An anonymous reputation mechanism for cloud computing networks using volunteer resources

One of the major problems when using non-dedicated volunteer resources in adistributed network is the high volatility of these hosts since they can go offlineor become unavailable at any time without control. Furthermore, the use ofvolunteer resources implies some security issues due to the fact that they aregenerally anonymous entities which we know nothing about. So, how to trustin someone we do not know?.Over the last years an important number of reputation-based trust solutionshave been designed to evaluate the participants' behavior in a system.However, most of these solutions are addressed to P2P and ad-hoc mobilenetworks that may not fit well with other kinds of distributed systems thatcould take advantage of volunteer resources as recent cloud computinginfrastructures.In this paper we propose a first approach to design an anonymous reputationmechanism for CoDeS [1], a middleware for building fogs where deployingservices using volunteer resources. The participants are reputation clients(RC), a reputation authority (RA) and a certification authority (CA). Users needa valid public key certificate from the CA to register to the RA and obtain thedata needed to participate into the system, as now an opaque identifier thatwe call here pseudonym and an initial reputation value that users provide toother users when interacting together. The mechanism prevents not only themanipulation of the provided reputation values but also any disclosure of theusers' identities to any other users or authorities so the anonymity isguaranteed.

Vitellogenin Underwent Subfunctionalization to Acquire Caste and Behavioral Specific Expression in the Harvester Ant Pogonomyrmex barbatus.

The reproductive ground plan hypothesis (RGPH) proposes that the physiological pathways regulating reproduction were co-opted to regulate worker division of labor. Support for this hypothesis in honeybees is provided by studies demonstrating that the reproductive potential of workers, assessed by the levels of vitellogenin (Vg), is linked to task performance. Interestingly, contrary to honeybees that have a single Vg ortholog and potentially fertile nurses, the genome of the harvester ant Pogonomyrmex barbatus harbors two Vg genes (Pb_Vg1 and Pb_Vg2) and nurses produce infertile trophic eggs. P. barbatus, thus, provides a unique model to investigate whether Vg duplication in ants was followed by subfunctionalization to acquire reproductive and non-reproductive functions and whether Vg reproductive function was co-opted to regulate behavior in sterile workers. To investigate these questions, we compared the expression patterns of P. barbatus Vg genes and analyzed the phylogenetic relationships and molecular evolution of Vg genes in ants. qRT-PCRs revealed that Pb_Vg1 is more highly expressed in queens compared to workers and in nurses compared to foragers. By contrast, the level of expression of Pb_Vg2 was higher in foragers than in nurses and queens. Phylogenetic analyses show that a first duplication of the ancestral Vg gene occurred after the divergence between the poneroid and formicoid clades and subsequent duplications occurred in the lineages leading to Solenopsis invicta, Linepithema humile and Acromyrmex echinatior. The initial duplication resulted in two Vg gene subfamilies preferentially expressed in queens and nurses (subfamily A) or in foraging workers (subfamily B). Finally, molecular evolution analyses show that the subfamily A experienced positive selection, while the subfamily B showed overall relaxation of purifying selection. Our results suggest that in P. barbatus the Vg gene underwent subfunctionalization after duplication to acquire caste- and behavior- specific expression associated with reproductive and non-reproductive functions, supporting the validity of the RGPH in ants.

Knowledge management for systems biology a general and visually driven framework applied to translational medicine

Background: To enhance our understanding of complex biological systems like diseases we need to put all of the available data into context and use this to detect relations, pattern and rules which allow predictive hypotheses to be defined. Life science has become a data rich science with information about the behaviour of millions of entities like genes, chemical compounds, diseases, cell types and organs, which are organised in many different databases and/or spread throughout the literature. Existing knowledge such as genotype - phenotype relations or signal transduction pathways must be semantically integrated and dynamically organised into structured networks that are connected with clinical and experimental data. Different approaches to this challenge exist but so far none has proven entirely satisfactory. Results: To address this challenge we previously developed a generic knowledge management framework, BioXM™, which allows the dynamic, graphic generation of domain specific knowledge representation models based on specific objects and their relations supporting annotations and ontologies. Here we demonstrate the utility of BioXM for knowledge management in systems biology as part of the EU FP6 BioBridge project on translational approaches to chronic diseases. From clinical and experimental data, text-mining results and public databases we generate a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) knowledge base and demonstrate its use by mining specific molecular networks together with integrated clinical and experimental data. Conclusions: We generate the first semantically integrated COPD specific public knowledge base and find that for the integration of clinical and experimental data with pre-existing knowledge the configuration based set-up enabled by BioXM reduced implementation time and effort for the knowledge base compared to similar systems implemented as classical software development projects. The knowledgebase enables the retrieval of sub-networks including protein-protein interaction, pathway, gene - disease and gene - compound data which are used for subsequent data analysis, modelling and simulation. Pre-structured queries and reports enhance usability; establishing their use in everyday clinical settings requires further simplification with a browser based interface which is currently under development.

