Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Simulation of crop yields using ERA-40: Limits to skill and nonstationarity in weather-yield relationships

Reanalysis data provide an excellent test bed for impacts prediction systems. because they represent an upper limit on the skill of climate models. Indian groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) yields have been simulated using the General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40). The ability of ERA-40 to represent the Indian summer monsoon has been examined. The ability of GLAM. when driven with daily ERA-40 data, to model both observed yields and observed relationships between subseasonal weather and yield has been assessed. Mean yields "were simulated well across much of India. Correlations between observed and modeled yields, where these are significant. are comparable to correlations between observed yields and ERA-40 rainfall. Uncertainties due to the input planting window, crop duration, and weather data have been examined. A reduction in the root-mean-square error of simulated yields was achieved by applying bias correction techniques to the precipitation. The stability of the relationship between weather and yield over time has been examined. Weather-yield correlations vary on decadal time scales. and this has direct implications for the accuracy of yield simulations. Analysis of the skewness of both detrended yields and precipitation suggest that nonclimatic factors are partly responsible for this nonstationarity. Evidence from other studies, including data on cereal and pulse yields, indicates that this result is not particular to groundnut yield. The detection and modeling of nonstationary weather-yield relationships emerges from this study as an important part of the process of understanding and predicting the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Taxonomical vs. functional responses of bee communities to fire in two contrasting climatic regions

Valuable insights into mechanisms of community responses to environmental change can be gained by analysing in tandem the variation in functional and taxonomic composition along environmental gradients. We assess the changes in species and functional trait composition (i.e. dominant traits and functional diversity) of diverse bee communities in contrasting fire-driven systems in two climatic regions: Mediterranean (scrub habitats in Israel) and temperate (chestnut forests in southern Switzerland). In both climatic regions, there were shifts in species diversity and composition related to post-fire age. In the temperate region, functional composition responded markedly to fire; however, in the Mediterranean, the taxonomic response to fire was not matched by functional replacement. These results suggest that greater functional stability to fire in the Mediterranean is achieved by replacement of functionally similar species (i.e. functional redundancy) which dominate under different environmental conditions in the heterogeneous landscapes of the region. In contrast, the greater functional response in the temperate region was attributed to a more rapid post-fire vegetation recovery and shorter time-window when favourable habitat was available relative to the Mediterranean. Bee traits can be used to predict the functional responses of bee communities to environmental changes in habitats of conservation importance in different regions with distinct disturbance regimes. However, predictions cannot be generalized from one climatic region to another where distinct habitat configurations occur.

Bayesian decision procedures for dose-escalation based on evidence of undesirable events and therapeutic benefit.

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on bivariate observations of undesirable events and signs of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches taking into account only the undesirable outcomes. Logistic regression models are used to model the two responses, which are both assumed to take a binary form. A prior distribution for the unknown model parameters is suggested and an optional safety constraint can be included. Gain functions to be maximized are formulated in terms of accurate estimation of the limits of a therapeutic window or optimal treatment of the next cohort of subjects, although the approach could be applied to achieve any of a wide variety of objectives. The designs introduced are illustrated through simulation and retrospective implementation to a completed dose-escalation study. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cats about town: is predation by free-ranging pet cats Felis catus likely to affect urban bird populations?

Even though they are fed daily by their owners, free-ranging pet cats Felis catus may kill wild birds and, given their high densities (typically > 200 cats/km(2)), it has been postulated that cat predation could be a significant negative factor affecting the dynamics of urban bird populations. In this study, we: (1) used questionnaire surveys in 10 sites within the city of Bristol, UK, to estimate cat density; (2) estimated the number of birds killed annually in five sites by asking cat owners to record prey animals returned home; and then (3) compared the number of birds killed with breeding density and productivity to estimate the potential impact of cat predation. In addition, we (4) compared the condition of those birds killed by cats versus those killed in collisions, e.g. window strikes. Mean (+/- sd) cat density was 348 +/- 86 cats/km(2) (n = 10 sites); considering the eight species most commonly taken by cats, the mean ratios of adult birds/cats and juvenile birds/cats across the five sites were 1.17 +/- 0.23 and 3.07 +/- 0.74, respectively. Approximately 60% of the cats studied for up to 1 year at each site never returned any prey home; despite this, the estimated number of birds killed was large relative to their breeding density and productivity in many sites. Across species, cat-killed birds were in significantly poorer condition than those killed following collisions; this is consistent with the notion that cat predation represents a compensatory rather than additive form of mortality. Interpretation of these results is, however, complicated by patterns of body mass regulation in passerines. The predation rates estimated in this study would suggest that cats were likely to have been a major cause of mortality for some species of birds. The effect of cat predation in urban landscapes therefore warrants further investigation. The potential limitations of the current study are discussed, along with suggestions for resolving them.

