The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN`s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.

Pharmacogenetics of Warfarin: Development of a Dosing Algorithm for Brazilian Patients

A dosing algorithm including genetic (VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genotypes) and nongenetic factors (age, weight, therapeutic indication, and cotreatment with amiodarone or simvastatin) explained 51% of the variance in stable weekly warfarin doses in 390 patients attending an anticoagulant clinic in a Brazilian public hospital. The VKORC1 3673G>A genotype was the most important predictor of warfarin dose, with a partial R(2) value of 23.9%. Replacing the VKORC1 3673G>A genotype with VKORC1 diplotype did not increase the algorithm`s predictive power. We suggest that three other single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (5808T>G, 6853G>C, and 9041G>A) that are in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with 3673G>A would be equally good predictors of the warfarin dose requirement. The algorithm`s predictive power was similar across the self-identified ""race/color"" subsets. ""Race/color"" was not associated with stable warfarin dose in the multiple regression model, although the required warfarin dose was significantly lower (P = 0.006) in white (29 +/- 13 mg/week, n = 196) than in black patients (35 +/- 15 mg/week, n = 76).

Signal Processing and patternrecognition algorithm for monitoringParkinson’s disease.

This masters thesis describes the development of signal processing and patternrecognition in monitoring Parkison’s disease. It involves the development of a signalprocess algorithm and passing it into a pattern recogniton algorithm also. Thesealgorithms are used to determine , predict and make a conclusion on the study ofparkison’s disease. We get to understand the nature of how the parkinson’s disease isin humans.

Solving the Vehicle Routing Problem with Genetic ALgorithm and Simulated Annealing

This Thesis Work will concentrate on a very interesting problem, the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP). In this problem, customers or cities have to be visited and packages have to be transported to each of them, starting from a basis point on the map. The goal is to solve the transportation problem, to be able to deliver the packages-on time for the customers,-enough package for each Customer,-using the available resources- and – of course - to be so effective as it is possible.Although this problem seems to be very easy to solve with a small number of cities or customers, it is not. In this problem the algorithm have to face with several constraints, for example opening hours, package delivery times, truck capacities, etc. This makes this problem a so called Multi Constraint Optimization Problem (MCOP). What’s more, this problem is intractable with current amount of computational power which is available for most of us. As the number of customers grow, the calculations to be done grows exponential fast, because all constraints have to be solved for each customers and it should not be forgotten that the goal is to find a solution, what is best enough, before the time for the calculation is up. This problem is introduced in the first chapter: form its basics, the Traveling Salesman Problem, using some theoretical and mathematical background it is shown, why is it so hard to optimize this problem, and although it is so hard, and there is no best algorithm known for huge number of customers, why is it a worth to deal with it. Just think about a huge transportation company with ten thousands of trucks, millions of customers: how much money could be saved if we would know the optimal path for all our packages.Although there is no best algorithm is known for this kind of optimization problems, we are trying to give an acceptable solution for it in the second and third chapter, where two algorithms are described: the Genetic Algorithm and the Simulated Annealing. Both of them are based on obtaining the processes of nature and material science. These algorithms will hardly ever be able to find the best solution for the problem, but they are able to give a very good solution in special cases within acceptable calculation time.In these chapters (2nd and 3rd) the Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing is described in details, from their basis in the “real world” through their terminology and finally the basic implementation of them. The work will put a stress on the limits of these algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages, and also the comparison of them to each other.Finally, after all of these theories are shown, a simulation will be executed on an artificial environment of the VRP, with both Simulated Annealing and Genetic Algorithm. They will both solve the same problem in the same environment and are going to be compared to each other. The environment and the implementation are also described here, so as the test results obtained.Finally the possible improvements of these algorithms are discussed, and the work will try to answer the “big” question, “Which algorithm is better?”, if this question even exists.

A Genetic Algorithm for Solar Boat

Genetic algorithm has been widely used in different areas of optimization problems. Ithas been combined with renewable energy domain, photovoltaic system, in this thesis.To participate and win the solar boat race, a control program is needed and C++ hasbeen chosen for programming. To implement the program, the mathematic model hasbeen built. Besides, the approaches to calculate the boundaries related to conditionhave been explained. Afterward, the processing of the prediction and real time controlfunction are offered. The program has been simulated and the results proved thatgenetic algorithm is helpful to get the good results but it does not improve the resultstoo much since the particularity of the solar driven boat project such as the limitationof energy production

Branch and Bound Algorithm for Multiprocessor Scheduling

The multiprocessor task graph scheduling problem has been extensively studied asacademic optimization problem which occurs in optimizing the execution time of parallelalgorithm with parallel computer. The problem is already being known as one of the NPhardproblems. There are many good approaches made with many optimizing algorithmto find out the optimum solution for this problem with less computational time. One ofthem is branch and bound algorithm.In this paper, we propose a branch and bound algorithm for the multiprocessor schedulingproblem. We investigate the algorithm by comparing two different lower bounds withtheir computational costs and the size of the pruned tree.Several experiments are made with small set of problems and results are compared indifferent sections.