Introduced ants in Galápagos (Floreana Island) : importance of competition, coexistence and agressive behaviors

Abstract Invasive species represent with fragmentation of habitat the most serious threats to biodiversity in the world. Galápagos Archipelago, as most oceanic islands, suffers a high rate of introduced animals and plants that affect equilibrium and biodiversity of this unique biota. Ants rank among the most devastating invaders. Their social organization confer them a high ability to adapt and to spread in new environments forming rapidly populous communities. We studied the ant community of Floreana Island composed mainly of introduced species (at least 1 S). Introduction events occurred successively during last century. The last record is Monomorium destructor arrived in the eighties. Our aim is to investigate the modalities of interaction and coexistence of these introduced species. We highlighted the competition hierarchy of the coexisting species using attractive food baits. Two species behave as competitively dominant by monopolizing an important part of resources. They are M. destructor restricted to a small area and the fire ant Solenopsis geminata widely distributed on the island. Then we evaluated the relative importance of abiotic factors and interspecific competition in structuring the community. Ecological data were collected and presence and abundance of species were estimated using different methods in a wide range of habitats. Several species showed preferences either for arid or for humid areas. The little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata, awell-known devastating species when introduced, was exclusively found in moist habitat in and around the agricultural area situated in the upper and central part of thé island. It coexists with other species in several parts but in a restricted perimeter it excludes all other ants and worker's density on the ground is nearly 70 times higher than ant's density in similar habitats occupied by several species. But most opportunist tramp species establish everywhere without particular ecological requirement. Analyses of species co-occurrences at various levels didn't reveal any marked effect of competition in structuring ant's assemblages. We supposed that the lack ofcompetition-derived structure has to be attributed to the dynamic of the system. Indeed, across the successive census of 1996, 2003, 2004 and 2005, species distributions and abundances appeared to be highly variables. In particular harsh conditions occurring in dry season in certain parts seem to be limiting to S. geminatai. We suggest that huge variations in the local distribution of the dominant S. geminata disrupt the community organization. Finally we conducted artificial ant confrontations to evaluate to what extend an aggressive behavior at the worker level maybe linked to the ecological success of a species on the island. S. geminata was rather indifferent when confronted to a submissive species on food sources, suggesting that its competitive dominance is largely due to a numerical superiority. On the other hand M. destructor exhibits a strong agonistic behavior in similar confrontations. As soon as the presence of a competitor is detected, most workers were observed to abandon foraging and to take part in physical aggressions. Since it is still restricted nearby its introduction spot two decades after its arrival, we suggest that the energetic cost of such an aggressive behavior prevent it to spread on that island already highly colonized. Dominant invasive species such as the fire ants S. geminata and W. auropunctata have negative impacts on Galápagos fauna, disturbing the hatching of land tortoises and birds. But very little is known about the impact of other exotic ants. Indeed, impact on arthropods and generally on ground-dwelling organisms is very diffcult to evaluate. As a consequence of the dynamic character of Floreana I. ant community it is difficult to build models or to málce predictions on evolution of introduced ant fauna. But Camponotus macilentus, an abundant endemic species seems today to be little affected by introduced ant species thanks to its strong interference competition ability and its preference for arid and harsh environments. Résumé Les espèces envahissantes représentent, avec la fragmentation du paysage, la plus grande menace pour la biodiversité. L'archipel des Galápagos, comme la plupart des îles du