Mortalité par suicide au Canada depuis le début du XXe siècle : perspectives sociodémographiques et macroéconomiques

Robert Bourbeau, département de démographie (Directeur de recherche) Marianne Kempeneers, département de sociologie (Codirectrice de recherche)

A Novel Method for the 3-D Reconstruction of Scoliotic Ribs From Frontal and Lateral Radiographs

Among the external manifestations of scoliosis, the rib hump, which is associated with the ribs' deformities and rotations, constitutes the most disturbing aspect of the scoliotic deformity for patients. A personalized 3-D model of the rib cage is important for a better evaluation of the deformity, and hence, a better treatment planning. A novel method for the 3-D reconstruction of the rib cage, based only on two standard radiographs, is proposed in this paper. For each rib, two points are extrapolated from the reconstructed spine, and three points are reconstructed by stereo radiography. The reconstruction is then refined using a surface approximation. The method was evaluated using clinical data of 13 patients with scoliosis. A comparison was conducted between the reconstructions obtained with the proposed method and those obtained by using a previous reconstruction method based on two frontal radiographs. A first comparison criterion was the distances between the reconstructed ribs and the surface topography of the trunk, considered as the reference modality. The correlation between ribs axial rotation and back surface rotation was also evaluated. The proposed method successfully reconstructed the ribs of the 6th-12th thoracic levels. The evaluation results showed that the 3-D configuration of the new rib reconstructions is more consistent with the surface topography and provides more accurate measurements of ribs axial rotation.

Adoption of Technology-Enabled Banking Self-Services: Antecedents and Consequences

School of Management Studies, Cochin University of Science and Technology

A study of the co-operative banking system in kerala

The co-operative credit structure in a state set up consists of 3 tiers — Primary Societies at the base, District Co-operative Banks at the middle and State Cooperative Bank at the top. But, some societies at the primary level are governed by, in addition to Co-operative Societies Act, the Banking Regulation Act. Thus they are under dual control. In addition, they are working under the direct purview of Reserve Bank of India. The scope of this study is restricted to such Primary Societies, District Co-operative Banks and State Co-operative Bank. For the evaluation of the working of Co-operative Banks, the board of directors and staff were interviewed with the help of pre-constructed and pre-tested interview schedules. However, the share holders and customers were not interviewed mainly because almost all respondents were reluctant to provide copies of an exhaustive list of share holders and non-share holder customers, for the purpose of maintaining secrecy. This being an individual work, it was found physically and financially very difficult to extend the study so as to cover the share holders and non-share holder customers. Limitations of time were also responsible for restricting this study. The period of study was restricted to 1980-'81 to 1983-'84 as the data relating to earlier periods were firstly not available from all banks and secondly the prior data was considered out of date for the purpose of the study.

Factors affecting choice of financial services among rural consumers: Emerging experiences from Gicumbi District, northern Province in Rwanda

Enhancement of financial inclusivity of rural communities is often recognised as a key strategy for achieving economic development in third world countries. The main objective of this study was to examine the factors that influence consumers’ choice of a rural bank in Gicumbi district of Rwanda. Data was collected using structured questionnaires and analysed using a binary probit regression model and non-parametric procedures. Most consumers were aware of Popular Bank of Rwanda (BPR) and Umurenge SACCO through radio advertisements, social networks and community meetings. Accessibility, interest rates and quality of services influenced choice of a given financial intermediary. Moreover, the decision to open a rural bank account was significantly influenced by education and farm size (p<0.1). These results indicate the need for financial managers to consider these findings for successful marketing campaigns.

The institutional environment and its influence on political options to Protect Winnipeg’s Female garments Workers against the impact of globalization

The principal objective of this paper is to identify the relationship between the re­sults of the Canadian policies implemented to protect female workers against the impact of globalization on the garment industry and the institutional setting in which this labour market is immersed in Winnipeg. This research paper begins with a brief summary of the institutional theory appro­ach that sheds light on the analysis of the effects of institutions on the policy options to protect female workers of the Winnipeg garment industry. Next, this paper identi­fies the set of beliefs, formal procedures, routines, norms and conventions that cha­racterize the institutional environment of the female workers of Winnipeg’s garment industry. Subsequently, this paper descri­bes the impact of free trade policies on the garment industry of Winnipeg. Afterward, this paper presents an analysis of the ba­rriers that the institutional features of the garment sector in Winnipeg can set to the successful achievement of policy options addressed to protect the female workforce of this sector. Three policy options are considered: ethical purchasing; training/retraining programs and social engage­ment support for garment workers; and protection of migrated workers through promoting and facilitating bonds between Canada’s trade unions and trade unions of the labour sending countries. Finally, this paper concludes that the formation of isolated cultural groups inside of factories; the belief that there is gender and race discrimination on the part of the garment industry management against workers; the powerless social conditions of immi­grant women; the economic rationality of garment factories’ managers; and the lack of political will on the part of Canada and the labour sending countries to set effective bilateral agreements to protect migrate wor­kers, are the principal barriers that divide the actors involved in the garment industry in Winnipeg. This division among the prin­cipal actors of Winnipeg’s garment industry impedes the change toward more efficient institutions and, hence, the successful achievement of policy options addressed to protect women workers. 

