Plant diversity and ecosystem multifunctionality peak at intermediate levels of woody cover in global drylands

Aim The global spread of woody plants into grasslands is predicted to increase over the coming century. While there is general agreement regarding the anthropogenic causes of this phenomenon, its ecological consequences are less certain. We analysed how woody vegetation of differing cover affects plant diversity (richness and evenness) and the surrogates of multiple ecosystem processes (multifunctionality) in global drylands, and how these change with aridity. Location Two hundred and twenty-four dryland sites from all continents except Antarctica, widely differing in their environmental conditions (from arid to dry-subhumid sites) and relative woody cover (from 0 to 100). Methods Using a standardized field survey, we measured the cover, richness and evenness of perennial vegetation. At each site, we measured 14 soil variables related to fertility and the build-up of nutrient pools. These variables are critical for maintaining ecosystem functioning in drylands. Results Species richness and ecosystem multifunctionality were strongly related to woody vegetation, with both variables peaking at a relative woody cover (RWC) of 41–60. This relationship shifted with aridity. We observed linear positive effects of RWC in dry-subhumid sites. These positive trends shifted to hump-shaped RWC–diversity and multifunctionality relationships under semi-arid environments. Finally, hump-shaped (richness, evenness) or linear negative (multifunctionality) effects of RWC were found under the most arid conditions. Main conclusions Plant diversity and multifunctionality peaked at intermediate levels of woody cover, although this relationship became increasingly positive in wetter environments. This comprehensive study accounts for multiple ecosystem attributes across a range of levels of woody cover and environmental conditions. Our results help us to reconcile contrasting views of woody encroachment found in the current literature and can be used to improve predictions of the likely effects of encroachment on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Estimating the prevalence of comorbid conditions and their effect on health care costs in patients with diabetes mellitus in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND Estimating the prevalence of comorbidities and their associated costs in patients with diabetes is fundamental to optimizing health care management. This study assesses the prevalence and health care costs of comorbid conditions among patients with diabetes compared with patients without diabetes. Distinguishing potentially diabetes- and nondiabetes-related comorbidities in patients with diabetes, we also determined the most frequent chronic conditions and estimated their effect on costs across different health care settings in Switzerland. METHODS Using health care claims data from 2011, we calculated the prevalence and average health care costs of comorbidities among patients with and without diabetes in inpatient and outpatient settings. Patients with diabetes and comorbid conditions were identified using pharmacy-based cost groups. Generalized linear models with negative binomial distribution were used to analyze the effect of comorbidities on health care costs. RESULTS A total of 932,612 persons, including 50,751 patients with diabetes, were enrolled. The most frequent potentially diabetes- and nondiabetes-related comorbidities in patients older than 64 years were cardiovascular diseases (91%), rheumatologic conditions (55%), and hyperlipidemia (53%). The mean total health care costs for diabetes patients varied substantially by comorbidity status (US$3,203-$14,223). Patients with diabetes and more than two comorbidities incurred US$10,584 higher total costs than patients without comorbidity. Costs were significantly higher in patients with diabetes and comorbid cardiovascular disease (US$4,788), hyperlipidemia (US$2,163), hyperacidity disorders (US$8,753), and pain (US$8,324) compared with in those without the given disease. CONCLUSION Comorbidities in patients with diabetes are highly prevalent and have substantial consequences for medical expenditures. Interestingly, hyperacidity disorders and pain were the most costly conditions. Our findings highlight the importance of developing strategies that meet the needs of patients with diabetes and comorbidities. Integrated diabetes care such as used in the Chronic Care Model may represent a useful strategy.

