Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.

The hereditary transmission of the glutathione transferase hGSTT1-1 conjugator phenotype in a large family

The polymorphism of human glutathione transferase hGSTT1-1 is expressed in three phenotypes. Experimentally, individuals can be classified as non-conjugators, low conjugators and 'high' conjugators depending on the enzyme activity in blood towards methylene chloride using a gas chromatographic assay. Non-conjugators do not have a functional hGSTT1 gene; however, little is known about the molecular basis of the three conjugator phenotypes. The higher hGSTT1-1 activity in high conjugators may be the result of enzyme induction or be genetically determined. Twenty-nine members of a large family, including three generations were phenotyped and genotyped with respect to hGSTT1-1. The hGSTT1-1 enzyme activity of high conjugators was twice as high as that of low conjugators. The distribution of hGSTT1-1 phenotypes strongly indicates a Mendelian intermediary inheritance, in which a gene-dosage effect results in a doubled enzyme expression in the presence of two functional alleles. The Mendelian intermediary inheritance is further supported by the findings of a semiquantitative polymerase chain reaction method designed to distinguish the three genotypes of hGSTT1 for rapid screening of large study groups.

Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Evolution to a chronic disease niche correlates with increased sensitivity to tryptophan availability for the obligate intracellular bacterium Chlamydia pneumoniae

The chlamydiae are obligate intracellular parasites that have evolved specific interactions with their various hosts and host cell types to ensure their successful survival and consequential pathogenesis. The species Chlamydia pneumoniae is ubiquitous, with serological studies showing that most humans are infected at some stage in their lifetime. While most human infections are asymptomatic, C. pneumoniae can cause more-severe respiratory disease and pneumonia and has been linked to chronic diseases such as asthma, atherosclerosis, and even Alzheimer's disease. The widely dispersed animal-adapted C. pneumoniae strains cause an equally wide range of diseases in their hosts. It is emerging that the ability of C. pneumoniae to survive inside its target cells, including evasion of the host's immune attack mechanisms, is linked to the acquisition of key metabolites. Tryptophan and arginine are key checkpoint compounds in this host-parasite battle. Interestingly, the animal strains of C. pneumoniae have a slightly larger genome, enabling them to cope better with metabolite restrictions. It therefore appears that as the evolutionarily more ancient animal strains have evolved to infect humans, they have selectively become more "susceptible" to the levels of key metabolites, such as tryptophan. While this might initially appear to be a weakness, it allows these human C. pneumoniae strains to exquisitely sense host immune attack and respond by rapidly reverting to a persistent phase. During persistence, they reduce their metabolic levels, halting progression of their developmental cycle, waiting until the hostile external conditions have passed before they reemerge.

A comparison of treatment options for management of end stage kidney disease in elderly patients : a systematic review

Background Chronic kidney disease is a global public health problem of increasing prevalence. There are five stages of kidney disease, with Stage 5 indicating end stage kidney disease (ESKD) requiring dialysis or death will eventually occur. Over the last two decades there have been increasing numbers of people commencing dialysis. A majority of this increase has occurred in the population of people who are 65 years and over. With the older population it is difficult to determine at times whether dialysis will provide any benefit over non-dialysis management. The poor prognosis for the population over 65 years raises issues around management of ESKD in this population. It is therefore important to review any research that has been undertaken in this area which compares outcomes of the older ESKD population who have commenced dialysis with those who have received non-dialysis management. Objective The primary objective was to assess the effect of dialysis compared with non-dialysis management for the population of 65 years and over with ESKD. Inclusion criteria Types of participants This review considered studies that included participants who were 65 years and older. These participants needed to have been diagnosed with ESKD for greater than three months and also be either receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT) (hemodialysis [HD] or peritoneal dialysis [PD]) or non-dialysis management. The settings for the studies included the home, self-care centre, satellite centre, hospital, hospice or nursing home. Types of intervention(s)/phenomena of interest This review considered studies where the intervention was RRT (HD or PD) for the participants with ESKD. There was no restriction on frequency of RRT or length of time the participant received RRT. The comparator was participants who were not undergoing RRT. Types of studies This review considered both experimental and epidemiological study designs including randomized controlled trials, non-randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental, before and after studies, prospective and retrospective cohort studies, case control studies and analytical cross sectional studies. This review also considered descriptive epidemiological study designs including case series, individual case reports and descriptive cross sectional studies for inclusion. This review included any of the following primary and secondary outcome measures: •Primary outcome – survival measures •Secondary outcomes – functional performance score (e.g. Karnofsky Performance score) •Symptoms and severity of end stage kidney disease •Hospital admissions •Health related quality of life (e.g. KDQOL, SF36 and HRQOL) •Comorbidities (e.g. Charlson Comorbidity index).

