Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Dynamics of trapped Bose-Einstein condensates: Beyond the mean-field

Since dilute Bose gas condensates were first experimentally produced, the Gross-Pitaevskii equation has been successfully used as a descriptive tool. As a mean-field equation, it cannot by definition predict anything about the many-body quantum statistics of condensate. We show here that there are a class of dynamical systems where it cannot even make successful predictions about the mean-field behavior, starting with the process of evaporative cooling by which condensates are formed. Among others are parametric processes, such as photoassociation and dissociation of atomic and molecular condensates.

Decline in homicide rates in Sao Paulo, Brasil: a descriptive analysis

Objective. To describe homicide mortality in the municipality of Sao Paulo according to type of weapon, sex, race or skin color, age, and areas of socioeconomic inequalities, between 1996 and 2008. Method. For this ecological time-series study, data about deaths in the municipality of Sao Paulo were collected from the municipal program for improvement of mortality information, using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Homicide mortality rates (HMR) were calculated for the overall population and specifically for each sex, race or skin color, age range, type of weapon, and occurrence in social deprivation/affluence areas. HMR were adjusted for age using the direct method. The percentage age of variation in HMR was calculated for the study period. For areas of socioeconomic inequalities, the relative risk of death from homicide was calculated. Results. HMR fell 73.7% between 2001 and 2008. A reduction in HMR was observed in all groups, especially males (-74.5%), young men between 15 and 24 years of age (-78.0%), and residents in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation (-79.3%). The reduction occurred mostly in firearm homicide rates (-74.1%). The relative risk of death from homicide in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation, as compared to areas with some degree of socioeconomic deprivation, was 2.77 in 1996, 3.9 in 2001, and 2.13 in 2008. In areas of high socioeconomic deprivation, the relative risk was 2.07 in 1996 and 1.96 in 2008. Conclusions. To understand the reduction in homicide rates in the municipality of Sao Paulo, it is important to take into consideration macrodeterminants that affect the entire municipality and all population subgroups, as well as micro/local determinants that have special impact on homicides committed with firearms and on subgroups such as the young, males, and residents of areas of high socioeconomic deprivation.

Elevated left and reduced right orbitomedial prefrontal fractional anisotropy in adults with bipolar disorder revealed by tract-based spatial statistics

Context Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies in adults with bipolar disorder (BD) indicate altered white matter (WM) in the orbitomedial prefrontal cortex (OMPFC), potentially underlying abnormal prefrontal corticolimbic connectivity and mood dysregulatioin in BD. Objective: To use tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) to examine VVM skeleton (ie, the most compact whole-brain WM) in subjects with BD vs healthy control subjects. Design: Cross-sectional, case-control, whole-brain DTI using TBSS. Setting: University research institute. Participants: Fifty-six individuals, 31 having a DSM-IV diagnosis of BD type 1 (mean age, 35.9 years [age range, 24-52 years]) and 25 controls (mean age, 29.5 years [age range, 19-52 years]). Main Outcome Measures: Fractional anisotropy (FA) longitudinal and radial diffusivities in subjects with BD vs controls (covarying for age) and their relationships with clinical and demographic variables. Results: Subjects with BD vs controls had significantly greater FA (t > 3.0, P <=.05 corrected) in the left uncinate fasciculus (reduced radial diffusivity distally and increased longitudinal diffusivity centrally), left optic radiation (increased longitudinal diffusivity), and right anterothalamic radiation (no significant diffusivity change). Subjects with BD vs controls had significantly reduced FA (t > 3.0, P <=.05 corrected) in the right uncinate fasciculus (greater radial diffusivity). Among subjects with BD, significant negative correlations (P <.01) were found between age and FA in bilateral uncinate fasciculi and in the right anterothalamic radiation, as well as between medication load and FA in the left optic radiation. Decreased FA (P <.01) was observed in the left optic radiation and in the right anterothalamic radiation among subjects with BD taking vs those not taking mood stabilizers, as well as in the left optic radiation among depressed vs remitted subjects with BD. Subjects having BD with vs without lifetime alcohol or other drug abuse had significantly decreased FA in the left uncinate fasciculus. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to use TBSS to examine WM in subjects with BD. Subjects with BD vs controls showed greater WM FA in the left OMPFC that diminished with age and with alcohol or other drug abuse, as well as reduced WM FA in the right OMPFC. Mood stabilizers and depressed episode reduced WM FA in left-sided sensory visual processing regions among subjects with BD. Abnormal right vs left asymmetry in FA in OMPFC WM among subjects with BD, likely reflecting increased proportions of left-sided longitudinally aligned and right-sided obliquely aligned myelinated fibers, may represent a biologic mechanism for mood dysregulation in BD.