Minimum carbon payment along an aridity gradient for dryland afforestation in non annex I countries with stochastic weather and prices

Recent findings demonstrate that trees in deserts are efficient carbon sinks. It remains however unknown whether the Clean Development Mechanism will accelerate the planting of trees in Non Annex I dryland countries. We estimated the price of carbon at which a farmer would be indifferent between his customary activity and the planting of trees to trade carbon credits, along an aridity gradient. Carbon yields were simulated by means of the CO2FIX v3.1 model for Pinus halepensis with its respective yield classes along the gradient (Arid – 100mm to Dry Sub Humid conditions – 900mm). Wheat and pasture yields were predicted on somewhat similar nitrogen-based quadratic models, using 30 years of weather data to simulate moisture stress. Stochastic production, input and output prices were afterwards simulated on a Monte Carlo matrix. Results show that, despite the high levels of carbon uptake, carbon trading by afforesting is unprofitable anywhere along the gradient. Indeed, the price of carbon would have to raise unrealistically high, and the certification costs would have to drop significantly, to make the Clean Development Mechanism worthwhile for non annex I dryland countries farmers. From a government agency's point of view the Clean Development Mechanism is attractive. However, such agencies will find it difficult to demonstrate “additionality”, even if the rule may be somewhat flexible. Based on these findings, we will further discuss why the Clean Development Mechanism, a supposedly pro-poor instrument, fails to assist farmers in Non Annex I dryland countries living at minimum subsistence level.

Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

Late-Holocene climate variability and ecosystem responses in Alaska inferred from high-resolution multiproxy sediment analyses at Grizzly Lake

The late-Holocene shift from Picea glauca (white spruce) to Picea mariana (black spruce) forests marked the establishment of modern boreal forests in Alaska. To understand the patterns and drivers of this vegetational change and the associated late-Holocene environmental dynamics, we analyzed radiocarbon-dated sediments from Grizzly Lake for chironomids, diatoms, pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, element composition, particle size, and magnetic properties for the period 4100–1800 cal BP. Chironomid assemblages reveal two episodes of decreased July temperature, at ca. 3300–3150 (ca −1 °C) and 2900–2550 cal BP (ca −2 °C). These episodes coincided with climate change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric reorganization, and low solar activity. Diatom-inferred lake levels dropped by ca. 5 m at 3200 cal BP, suggesting dry conditions during the period 3200–1800 cal BP. P. glauca declined and P. mariana expanded at ca. 3200 cal BP; this vegetational change was linked to diatom-inferred low lake levels and thus decreased moisture availability. Forest cover declined at 3300–3100, 2800–2500 and 2300–2100 cal BP and soil erosion as inferred from increased values of Al, K, Si, Ti, and Ca intensified, when solar irradiance was low. Plant taxa adapted to disturbance and cold climate (e.g. Alnus viridis, shrub Betula, Epilobium) expanded during these periods of reduced forest cover. This open vegetation type was associated with high fire activity that peaked at 2800 cal BP, when climatic conditions were particularly cold and dry. Forest recovery lagged behind subsequent climate warming (≤+3 °C) by ca. 75–225 years. Our multiproxy data set suggests that P. glauca was dominant under warm-moist climatic conditions, whereas P. mariana prevailed under cold-dry and warm-dry conditions. This pattern implies that climatic warming, as anticipated for this century, may promote P. glauca expansions, if moisture availability will be sufficiently high, while P. mariana may expand under dry conditions, possibly exacerbating climate impacts on the fire regime.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

Fluctuations in the Δ14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800–650 and 400–100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450–1250 BC, 650–450 BC, 50 BC–100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.

A comparison between multi-proxy and historical data of drift-ice conditions on the East Greenland shelf

The reduction in sea ice along the SE Greenland coast during the last century has severely impacted ice-rafting to this area. In order to reconstruct ice-rafting and oceanographic conditions in the area of Denmark Strait during the last ~150 years, we conducted a multiproxy study on three short (20 cm) sediment cores from outer Kangerdlugssuaq Trough (~300 m water depth). The proxy-based data obtained have been compared with historical and instrumental data to gain a better understanding of the ice sheet-ocean interactions in the area. A robust chronology has been developed based on 210Pb and 137Cs measurements on core PO175GKC#9 (~66.2°N, 32°W) and expanded to the two adjacent cores based on correlations between calcite weight percent records. Our proxy records include sea-ice and phytoplankton biomarkers, and a variety of mineralogical determinations based on the <2 mm sediment fraction, including identification with quantitative x-ray diffraction, ice-rafted debris counts on the 63-150 µm sand fraction, and source identifications based on the composition of Fe oxides in the 45-250 µm fraction. A multivariate statistical analysis indicated significant correlations between our proxy records and historical data, especially with the mean annual temperature data from Stykkishólmur (Iceland) and the storis index (historical observations of sea-ice export via the East Greenland Current). In particular, the biological proxies (calcite weight percent, IP25, and total organic carbon %) showed significant linkage with the storis index. Our records show two distinct intervals in the recent history of the SE Greenland coast. The first of these (ad 1850-1910) shows predominantly perennial sea-ice conditions in the area, while the second (ad 1910-1990) shows more seasonally open water conditions.

