Interrupting malaria transmission: quantifying the impact of interventions in regions of low to moderate transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission.

Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria and bed net ownership and use in Bhutan, 2013 : a country earmarked for malaria elimination

Background With dwindling malaria cases in Bhutan in recent years, the government of Bhutan has made plans for malaria elimination by 2016. This study aimed to determine coverage, use and ownership of LLINs, as well as the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at a single time-point, in four sub-districts of Bhutan. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in August 2013. Structured questionnaires were administered to a single respondent in each household (HH) in four sub-districts. Four members from 25 HH, randomly selected from each sub-district, were tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with LLIN use and maintenance. Results All blood samples from 380 participants tested negative for Plasmodium infections. A total of 1,223 HH (92.5% of total HH) were surveyed for LLIN coverage and use. Coverage of LLINs was 99.0% (1,203/1,223 HH). Factors associated with decreased odds of sleeping under a LLIN included: washing LLINs nine months compared to washing LLINs every six months; HH in the least poor compared to the most poor socio-economic quintile; a HH income of Nu 5,001-10,000 (US$1 = Nu 59.55), and Nu >10,000, compared to HH with income of

Real-time decision making by driverless city vehicles : a discrete event driven approach

This thesis addresses the topic of real-time decision making by driverless (autonomous) city vehicles, i.e. their ability to make appropriate driving decisions in non-simplified urban traffic conditions. After addressing the state of research, and explaining the research question, the thesis presents solutions for the subcomponents which are relevant for decision making with respect to information input (World Model), information output (Driving Maneuvers), and the real-time decision making process. TheWorld Model is a software component developed to fulfill the purpose of collecting information from perception and communication subsystems, maintaining an up-to-date view of the vehicle’s environment, and providing the required input information to the Real-Time Decision Making subsystem in a well-defined, and structured way. The real-time decision making process consists of two consecutive stages. While the first decision making stage uses a Petri net to model the safetycritical selection of feasible driving maneuvers, the second stage uses Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods to select the most appropriate driving maneuver, focusing on fulfilling objectives related to efficiency and comfort. The complex task of autonomous driving is subdivided into subtasks, called driving maneuvers, which represent the output (i.e. decision alternatives) of the real-time decision making process. Driving maneuvers are considered as implementations of closed-loop control algorithms, each capable of maneuvering the autonomous vehicle in a specific traffic situation. Experimental tests in both a 3D simulation and real-world experiments attest that the developed approach is suitable to deal with the complexity of real-world urban traffic situations.

Exploitation of the menshutkin reaction for the controlled assembly of halogen bonded architectures incorporating 1,2-diiodotetrafluorobenzene and 1,3,5-Triiodotrifluorobenzene

1,4-Diazabicyclo[2.2.2]octane (DABCO) forms well-defined co-crystals with 1,2-diiodotetrafluorobenzene (1,2-DITFB), [(1,2-DITFB)2DABCO], and 1,3,5-triiodotrifluorobenzene, [(1,3,5-TITFB)2DABCO]. Both systems exhibited lower-than-expected supramolecular connectivity, which inspired a search for polymorphs in alternative crystallization solvents. In dichloromethane solution, the Menshutkin reaction was found to occur, generating chloride anions and quaternary ammonium cations through the reaction between the solvent and DABCO. The controlled in situ production of chloride ions facilitated the crystallization of new halogen bonded networks, DABCO–CH2Cl[(1,2-DITFB)Cl] (zigzag X-bonded chains) and (DABCO–CH2Cl)3[(1,3,5-TITFB)2Cl3]·CHCl3 (2D pseudo-trigonal X-bonded nets displaying Borremean entanglement), propagating with charge-assisted C–I···Cl– halogen bonds. The method was found to be versatile, and substitution of DABCO with triethylamine (TEA) gave (TEA-CH2Cl)3[(1,2-DITFB)Cl3]·4(H2O) (mixed halogen bond hydrogen bond network with 2D supramolecular connectivity) and TEA-CH2Cl[(1,3,5-TITFB)Cl] (tightly packed planar trigonal nets). The co-crystals were typically produced in high yield and purity with relatively predictable supramolecular topology, particularly with respect to the connectivity of the iodobenzene molecules. The potential to use this synthetic methodology for crystal engineering of halogen bonded architectures is demonstrated and discussed.

