Incorporating PGMs into a BDI Architecture

In this paper, we present a hybrid BDI-PGM framework, in which PGMs (Probabilistic Graphical Models) are incorporated into a BDI (belief-desire-intention) architecture. This work is motivated by the need to address the scalability and noisy sensing issues in SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) systems. Our approach uses the incorporated PGMs to model the uncertainty reasoning and decision making processes of agents situated in a stochastic environment. In particular, we use Bayesian networks to reason about an agent’s beliefs about the environment based on its sensory observations, and select optimal plans according to the utilities of actions defined in influence diagrams. This approach takes the advantage of the scalability of the BDI architecture and the uncertainty reasoning capability of PGMs. We present a prototype of the proposed approach using a transit scenario to validate its effectiveness.

An Architecture of a Multi-Agent System for SCADA - Dealing With Uncertainty, Plans and Actions

This paper presents a multi-agent system approach to address the difficulties encountered in traditional SCADA systems deployed in critical environments such as electrical power generation, transmission and distribution. The approach models uncertainty and combines multiple sources of uncertain information to deliver robust plan selection. We examine the approach in the context of a simplified power supply/demand scenario using a residential grid connected solar system and consider the challenges of modelling and reasoning with
uncertain sensor information in this environment. We discuss examples of plans and actions required for sensing, establish and discuss the effect of uncertainty on such systems and investigate different uncertainty theories and how they can fuse uncertain information from multiple sources for effective decision making in
such a complex system.

The frequency of gastrointestinal endocrine tumours in a well-defined population--Northern Ireland 1970-1985

The reported incidence of gastrointestinal endocrine tumours is variable. In Northern Ireland circumstances allowing such an assessment are favourable with a central diagnostic laboratory and register established to collect data on tumours from a well-defined population of 1.5 million people. From 1970 to 1985, 368 cases were recorded of which 85 per cent were carcinoid tumours. The annual incidence of carcinoid tumours was 1.3 per 100,000 of the population and the majority occurred in the appendix (61 per cent). No patients presented with the carcinoid syndrome. The annual incidence for other tumours was 0.12 per 100,000 for insulinomas; islet cell tumours of unknown type 0.07; Zollinger-Ellison syndrome 0.05; and multiple endocrine neoplasia (MEN) 0.05. There were two cases of VIPoma, one glucagonoma, one neurotensinoma and one tumour producing ACTH. It is possible that some tumours are more uncommon than others because of difficulty in diagnosis.

A Zoologist with a Taste for the Past: The Earl of Cranbrook’s Contribution to Zooarchaeological Research in Southeast Asia

The Earl of Cranbrook (V) (then Lord Medway) was fi rst introduced to archaeological research in 1958 when he participated in excavations at the Niah Caves, Sarawak Borneo. In that same year he published a paper entitled ‘Food bone in Niah Cave excavations (-1958)’ in the Sarawak Museum Journal. Unbeknownst to him at the time, his individual and intuitive research was on a par with, if not methodologically ahead of, burgeoning studies in the fi eld of zooarchaeology that were taking place at leading academic institutions in Europe and the United States. This paper recounts and lauds the signifi cant contributions the Earl of Cranbrook has made to the establishment and furtherance of a discipline over more than 50 years. 

Contribution of rarity and commonness to patterns of species richness

There is little understanding in ecology as to how biodiversity patterns emerge from the distribution patterns of individual species. Here we consider the question of the contributions of rare (restricted range) and common (widespread) species to richness patterns. Considering a species richness pattern, is most of the spatial structure, in terms of where the peaks and troughs of diversity lie, caused by the common species or the rare species (or neither)? Using southern African and British bird richness patterns, we show here that commoner species are most responsible for richness patterns. While rare and common species show markedly different species richness patterns, most spatial patterning in richness is caused by relatively few, more common, species. The level of redundancy we found suggests that a broad understanding of what determines the majority of spatial variation in biodiversity may be had by considering only a minority of species.