Spatial and temporal distribution of falciparum malaria in China

Background: Falciparum malaria is the most deadly among the four main types of human malaria. Although great success has been achieved since the launch of the National Malaria Control Programme in 1955, malaria remains a serious public health problem in China. This paper aimed to analyse the geographic distribution, demographic patterns and time trends of falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The annual numbers of falciparum malaria cases during 1992–2003 and the individual case reports of each clinical falciparum malaria during 2004–2005 were extracted from communicable disease information systems in China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. The annual number of cases and the annual incidence were mapped by matching them to corresponding province- and county-level administrative units in a geographic information system. The distribution of falciparum malaria by age, gender and origin of infection was analysed. Time-series analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the falciparum malaria in the endemic provinces and the imported falciparum malaria in non-endemic provinces. Results: Falciparum malaria was endemic in two provinces of China during 2004–05. Imported malaria was reported in 26 non-endemic provinces. Annual incidence of falciparum malaria was mapped at county level in the two endemic provinces of China: Yunnan and Hainan. The sex ratio (male vs. female) for the number of cases in Yunnan was 1.6 in the children of 0–15 years and it reached 5.7 in the adults over 15 years of age. The number of malaria cases in Yunnan was positively correlated with the imported malaria of concurrent months in the non-endemic provinces. Conclusion: The endemic area of falciparum malaria in China has remained restricted to two provinces, Yunnan and Hainan. Stable transmission occurs in the bordering region of Yunnan and the hilly-forested south of Hainan. The age and gender distribution in the endemic area is characterized by the predominance of adult men cases. Imported falciparum malaria in the non-endemic area of China, affected mainly by the malaria transmission in Yunnan, has increased both spatially and temporally. Specific intervention measures targeted at the mobile population groups are warranted.

Genetic analysis of maize streak virus isolates from Uganda reveals widespread distribution of a recombinant variant

Maize streak virus (MSV) contributes significantly to the problem of extremely low African maize yields. Whilst a diverse range of MSV and MSV-like viruses are endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and neighbouring islands, only a single group of maize-adapted variants - MSV subtypes A1 -A6 - causes severe enough disease in maize to influence yields substantially. In order to assist in designing effective strategies to control MSV in maize, a large survey covering 155 locations was conducted to assess the diversity, distribution and genetic characteristics of the Ugandan MSV-A population. PCR-restriction fragment-length polymorphism analyses of 391 virus isolates identified 49 genetic variants. Sixty-two full-genome sequences were determined, 52 of which were detectably recombinant. All but two recombinants contained predominantly MSV-A1-like sequences. Of the ten distinct recombination events observed, seven involved inter-MSV-A subtype recombination and three involved intra-MSV-A1 recombination. One of the intra-MSV-A1 recombinants, designated MSV-A1 UgIII, accounted for >60% of all MSV infections sampled throughout Uganda. Although recombination may be an important factor in the emergence of novel geminivirus variants, it is demonstrated that its characteristics in MSV are quite different from those observed in related African cassava-infecting geminivirus species. © 2007 SGM.

Global genetic diversity and geographical and host-species distribution of beak and feather disease virus isolates

Psittacine beak and feather disease (PBFD) has a broad host range and is widespread in wild and captive psittacine populations in Asia, Africa, the Americas, Europe and Australasia. Beak and feather disease circovirus (BFDV) is the causative agent. BFDV has an ~2 kb single stranded circular DNA genome encoding just two proteins (Rep and CP). In this study we provide support for demarcation of BFDV strains by phylogenetic analysis of 65 complete genomes from databases and 22 new BFDV sequences isolated from infected psittacines in South Africa. We propose 94% genome-wide sequence identity as a strain demarcation threshold, with isolates sharing > 94% identity belonging to the same strain, and strain subtypes sharing> 98% identity. Currently, BFDV diversity falls within 14 strains, with five highly divergent isolates from budgerigars probably representing a new species of circovirus with three strains (budgerigar circovirus; BCV-A, -B and -C). The geographical distribution of BFDV and BCV strains is strongly linked to the international trade in exotic birds; strains with more than one host are generally located in the same geographical area. Lastly, we examined BFDV and BCV sequences for evidence of recombination, and determined that recombination had occurred in most BFDV and BCV strains. We established that there were two globally significant recombination hotspots in the viral genome: the first is along the entire intergenic region and the second is in the C-terminal portion of the CP ORF. The implications of our results for the taxonomy and classification of circoviruses are discussed. © 2011 SGM.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Optimal planning of electric-vehicle charging stations in distribution systems