La satisfacción del cliente bancario en Canadá: Diferencias entre canadienses e inmigrantes de la América Latina – Revisión y traducción

The measure of customer satisfaction level is one of the most important topics at present time in marketing science. In addition, its measure in the bank field takes force in view of the high level of competition inside it, even more so if the study counts “immigrants” as a variable in analysis, a much important variable in the demographic situation of Canada. Oliver (1980) proposes the model of “disconfirmation” to measure customer satisfaction level; this model confirms that the difference between customer perceived performance and customer expectations gives as result his satisfaction level (additional model). Presently multiple scales exist to evaluate and to quantify this satisfaction level, Parasuraman (1987) is the creator of the servqual scale, while Avkiran (1999) developed the bankserv scale in order to evaluate customer expectations and customer satisfaction level specifically inside the bank field; this scale was divided in four factors via factorial analysis. Literature suggests the presence of a relation between individual expectations and/or satisfaction level, and the individual tolerance level towards non-constructed situations (Newman, 2001). Hofstede (1980) developed five cultural dimensions worldwide; among these is the Uncertainty Avoidance Index (uai) that fits to the dimension directly related to customer expectations and customer satisfaction levels, since it measures the tolerance levels towards non-structured ituations. For this research I focused on the satisfaction model analysis proposed by Oliver (1980) based on Avkiran´s scale (1999), having the Latin American or Canadian origin as variables. The concept of Hofstede’s cultural differences leads me to propose two samples: 50 Canadian French speakers and 50 Latin American individuals (Canadian residents). Results demonstrate that in the Latin American group the expectations are in average higher that in the Canadian group, considering all four factors (Avkiran). Perceived performance and satisfaction level are higher in the Latin American group that in the Canadian group for “personal branch conduct” and “access to personalized services” factors, nevertheless, no statistically significant difference has been proved for “credibility” and “communication” factors. The expectations variable presents a mediating effect over the relation between variables uai (Latin American or Canadian origin) and satisfaction level. This effect is partial for “personal branch conduct” and perfect for “access to personalized services”.

Aproximación al manejo de la seguridad ambiental canadiense y estadounidense frente a la degradación del sistema de la los Grandes Lagos. Periodo 1995-2000

El propósito de la presente monografía es determinar la relación entre la degradación y navegación en los Grandes Lagos en la noción de seguridad ambiental de Estados Unidos y Canadá en un entorno de interdependencia entre 1995 - 2000. En ese sentido, se busca determinar como los recursos de poder de Canadá y Estados Unidos en la relación degradación-navegación transforma la noción de seguridad ambiental. De este modo, se analiza el concepto de seguridad ambiental desde la navegación, elemento esencial para entender la relación bilateral dentro del sistema de los Grandes Lagos. Esta investigación de tipo cualitativo que responde a las variables de la seguridad ambiental planteadas por Barry Buzan, Thomas Homer-Nixon, y Stephan Libiszewski, y a la teoría de la Interdependencia Compleja por Robert Keohane y Joseph Nye, pretende avanzar hacia la complejización de la dimensión ambiental lejos de la tradicional definición antropocéntrica.

Colombia y el transpacific partnership agreement

Colombia, a partir de 1990, inicia un plan de gobierno enfocado en la apertura económica, con estrategias que propugnaban por un cambio en el modelo económico a través de políticas como la reducción de aranceles a las importaciones y otra serie de medidas proteccionistas, flexibilización laboral, la reducción del papel del Estado para darle protagonismo al sector privado y procesos de privatización de empresas públicas En este entorno internacional se ha adquirido conciencia de que, en un mundo globalizado y cada vez más interdependiente, no puede haber espacio para “aventuras solitarias de Estados soberanos”, lo que justifica la proliferación de organizaciones multilaterales en América Latina y el Caribe en la última década. Recientemente Colombia ha mostrado su interés en entrar a formar parte de un bloque económico de gran relevancia a nivel internacional: el "Transpacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP); tratado integrado por: Canadá, Estados Unidos, México, Perú, Chile, Japón, Vietnam, Malasia, Singapur, Brunei, Australia y Nueva Zelanda, representando el 35% del PIB mundial y el 11% de la población. El presente trabajo pretende presentar una visión objetiva del TPP, generando el espacio para la libre interpretación de sus beneficios o perjuicios. Para ello, se analiza el estado actual del TPP con sus principales indicadores, su desempeño en los últimos años y las relaciones diplomáticas y los flujos comerciales entre Colombia y los países miembros del mismo.

