Nonparametric tail risk, macroeconomics and stock returns: predictability and risk premia

This paper proposes a new novel to calculate tail risks incorporating risk-neutral information without dependence on options data. Proceeding via a non parametric approach we derive a stochastic discount factor that correctly price a chosen panel of stocks returns. With the assumption that states probabilities are homogeneous we back out the risk neutral distribution and calculate five primitive tail risk measures, all extracted from this risk neutral probability. The final measure is than set as the first principal component of the preliminary measures. Using six Fama-French size and book to market portfolios to calculate our tail risk, we find that it has significant predictive power when forecasting market returns one month ahead, aggregate U.S. consumption and GDP one quarter ahead and also macroeconomic activity indexes. Conditional Fama-Macbeth two-pass cross-sectional regressions reveal that our factor present a positive risk premium when controlling for traditional factors.

Mudanças de regimes na função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil : uma abordagem utilizando Markov Regime Switching

O presente trabalho busca identificar a ocorrência, duração e probabilidades de transição de diferentes regimes na condução da política monetária no Brasil a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação em 1999. A estimação da função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil é realizada a partir de uma Regra de Taylor forward looking para uma economia aberta, onde utilizamos a metodologia Markov Regime Switching para caracterizar de forma endógena os diferentes regimes de política monetária. Os resultados obtidos indicam a ocorrência de três regimes distintos de política monetária a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil. O primeiro regime ocorre durante 21% do período estudado e se caracteriza pela não aderência ao princípio de Taylor e discricionariedade da autoridade monetária, que reage demonstrando maior sensibilidade ao hiato do produto. O segundo regime é o de maior duração, ocorre durante 67% do período estudado, e se caracteriza pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor e equilíbrio nos pesos atribuídos pelo Banco Central tanto ao hiato do produto como ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta. Já o terceiro regime ocorre durante 12% do período estudado e se caracteriza não somente pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor, como também por uma maior aversão ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta.

Wrong-way risk in stock swaps : measuring counterparty credit risk and CVA

Uma forma interessante para uma companhia que pretende assumir uma posição comprada em suas próprias ações ou lançar futuramente um programa de recompra de ações, mas sem precisar dispor de caixa ou ter que contratar um empréstimo, ou então se protegendo de uma eventual alta no preço das ações, é através da contratação de um swap de ações. Neste swap, a companhia fica ativa na variação de sua própria ação enquanto paga uma taxa de juros pré ou pós-fixada. Contudo, este tipo de swap apresenta risco wrong-way, ou seja, existe uma dependência positiva entre a ação subjacente do swap e a probabilidade de default da companhia, o que precisa ser considerado por um banco ao precificar este tipo de swap. Neste trabalho propomos um modelo para incorporar a dependência entre probabilidades de default e a exposição à contraparte no cálculo do CVA para este tipo de swap. Utilizamos um processo de Cox para modelar o instante de ocorrência de default, dado que a intensidade estocástica de default segue um modelo do tipo CIR, e assumindo que o fator aleatório presente na ação subjacente e que o fator aleatório presente na intensidade de default são dados conjuntamente por uma distribuição normal padrão bivariada. Analisamos o impacto no CVA da incorporação do riscowrong-way para este tipo de swap com diferentes contrapartes, e para diferentes prazos de vencimento e níveis de correlação.

We're Chained: an analysis of systemic risk in finance

This dissertation presents two papers on how to deal with simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. The first paper deals with the Granger-causation of systemic risk indicators based in correlation matrices in stock returns. Special focus is devoted to the Eigenvalue Entropy as some previous literature indicated strong re- sults, but not considering different macroeconomic scenarios; the Index Cohesion Force and the Absorption Ratio are also considered. Considering the S&P500, there is not ev- idence of Granger-causation from Eigenvalue Entropies and the Index Cohesion Force. The Absorption Ratio Granger-caused both the S&P500 and the VIX index, being the only simple measure that passed this test. The second paper develops this measure to capture the regimes underlying the American stock market. New indicators are built using filtering and random matrix theory. The returns of the S&P500 is modelled as a mixture of normal distributions. The activation of each normal distribution is governed by a Markov chain with the transition probabilities being a function of the indicators. The model shows that using a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of the normalized eigenval- ues exhibits best fit to the returns from 1998-2013.

