Az euróövezet bővítése és euróbevezetési stratégiák (Euro-area enlargement and euro adoption strategies)

Tanulmányunk azokat a kockázatokat és kihívásokat vizsgálja, amelyekkel az új EU tagállamok szembesülnek az euróhoz vezető úton, valamint elemzi az euró bevezetésével és a bevezetés időzítésével kapcsolatos stratégiákat is. Megvizsgáljuk a reál- és nominálkonvergencia kapcsolatát az euróövezetbe csatlakozás szemszögéből. Véleményünk szerint a gazdaság egy főre jutó jövedelemben mért kezdeti fejlettségi szintje, valamint a reálkonvergencia sebessége kihatnak a követendő stratégiákra és a belépés időzítésére. Minél alacsonyabb ugyanis egy ország egy főre jutó jövedelme, annál nagyobb az árszínvonalbeli lemaradása (amit be kell hoznia), és az új tagok jelenlegi helyzetét figyelembe véve annál nagyobb a veszélye annak, hogy a hitelek növekedése túlzottá, a gazdaság túlfűtötté válik. Úgy gondoljuk, hogy az inflációkövetés lebegő árfolyam mellett megfelelőbb az árszínvonal felzárkózási folyamatának kezelésére, mint valamilyen merev árfolyamrögzítés. Elemezzük a maastrichti kritériumokat az új EU-tagállamok gazdasági jellemzőinek szempontjából, és az inflációs kritérium módosítását javasoljuk, amely jelenlegi formájában elvesztette közgazdasági értelmét. JEL kód: E31, E52, E60, F30. /===/ This paper commissioned by DG ECFIN from the EU Commission as part of the EMU@10 project and published in Hungarian by the permission of the EU Commission. The origi-nal English version is available at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/ publication_summary12103_en.htm. The paper discusses the risks and challenges faced by new members on the road to the euro and the strategies and timing of euro adoption. It investigates the real/nominal convergence nexus from the perspective of euro-area entry, arguing that the initial level of economic development, as measured by per capita income, and the speed of real convergence have a bearing on the strategies to follow and the timing of entry into the euro area, for the lower per capita income is, the larger is the price-level gap to close and the greater the danger of credit booms and overheating. It is argued argue that inflation targeting with floating rates is better suited than hard pegs to managing the price-level catch-up process. A suggestion is made for modifying the Maastricht inflation criterion, which as currently defined has lost its economic logic.

Négy jellegzetesség. A magyar fejlődés politikai gazdaságtani megközelítésben. 2. rész = Four characteristic features. Development in Hungary from the aspect of political economy - II.

A tulajdonviszonyok és intézmények átalakulását is a fokozatosság, a szerves fejlődés jellemzi; Magyarországon a hosszú reformszocialista fázist a politikai fordulat után sem követte ugrás a piacgazdaság felé, bár az átalakulás felgyorsult. A cikk a fokozatosság érvényesülését az értékesítési stratégia sokféle változatát alkalmazó, burjánzó privatizációban, az új vállalkozások keletkezésének folyamatában, a liberalizálás menetében és a jogi infrastruktúra változásában mutatja be. Elemzi az átmenet során megerősödő korporatista elemek hatását a magyar gazdaságpolitikára. Végül néhány összefoglaló megjegyzést fűz a magyar fejlődéshez a politikai gazdaságtan és a politikai filozófia szemszögéből. Az elmúlt harminc évben a mindenkori kormánynak jól érzékelhető preferenciája volt a radikális intézkedések elodázása, a társadalmi adósság felhalmozódásának vállalása a konfliktusok elkerülése érdekében. A szerző felhívja a figyelmet a különböző nemzedékek eltérő időpreferenciájára és az ezzel kapcsolatos etikai problémákra. Befejezésül a népszerűtlen intézkedéseket az állampolgárok nagy hányadának véleményével szemben is felvállaló kormányzás és a demokrácia viszonyáról szól. / === / Gradualism and organic development also distinguish the transformation of property relations and institutions. Hungary's long reform­socialist phase was not followed, after the political change, by a leap towards a market economy, although the transformation became faster. The article shows how gradualism applies to the proliferating of privatization, with its wide variety of selling strategies, to the foundation process of new firms, to the course of liberalization, and to change in the legal infrastructure. It analyses the effect on Hungarian economic policy of corporatist elements which strengthen during the transition. Finally, it makes some comments summing up Hungarian development in terms of political economy and political philosophy. The government at any time in the last thirty years showed an obvious preference for putting off radical measures and accepting an accumulation of social debt as a way of averting conflict. The article notes differences of time preference between generations and the ethical problems these raise. Finally, it makes remarks on the relationship between democracy and an administration intent on unpopular measures opposed by a high proportion of citizens.