Future perfect

"Future Perfect" is a solo artist exhibition featuring a 9 channel video installation, which is comprised of looped computer animation projections. In the first room, the big one, there are nine projections of looped computer animations. Many of these look like representations of gallery spaces containing sculptures, including rotating interpenetrating discs, bouncing coloured coffins, and jostling cardboard cubes (the cubes are blank, then covered in drawings, then covered in photographic imagery). In one video, a man and a woman walk towards one another but never get together. In the second room, an animated video on a flatscreen suggests an origin story. The subtitles tell how, in Russia, my great-grandfather made a joke about Stalin's child bride that cost him his life. That one isn’t a loop; it has a beginning, middle, and end. Lying on the floor, in front of the video, are two slightly crumpled mural prints of photographs of the ocean. There's also a clear Perspex cloud shape on a wall. Viewers will see themselves reflected in it, as if it were a distant hovering mirage. The first room of the exhibition, where objects are set in perpetual motion, is about departure. The second room registers some sense of arrival. The future perfect implies looking back on something that hasn't happened yet; future and past are conflated and the present is somehow deferred. The future perfect combines anticipation and reflection, and it relates to my interest in combining 3-D animation with other mediums like drawing, painting, and shot video. In my work, the virtual and actual coexist in tension, just like experience and expectation in the future perfect.

A model predictive approach for community battery energy storage system optimization

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for optimizing the operation of battery storage in a low voltage distribution network with a high penetration of PV generation. A predictive control solution is presented that uses wavelet neural networks to predict the load and PV generation at hourly intervals for twelve hours into the future. The load and generation forecast, and the previous twelve hours of load and generation history, is used to assemble load profile. A diurnal charging profile can be compactly represented by a vector of Fourier coefficients allowing a direct search optimization algorithm to be applied. The optimal profile is updated hourly allowing the state of charge profile to respond to changing forecasts in load.

Epidemiology and risk factors of oral cancer in South Africa

Head and neck cancers are some of the leading cancers in the coloured and black South African male population and the perception exists that the incidence rates are rising. Aims: To determine the standardised morbidity rates and some of the risk factors for oral cancer in South Africa. Methods: Using histologically verified data from the National Cancer Registry, the age standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and life-time risks (LR) of oral cancer in South Africa were calculated for 1988-1991.2. In an ongoing case control study (1995 +) among black patients in Johannesburg/Soweto, adjusted odds ratios for developing oral cancers in relation to tobacco and alcohol consumption were calculated. Results: Coloured males vs. females: ASIR 13.13 vs. 3.5 (/100,000/year), LR 1:65 vs. 1:244. Black males vs. females: ASIR 9.06 vs. 1.75, LR 1:86 and 1:455. White males vs. females: ASIR 8.06 vs. 3.18, LR 1:104 vs. 1:278. Asian males vs. females: ASIR 5.24 vs. 6.66, LR 1:161 vs. 1:125. The odds ratio for oral cancer in black males in relation to smoking was 7.0 (95% CI 3.0-14.6) and daily alcohol consumption 1.3 (95% CI 0.6-2.8). In black females the odds ratios in relation to smoking were 3.9 (95% CI 1.7 8.9) and daily alcohol consumption 1.7(95% CI 0.7-4.1). Conclusions: The risk factors for oral cancer in South Africa are multiple and gender discrepancies in ASIR and LR signal differences in exposure to carcinogens. It is unclear whether the incidence of oral cancers will rise in the future.

Characterization and Mapping of Patterned Ground in the Saginaw Lowlands, Michigan: Possible Evidence for Late-Wisconsin Permafrost