With the progressive exhaustion of fossil energy and the enhanced awareness of environmental protection, more attention is being paid to electric vehicles (EVs). Inappropriate siting and sizing of EV charging stations could have negative effects on the development of EVs, the layout of the city traffic network, and the convenience of EVs' drivers, and lead to an increase in network losses and a degradation in voltage profiles at some nodes. Given this background, the optimal sites of EV charging stations are first identified by a two-step screening method with environmental factors and service radius of EV charging stations considered. Then, a mathematical model for the optimal sizing of EV charging stations is developed with the minimization of total cost associated with EV charging stations to be planned as the objective function and solved by a modified primal-dual interior point algorithm (MPDIPA). Finally, simulation results of the IEEE 123-node test feeder have demonstrated that the developed model and method cannot only attain the reasonable planning scheme of EV charging stations, but also reduce the network loss and improve the voltage profile.

A survey of tagging techniques for music, speech and environmental sound

Sound tagging has been studied for years. Among all sound types, music, speech, and environmental sound are three hottest research areas. This survey aims to provide an overview about the state-of-the-art development in these areas.We discuss about the meaning of tagging in different sound areas at the beginning of the journey. Some examples of sound tagging applications are introduced in order to illustrate the significance of this research. Typical tagging techniques include manual, automatic, and semi-automatic approaches.After reviewing work in music, speech and environmental sound tagging, we compare them and state the research progress to date. Research gaps are identified for each research area and the common features and discriminations between three areas are discovered as well. Published datasets, tools used by researchers, and evaluation measures frequently applied in the analysis are listed. In the end, we summarise the worldwide distribution of countries dedicated to sound tagging research for years.

A hybrid simulation framework to assess the impact of renewable generators on a distribution network

With an increasing number of small-scale renewable generator installations, distribution network planners are faced with new technical challenges (intermittent load flows, network imbalances…). Then again, these decentralized generators (DGs) present opportunities regarding savings on network infrastructure if installed at strategic locations. How can we consider both of these aspects when building decision tools for planning future distribution networks? This paper presents a simulation framework which combines two modeling techniques: agent-based modeling (ABM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). ABM is used to represent the different system units of the network accurately and dynamically, simulating over short time-periods. PSO is then used to find the most economical configuration of DGs over longer periods of time. The infrastructure of the framework is introduced, presenting the two modeling techniques and their integration. A case study of Townsville, Australia, is then used to illustrate the platform implementation and the outputs of a simulation.

Combinatorial design of key distribution mechanisms for wireless sensor networks

Secure communications in wireless sensor networks operating under adversarial conditions require providing pairwise (symmetric) keys to sensor nodes. In large scale deployment scenarios, there is no prior knowledge of post deployment network configuration since nodes may be randomly scattered over a hostile territory. Thus, shared keys must be distributed before deployment to provide each node a key-chain. For large sensor networks it is infeasible to store a unique key for all other nodes in the key-chain of a sensor node. Consequently, for secure communication either two nodes have a key in common in their key-chains and they have a wireless link between them, or there is a path, called key-path, among these two nodes where each pair of neighboring nodes on this path have a key in common. Length of the key-path is the key factor for efficiency of the design. This paper presents novel deterministic and hybrid approaches based on Combinatorial Design for deciding how many and which keys to assign to each key-chain before the sensor network deployment. In particular, Balanced Incomplete Block Designs (BIBD) and Generalized Quadrangles (GQ) are mapped to obtain efficient key distribution schemes. Performance and security properties of the proposed schemes are studied both analytically and computationally. Comparison to related work shows that the combinatorial approach produces better connectivity with smaller key-chain sizes.