Changes in the flavonoid and phenolic acid contents and antioxidant activity of red leaf lettuce (Lollo Rosso) due to cultivation under plastic films varying in ultraviolet transparency

Red leaf lettuce (Lollo Rosso) was grown under three types of plastic films that varied in transparency to UV radiation (designated as UV block, UV low, and UV window). Flavonoid composition was determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), total phenolics by the Folin-Ciocalteu assay, and antioxiclant capacity by the oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assay. Exposure to increased levels of UV radiation during cultivation caused the leaves to redden and increased concentrations of total phenols and the main flavonoids, quercetin and cyanidin glycosides, as well as luteolin conjugates and phenolic acids. The total phenol content increased from 1.6 mg of gallic acid equivalents (GAE)/g of fresh weight (FW) for lettuce grown under UV block film to 2.9 and 3.5 mg of GAE/g of FW for lettuce grown under the UV low and UV window films. The antioxiclant activity was also higher in lettuce exposed to higher levels of UV radiation with ORAC values of 25.4 and 55.1 mu mol of Trolox equivalents/g of FW for lettuce grown under the UV block and UV window films, respectively. The content of phenolic acids, quantified as caffeic acid, was also different, ranging from 6.2 to 11.1 mu mol/g of FW for lettuce cultivated under the lowest and highest UV exposure plastic films, respectively. Higher concentrations of the flavonoid glycosides were observed with increased exposure to UV radiation, as demonstrated by the concentrations of aglycones after hydrolysis, which were cyanidin (ranging from 165 to 793 mu g/g), quercetin (ranging from 196 to 880,mu g/g), and luteolin (ranging from 19 to 152 mu g/g). The results demonstrate the potential of the use of UV-transparent plastic as a means of increasing beneficial flavonoid content of red leaf lettuce when the crop is grown in polytunnels.

Changes in the flavonoid and phenolic acid contents and antioxidant activity of red leaf lettuce (Lollo Rosso) due to cultivation under plastic films varying in ultraviolet transparency

Red leaf lettuce (Lollo Rosso) was grown under three types of plastic films that varied in transparency to UV radiation (designated as UV block, UV low, and UV window). Flavonoid composition was determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), total phenolics by the Folin-Ciocalteu assay, and antioxiclant capacity by the oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assay. Exposure to increased levels of UV radiation during cultivation caused the leaves to redden and increased concentrations of total phenols and the main flavonoids, quercetin and cyanidin glycosides, as well as luteolin conjugates and phenolic acids. The total phenol content increased from 1.6 mg of gallic acid equivalents (GAE)/g of fresh weight (FW) for lettuce grown under UV block film to 2.9 and 3.5 mg of GAE/g of FW for lettuce grown under the UV low and UV window films. The antioxiclant activity was also higher in lettuce exposed to higher levels of UV radiation with ORAC values of 25.4 and 55.1 mu mol of Trolox equivalents/g of FW for lettuce grown under the UV block and UV window films, respectively. The content of phenolic acids, quantified as caffeic acid, was also different, ranging from 6.2 to 11.1 mu mol/g of FW for lettuce cultivated under the lowest and highest UV exposure plastic films, respectively. Higher concentrations of the flavonoid glycosides were observed with increased exposure to UV radiation, as demonstrated by the concentrations of aglycones after hydrolysis, which were cyanidin (ranging from 165 to 793 mu g/g), quercetin (ranging from 196 to 880,mu g/g), and luteolin (ranging from 19 to 152 mu g/g). The results demonstrate the potential of the use of UV-transparent plastic as a means of increasing beneficial flavonoid content of red leaf lettuce when the crop is grown in polytunnels.