Self-management programs in stage 1-4 chronic kidney disease : a literature review.

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a complex health problem, which requires individuals to invest considerable time and energy in managing their health and adhering to multifaceted treatment regimens. Objectives To review studies delivering self-management interventions to people with CKD (Stages 1–4) and assess whether these interventions improve patient outcomes. Design: Systematic review. Methods Nine electronic databases (MedLine, CINAHL, EMBASE, ProQuest Health & Medical Complete, ProQuest Nursing & Allied Health, The Cochrane Library, The Joanna Briggs Institute EBP Database, Web of Science and PsycINFO) were searched using relevant terms for papers published between January 2003 and February 2013. Results The search strategy identified 2,051 papers, of which 34 were retrieved in full with only 5 studies involving 274 patients meeting the inclusion criteria. Three studies were randomised controlled trials, a variety of methods were used to measure outcomes, and four studies included a nurse on the self-management intervention team. There was little consistency in the delivery, intensity, duration and format of the self-management programmes. There is some evidence that knowledge- and health-related quality of life improved. Generally, small effects were observed for levels of adherence and progression of CKD according to physiologic measures. Conclusion The effectiveness of self-management programmes in CKD (Stages 1–4) cannot be conclusively ascertained, and further research is required. It is desirable that individuals with CKD are supported to effectively self-manage day-to-day aspects of their health.

Challenges in improving chronic disease survivorship outcomes using tele-health and self-managed online solutions

The advances in modern information and communication (ICT) technology continue to address the challenges and improve` health outcomes for the survivors of chronic disease such as prostate cancer. The management of survivorship is increasingly becoming an important need for the survivors to manage their chronic conditions. The technology interventions such as tele-health as well as self-managed technology applications have shown a potential to improve survivorship outcomes. However, the application of these tools should be supported by strong health economics evidence. This work discusses the challenges of technology led survivorship care models and presents an integrated approach to address these challenges.

Sex workers can be screened too often : a cost-effectiveness analysis in Victoria, Australia

Objectives Commercial sex is licensed in Victoria, Australia such that sex workers are required to have regular tests for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). However, the incidence and prevalence of STIs in sex workers are very low, especially since there is almost universal condom use at work. We aimed to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of the financial cost of the testing policy versus the health benefits of averting the transmission of HIV, syphilis, chlamydia and gonorrhoea to clients. Methods We developed a simple mathematical transmission model, informed by conservative parameter estimates from all available data, linked to a cost-effectiveness analysis. Results We estimated that under current testing rates, it costs over $A90 000 in screening costs for every chlamydia infection averted (and $A600 000 in screening costs for each quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved) and over $A4 000 000 for every HIV infection averted ($A10 000 000 in screening costs for each QALY saved). At an assumed willingness to pay of $A50 000 per QALY gained, HIV testing should not be conducted less than approximately every 40 weeks and chlamydia testing approximately once per year; in comparison, current requirements are testing every 12 weeks for HIV and every 4 weeks for chlamydia. Conclusions Mandatory screening of female sex workers at current testing frequencies is not cost-effective for the prevention of disease in their male clients. The current testing rate required of sex workers in Victoria is excessive. Screening intervals for sex workers should be based on local STI epidemiology and not locked by legislation.

Treatment for prevention of HIV transmission in a localised epidemic : the case for South Australia

Background: Discussion is currently taking place among international HIV/AIDS groups around increasing HIV testing and initiating earlier use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people diagnosed with HIV as a method to reduce the spread of HIV. In this study, we explore the expected epidemiological impact of this strategy in a small population in which HIV transmission is predominantly confined to men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: A deterministic mathematical transmission model was constructed to investigate the impacts of strategies that increase testing and treatment rates, and their likely potential to mitigate HIV epidemics among MSM. Our novel model distinguishes men in the population who are more easily accessible to prevention campaigns through engagement with the gay community from men who are not. This model is applied to the population of MSM in South Australia. Results: Our model-based findings suggest that increasing testing rates alone will have minimal impact on reducing the expected number of infections compared to current conditions. However, in combination with increases in treatment coverage, this strategy could lead to a 59–68% reduction in the number of HIV infections over the next 5 years. Targeting men who are socially engaged with the gay community would result in the majority of potential reductions in incidence, with only minor improvements possible by reaching all other MSM. Conclusions: Investing in strategies that will achieve higher coverage and earlier initiation of treatment to reduce infectiousness of HIV-infected individuals could be an effective strategy for reducing incidence in a population of MSM.