Abordajes teóricos en la comprensión de la influencia de los recursos económicos en la actividad física

Estudio cualitativo que analiza los abordajes teóricos utilizados por diferentes autores en la comprensión de la influencia de los recursos económicos en la actividad física desde los modelos de determinantes y determinación social.

Evolving definition of sociomuseology : proposal for reflection

Sociomuseology expresses a considerable amount of the effort made to suit museological facilities to the conditions of contemporary society. The process of opening up the museum, as well as its organic relation with the social context that infuses it with life, has resulted in the need to structure and clarify the relations, notions and concepts that may define this process. Sociomuseology is thus a scientific field of teaching, research and performance which emphasizes the articulation of museology, in particular, with the areas of knowledge covered by Human Sciences, Development Studies, Services Science, and Urban and Rural Planning. The multidisciplinary approach of Sociomuseology aims to strengthen the acknowledgement of museology as a resource for the sustainable development of Humanity, based on equal opportunities as well as social and economic inclusion. Sociomuseology bases its social intervention on mankind’s cultural and natural heritage, both tangible and intangible. What characterizes Sociomuseology is not so much the nature of its premises and its goals, as is the case with other areas of knowledge, but the interdisciplinary focus which makes it draw on perfectly consolidated areas of knowledge and relate them with Museology itself.

Foraging Habitat and Chick Diets of Roseate Tern, Sterna dougallii, Breeding on Country Island, Nova Scotia

Breeding seabirds are threatened by human activities that affect nesting and foraging habitat. In Canada, one of the seabirds most at risk of extirpation is the Roseate Tern, Sterna dougallii. Although critical nesting habitat has been identified for the Roseate Tern in Canada, its foraging locations and the diet of its chicks are unknown. Therefore, our goal was to determine the foraging locations and diet of chicks of Roseate Tern breeding on Country Island, Nova Scotia, which is one of Canada's two main breeding colonies. In 2003 and 2004, we radio-tracked the Roseate Tern by plane to locate foraging areas and conducted feeding watches to determine the diet of chicks. Roseate Tern foraged approximately 7 km from the breeding colony over shallow water < 5 m deep. In both years, sand lance, Ammodytes spp., was the most common prey item delivered to chicks, followed by hake, Urophycis spp. Our results are consistent with previous work at colonies in the northeastern United States, suggesting that throughout its range, this species may be restricted in both habitat use and prey selection. The reliance on a specific habitat type and narrow range of prey species makes the Roseate Tern generally susceptible to habitat perturbations and reductions in the availability of prey.

Predator Exclosures Enhance Reproductive Success but Increase Adult Mortality of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus)

Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) are listed as endangered throughout Canada and the United States Great Lakes region. Most attempts to increase their numbers have focused on enhancing reproductive success. Using 22 years of data collected by Parks Canada in Prince Edward Island National Park of Canada, we examined whether predator exclosures installed around Piping Plover nests increased nest success and hatching and fledging success when compared to nests without exclosures. Nests with exclosures were significantly more likely to hatch at least one egg than nests without exclosures, and they hatched a significantly greater number of young. The greater reproductive success observed in exclosed nests is likely due to the increased protection from predators that the exclosures conferred; significantly fewer exclosed nests were depredated than nonexclosed nests. However, significantly more exclosed than nonexclosed nests were abandoned by adults, and they had significantly greater adult mortality. Whether benefits of increased reproductive success from exclosures outweigh costs of increased abandonment and adult mortality remains unknown, but must be considered.

Movements and Habitat Use by Temperate-Nesting Canada Geese During the Postbreeding Period in Southern Québec

Individual behavior that reduces vulnerability to predation can affect population dynamics of animals. Temperate-nesting Canada Geese (Branta canadensis maxima) have increased steadily throughout the Atlantic flyway and have become a nuisance in some parts of their range. The objective of our study was to describe movements and habitat use during the postbreeding period of Canada Geese recently established in southern Québec. More specifically, we wanted to determine whether geese were using areas where hunting was allowed to assess the potential of harvest to control the number of geese. We tracked a sample of geese fitted with radio or conventional alphanumeric collars throughout the fall in three zones characterized by different habitats and hunting pressure. Before the hunting season, geese left the breeding area where hunting was allowed to reach suburban areas where firearm discharge was prohibited or hunters’ numbers were low. These postbreeding movements occurred when juveniles were approximately three months old. We observed few local movements among zones once migrant geese from northern breeding populations reached the study area. Radio-collared geese used mainly natural habitats (75.4 ± 2.6%), followed by urban (14.4 ± 2.7%), and agricultural habitats (10.3 ± 0.8%). They were located 73.8 ± 6.2% of the time in areas where hunting was prohibited. Geese that attended their juveniles during brood rearing were more prone to use areas where firearm discharge was restricted than geese that had abandoned or lost their brood. This study shows that under the prevailing regulations, the potential of hunting to manage the increasing breeding population of Canada Geese in southern Québec is limited.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.