Pacifique, compte un grand nombre d'espèces introduites qui menacent la biodiversité de ce milieu unique.. Les fourmis sont parmi les envahisseurs les plus dévastateurs. Leur organisation sociale leur permet de s'adapter et de se propager pour devenir rapidement abondantes. Nous avons étudié la communauté de fourmis sur l'île de Floreana principalement composée d'espèces introduites (au moins 15). Les introductions se sont succédées au cours du siècle précédent. La dernière espèce recensée est Monomorium destructor introduite dans les années 80. Notre objectif est de mettre à jour les modalités des interactions et de la coexistence de ces espèces introduites. Nous avons mis en évidence la hiérarchie de compétition des différentes espèces à l'aide d'appâts de nourriture. Deux espèces se comportent de façon dominante en monopolisant une part importante des ressources. Ce sont M. destructor, restreintes à un petit périmètre, et la fourmi de feu Solenopsis geminata, largement distribuée sur l'île. Nous avons évalué l'importance relative des facteurs abiotiques et de la compétition interspécifique dans la structuration des peuplements. Des données écologiques ont été collectées et la présence et l'abondance des espèces ont été estimées à l'aide de trois méthodes au sein d'une grande diversité d'habitats. Plusieurs espèces .montrent des préférences soit pour les milieux humides, soit pour les milieux arides. La petite fourmi de feu Wasmannia auropunctata, une espèce connue pour être dévastatrice dans ses sites d'introduction, est présente exclusivement dans les habitats humides dans et à proximité de la zone agricole située dans la partie centrale de l'île. Elle coexiste en plusieurs points avec d'autres espèces mais au sein d'un périmètre restreint elle exclut toute autre fourmi et atteint des densités record au sol presque 70 fois supérieures aux densités de fourmis observées sur les sites voisins occupés par plusieurs espèces. Mais la plupart des espèces vagabondes opportunistes s'établissent partout sans exigences écologiques particulières. Des analyses de cooccurrence d'espèces à plusieurs niveaux n'ont pas révélé de rôle marqué de la compétition dans la structuration des communautés. Nous supposons que l'absence d'une telle structure doit être attribuée à la dynamique du système. En effet, au cours des différents recensements de 1996-1997, 2003, 2004 et 2005, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces était très variable. En particulier, les conditions rudes qui règnent dans la zone aride durant la saison sèche semblent affecter particulièrement S. geminata. Nous suggérons que de fortes variations dans la distribution de l'espèce dominante perturbent l'orgaiùsation des communautés. Finalement nous avons effectué des confrontations artificielles pour évaluer dans quelle mesure un comportement agressif au niveau de l'ouvrière peut être lié au succès écologique d'une espèce sur l'île. S. geminata montre très peu de réaction face à une espèce subordonnée sur une même source de nourriture, ce qui laisse supposer que sa dominance est largement due à sa supériorité numérique. Par contre, dans des conditions similaires, M. destructor est fortement agressive. En présence d'un compétiteur, la plupart des ouvrières renoncent très vite à leur activité de fourragement pour agresser les individus de l'autre espèce. Puisque deux décennies après son introduction elle est toujours confinée à son point d'arrivée, nous supposons que le coût en énergie et en ouvrières de ce comportement très agressif est un obstacle à son expansion sur cette île déjà fortement colonisée. Les espèces envahissantes dominantes comme les fourmis de feu S. geminata et W. auropunctata sont connues pour leur impact négatif sur la faune des Galápagos, entre autre sur les jeunes des tortues terrestres et des oiseaux. Mais nous savons très peu de choses sur l'impact des autres espèces de fourmis introduites. En effet, l'impact sur les arthropodes, et plus généralement sur la faune du sol, est très difficile à évaluer. En raison du caractère dynamique de la communauté de fourmi de Floreana, il est difficile de construire des modèles et de faire des prédictions sur l'évolution des peuplements de fourmis introduites. Mais Camponotus macilentus, une espèce endémique abondante, semble aujourd'hui peu affectée par les espèces introduites grâce à ses capacités de compétition par interférence et sa préférence pour les milieux arides. Resumen