Descriptive findings on the morphology of dendritic spines in the rat medial amygdala

The rat posterodorsal medial amygdala (MePD) is a brain area in which gonadal hormones induce notable plastic effects in the density of dendritic spines. Dendritic spines are post-synaptic specializations whose shape and spacing change neuronal excitability. Our aim was to obtain new data on the dendritic spines morphology and density from MePD neurons using the carbocyanine dye Dil under confocal microscopy. In adult male rats, the dendritic spine density of the medial branches of the left MePD (mean +/- SD) was 1.15 +/- 0.67 spines/dendritic mu m. From the total sampled, approximately 53% of the spines were classified as thin, 22.5% as ""mushroom-like"", and 21.5% as stubby/wide. Other spine shapes (3%) included those ramified, with a filopodium-like or a gemule appearance, and others with a protruding spinule. Additional experiment joining Dil and synaptophysin (a pre-synaptic protein) labeling suggested synaptic sites on dendritic shafts and spines. Dendritic spines showed synaptophysin puncta close to their head and neck, although some spines had no evident labeled puncta on them or, conversely, multiple puncta appeared upon one spine. These results advance previous light microscopy results by revealing features and complexities of the dendritic spines at the same time that give new insight on the possible synaptic organization of the adult rat MePD. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

MapScript: A map algebra programming language incorporating neighborhood analysis

Map algebra is a data model and simple functional notation to study the distribution and patterns of spatial phenomena. It uses a uniform representation of space as discrete grids, which are organized into layers. This paper discusses extensions to map algebra to handle neighborhood operations with a new data type called a template. Templates provide general windowing operations on grids to enable spatial models for cellular automata, mathematical morphology, and local spatial statistics. A programming language for map algebra that incorporates templates and special processing constructs is described. The programming language is called MapScript. Example program scripts are presented to perform diverse and interesting neighborhood analysis for descriptive, model-based and processed-based analysis.

Recent trends in pay equity: Beyond the aggregate statistics

The earnings gap between men and women has remained comparatively stable at an aggregate level over the 1990s in Australia. From one perspective, this is a reminder of the considerable difficulty of addressing wage differentials once the most overt forms of wage discrimination have been removed, and of the limited impact of most policy initiatives. From another, it may be seen as evidence that dire predictions about the effects of decentralisation on the earnings gap have failed to materialise. In this paper, I use Australian Bureau of Statistics data to show that a number of different trends are evident underneath the relatively static picture shown by the aggregate statistics, particularly as wage dispersion has increased. The data suggest not only that the prospects for pay equity are far from benign, but also that in the current labour market the issue of gender pay inequality cannot be effectively addressed separately from wage inequality more generally.

Estimating and evaluating the statistics of gapped local-alignment scores

We present a novel maximum-likelihood-based algorithm for estimating the distribution of alignment scores from the scores of unrelated sequences in a database search. Using a new method for measuring the accuracy of p-values, we show that our maximum-likelihood-based algorithm is more accurate than existing regression-based and lookup table methods. We explore a more sophisticated way of modeling and estimating the score distributions (using a two-component mixture model and expectation maximization), but conclude that this does not improve significantly over simply ignoring scores with small E-values during estimation. Finally, we measure the classification accuracy of p-values estimated in different ways and observe that inaccurate p-values can, somewhat paradoxically, lead to higher classification accuracy. We explain this paradox and argue that statistical accuracy, not classification accuracy, should be the primary criterion in comparisons of similarity search methods that return p-values that adjust for target sequence length.

Testamentary capacity and aphasia: A descriptive case report with implications for clinical practice

Background: Testamentary capacity (the capacity to make a will) is recognised in the literature as an important issue for speech-language pathologists' assessment of people with aphasia, but current guidelines for clinical practice lack an empirical base. Aims: The research aimed to suggest some guidelines for clinical practice based on information considered relevant for the court in determining testamentary capacity. Methods & Procedures: A recent legal case involving a challenge to the will of a woman with severe aphasia was critically examined with reference to current guidelines in the literature regarding assessment of testamentary capacity. Outcomes & Results: Examination of the information available on the case indicated that the judge gave priority to accounts of the everyday communication of the person with aphasia (including reported discourse samples) over the information provided by expert medical witnesses. The extent to which communication effectiveness could be maximised was found to be a matter of key significance to the determination of capacity. Conclusions: This study has implications for speech-language pathologists' assessment practices and reports, as well as for scope of practice with regard to legal decision making of people with aphasia. These issues are discussed in relation to the World Health Organisation's ICF framework of functioning for social participation.