We identified, mapped, and characterized a widespread area (gt;1,020 km2) of patterned ground in the Saginaw Lowlands of Michigan, a wet, flat plain composed of waterlain tills, lacustrine deposits, or both. The polygonal patterned ground is interpreted as a possible relict permafrost feature, formed in the Late Wisconsin when this area was proximal to the Laurentide ice sheet. Cold-air drainage off the ice sheet might have pooled in the Saginaw Lowlands, which sloped toward the ice margin, possibly creating widespread but short-lived permafrost on this glacial lake plain. The majority of the polygons occur between the Glacial Lake Warren strandline (~14.8 cal. ka) and the shoreline of Glacial Lake Elkton (~14.3 cal. ka), providing a relative age bracket for the patterned ground. Most of the polygons formed in dense, wet, silt loam soils on flat-lying sites and take the form of reticulate nets with polygon long axes of 150 to 160 m and short axes of 60 to 90 m. Interpolygon swales, often shown as dark curvilinears on aerial photographs, are typically slightly lower than are the polygon centers they bound. Some portions of these interpolygon swales are infilled with gravel-free, sandy loam sediments. The subtle morphology and sedimentological characteristics of the patterned ground in the Saginaw Lowlands suggest that thermokarst erosion, rather than ice-wedge replacement, was the dominant geomorphic process associated with the degradation of the Late-Wisconsin permafrost in the study area and, therefore, was primarily responsible for the soil patterns seen there today.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high cholesterol in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to high cholesterol in adults aged 30 years and older in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Small community studies were used to derive the prevalence by population group. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for each population group. The total attributable burden for South Africa in 2000 was obtained by adding the burden attributed to high cholesterol for the four population groups. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa. Subjects Black African, coloured, white and Indian adults aged 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and ischaemic stroke. Results Overall, about 59% of IHD and 29% of ischaemic stroke burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to high cholesterol (≥ 3.8 mmol/l), with marked variation by population group. High cholesterol was estimated to have caused 24 144 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 22 404 - 25 286) or 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 4.3 - 4.9%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Since most cholesterol-related cardiovascular disease events occurred in middle or old age, the loss of life years comprised a smaller proportion of the total: 222 923 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 206 712 - 233 460) or 1.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 1.3 - 1.4%) in South Africa in 2000. Conclusions High cholesterol is an important cardiovascular risk factor in all population groups in South Africa.

Tobacco use in South Africans during 1998: The first demographic and health survey

Objective To determine smoking patterns in South Africa, and to identify groups requiring culturally appropriate smoking cessation programmes. Methods A random sample of 13 826 people (415 years), was interviewed to identify tobacco use patterns and respiratory symptoms. Peak expiratory flow rates were measured. Multinomial regression analyses identified sociodemographic factors related to tobacco use, and the latter’s association with respiratory conditions. Results In 1998, 24.6% adults (44.2% of males and 11.0% of females) smoked regularly. Coloured women had a higher rate (39%) than African women (5.4%). About 24% of the regular smokers had attempted to quit, with only 9.9% succeeding. African women (13.2%) used smokeless tobacco more frequently than others. Of the nonsmokers 28% and 19% were exposed to environmental tobacco smoke in their homes and workplaces, respectively. The regression analysis showed that the demographic characteristics of light smokers (1–14 tobacco equivalents per day) and heavy smokers (>=15 tobacco equivalents per day) differed. Light smoking occurred significantly more frequently in the poorest, least educated and urban people. The relative risk for light smoking was 18 in Coloured women compared with African women. Heavy smoking occurred most frequently in the highest educated group. A dose–response was observed between the amount smoked and the presence of respiratory diseases. Conclusions Smoking in South Africa is decreasing and should continue with the recently passed tobacco control legislation. Culturally appropriate tobacco cessation programmes for the identified target groups need to be developed.

Automatic UAV forced landing site detection using machine learning

The commercialization of aerial image processing is highly dependent on the platforms such as UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). However, the lack of an automated UAV forced landing site detection system has been identified as one of the main impediments to allow UAV flight over populated areas in civilian airspace. This article proposes a UAV forced landing site detection system that is based on machine learning approaches including the Gaussian Mixture Model and the Support Vector Machine. A range of learning parameters are analysed including the number of Guassian mixtures, support vector kernels including linear, radial basis function Kernel (RBF) and polynormial kernel (poly), and the order of RBF kernel and polynormial kernel. Moreover, a modified footprint operator is employed during feature extraction to better describe the geometric characteristics of the local area surrounding a pixel. The performance of the presented system is compared to a baseline UAV forced landing site detection system which uses edge features and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) region type classifier. Experiments conducted on aerial image datasets captured over typical urban environments reveal improved landing site detection can be achieved with an SVM classifier with an RBF kernel using a combination of colour and texture features. Compared to the baseline system, the proposed system provides significant improvement in term of the chance to detect a safe landing area, and the performance is more stable than the baseline in the presence of changes to the UAV altitude.