Az autóipar szerkezeti átrendeződése – Vállalati stratégiák és a válság hatásai (Structural change in the automotive industry – corporate strategies and the impact of the crisis)

Az írás a globális értékláncok élén álló autóipari cégek világgazdasági válságra adott reakcióit foglalja össze. Megállapítja, hogy a válságnak messze nincs vége: az iparág globális átrendeződése folytatódik. A globális értékláncokba sikeresen betagozódott közép-európai autóipari klaszter ezeknek a folyamatoknak mindmáig nyertese volt. Számolni kell azonban azzal, hogy továbbra is sok a technológiai és a piaci bizonytalanság: az új szereplők belépése, új üzleti modellek elterjedése hosszabb távon felboríthatja a jelenlegi status quo-t, és veszélyeztetheti a hagyományos autóipari befektetőiket munkabér-alapú versenyképességgel megtartani próbáló közép- és kelet-európai országok pozícióit. Az autóipari működő tőkét fogadó közép-kelet-európai országok számára hosszabb távon veszélyt jelenthet az autóipari üzleti modellek átalakulása, a gyártás teljes kiszervezése komplex gyártási szolgáltatást vállaló cégekhez, mivel ez esetben az értéklánc vezető vállalatai bezárhatják a régióban működő gyártóbázisaikat. Az értékláncok élén álló globális cégek „menekülés a minőségbe” stratégiája helyi szinten is követhető, követendő, a működő tőkét fogadó országok versenyképessége kizárólag a helyi leányvállalatok állandó „feljebb lépésével” tartható fenn. ______ This paper summarizes lead firms’ reactions to crisis in global automotive value chains. The paper advances five theses. Author argues that crisis is not over yet, the global restructuring of the industry continues. Actors in the CEE automotive cluster have successfully become integrated into global value chains and have thereby been the winners of past restructuring processes. Nevertheless, technological and market uncertainties prevail: entry of new economic actors and the diffusion of new business models may, in the long run, disrupt the current status quo and jeopardise the world economic position of CEE countries that have been relying solely on their labour cost advantages to sustain direct investment inflows in their automotive industries. In the long run the automotive industries of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies may become threatened by the transformation of the prevailing automotive business model, the outsourcing of manufacturing and related support activities to complex manufacturing services providers, which could lead to the closure of lead firms’ manufacturing facilities in CEE. Lead firms’ increased focus on high quality high value adding activities strategy can and should be followed by local subsidiaries through a continuous strive for upgrading.