Pressure-dependent product distribution of citral hydrogenation over micelle-hosted Pd and Ru nanoparticles in supercritical carbon dioxide

In situ synthesis and testing of Ru and Pd nanoparticles as catalysts in the presence of ammonium perfluorohydrocarbo-carboxylate surfactant in supercritical carbon dioxide were carried out in a stainless steel batch reactor at 40 degrees C over a pressure range of 80-150 bar CO2/H-2. Direct Visualization of the formation of a supercritical phase at above 80 bar, followed by the formation of homogeneous microemulsions containing dispersed Ru nanoparticles and Pd nanoparticles in scCO(2) at above 95-100 bar, were conducted through a sapphire window reactor using a W-0 (molar water to surfactant ratio) of 30. The synthesised RU and Pd nanoparticles showed interesting product distributions in the selective hydrogenation of organic molecules, depending critically oil the density and polarity of the fluid (which ill turn depends on the pressure applied). Thus, selective hydrogenation of the citral molecule, which contains three reducible groups (aldehydes and double bonds at the 23 and 6,7 positions), is feasible Lis a chemical probe. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular guided catalytic hydrogenation by micelle-hosted Pd nanoparticle in supercritical CO2

Homogeneous dispersion of microemulsion containing palladium nanoparticles in scCO(2) is, for the first time, observed via sapphire window reactor and these particles show an unusual reluctance for double bond hydrogenation of citral aldehyde at hydrophobic end rather than hydrophilic end (high regioselectivity) owing to the unique micelle environment in supercritical carbon dioxide that guide a head-on attack of the molecule.

Micelle-hosted palladium nanoparticles catalyze citral molecule hydrogenation in supercritical carbon dioxide

A new approach of employing metal particles in micelles for the hydrogenation of organic molecules in the presence of fluorinated surfactant and water in supercritical carbon dioxide has very recently been introduced. This is allegedly to deliver many advantages for carrying out catalysis including the use of supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO(2)) as a greener solvent. Following this preliminary account, the present work aims to provide direct visual evidence on the formation of metal microemulsions and to investigate whether metal located in the soft micellar assemblies could affect reaction selectivity. Synthesis of Pd nanoparticles in perfluorohydrocarboxylate anionic micelles in scCO(2) is therefore carried out in a stainless steel batch reactor at 40 degreesC and in a 150 bar CO2/H-2 mixture. Homogeneous dispersion of the microemulsion containing Pd nanoparticles in scCO(2) is observed through a sapphire window reactor at W-0 ratios (molar water-to-surfactant ratios) ranging from 2 to 30. It is also evidenced that the use of micelle assemblies as new metal catalyst nanocarriers could indeed exert a great influence on product selectivity. The hydrogenation of a citral molecule that contains three reducible groups (aldehyde, double bonds at the 2,3-position and the 6,7-position) is studied. An unusually high selectivity toward citronellal (a high regioselectivity toward the reduction of the 2,3-unsaturation) is observed in supercritical carbon dioxide. On the other hand, when the catalysis is carried out in the conventional liquid or vapor phase over the same reaction time, total hydrogenation of the two double bonds is achieved. It is thought that the high kinetic reluctance for double bond hydrogenation of the citral molecule at the hydrophobic end (the 6,7-position) is due to the unique micelle environment that is in close proximity to the metal surface in supercritical carbon dioxide that guides a head-on attack of the molecule toward the core metal particle.