Docagem ou afretamento de UMS: a escolha ótima para a extensão da vida útil das plataformas de petróleo de campos marítimos maduros sob o enfoque das opções reais

O objetivo deste trabalho é propor a utilização do arcabouço teórico das opções reais e a posterior aplicação do modelo binomial na avaliação de projetos relacionados à exploração e produção de petróleo, tendo em vista a flexibilidade gerencial, os riscos e as incertezas técnicas e de mercado que norteiam o setor petrolífero upstream. Ademais, a aplicação do modelo proposto capta o papel crucial da volatilidade do preço do petróleo na avaliação da decisão de investimento e revela a existência dos custos irrecuperáveis extremos decorrentes do ativo real, neste caso, a unidade marítima de petróleo. Assim, com o intuito de prolongar o ciclo de produção de unidade marítima de petróleo com características preestabelecidas, propõe-se a avaliação econômica de duas alternativas tecnológicas para a extensão de vida útil da plataforma marítima objeto de estudo, sendo estas alternativas tratadas como opções de expansão. As alternativas propostas são duas: o afretamento da UMS (Unidade de Manutenção e Segurança) acoplada à plataforma e a docagem da plataforma a partir da desmobilização, isto é, o descomissionamento, e envio da plataforma ao estaleiro. Na aplicação da primeira opção, a UMS se configura em uma embarcação equipada com toda a estrutura necessária para a realização de serviço de manutenção e revitalização, sem que ocorra interrupção da produção de petróleo. Por outro lado, a opção de descomissionamento é desprovida de receita até o retorno da plataforma do estaleiro. No que tange à metodologia do presente trabalho, o modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro é aplicado considerando a receita proveniente da produção de petróleo de uma plataforma marítima com sistema de produção flutuante com 14 poços, sendo 10 produtores e 4 injetores e sustentada por 8 linhas de ancoragem. Também é definida a volatilidade do projeto como sendo a volatilidade do preço do petróleo. Por fim, as opções de expansão podem ser exercidas a qualquer momento antes da data de expiração das opções, data esta coincidente para ambas as opções e referente ao término de contrato de afretamento da UMS, que corresponde ao período de cinco anos. Neste período de cinco anos, as duas alternativas são exercidas a partir do primeiro ano, com receitas e custos distintos em virtude das especificidades decorrentes das alternativas tecnológicas propostas. A partir da aplicação do modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro sob o enfoque das opções reais, as duas alternativas tecnológicas são tratadas como opções americanas na avaliação econômica da revitalização e manutenção da plataforma marítima. Também realiza-se a análise tradicional do VPL para as duas alternativas. As duas análises apontam para a escolha da UMS como alternativa ótima de expansão da vida útil da plataforma. Ademais, a análise sob o enfoque das opções reais capta um valor adicional em ambas as alternativas tecnológicas, fruto das características inerentes à indústria petrolífera. Quanto à estrutura do trabalho em questão se divide em cinco capítulos: introdução, referencial teórico, metodologia, apresentação dos resultados e as considerações finais.

The distortion of currencies misalignments on trade Instruments: or why currencies wars are not over

The negotiations of mega agreements between the US and the Pacific countries (TPP) and between the US and the EU (TTIP) are raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. TPP and TTIP are proclaimed to be the designers of the rules for the XXI Century. Old trade instruments such as tariffs are said to be no more important for TTIP because tariffs are negligible among those partners but significant to for TPP. Another relevant agreement in negotiation is between the EU and Mercosul, where tariffs are the most important issue in discussion. The main purpose of this paper is to shows that tariff are important for all these agreements, not because of its nominal value, but because the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs are so significant that all concessions can be distorted by overvalued and by devaluated currencies. The article is divided into several sections: the first gives an introduction to the issue; the second explains the methodologies used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents some results for Brazil, US and China; the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication” and examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a basket of currencies (a virtual currency of the World) and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The fifth presents some estimates for the main PTAs. The conclusions are present in the last section

Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Eutrofização e capacidade de carga de fósforo de seis reservatórios a bacia do Rio Seridó, região semi-árida do Estado do RN