Dead Sea lake level for the last 260 ka

The rain regime of the Levant during the late Quaternary was controlled primarily by Mediterranean cyclonic systems associated with North Atlantic climate shifts. Lake levels in the Dead Sea basin have been robust recorders of the regional hydrology and generally indicate highstand (wet) conditions throughout glacial intervals and lowstands (dry) during interglacials. However, sporadic deposition of travertines and speleothems occurred in the Negev Desert and Arava Valley during past interglacials, suggesting intrusions of humidity from southern sources probably in association with enhanced activity of mid-latitude Red Sea synoptic troughs and/or low-latitude tropical plumes. The southerly incursions of wetness were superimposed on the long-term interglacial Levantine arid conditions, as reflected by the current prevailing hyperaridity, and could have had an important impact on human migra- tion through the Red Sea-Dead Sea corridor.

Miocene-Pliocene record of Pollen, charcoal and carbon isotopes of plant waxes of ODP Hole 175-1081A

Modern savannah grasslands were established during the late Miocene and Pliocene (8-3 million years ago). In the tropics, grasslands are dominated by grasses that use the C4 photosynthetic pathway, rather than the C3 pathway. The C4 pathway is better adapted to warm, dry and low-CO2 conditions, leading to suggestions that declining atmospheric CO2 levels, increasing aridity and enhanced rainfall seasonality allowed grasses using this pathway to expand during this interval. The role of fire in C4 expansion may have been underestimated. Here we use analyses of pollen, microscopic charcoal and the stable isotopic composition of plant waxes from a marine sediment core off the coast of Namibia to reconstruct the relative timing of changes in plant composition and fire activity for the late Miocene and Pliocene. We find that in southwestern Africa, the expansion of C4 grasses occurred alongside increasing aridity and enhanced fire activity. During further aridification in the Pliocene, the proportion of C4 grasses in the grasslands increased, while the grassland contracted and deserts and semi-deserts expanded. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that ecological disturbance by fire was an essential feedback mechanism leading to the establishment of C4 grasslands in the Miocene and Pliocene.

Palynology and radiocarbon dating on sediment profile PG1756 from Lake Billyakh, NE Siberia, Russia

In this study a radiocarbon-dated pollen record from Lake Billyakh (65°17'N, 126°47'E; 340 m a.s.l.) in the Verkhoyansk Mountains was used to reconstruct vegetation and climate change since about 15 kyr BP (1 kyr=1000 cal. yr). The pollen record and pollen-based biome reconstruction suggest that open cool steppe and grass and sedge tundra communities with Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Caryophyllaceae and Selaginella rupestris dominated the area from 15 to 13.5 kyr BP. On the other hand, the constant presence of Larix pollen in quantities comparable to today's values points to the constant presence of boreal deciduous conifer trees in the regional vegetation during the last glaciation. A major spread of shrub tundra communities, including birch (Betula sect. Nanae), alder (Duschekia fruticosa) and willow (Salix) species, is dated to 13.5-12.7 kyr BP, indicating a noticeable increase in precipitation toward the end of the last glaciation, particularly during the Allerød Interstadial. Between 12.7 and 11.4 kyr BP pollen percentages of herbaceous taxa rapidly increased, whereas shrub taxa percentages decreased, suggesting strengthening of the steppe communities associated with the relatively cold and dry Younger Dryas Stadial. However, the pollen data in hand indicate that Younger Dryas climate was less severe than the climate during the earlier interval from 15 to 13.5 kyr BP. The onset of the Holocene is marked in the pollen record by the highest values of shrub and lowest values of herbaceous taxa, suggesting a return of warmer and wetter conditions after 11.4 kyr BP. Percentages of tree taxa increase gradually and reach maximum values after 7 kyr BP, reflecting the spread of boreal cold deciduous and taiga forests in the region. An interval between 7 and 2 kyr BP is noticeable for the highest percentages of Scots spine (Pinus subgen. Diploxylon), spruce (Picea) and fir (Abies) pollen, indicating mid-Holocene spread of boreal forest communities in response to climate amelioration and degradation of the permafrost layer.