Epigenetics and migraine; complex mitochondrial interactions contributing to disease susceptibility

Migraine is a common neurological disorder classified by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as one of the top twenty most debilitating diseases in the developed world. Current therapies are only effective for a proportion of sufferers and new therapeutic targets are desperately needed to alleviate this burden. Recently the role of epigenetics in the development of many complex diseases including migraine has become an emerging topic. By understanding the importance of acetylation, methylation and other epigenetic modifications, it then follows that this modification process is a potential target to manipulate epigenetic status with the goal of treating disease. Bisulphite sequencing and methylated DNA immunoprecipitation have been used to demonstrate the presence of methylated cytosines in the human D-loop of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), proving that the mitochondrial genome is methylated. For the first time, it has been shown that there is a difference in mtDNA epigenetic status between healthy controls and those with disease, especially for neurodegenerative and age related conditions. Given co-morbidities with migraine and the suggestive link between mitochondrial dysfunction and the lowered threshold for triggering a migraine attack, mitochondrial methylation may be a new avenue to pursue. Creative thinking and new approaches are needed to solve complex problems and a systems biology approach, where multiple layers of information are integrated is becoming more important in complex disease modelling.

Obesity and hypertension have differing oxidant handling molecular pathways in age-related chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in ageing is a burden on health systems worldwide. Rat models of age-related CKD linked with obesity and hypertension were used to investigate alterations in oxidant handling and energy metabolism to identify gene targets or markers for age-related CKD. Young adult (3 months) and old (21–24 months) spontaneously-hypertensive (SHR), normotensive Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) and Wistar rats (normotensive, obese in ageing) were compared for renal functional and physiological parameters, renal fibrosis and inflammation, oxidative stress (hemeoxygenase-1/HO-1), apoptosis and cell injury (including Bax:Bcl-2), phosphorylated and non-phosphorylated forms of oxidant and energy sensing proteins (p66Shc, AMPK), signal transduction proteins (ERK1/2, PKB), and transcription factors (NF-κB, FoxO1). All old rats were normoglycemic. Renal fibrosis, tubular epithelial apoptosis, interstitial macrophages and myofibroblasts (all p < 0.05), p66Shc/phospho-p66 (p < 0.05), Bax/Bcl-2 ratio (p < 0.05) and NF-κB expression (p < 0.01) were highest in old obese Wistars. Expression of phospho-FoxO/FoxO was elevated in old Wistars (p < 0.001) and WKYs (p < 0.01). SHRs had high levels in young and old rats. Expression of PKB, phospho-PKB, ERK1/2 and phospho-ERK1/2 were significantly elevated in all aged animals. These results suggest that obesity and hypertension have differing oxidant handling and signalling pathways that act in the pathogenesis of age-related CKD

Running shoes increase Achilles tendon load in walking : an acoustic propagation study

Background: Footwear remains a prime candidate for the prevention and rehabilitation of Achilles tendinopathy as it is thought to decrease tension in the tendon through elevation of the heel. However, evidence for this effect is equivocal. Purpose: This study used an acoustic transmission technique to investigate the effect of running shoes on Achilles tendon loading during barefoot and shod walking. Methods: Acoustic velocity was measured in the Achilles tendon of twelve recreationally–active males (age, 31±9 years; height, 1.78±0.06 m; weight, 81.0±16.9 kg) during barefoot and shod walking at matched self–selected speed (3.4±0.7 km/h). Standard running shoes incorporating a 10– mm heel offset were used. Vertical ground reaction force and spatiotemporal parameters were determined with an instrumented treadmill. Axial acoustic velocity in the Achilles tendon was measured using a custom built ultrasonic device. All data were acquired at a rate of 100 Hz during 10s of steady–state walking. Statistical comparisons between barefoot and shod conditions were made using paired t–tests and repeated measure ANOVAs. Results: Acoustic velocity in the Achilles tendon was highly reproducible and was typified by two maxima (P1, P2) and minima (M1, M2) during walking. Footwear resulted in a significant increase in step length, stance duration and peak vertical ground reaction force compared to barefoot walking. Peak acoustic velocity in the Achilles tendon (P1, P2) was significantly higher with running shoes. Conclusions: Peak acoustic velocity in the Achilles tendon was higher with footwear, suggesting that standard running shoes with a 10–mm heel offset increase tensile load in the Achilles tendon. Although further research is required, these findings question the therapeutic role of standard running shoes in Achilles tendinopathy.

Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012

BACKGROUND: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. METHODS: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. RESULTS: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. CONCLUSIONS: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.