The eutrofization is a natural process of accumulation of nutrients in aquatic´s body that it has been accelerated for the human´s actives, mainly the related with the activities of camp, industrial and the inadequate disposition of the domestic sewage. The enrichment of the aquatic´s body with nutrients, mainly the nitrogen and the phosphorus, and the consequent proliferation of algae and Cyanobacteria can commit the quality of the water for the public provisioning, for the fish farming and for other ends. The problem becomes more critical when there is a shortage of water naturally as in the semi-arid area of the Brazilian northeast. Before that problem this work had as objective evaluates the trophic state of six reservoirs of the basin of River Seridó of Rio Grande of Norte and also estimate the capacity of load of match of the reservoir and risk probabilities based on the established limits by the resolution Conama 357/05. The results demonstrate that the six reservoirs are eutrofization, with concentration of total phosphorus and cloro a in the water upster to 50 e 12 μg l-1. The results show that space homogeneity exists in the state trophic of the reservoirs, but a significant variation interanual in function of the increase of the concentrations of nutrients and decrease of the transparency of the water with the reduction of the body of water accumulated in the reservoirs.The results of the simulation risk estocastic show that the reservoirs could receive annually from 72 to 216 Kg of P, assuming a risk of 10% of increasing in more than 30 μg l-1 the annual medium concentrations of total match in the water of these reservoirs. This load could be high in until 360 kg of P a year in case the managers assume a risk of 10% of increasing in more than 50 μg l-1 the annual medium concentrations of total phosphorus in the waters of these reservoirs

Caracterização microestrutural e elétrica de La(FexNi1-x)O3 sintetizado pelo método da gelatina

The present work deals with the synthesis of materials with perovskite structure with the intention of using them as cathodes in fuel cells SOFC type. The perovskite type materials were obtained by chemical synthesis method, using gelatin as the substituent of citric acid and ethylene glycol, and polymerizing acting as chelating agent. The materials were characterized by X-ray diffraction, thermal analysis, spectroscopy Fourier transform infrared, scanning electron microscopy with EDS, surface area determination by the BET method and Term Reduction Program, TPR. The compounds were also characterized by electrical conductivity for the purpose of observing the possible application of this material as a cathode for fuel cells, solid oxide SOFC. The method using gelatin and polymerizing chelating agent for the preparation of materials with the perovskite structure allows the synthesis of crystalline materials and homogeneous. The results demonstrate that the route adopted to obtain materials were effective. The distorted perovskite structure have obtained the type orthorhombic and rhombohedral; important for fuel cell cathodes. The presentation material properties required of a candidate cathode materials for fuel cells. XRD analysis contacted by the distortion of the structures of the synthesized materials. The analyzes show that the electrical conductivity obtained materials have the potential to act as a cell to the cathode of solid oxide fuel, allowing to infer an order of values for the electrical conductivities of perovskites where LaFeO3 < LaNiO3 < LaNi0,5Fe0,5O3. It can be concluded that the activity of these perovskites is due to the presence of structural defects generated that depend on the method of synthesis and the subsequent heat treatment

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Fragmentos da construção histórica do pensamento neo-empirista

O presente trabalho procura identificar as idéias principais na construção histórica do pensamento neo-empirista a partir da visão mecânica do mundo e do método hipotético-dedutivo de Descartes. O método indutivo moderno é apresentado por Bacon e os empiristas ingleses colaboram na questão do pensamento “a posteriori”. No século XIX surge o positivismo que exclui a metafísica e considera a explicação dos fatos apenas como relações de sucessão e similidade. É nesse âmbito que se constroem as bases do método experimental moderno. No início do século XX, se desenvolve a ciência neoempirista cujas principais proposições são (1) a idéia da verificabilidade como forma de conferir a veracidade das teorias a partir da indução e das probabilidades e (2) o crescimento contínuo e acumulativo do conhecimento científico. Popper apresenta a impossibilidade de se obter grandes teorias oriundas da indução e sugere a substituição da indução pela dedução e da verificabilidade pela falseabilidade. Kuhn afirma que o conhecimento científico depende de paradigmas convencionais e Lakatos explica que a ciência não é uma sucessão temporal de períodos normais e revoluções, e sim sua justaposição.