The development and analysis of a field project model curriculum and its impact on achievement and attitude toward science and the environment with at-risk eleventh and twelfth grade students

This study was an evaluation of a Field Project Model Curriculum and its impact on achievement, attitude toward science, attitude toward the environment, self-concept, and academic self-concept with at-risk eleventh and twelfth grade students. One hundred eight students were pretested and posttested on the Piers-Harris Children's Self-Concept Scale, PHCSC (1985); the Self-Concept as a Learner Scale, SCAL (1978); the Marine Science Test, MST (1987); the Science Attitude Inventory, SAI (1970); and the Environmental Attitude Scale, EAS (1972). Using a stratified random design, three groups of students were randomly assigned according to sex and stanine level, to three treatment groups. Group one received the field project method, group two received the field study method, and group three received the field trip method. All three groups followed the marine biology course content as specified by Florida Student Performance Objectives and Frameworks. The intervention occurred for ten months with each group participating in outside-of-classroom activities on a trimonthly basis. Analysis of covariance procedures were used to determine treatment effects. F-ratios, p-levels and t-tests at p $<$.0062 (.05/8) indicated that a significant difference existed among the three treatment groups. Findings indicated that groups one and two were significantly different from group three with group one displaying significantly higher results than group two. There were no significant differences between males and females in performance on the five dependent variables. The tenets underlying environmental education are congruent with the recommendations toward the reform of science education. These include a value analysis approach, inquiry methods, and critical thinking strategies that are applied to environmental issues. ^

A qualitative analysis of the congruency of Jungian psychological preferences identified by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and the human resource development role of instructor/facilitator

The purpose of this ethnographic study was to describe and explain the congruency of psychological preferences identified by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and the human resource development (HRD) role of instructor/facilitator. This investigation was conducted with 23 HRD professionals who worked in the Miami, Florida area as instructors/facilitators with adult learners in job-related contexts.^ The study was conducted using qualitative strategies of data collection and analysis. The research participants were selected through a purposive sampling strategy. Data collection strategies included: (a) administration and scoring of the MBTI, Form G, (b) open-ended and semi-structured interviews, (c) participant observations of the research subjects at their respective work sites and while conducting training sessions, (d) field notes, and (e) contact summary sheets to record field research encounters. Data analysis was conducted with the use of a computer program for qualitative analysis called FolioViews 3.1 for Windows. This included: (a) coding of transcribed interviews and field notes, (b) theme analysis, (c) memoing, and (d) cross-case analysis.^ The three major themes that emerged in relation to the congruency of psychological preferences and the role of instructor/facilitator were: (1) designing and preparing instruction/facilitation, (2) conducting training and managing group process, and (3) interpersonal relations and perspectives among instructors/facilitators.^ The first two themes were analyzed through the combination of the four Jungian personality functions. These combinations are: sensing-thinking (ST), sensing-feeling (SF), intuition-thinking (NT), and intuition-feeling (NF). The third theme was analyzed through the combination of the attitudes or energy focus and the judgment function. These combinations are: extraversion-thinking (ET), extraversion-feeling (EF), introversion-thinking (IT), and introversion-feeling (IF).^ A last area uncovered by this ethnographic study was the influence exerted by a training and development culture on the instructor/facilitator role. This professional culture is described and explained in terms of the shared values and expectations reported by the study respondents. ^

Fostering the development of identity and intimacy during late adolescence

This dissertation tested the effectiveness of a psychosocial intervention, the Personal Development in the Context of Relationships (PDCR) program. The aim of the PDCR seeks to foster the development (or enhancement) of a sense of identity and intimacy among adolescents who participate in the program. The PDCR is a psychosocial group intervention which utilizes interpersonal relationship issues as a context to foster personal development in identity formation and facilitate the development of an individual's capacity for intimacy. The PDCR uses intervention strategies which include skills and knowledge development, experiential group exercises, and exploration for insight. Participants consisted of 110 late adolescents. A mixed-subjects design (pre-post-follow up) was used to assess the effectiveness, efficacy and utility of the PDCR on the experimental condition relative to a content/social contact control group and a time control condition. Identity exploration and identity commitment were measured by the Ego Identity Process Questionnaire (EIPQ). Total intimacy and identity role satisfaction were measured by the Erikson Psychosocial Stage Inventory (EPSI). Relationship quality and closeness were measured by the Relationship Quality Scale (RQS) and the Relationship Closeness Inventory (RCI) in an effort to assess whether any potential impact on interpersonal relationships occurs. Mixed MANOVAs were used to analyze the data with results yielding significant values for increased total identity exploration from pre to post test and decreases in total identity commitment from pre to post to follow-up test in the experimental group relative to the control conditions on the EIPQ. Further results indicated increases in total intimacy from pre to post to follow-up test in the experimental group relative to the control conditions on the EPSI. No clear trends emerged from pre to post to follow-up test for the Relationship measures. Results are discussed in terms of both practical and theoretical implications. ^