University Scheduling using Genetic Algorithm

The automated timetabling and scheduling is one of the hardest problem areas. This isbecause of constraints and satisfying those constraints to get the feasible and optimizedschedule, and it is already proved as an NP Complete (1) [1]. The basic idea behind this studyis to investigate the performance of Genetic Algorithm on general scheduling problem underpredefined constraints and check the validity of results, and then having comparative analysiswith other available approaches like Tabu search, simulated annealing, direct and indirectheuristics [2] and expert system. It is observed that Genetic Algorithm is good solutiontechnique for solving such problems and later analysis will prove this argument. The programis written in C++ and analysis is done by using variation in various parameters.

University Timetabling using Genetic Algorithm

The field of automated timetabling and scheduling meeting all the requirementsthat we call constraints is always difficult task and already proved as NPComplete. The idea behind my research is to implement Genetic Algorithm ongeneral scheduling problem under predefined constraints and check the validityof results, and then I will explain the possible usage of other approaches likeexpert systems, direct heuristics, network flows, simulated annealing and someother approaches. It is observed that Genetic Algorithm is good solutiontechnique for solving such problems. The program written in C++ and analysisis done with using various tools explained in details later.

Cloud computing - Moving to the cloud

Cloud computing innebär användning av datorresurser som är tillgängliga via ett nätverk, oftast Internet och är ett område som har vuxit fram i snabb takt under de senaste åren. Allt fler företag migrerar hela eller delar av sin verksamhet till molnet. Sogeti i Borlänge har behov av att migrera sina utvecklingsmiljöer till en molntjänst då drift och underhåll av dessa är kostsamma och tidsödande. Som Microsoftpartners vill Sogeti använda Microsoft tjänst för cloud computing, Windows Azure, för detta syfte. Migration till molnet är ett nytt område för Sogeti och de har inga beskrivningar för hur en sådan process går till. Vårt uppdrag var att utveckla ett tillvägagångssätt för migration av en IT-lösning till molnet. En del av uppdraget blev då att kartlägga cloud computing, dess beståndsdelar samt vilka för- och nackdelar som finns, vilket har gjort att vi har fått grundläggande kunskap i ämnet. För att utveckla ett tillvägagångssätt för migration har vi utfört flera migrationer av virtuella maskiner till Windows Azure och utifrån dessa migrationer, litteraturstudier och intervjuer dragit slutsatser som mynnat ut i ett generellt tillvägagångssätt för migration till molnet. Resultatet har visat att det är svårt att göra en generell men samtidigt detaljerad beskrivning över ett tillvägagångssätt för migration, då scenariot ser olika ut beroende på vad som ska migreras och vilken typ av molntjänst som används. Vi har dock utifrån våra erfarenheter från våra migrationer, tillsammans med litteraturstudier, dokumentstudier och intervjuer lyft vår kunskap till en generell nivå. Från denna kunskap har vi sammanställt ett generellt tillvägagångssätt med större fokus på de förberedande aktiviteter som en organisation bör genomföra innan migration. Våra studier har även resulterat i en fördjupad beskrivning av cloud computing. I vår studie har vi inte sett att någon tidigare har beskrivit kritiska framgångsfaktorer i samband med cloud computing. I vårt empiriska arbete har vi dock identifierat tre kritiska framgångsfaktorer för cloud computing och i och med detta täckt upp en del av kunskapsgapet där emellan.

Computational study of the step size parameter of the subgradient optimization method

The subgradient optimization method is a simple and flexible linear programming iterative algorithm. It is much simpler than Newton's method and can be applied to a wider variety of problems. It also converges when the objective function is non-differentiable. Since an efficient algorithm will not only produce a good solution but also take less computing time, we always prefer a simpler algorithm with high quality. In this study a series of step size parameters in the subgradient equation is studied. The performance is compared for a general piecewise function and a specific p-median problem. We examine how the quality of solution changes by setting five forms of step size parameter.

Ubiquitous computing in education : a SWOT analysis by students and teachers

Learning from anywhere anytime is a contemporary phenomenon in the field of education that is thought to be flexible, time and cost saving. The phenomenon is evident in the way computer technology mediates knowledge processes among learners. Computer technology is however, in some instances, faulted. There are studies that highlight drawbacks of computer technology use in learning. In this study we aimed at conducting a SWOT analysis on ubiquitous computing and computer-mediated social interaction and their affect on education. Students and teachers were interviewed on the mentioned concepts using focus group interviews. Our contribution in this study is, identifying what teachers and students perceive to be the strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of ubiquitous computing and computer-mediated social interaction in education. We also relate the findings with literature and present a common understanding on the SWOT of these concepts. Results show positive perceptions. Respondents revealed that ubiquitous computing and computer-mediated social interaction are important in their education due to advantages such as flexibility, efficiency in terms of cost and time, ability to acquire computer skills. Nevertheless disadvantages where also mentioned for example health effects, privacy and security issues, noise in the learning environment, to mention but a few. This paper gives suggestions on how to overcome threats mentioned.