Planos de amostragem seqüenciais para Orthezia praelonga Douglas (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha, Ortheziidae) na cultura de citros

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Corpo e escrita: linhas e entrelinhas da produção de conhecimento em sala de aula

Body and writing: Lines and between-lines of production of knowledge in the classroom it is an ethnographic research, longitudinal character, based on experience while experienced educator of the Escola Municipal Professor Amadeu Araújo, located in the city of Natal-RN, from which are made reflections about texts written by students who have distorted age/education level, in the process of literacy. Here as initial goal: to discuss the production of students writing as a process body, considering the record of experiences and the impressions they have made during the teaching process. We initially by a conception of phenomenological body, by understanding it in its complexity, a phenomenon that is made from its relationship with the world and with the Other. The records examined were produced between the year 2000 and 2005 involving writings of 106 students, constituting a universe of 136 texts, from which, delimited a corpus of 27 texts. The relevance with respect to the theme and recurrence in which they were detected, were up to elements that allowed a systematization methodology, defining the following units of analysis: Body, written in everyday; body, written and sexuality; body, written and enjoyment poetics; body, writing and other stories. We used the techniques of search, participant observation, based on the actions and interactions body expressed during the experiment and the analysis of documents that consisted of students in the texts and secondary sources, among them, the records of daily class, reports and projects developed, as well as reports of my pedagogical practice, as a researcher inserted in the investigative process. The experience developed, showed a writing school able to express nuances of human complexity, showing that learning is made in the action body, crossed by various forms of language and pointing to the relevance of a pedagogical work able to articulate the dialogue between the written and registrations body of the students, as subjects of learning

Mortality Risk in Insects

Understanding how and why insect numbers fluctuate through time and space has been a central theme in ecological research for more than a century. Life tables have been used to understand temporal and spatial patterns in insect numbers. In this study, we estimated cause-of-death probabilities for phytophagous insects using multiple decrement life tables and the irreplaceable mortality analytic technique. Multiple decrement life tables were created from 73 insect life tables published from 1954 to 2004. Irreplaceable mortality (the portion of mortality that cannot be replaced by another cause) from pathogens, predators, and parasitoids was 8.6 +/- 7.2, 7.8 +/- 4.9, and 6.2 +/- 1.6%, respectively. In contrast, the mean irreplaceable mortality from all non-natural enemy mortality factors (mortality from factors other than natural enemies) was 35.1 +/- 4.4%. Irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies was significantly lower compared with non-natural enemy factors. Our results may partially explain cases of unsuccessful efficacy in classical biological control, after successful establishment, by showing low irreplaceable mortality for natural enemies, including 5.2 +/- 1.6% for introduced natural enemies. We suggest that the environment (i.e., the degree of environmental stability) influences the magnitude of the irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies. Our results lead to several testable hypotheses and emphasize that it is not possible to estimate the effect of any mortality factor without considering its interaction with competing mortality factors, which has far-reaching consequences for population biology and applied ecology.

Política de formação docente na América Latina :Argentina, Brasil e Chile

This work aims at studying the policies of teaching training and their impact in the actors and in the education systems of the countries in which these policies were implemented into the context of neoliberal reforms. We particularly studied these policies in three Latin America countries: Argentina, Brazil and Chile. The policies studied here are the ones implemented from the 90 s. However, the horizon of this study is at the beginning of the 80 s, period that starts one of the four intervention initiatives of education here studied: The Main Project of Education For Latin America and Caribbean (PROMEDLAC), which in 2002 goes into a new stage and it is called Regional Project of Education for Latin America and Caribbean (PRELAC), worked out by UNESCO as a request of government representatives of countries of the region, based on the suggestions of Declaration of Mexico , signed by them in 1979. These suggestions will be in the base of the other three initiatives: The Education For All (EPT); Ibero-American Conferences of Education (CIE) and The Hemisphere Action Plan of Education (PAHE), whose documents are the base to the production of an abundant legislation and normatization on education that created the parameters on which the policies of education reforms were worked out and implemented and the dynamism of our education systems from the last two decades of the twentieth century on. All these initiatives intend to work with objectives, projects and programs that, in some cases, in isolation or in groups, are under influence of their actions in a way that frequently it is difficult to identify which of them is the main responsible for some advances. It is important to stand out that not all of the suggestions produced by these initiatives were implemented as policies, and many of them to be implemented were changed in such a way that they were distorted, even they were a result of a multilateral deal, each country gave to them its own interpretation. Moreover, in all these processes the teaching entities had and keep having a fundamental role. The evidences, result of the evaluations of each initiative, show that education policies implemented produced advances in several aspects. They are still not the ideal ones, in truth, but they do exist. In relation to the teaching questions, there were and are still being implemented multiples and varied actions that did not have the expected impact in the education systems of the countries, objects of this study, but, many of them that go on, are promising and start to have a positive impact into the education systems. Even so, the teaching subject matter, even playing a central role in the agenda of all countries of the region, still represents one of the big challenges to the advance and improvement of our education systems