987 resultados para Crime pattern theory


Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Clin Microbiol Infect ABSTRACT: The aetiological diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is challenging in children, and serological markers would be useful surrogates for epidemiological studies of pneumococcal CAP. We compared the use of anti-pneumolysin (Ply) antibody alone or with four additional pneumococcal surface proteins (PSPs) (pneumococcal histidine triad D (PhtD), pneumococcal histidine triad E (PhtE), LytB, and pneumococcal choline-binding protein A (PcpA)) as serological probes in children hospitalized with CAP. Recent pneumococcal exposure (positive blood culture for Streptococcus pneumoniae, Ply(+) blood PCR finding, and PSP seroresponse) was predefined as supporting the diagnosis of presumed pneumococcal CAP (P-CAP). Twenty-three of 75 (31%) children with CAP (mean age 33.7 months) had a Ply(+) PCR finding and/or a ≥2-fold increase of antibodies. Adding seroresponses to four PSPs identified 12 additional patients (35/75, 45%), increasing the sensitivity of the diagnosis of P-CAP from 0.44 (Ply alone) to 0.94. Convalescent anti-Ply and anti-PhtD antibody titres were significantly higher in P-CAP than in non P-CAP patients (446 vs. 169 ELISA Units (EU)/mL, p 0.031, and 189 vs. 66 EU/mL, p 0.044), confirming recent exposure. Acute anti-PcpA titres were three-fold lower (71 vs. 286 EU/mL, p <0.001) in P-CAP children. Regression analyses confirmed a low level of acute PcpA antibodies as the only independent predictor (p 0.002) of P-CAP. Novel PSPs facilitate the demonstration of recent pneumococcal exposure in CAP children. Low anti-PcpA antibody titres at admission distinguished children with P-CAP from those with CAP with a non-pneumococcal origin.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The method of stochastic dynamic programming is widely used in ecology of behavior, but has some imperfections because of use of temporal limits. The authors presented an alternative approach based on the methods of the theory of restoration. Suggested method uses cumulative energy reserves per time unit as a criterium, that leads to stationary cycles in the area of states. This approach allows to study the optimal feeding by analytic methods.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The mission of the Crime Victim Assistance Division and the Crime Victim Assistance Board is to advocate for the rights and the needs of crime victims and ensure that all crime victims and survivors will be treated with respect and dignity.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The mission of the Crime Victim Assistance Division and the Crime Victim Assistance Board is to advocate for the rights and the needs of crime victims and ensure that all crime victims and survivors will be treated with respect and dignity.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The mission of the Crime Victim Assistance Division and the Crime Victim Assistance Board is to advocate for the rights and the needs of crime victims and ensure that all crime victims and survivors will be treated with respect and dignity.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The aim of this paper is to analyse how economic integration in Europe has affected industrial geographical concentration in Spain and explain what the driving forces behind industry location are. Firstly, we construct regional specialisation and geographical concentration indices for Spanish 50 provinces and 30 industrial sectors in 1979, 1986 and 1992. Secondly, we carry out an econometric analysis of the determinants of geographical concentration of industries. Our main conclusion is that there is no evidence of increasing specialisation in Spain between 1979 and 1992 and that the most important determinant of Spain¿s economic geography is scale economies. Furthermore, traditional trade theory has no effects in explaining the pattern of industrial concentration

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In this paper we study, having as theoretical reference the economic model of crime (Becker, 1968; Ehrlich, 1973), which are the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of crime in Spain paying attention on the role of provincial peculiarities. We estimate a crime equation using a panel dataset of Spanish provinces (NUTS3) for the period 1993 to 1999 employing the GMMsystem estimator. Empirical results suggest that lagged crime rate and clear-up rate are correlated to all typologies of crime rate considered. Property crimes are better explained by socioeconomic variables (GDP per capita, GDP growth rate and percentage of population with high school and university degree), while demographic factors reveal important and significant influences, in particular for crimes against the person. These results are obtained using an instrumental variable approach that takes advantage of the dynamic properties of our dataset to control for both measurement errors in crime data and joint endogeneity of the explanatory variables

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Aim. To predict the fate of alpine interactions involving specialized species, using a monophagous beetle and its host-plant as a case study. Location. The Alps. Methods. We investigated genetic structuring of the herbivorous beetle Oreina gloriosa and its specific host-plant Peucedanum ostruthium. We used genome fingerprinting (in the insect and the plant) and sequence data (in the insect) to compare the distribution of the main gene pools in the two associated species and to estimate divergence time in the insect, a proxy for the temporal origin of the interaction. We quantified the similarity in spatial genetic structures by performing a Procrustes analysis, a tool from the shape theory. Finally, we simulated recolonization of an empty space analogous to the deglaciated Alps just after ice retreat by two lineages from two species showing unbalanced dependence, to examine how timing of the recolonization process, as well as dispersal capacities of associated species, could explain the observed pattern. Results. Contrasting with expectations based on their asymmetrical dependence, patterns in the beetle and plant were congruent at a large scale. Exceptions occurred at a regional scale in areas of admixture, matching known suture zones in Alpine plants. Simulations using a lattice-based model suggested these empirical patterns arose during or soon after recolonization, long after the estimated origin of the interaction c. 0.5 million years ago. Main conclusions. Species-specific interactions are scarce in alpine habitats because glacial cycles have limited opportunities for coevolution. Their fate, however, remains uncertain under climate change. Here we show that whereas most dispersal routes are paralleled at large scale, regional incongruence implies that the destinies of the species might differ under changing climate. This may be a consequence of the host-dependence of the beetle that locally limits the establishment of dispersing insects.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In this article, we analyze the ability of the early olfactory system to detect and discriminate different odors by means of information theory measurements applied to olfactory bulb activity images. We have studied the role that the diversity and number of receptor neuron types play in encoding chemical information. Our results show that the olfactory receptors of the biological system are low correlated and present good coverage of the input space. The coding capacity of ensembles of olfactory receptors with the same receptive range is maximized when the receptors cover half of the odor input space - a configuration that corresponds to receptors that are not particularly selective. However, the ensemble's performance slightly increases when mixing uncorrelated receptors of different receptive ranges. Our results confirm that the low correlation between sensors could be more significant than the sensor selectivity for general purpose chemo-sensory systems, whether these are biological or biomimetic.