Late Neogene carbonate sedimentation and stable isotope record of ODP Site 121-758

The evolution of oceanic and climatic conditions the northeast Indian Ocean during the last 7 m.y. is revealed in the sediments from Site 758. We present detailed and continuous records of d18O and d13C from planktonic foraminifers, weight percent calcium carbonate, weight percent coarse fraction, magnetic susceptibility, and geomagnetic reversals. Sample spacing of the records ranges from 3 to 10 cm and is equivalent to an average time interval of 2000 to 6000 yr. Despite the fact that core recovery ranged between 100% and 105%, recovery gaps as large as 2.7 m occurred at nearly every break between advanced hydraulic piston cores. Approximately 12% of the late Neogene sequence was not recovered in each of the two holes drilled at Site 758. To circumvent the discontinuity introduced by the gaps, a composite depth section was constructed from multiple cores taken from offset holes at Site 758. The resulting composite depth section extends continuously from 0 to 116 mbsf, from the Holocene to the upper Miocene. A detailed chronostratigraphy is based on geomagnetic reversals which extend from the Brunhes Chron to Chron 6, and on d18O stages 1 through 105, which span from 0 to 2.5 Ma. The d18O record is dominated by a ~40-k.y. cycle in the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, and is followed by a change to a ~100-k.y. cycle in the late Pleistocene. The mid-Pleistocene transition between these two modes of variability occurs between d18O stages 25 and 22 (between 860 and 800 Ka). Thirteen major volcanic ash horizons from the Indonesian arc are observed throughout the sedimentary section and are dated by their relative position within the geomagnetic reversals and the d18O chronostratigraphy. Since 5 Ma, there has been a long-term decline in weight percent CaCO3 and CaCO3 mass accumulation rates, and an associated rise in non-CaCO3 mass accumulation rates. We attribute these changes to a decrease in CaCO3 productivity and an increase in terrigenous sedimentation through enhanced riverine input. Such input may be linked to rapid tectonic uplift of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau via mechanisms such as the intensification of the monsoonal rains, increased fluvial erosion, and regional glaciation. The long-term increase in percent coarse fraction since 5 Ma suggests a gradual increase in CaCO3 preservation. Higher frequency fluctuations in CaCO3 preservation are superimposed on the long-term trend and are related to climate fluctuations. The abrupt drop (-50%) in CaCO3 accumulation at 3.4 Ma signals a dramatic decrease in CaCO3 production that occurred over much of the Indian Ocean.

AMS radiocarbon dates and pollen analysis of ODP Hole 175-1078C

ODP Site 1078 situated under the coast of Angola provides the first record of the vegetation history for Angola. The upper 11 m of the core covers the past 30 thousand years, which has been analysed palynologically in decadal to centennial resolution. Alkenone sea surface temperature estimates were analysed in centennial resolution. We studied sea surface temperatures and vegetation development during full glacial, deglacial, and interglacial conditions. During the glacial the vegetation in Angola was very open consisting of grass and heath lands, deserts and semi-deserts, which suggests a cool and dry climate. A change to warmer and more humid conditions is indicated by forest expansion starting in step with the earliest temperature rise in Antarctica, 22 thousand years ago. We infer that around the period of Heinrich Event 1, a northward excursion of the Angola Benguela Front and the Congo Air Boundary resulted in cool sea surface temperatures but rain forest remained present in the northern lowlands of Angola. Rain forest and dry forest area increase 15 thousand years ago. During the Holocene, dry forests and Miombo woodlands expanded. Also in Angola globally recognised climate changes at 8 thousand and 4 thousand years ago had an impact on the vegetation. During the past 2 thousand years, savannah vegetation became dominant.