Reggae borderzones, reggae graveyards: Bob Marley fandom in Bali

The road from Bali’s international airport to the island’s most renowned tourist area, Kuta Beach, leads past a number of establishments claiming affiliation to reggae music and Rastafarianism in large, appropriately coloured billboards. A sign outside a tee shirt shop bears the words RASTA MANIA within a green, yellow and red border, and a stick figure caricaturing negritude, the logo of this clothing label. In the window display hangs a tee shirt, and upon it Bob Marley’s wizened face. His lips pinch a cone-shaped spliff, and he squints behind a veil of airbrushed smoke. A leanto sign on the sidewalk outside Apache Bar announce REGGAE BANDS NIGHTLY. This barn of coconut wood and thatch nestles behind Wendy’s Ice Cream Parlour and Chi Chi’s Mexican Bar. Its timber walls emulate a rustic, spaghetti Western aesthetic and are adorned with portraits of native Americans. In addition to the reggae bands, nightly, Apache bar unites young Japanese women with local ‘guides’.2

Is the sun too bright in Queensland? An approach to robust outdoor colour beacon detection

Using cameras onboard a robot for detecting a coloured stationary target outdoors is a difficult task. Apart from the complexity of separating the target from the background scenery over different ranges, there are also the inconsistencies with direct and reflected illumination from the sun,clouds, moving and stationary objects. They can vary both the illumination on the target and its colour as perceived by the camera. In this paper, we analyse the effect of environment conditions, range to target, camera settings and image processing on the reported colours of various targets. The analysis indicates the colour space and camera configuration that provide the most consistent colour values over varying environment conditions and ranges. This information is used to develop a detection system that provides range and bearing to detected targets. The system is evaluated over various lighting conditions from bright sunlight, shadows and overcast days and demonstrates robust performance. The accuracy of the system is compared against a laser beacon detector with preliminary results indicating it to be a valuable asset for long-range coloured target detection.

Improved Kalman filter initialisation using neurofuzzy estimation

It is traditional to initialise Kalman filters and extended Kalman filters with estimates of the states calculated directly from the observed (raw) noisy inputs, but unfortunately their performance is extremely sensitive to state initialisation accuracy: good initial state estimates ensure fast convergence whereas poor estimates may give rise to slow convergence or even filter divergence. Divergence is generally due to excessive observation noise and leads to error magnitudes that quickly become unbounded (R.J. Fitzgerald, 1971). When a filter diverges, it must be re initialised but because the observations are extremely poor, re initialised states will have poor estimates. The paper proposes that if neurofuzzy estimators produce more accurate state estimates than those calculated from the observed noisy inputs (using the known state model), then neurofuzzy estimates can be used to initialise the states of Kalman and extended Kalman filters. Filters whose states have been initialised with neurofuzzy estimates should give improved performance by way of faster convergence when the filter is initialised, and when a filter is re started after divergence

Difficulties in distinguishing coherent from fragmental kimberlite: A case study of the Muskox pipe (Northern Slave Province, Nunavut, Canada)

Kimberlite drill core from the Muskox pipe (Northern Slave Province, Nunavut, Canada) highlights the difficulties in distinguishing coherent from fragmental kimberlite and assessing the volcanological implications of the apparent gradational contact between the two facies. Using field log data, petrography, and several methods to quantify crystal and xenolith sizes and abundances, the pipe is divided into two main facies, dark-coloured massive kimberlite (DMK) and light-coloured fragmental kimberlite (LFK). DMK is massive and homogeneous, containing country-rock lithic clasts (~ 10%) and olivine macrocrysts (~ 15%) set in a dark, typically well crystallised, interstitial medium containing abundant microphenocrysts of olivine (~ 15%), opaques and locally monticellite, all of which are enclosed by mostly serpentine. In general, LFK is also massive and structureless, containing ~ 20% country-rock lithic clasts and ~ 12% olivine macrocrysts. These framework components are supported in a matrix of serpentinized olivine microphenocrysts (10%), microlites of clinopyroxene, and phlogopite, all of which are enclosed by serpentine. The contact between DMK and LFK facies is rarely sharp, and more commonly is gradational (from 5 cm to ~ 10 m). The contact divides the pipe roughly in half and is sub-vertical with an irregular shape, locally placing DMK facies both above and below the fragmental rocks. Most features of DMK are consistent with a fragmental origin, particularly the crystal- and xenolith-rich nature (~ 55-65%), but there are some similarities with rocks described as coherent kimberlite in the literature. We discuss possible origins of gradational contacts and consider the significance for understanding the origin of the DMK facies, with an emphasis on the complications of alteration overprinting of primary textures.