Padrões espaço-temporais da mortalidade por câncer de mama em mulheres no Estado do Espírito Santo - um estudo ecológico

O câncer de mama é a principal neoplasia maligna que acomete o sexo feminino no Brasil. O câncer de mama é hoje uma doença de extrema importância para a saúde pública nacional, motivando ampla discussão em torno das medidas que promova o seu diagnóstico precoce, a redução em sua morbidade e mortalidade. A presente pesquisa possui três objetivos, cujos resultados encontram-se organizados em artigos. O primeiro objetivo buscou analisar a completude dos dados do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade sobre os óbitos por câncer de mama em mulheres no Espírito Santo, Sudeste e Brasil (1998 a 2007). Realizou-se um estudo descritivo analítico baseado em dados secundários, onde foi analisado o número absoluto e percentual de não preenchimento das variáveis nas declarações de óbitos. Adotou-se escore para avaliar os graus de não completude. Os resultados para as variáveis sexo e idade foram excelentes tanto para o Espírito Santo, Sudeste e Brasil. O preenchimento das variáveis raça/cor, grau de escolaridade e estado civil apresentam problemas no Espírito Santo. Enquanto no Sudeste e Brasil as variáveis raça/cor e escolaridade têm tendência decrescente para a não completude, no Espírito Santo a tendência se mantém estável. Para a variável estado civil, a não completude tem tendência crescente no Estado do Espírito Santo. O segundo objetivo foi analisar a evolução das taxas de mortalidade por câncer de mama, em mulheres no Espírito Santo no período de 1980 a 2007. Estudo de série temporal, cujos dados sobre óbitos foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade e as estimativas populacionais segundo idade e anos-calendário, do Instituto Brasileiro Geografia e Estatística. Os coeficientes específicos 9 de mortalidade, segundo faixa etária, foram calculados anualmente. A análise de tendência foi realizada por meio da padronização das taxas de mortalidade pelo método direto, em que a população do senso IBGE-2000, foi considerada padrão. No período de estudo, ocorreram 2.736 óbitos por câncer de mama. O coeficiente de mortalidade neste período variou de 3,41 a 10,99 por 100.000 mulheres. Os resultados indicam que há tendência de mortalidade por câncer de mama ao longo da série (p=0,001 com crescimento de 75,42%). Todas as faixas etárias a partir de 30 anos apresentaram tendência de crescimento da mortalidade estatisticamente significante (p=0,001). Os percentuais de crescimento foram aumentando, segundo as idades mais avançadas, sendo 48,4% na faixa de 40 a 49 anos, chegando a 92,3%, na faixa de 80 anos e mais. O terceiro objetivo foi realizar a análise espacial dos óbitos em mulheres por câncer de mama no estado do Espírito Santo, nos anos de 2003 a 2007, com análise das correlações espaciais dessa mortalidade e componentes do município. O cenário foi o Estado do Espírito Santo, composto por 78 municípios. Para análise dos dados, utilizou-se a abordagem bayesiana (métodos EBest Global e EBest Local) para correção de taxas epidemiológicas. Calculou-se o índice I de Moran, para dependência espacial em nível global e a estatística Moran Local. As maiores taxas estão concentradas em 19 municípios pertencentes às Microrregiões: Metropolitana (Fundão, Vitória, Vila Velha, Viana, Cariacica e Guarapari), Metrópole Expandida Sul (Anchieta, Alfredo Chaves), Pólo Cachoeiro (Vargem Alta, Rio Novo do Sul, Mimoso do Sul, Cachoeiro de Itapemirim, Castelo, Jerônimo Monteiro, Bom Jesus do Norte, Apiacá e Muqui) e Caparaó (Alegre e São José do Calçado). Os resultados da Estimação Bayesiana (Índice de Moran) dos óbitos por câncer de mama em mulheres ocorridos no estado do Espírito Santo, segundo os dados brutos e 10 ajustados indicam a existência de correlação espacial significativa para o mapa Local (I = 0,573; p = 0,001) e Global (I = 0,118; p = 0,039). Os dados brutos não apresentam correlação espacial (I = 0,075; p = 0,142).