Benthic carbon turnover, sediment pigment concentrations and sinking fluxes of POC in the southeastern Beaufort Sea during CCGS Amundsen cruise 2008

The effects of changing ice and atmospheric conditions on the upwelling of deep nutrient-laden waters and biological productivity in the coastal Beaufort Sea were quantified using a unique combination of in situ and remote-sensing approaches. Repeated instances of ice ablation and upwelling during fall 2007 and summer 2008 multiplied the production of ice algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthos by 2 to 6 fold. Strong wind forcing failed to induce upward shifts in the biological productivity of stratified waters off the shelf.

Hydrous and anhydrous pyrolysis of DSDP Leg 75 kerogens

The aliphatic hydrocarbon distributions obtained from the natural bitumens of three Leg 75 sediments were compared using computerised gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (C-GC-MS). The kerogens isolated from these sediments were heated in sealed tubes at 330°C using the techniques of hydrous (i.e. heating kerogen in the presence of water) and anhydrous pyrolysis (i.e. heating dry kerogen alone). These experiments were then repeated at a lower temperature (280°C). At 330°C, under anhydrous conditions, considerable destruction of biomarkers in the ancient kerogens (i.e. pre-Tertiary) occurred, whereas with water present significant amounts of hopanes were obtained. However, with more recent kerogens (which contain larger amounts of chemically bound water), both anhydrous and hydrous pyrolysis gave a similar suite of biological markers, in which long chain acyclic isoprenoids (C40) are significant components. Lowering the temperature of pyrolysis to 280°C yielded biological markers under both hydrous and anhydrous conditions for all kerogens. n-Alkenes were not detected in any of the pyrolysates; however, a single unknown triterpene was discovered in several of the hydrous and anhydrous pyrolysates. The results tentatively indicate that the chief value to petroleum research of kerogen hydrous pyrolysis lies in its ability to increase the yield of pyrolysate. High temperature hydrous pyrolysis (280-330°C), under high pressure (2000 psi), does not appear to mimic natural conditions of oil generation. However, this study does not take into account whole rock pyrolysis.

Black shales from the Upper Aptian and Lower Albanian of the Volcontian Basin

Calcareous nannoplankton, palynomorph, benthic foraminifera, and oxygen isotope records from the supraregionally distributed Niveau Paquier (Early Albian age, Oceanic Anoxic Event 1b) and regionally distributed Niveau Kilian (Late Aptian age) black shales in the Vocontian Basin (SE France) exhibit variations that reflect paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic changes in the mid-Cretaceous low latitudes. To quantify surface water productivity and temperature changes, nutrient and temperature indices based on calcareous nannofossils were developed. The nutrient index strongly varies in the precessional band, whereas variations of the temperature index reflect eccentricity. Since polar ice caps were not present during the mid-Cretaceous, these variations probably result from feedback mechanisms within a monsoonal climate system of the mid-Cretaceous low latitudes involving warm/humid and cool/dry cycles. A model is proposed that explains the formation of mid-Cretaceous black shales through monsoonally driven changes in temperature and evaporation/precipitation patterns. The Lower Albian Niveau Paquier, which has a supraregional distribution, formed under extremely warm and humid conditions when monsoonal intensity was strongest. Bottom water ventilation in the Vocontian Basin was diminished, probably due to increased precipitation and reduced evaporation in regions of deep water formation at low latitudes. Surface water productivity in the Vocontian Basin was controlled by the strength of monsoonal winds. The Upper Aptian Niveau Kilian, which has a regional distribution only, formed under a less warm and humid climate than the Niveau Paquier. Low-latitude deep water formation was reduced to a lesser extent and/or on regional scale only. The threshold for the formation of a supraregional black shale was not reached. The intensity of increases in temperature and humidity controlled whether black shales developed on a regional or supraregional scale. At least in the Vocontian Basin, the increased preservation of organic matter at the sea floor was more significant in black shale formation than the role of enhanced productivity.