Systematic variation of the severity of motor vehicle accident-related traumatic brain injury vignettes produces different post-concussion symptom reports

This study investigated the specificity of the post-concussion syndrome (PCS) expectation-as-etiology hypothesis. Undergraduate students (n = 551) were randomly allocated to one of three vignette conditions. Vignettes depicted either a very mild (VMI), mild (MI), or moderate-to-severe (MSI) motor vehicle-related traumatic brain injury (TBI). Participants reported the PCS and PTSD symptoms that they imagined the depicted injury would produce. Secondary outcomes (knowledge of mild TBI, and the perceived undesirability of TBI) were also assessed. After data screening, the distribution of participants by condition was: VMI (n = 100), MI (n = 96), and MSI (n = 71). There was a significant effect of condition on PCS symptomatology, F(2, 264) = 16.55, p < .001. Significantly greater PCS symptomatology was expected in the MSI condition compared to the other conditions (MSI > VMI; medium effect, r = .33; MSI > MI; small-to-medium effect, r = .22). The same pattern of group differences was found for PTSD symptoms, F(2, 264) = 17.12, p < .001. Knowledge of mild TBI was not related to differences in expected PCS symptoms by condition; and the perceived undesirability of TBI was only associated with reported PCS symptomatology in the MSI condition. Systematic variation in the severity of a depicted TBI produces different PCS and PTSD symptom expectations. Even a very mild TBI vignette can elicit expectations of PCS symptoms.

Applied sub-transmission & distribution reliability assessment of SEQEB network in Queensland

In this paper a combined subtransmission and distribution reliability analysis of SEQEB’s outer suburban network is presented. The reliability analysis was carried out with a commercial software package which evaluates both energy and customer indices. Various reinforcement options were investigated to ascertain the impact they have on the reliability of supply seen by the customers. The customer and energy indices produced by the combined subtransmission and distribution reliability studies contributed to optimise capital expenditure to the most effective areas of the network.

Mixed convection over a horizontal plate with streamwise non-uniform surface temperature distribution

Numerical investigation on mixed convection of a two-dimensional incompressible laminar flow over a horizontal flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal distribution of surface temperature has been performed for different values of Rayleigh number, Reynolds number and frequency of periodic temperature for constant Prandtl number and amplitude of periodic temperature. Finite element method adapted to rectangular non-uniform mesh elements by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm basis numerical scheme has been employed. The investigating parameters are the Rayleigh number, the Reynolds number and frequency of periodic temperature. The effect of variation of individual investigating parameters on mixed convection flow characteristics has been studied to observe the hydrodynamic and thermal behavior for while keeping the other parameters constant. The fluid considered in this study is air with Prandtl number 0.72. The results are obtained for the Rayleigh number range of 102 to 104, Reynolds number ranging from 1 to 100 and the frequency of periodic temperature from 1 to 5. Isotherms, streamlines, average and local Nusselt numbers are presented to show the effect of the different values of aforementioned investigating parameters on fluid flow and heat transfer.

Optimal distribution network reinforcement considering load growth, line loss, and reliability

In this paper, a new comprehensive planning methodology is proposed for implementing distribution network reinforcement. The load growth, voltage profile, distribution line loss, and reliability are considered in this procedure. A time-segmentation technique is employed to reduce the computational load. Options considered range from supporting the load growth using the traditional approach of upgrading the conventional equipment in the distribution network, through to the use of dispatchable distributed generators (DDG). The objective function is composed of the construction cost, loss cost and reliability cost. As constraints, the bus voltages and the feeder currents should be maintained within the standard level. The DDG output power should not be less than a ratio of its rated power because of efficiency. A hybrid optimization method, called modified discrete particle swarm optimization, is employed to solve this nonlinear and discrete optimization problem. A comparison is performed between the optimized solution based on planning of capacitors along with tap-changing transformer and line upgrading and when DDGs are included in the optimization.

Retrieving information from microblog using pattern mining and relevance feedback

Retrieving information from Twitter is always challenging due to its large volume, inconsistent writing and noise. Most existing information retrieval (IR) and text mining methods focus on term-based approach, but suffers from the problems of terms variation such as polysemy and synonymy. This problem deteriorates when such methods are applied on Twitter due to the length limit. Over the years, people have held the hypothesis that pattern-based methods should perform better than term-based methods as it provides more context, but limited studies have been conducted to support such hypothesis especially in Twitter. This paper presents an innovative framework to address the issue of performing IR in microblog. The proposed framework discover patterns in tweets as higher level feature to assign weight for low-level features (i.e. terms) based on their distributions in higher level features. We present the experiment results based on TREC11 microblog dataset and shows that our proposed approach significantly outperforms term-based methods Okapi BM25, TF-IDF and pattern based methods, using precision, recall and F measures.