Comparative characterisation by atomic force microscopy and ellipsometry of soft and solid thin films

Ellipsometry and atomic force microscopy (AFM) were used to study the film thickness and the surface roughness of both 'soft' and solid thin films. 'Soft' polymer thin films of polystyrene and poly(styrene-ethylene/butylene-styrene) block copolymer were prepared by spin-coating onto planar silicon wafers. Ellipsometric parameters were fitted by the Cauchy approach using a two-layer model with planar boundaries between the layers. The smooth surfaces of the prepared polymer films were confirmed by AFM. There is good agreement between AFM and ellipsometry in the 80-130 nm thickness range. Semiconductor surfaces (Si) obtained by anisotropic chemical etching were investigated as an example of a randomly rough surface. To define roughness parameters by ellipsometry, the top rough layers were treated as thin films according to the Bruggeman effective medium approximation (BEMA). Surface roughness values measured by AFM and ellipsometry show the same tendency of increasing roughness with increased etching time, although AFM results depend on the used window size. The combined use of both methods appears to offer the most comprehensive route to quantitative surface roughness characterisation of solid films. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Verification of design calculations of a wind catcher/tower natural ventilation system with performance testing in real building

A wind catcher/tower natural ventilation system was installed in a seminar room in the building of the School of Construction Management and Engineering, the University of Reading in the UK . Performance was analysed by means of ventilation tracer gas measurements, indoor climate measurements (temperature, humidity, CO2) and occupant surveys. In addition, the potential of simple design tools was evaluated by comparing observed ventilation results with those predicted by an explicit ventilation model and the AIDA implicit ventilation model. To support this analysis, external climate parameters (wind speed and direction, solar radiation, external temperature and humidity) were also monitored. The results showed the chosen ventilation design provided a substantially greater ventilation rate than an equivalent area of openable window. Also air quality parameters stayed within accepted norms while occupants expressed general satisfaction with the system and with comfort conditions. Night cooling was maximised by using the system in combination with openable windows. Comparisons of calculations with ventilation rate measurements showed that while AIDA gave reasonably correlated results with the monitored performance results, the widely used industry explicit model was found to over estimate the monitored ventilation rate.

The temporal impulse response underlying saccadic decisions

Models of perceptual decision making often assume that sensory evidence is accumulated over time in favor of the various possible decisions, until the evidence in favor of one of them outweighs the evidence for the others. Saccadic eye movements are among the most frequent perceptual decisions that the human brain performs. We used stochastic visual stimuli to identify the temporal impulse response underlying saccadic eye movement decisions. Observers performed a contrast search task, with temporal variability in the visual signals. In experiment 1, we derived the temporal filter observers used to integrate the visual information. The integration window was restricted to the first similar to 100 ms after display onset. In experiment 2, we showed that observers cannot perform the task if there is no useful information to distinguish the target from the distractor within this time epoch. We conclude that (1) observers did not integrate sensory evidence up to a criterion level, (2) observers did not integrate visual information up to the start of the saccadic dead time, and (3) variability in saccade latency does not correspond to variability in the visual integration period. Instead, our results support a temporal filter model of saccadic decision making. The temporal impulse response identified by our methods corresponds well with estimates of integration times of V1 output neurons.

A preliminary investigation of the running digit span as a test of working memory

The objective of this study was to compare performance on different versions of the running span task, and to examine the relationship between task performance and tests of episodic memory and executive function. We found that the average capacity of the running span was approximately 4 digits, and at long sequence lengths, performance was no longer affected by varying the running span window. Both episodic and executive function measures correlated with short and long running spans. suggesting that a simple dissociation between immediate memory and executive processes in short and long running digit span tasks may not be warranted.

How the brain blinks: towards a neurocognitive model of the attentional blink

When people monitor a visual stream of rapidly presented stimuli for two targets (T1 and T2), they often miss T2 if it falls into a time window of about half a second after T1 onset-the attentional blink (AB). We provide an overview of recent neuroscientific studies devoted to analyze the neural processes underlying the AB and their temporal dynamics. The available evidence points to an attentional network involving temporal, right-parietal and frontal cortex, and suggests that the components of this neural network interact by means of synchronization and stimulus-induced desynchronization in the beta frequency range. We set up a neurocognitive scenario describing how the AB might emerge and why it depends on the presence of masks and the other event(s) the targets are embedded in. The scenario supports the idea that the AB arises from "biased competition", with the top-down bias being generated by parietal-frontal interactions and the competition taking place between stimulus codes in temporal cortex.