Las, especies invasoras representan, junto con la fragmentación del paisaje, la mayor amenaza para la biodiversidad. El archipiélago de Galápagos, como la mayoría de las islas del Pacífico, cuenta con un gran número de especies introducidas que amenazan la biodiversidad de este lugar único. Las hormigas son uno de los invasores más devastadores. Su organización social les permite adaptarse y propagarse para ser rápidamente abundante. Estudiamos la comunidad de hormigas de la isla Floreana principalmente compuesta de especies introducidas (al menos 15). Las introducciones se sucedieron durante el siglo anterior. La última especie contabilizada es Monomorium destructor introducida en los años 80. Nuestro objetivo es poner al día las modalidades de las interacciones y de la coexistencia de estas especies introducidas. Pusimos de relieve la jerarquía de competencia de las distintas especies con ayuda de cebos de comida. Dos especies se implican de manera dominante monopolizando una parte importante de los recursos. Son M. destructor, limitado a un pequeño perímetro, y la hormiga de fuego Solenopsis geminata; ampliamente distribuida por la isla. Evaluamos la importancia relativa de los factores abióticos y de la competencia interespecífica en la estructuración de la communidad. Se recogieron algunos datos ecológicos y se consideraron la presencia y la abundancia de las especies con ayuda de tres métodos en una gran diversidad de hábitats. Varias especies muestran preferencias o por los medios húmedos, o por los medios áridos. La pequeña hormiga de fuego Wasmannia auropunctata, una especie conocida por ser devastadora en sus lugares de introducción, está presente exclusivamente en los hábitats húmedos y cerca de la zona agrícola situada en la parte central de la isla. Coexiste en varios puntos con otras especies pero en un perímetro limitado excluye a cualquier otra hormiga y alcanza densidades en el suelo casi 70 veces superiores a las densidades de hormigas observadas en los lugares vecinos ocupados por varias especies. Pero la mayoría de las especies vagabundas oportunistas se establecen por todas partes sin exigencias ecológicas particulares. Análisis de cooccurrencía de las especies a varios niveles no revelaron una grande importancía de la competencia en la estructuración de las comunidades. Suponemos que la ausencia de tal estructura Bebé ser por la dinámica del sistema. Efectivamente, durante los distintos censos de 1996-1997, 2003,.2004 y 2005, la distribución ? la abundancia de las especies eran muy variables. En particular, las condiciones drásticas que reinan en la zona árida durante la temporada seca parecen afectar especialmente a S. geminata. Sugerimos que fuertes variaciones en la distribución de la especie dominante perturben la organización de las comunidades. Finalmente efectuamos confrontaciones artificiales para evaluar hastá que punto un comportamiento agresivo a nivel de la obrera puede explicar el éxito ecológico de una especie en la isla. S. geminata muestra muy poca reacción ante una especie subordinada mientras comparten la misma comida, lo que deja suponer que su dominancia se debe a su superioridad numérica. Por el contrario, en condiciones similares, M. destructor es muy agresivo. En presencia de otra especie, la mayóría de las obreras renuncian muy rápidamente a alimentarse para atacar a los individuos de la otra especie. Puesto que dos décadas después de su introducción todavía se confina en su punto de llegada, suponemos que el coste en energía y en obreras de este comportamiento muy agresivo es un obstáculo a su extensión en esta isla ya muy colonizada. Las especiés invasoras dominantes como las hormigas de fuego S. geminata y W. auropunctata son conocidas por su impacto negativo en la fauna de Galápagos, entre otras cosas sobre los juveniles de las tortugas terrestres y pájaros. Pero sabemos muy poco sobre el impacto de las otras especies de hormigas introducidas. Efectivamente es muy difïcil de evaluar el impacto en los artrópodos, y más generalmente en la fauna del suelo. Debido al carácter dinámico de la comunidad de hormiga de Floreana, es diEcil construir modelos y hacer predicciones sobre la evolución de las poblaciones de hormigas introducidas. Pero Camponotus macilentus, una especie endémica abundante, parece poco afectadá hoy por las especies introducidas gracias a sus capacidades de competencia por interferencia y su preferencia por los medios áridos.

