampus guttulatus Cuvier 1829 and the short-snouted seahorse, Hippocampus hippocampus L. The influence of habitat preference on population-level responses to changes in habitat structure following a reduction in fishing effort was also investigated. 2. It was predicted that the benthic habitat would be more structurally complex after fishing ceased and that seahorse densities would increase in response to reduced fishing mortality. Furthermore, it was predicted that the magnitude of the increase in density would be greater for H. guttulatus than for H. hippocampus, because the former species prefers complex vegetated habitats while the latter species uses sparsely vegetated habitats. 3. As predicted, the amount of habitat cover increased significantly when seining ceased, primarily through increases in the abundance of drifting macroalgae and unattached invertebrates. Despite similarities in life histories, the two seahorse species responded differently in terms of magnitude and direction to reduced fishing effort: the abundance of H. guttulatus increased significantly while H. hippocampus decreased in abundance. 4. Results suggest that active demersal fishing may influence the magnitude and direction of the responses of benthic marine fishes to exploitation through its impacts on habitat structure. An increase in habitat cover appeared to favour higher densities of H. guttulatus when seining effort was reduced. By contrast, repeated seining, which maintained less complex habitats, appeared to favour greater abundances of H. hippocampus. 5. Given differences in habitat preference among benthic marine fishes subject to incidental capture in fisheries, simultaneous attempts to manage populations of sympatric species may require complementary strategies that support the persistence of diverse habitat types. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Does international trade produce convergence?

In spite of increasing globalization around the world, the effects of international trade on economic growth are not very clear. I consider an endogenous economic growth model in an open economy with the Home Market Effect (HME) and non-homothetic preferences in order to identify some determinants of the different results in this relationship. The model shows how trade between similar countries leads to convergence in economic growth when knowledge spillovers are present, while trade between very asymmetric countries produces divergence and may become trade in a poverty or growth trap. The results for welfare move in the same direction as economic growth since convergence implies increases in welfare for both countries, while divergence leads to increases in welfare for the largest country and the opposite for its commercial partner in the absence of knowledge spillovers. International trade does not implicate greater welfare as is usual in a static context under CES preferences.

"Portuguese Observatory of Taeniasis and Cysticercosis": A "One Health" example for epidemiological surveillance of one neglected disease in a European country

Cysticercosis results from the ingestion Taenia solium eggs directly by faecal-oral route or contaminated food or water. Human tapeworm carriers who have become infected after ingesting pork meat contaminated with cysticerci release these eggs. Cysticercosis occurs after tapeworm eggs are ingested by an intermediate host (pig or human) and then hatch, migrate, and lodge in the host's tissues, where they develop onto larval cysticerci. When they lodged in the central nervous system of humans, results in the disease condition called Neurocysticercosis (NCC), with a heterogeneous manifestations depending of the locations of cysts, number, size and their stage of evolution (1). Consequently the prognostic ranges from asymptomatic to situations leading to death in 2% to 9.8%. of cases (7) In swine’s there are few studies, but recent works have proved that animals, for the same reasons, also have neurological abnormalities, expressed by seizures, stereotypic walk in circles, chewing motions with foamy salivation included tonic muscle contractions followed by a sudden diminution in all muscle tone leading to collapse (2). Conventional domestic wastewater treatment processes may not be totally effective in inactivating parasites eggs from Taenia solium, allowing some contamination of soils and agricultural products (11). In Portugal there are some evidence of aggregation of human cysticercosis cases in specific regions, bases in ecological design studies (6). There are few information about human tapeworm carriers and social and economic factors associated with them. Success in knowledge and consequently in lowering transmission is limited by the complex network of biological and social factors that maintain the spread. Effective control of mostly zoonosis require One Health approach, after a real knowledge and transparency in the information provided by the institutions responsible for both animal and human health, allowing sustained interventions targeted at the transmission cycle's crucial nodes. In general, the model used to control, reflects a rural reality, where pigs are raised freely, poor sanitation conditions and incipient sanitary inspection. In cysticercosis, pigs are obligate intermediate hosts and so considered as first targets for control and used as sentinels to monitor environmental T. solium contamination (3). Usually environmental contamination with Taenia spp. eggs is a key issue in most of studies with landscape factors influencing presence of Taenia spp. antigens in both pigs and humans (5). Soil-related factors as well as socio-economic and behavioural factors are associated with the emergence of significant clustering human cysticercosis (4,5). However scarce studies has been produced in urban environmental and in developed countries with the finality to characterize the spatial pattern. There are still few data available regarding its prevalence and spatial distribution; Transmission patterns are likely to exhibit correlations as housing conditions, water supply, basic sanitation, schooling and birthplace of the individual or relatives, more than pigs rearing free, soil conditions (9). As a matter of fact, tapeworm carriers from endemic zones can auto-infect or transmit infection to other people or arrive already suffering NCC (as a result of travelling to or being a citizen from an endemic cysticercosis country) to a free cysticercosis country. Transmission is fecal-oral; this includes transmission through person-to-person contact, through autoinfection, or through contaminated food This has been happening in different continents as North America (5.4–18% been autochthonous), Europe and Australia (7). Recently, case reports of NCC have also emerged from Muslim countries. (10). Actually, different papers relate an epidemic situation in Spain and Portugal (7, 8). However the kind of study done does not authorize such conclusion. There are no evidence that infections were acquired in Portugal and there are not characterized the mode of transmission. Papers with these kind of information will be allow to have economic consequences resulted from artificial trade barriers with serious consequences for pig producers and pig meat trade. We need transparency in information’s that allow provide the basis to support the development and targeting of future effective control programmes (and prove we need that). So, to have a real picture of the disease, it is necessary integrate data from human, animal and environmental factors surrounding human and pig cases to characterize the pattern of the transmission. The design needs to be able to capture unexpected, and not common outcomes (routine data). We need to think “One Health” to get a genuine image of the situation.