Facing a paradigm shift in professional credentialing: Preparedness of registered dietitians for Professional Development 2001

In the year 2001, the Commission on Dietetic Registration (CDR) will begin a new process of recertifying Registered Dietitians (RD) using a self-directed lifelong learning portfolio model. The model, entitled Professional Development 2001 (PD 2001), is designed to increase competency through targeted learning. This portfolio consists of five steps: reflection, learning needs assessment, formulation of a learning plan, maintenance of a learning log, and evaluation of the learning plan. By targeting learning, PD 2001 is predicted to foster more up-to-date practitioners than the current method that requires only a quantity of continuing education hours. This is the first major change in the credentialing system since 1975. The success or failure of the new system will impact the future of approximately 60,000 practitioners. The purpose of this study was to determine the readiness of RDs to change to the new system. Since the model is dependent on setting goals and developing learning plans, this study examined the methods dietitians use to determine their five-year goals and direction in practice. It also determined RD's attitudes towards PD 2001 and identified some of the factors that influenced their beliefs. A dual methodological design using focus groups and questionnaires was utilized. Sixteen focus groups were held during state dietetic association meetings. Demographic data was collected on the 132 registered dietitians who participated in the focus groups using a self-administered questionnaire. The audiotaped sessions were transcribed into 643 pages of text and analyzed using Non-numerical Unstructured Data - Indexing Searching and Theorizing (NUD*IST version 4). Thirty-four of the 132 participants (26%) had formal five-year goals. Fifty-four participants (41%) performed annual self-assessments. In general, dietitians did not currently have professional goals nor conduct self-assessments and they claimed they did not have the skills or confidence to perform these tasks. Major barriers to successful implementation of PD 2001 are uncertainty, misinterpretation, and misinformation about the process and purpose, which in turn contribute to negative impressions. Renewed vigor to provide a positive, accurate message along with presenting goal-setting strategies will be necessary for better acceptance of this professional development process. ^

The effect of basketball sport aerobics on basketball skill development for fifth-grade students

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of an experimental teaching method, Sport Aerobics, on the basketball skill acquisition of fifth grade students. This study investigated the differences in the shooting, dribbling, and passing scores of students taught with Sport Aerobics instruction compared to those taught with a traditional method, Practice Style. Sport Aerobics is an instructional method based on a theoretical framework developed by the researcher to enhance skill acquisition. This framework leads to teaching strategies such as using immediate feedback and specific cueing; arranging for students to engage in object free movement; arranging lessons, according to the framework's concept of movement progression, into lessons staged according to skill and sub-skill complexity; and instructing based on whole group organization. Sport Aerobic instructional strategies were designed to facilitate process learning that is recognized as important in today's development learning approach for age related curriculums. In contrast, the traditional Practice Style uses product-oriented strategies. ^ Four classrooms, consisting of seventy-nine fifth grade students from two physical education programs, at different locations, were randomly assigned to two treatments; Sport Aerobics and Practice Style for instruction over a 15 period curriculum. Using the American Alliance Physical Education Recreation & Dance tests, both groups were pretested and posttested for skill achievement of shooting, dribbling, and passing. Pretest and posttest skill score samples were collected and evaluated. ANCOVAs were performed on the posttests adjusted for the pretests to determine whether or not there would be greater achievement of skills with the Sport Aerobics method. Results failed to establish significant scoring differences between the two methods. Based on the literature and study findings a recommendation is made that longer lesson units will assist in the investigation of the effectiveness of both the instructional model and the individual elements that facilitate skill acquisition. ^

Alternative service organizations: Funding environment, strategies, and patterns of adaptation

This study explored the strategies that community-based, consumer-focused advocacy, alternative service organizations (ASOs), implemented to adapt to the changes in the nonprofit funding environment (Oliver & McShane, 1979; Perlmutter, 1988a, 1994). It is not clear as to the extent to which current funding trends have influenced ASOs as little empirical research has been conducted in this area (Magnus, 2001; Marquez, 2003; Powell, 1986). ^ This study used a qualitative research design to investigate strategies implemented by these organizations to adapt to changes such as decreasing government, foundation, and corporate funding and an increasing number of nonprofit organizations. More than 20 community informants helped to identify, locate, and provide information about ASOs. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of 30 ASO executive directors from diverse organizations in Miami-bade and Broward Counties, in South Florida. ^ Data analysis was facilitated by the use of ATLAS.ti, version 5, a qualitative data analysis computer software program designed for grounded theory research. This process generated five major themes: Funding Environment; Internal Structure; Strategies for Survival; Sustainability; and Committing to the Cause, Mission, and Vision. ^ The results indicate that ASOs are struggling to survive financially by cutting programs, decreasing staff, and limiting service to consumers. They are also exploring ways to develop fundraising strategies; for example, increasing the number of proposals written for grants, focusing on fund development, and establishing for-profit ventures. Even organizations that state that they are currently financially stable are concerned about their financial vulnerability. There is little flexibility or cushioning to adjust to "funding jolts." The fear of losing current funding levels and being placed in a tenuous financial situation is a constant concern for these ASOs. ^ Further data collected from the self-administered Funding Checklist and demographic forms were coded and analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Descriptive information and frequencies generated findings regarding the revenue, staff compliment, use of volunteers and fundraising consultants, and fundraising practices. The study proposes a model of funding relationships and presents implications for social work practice, and policy, along with recommendations for future research. ^

Development of prediction models for freeway incident durations using data mining techniques

The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^

Development of an odor management plan for industrial stationary sources in an urban environment: A case study for Broward County, Florida

Objectionable odors remain at the top of air pollution complaints in urban areas such as Broward County that is subject to increasing residential and industrial developments. The odor complaints in Broward County escalated by 150 percent for the 2001 to 2004 period although the population increased by only 6 percent. It is estimated that in 2010 the population will increase to 2.5 million. Relying solely on enforcing the local odor ordinance is evidently not sufficient to manage the escalating odor complaint trends. An alternate approach similar to odor management plans (OMPs) that are successful in managing major malodor sources such as animal farms is required. ^ This study aims to develop and determine the feasibility of implementing a comprehensive odor management plan (COMP) for the entire Broward County. Unlike existing OMPs for single sources where the receptors (i.e. the complainants) are located beyond the boundary of the source, the COMP addresses a complex model of multiple sources and receptors coexisting within the boundary of the entire county. Each receptor is potentially subjected to malodor emissions from multiple sources within the county. Also, the quantity and quality of the source/receptor variables are continuously changing. ^ The results of this study show that it is feasible to develop a COMP that adopts a systematic procedure to: (1) Generate maps of existing odor complaint areas and malodor sources, (2) Identify potential odor sources (target sources) responsible for existing odor complaints, (3) Identify possible odor control strategies for target sources, (4) Determine the criteria for implementing odor control strategies, (5) Develop an odor complaint response protocol, and (6) Conduct odor impact analyses for new sources to prevent future odor related issues. Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to identify existing complaint areas. A COMP software that incorporates existing United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air dispersion software is developed to determine the target sources, predict the likelihood of new complaints, and conduct odor impact analysis. The odor response protocol requires pre-planning field investigations and conducting surveys to optimize the local agency available resources while protecting the citizen's welfare, as required by the Clean Air Act. ^