Investigating Gaze of Children with ASD in Naturalistic Settings.

BACKGROUND: Visual behavior is known to be atypical in Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). Monitor-based eye-tracking studies have measured several of these atypicalities in individuals with Autism. While atypical behaviors are known to be accentuated during natural interactions, few studies have been made on gaze behavior in natural interactions. In this study we focused on i) whether the findings done in laboratory settings are also visible in a naturalistic interaction; ii) whether new atypical elements appear when studying visual behavior across the whole field of view. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Ten children with ASD and ten typically developing children participated in a dyadic interaction with an experimenter administering items from the Early Social Communication Scale (ESCS). The children wore a novel head-mounted eye-tracker, measuring gaze direction and presence of faces across the child's field of view. The analysis of gaze episodes to faces revealed that children with ASD looked significantly less and for shorter lapses of time at the experimenter. The analysis of gaze patterns across the child's field of view revealed that children with ASD looked downwards and made more extensive use of their lateral field of view when exploring the environment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The data gathered in naturalistic settings confirm findings previously obtained only in monitor-based studies. Moreover, the study allowed to observe a generalized strategy of lateral gaze in children with ASD when they were looking at the objects in their environment.

A neuropsychological instrument measuring age-related cerebral decline in older drivers: development, reliability, and validity of MedDrive.

When facing age-related cerebral decline, older adults are unequally affected by cognitive impairment without us knowing why. To explore underlying mechanisms and find possible solutions to maintain life-space mobility, there is a need for a standardized behavioral test that relates to behaviors in natural environments. The aim of the project described in this paper was therefore to provide a free, reliable, transparent, computer-based instrument capable of detecting age-related changes on visual processing and cortical functions for the purposes of research into human behavior in computational transportation science. After obtaining content validity, exploring psychometric properties of the developed tasks, we derived (Study 1) the scoring method for measuring cerebral decline on 106 older drivers aged ≥70 years attending a driving refresher course organized by the Swiss Automobile Association to test the instrument's validity against on-road driving performance (106 older drivers). We then validated the derived method on a new sample of 182 drivers (Study 2). We then measured the instrument's reliability having 17 healthy, young volunteers repeat all tests included in the instrument five times (Study 3) and explored the instrument's psychophysical underlying functions on 47 older drivers (Study 4). Finally, we tested the instrument's responsiveness to alcohol and effects on performance on a driving simulator in a randomized, double-blinded, placebo, crossover, dose-response, validation trial including 20 healthy, young volunteers (Study 5). The developed instrument revealed good psychometric properties related to processing speed. It was reliable (ICC = 0.853) and showed reasonable association to driving performance (R (2) = 0.053), and responded to blood alcohol concentrations of 0.5 g/L (p = 0.008). Our results suggest that MedDrive is capable of detecting age-related changes that affect processing speed. These changes nevertheless do not necessarily affect driving behavior.

Altruism, Equity, and Reciprocity in a Gift-Exchange Experiment: An Encompassing Approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motives must be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recent models of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as either altruism- based, equity-based, or reciprocity-based. We estimate and compare leading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. We then offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches, thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determining the relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition, the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we find that intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruistic considerations all play a significant role in players' decisions.

The role of role uncertainty in modified dictator games

We compare behavior in modified dictator games with and without role uncertainty. Subjectschoose between a selfish action, a costly surplus creating action (altruistic behavior) and acostly surplus destroying action (spiteful behavior). While costly surplus creating actions are themost frequent under role uncertainty (64%), selfish actions become the most frequent withoutrole uncertainty (69%). Also, the frequency of surplus destroying choices is negligible with roleuncertainty (1%) but not so without it (11%). A classification of subjects into four differenttypes of interdependent preferences (Selfish, Social Welfare maximizing, Inequity Averse andCompetitive) shows that the use of role uncertainty overestimates the prevalence of SocialWelfare maximizing preferences in the subject population (from 74% with role uncertainty to21% without it) and underestimates Selfish and Inequity Averse preferences. An additionaltreatment, in which subjects undertake an understanding test before participating in theexperiment with role uncertainty, shows that the vast majority of subjects (93%) correctlyunderstand the payoff mechanism with role uncertainty, but yet surplus creating actions weremost frequent. Our results warn against the use of role uncertainty in experiments that aim tomeasure the prevalence of interdependent preferences.

Influence of photoperiod on body weight and depth of burrowing in larvae of Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) and implications for forensic entomology

Blowflies use discrete, ephemeral breeding sites for larval nutrition. After exhaustion of the food supply, the larvae disperse in search of sites to pupate or to seek other sources of food in a process known as post-feeding larval dispersal. In this study, some of the most important aspects of this process were investigated in larvae of the blowflies Chrysomya megacephala exposed to a variety of light: dark (LD) cycles (0:0 h, 12:12 h and 24:0 h) and incubated in tubes covered with vermiculite. For each pupa, the body weight and depth of burrowing were determined. Statistical tests were used to examine the relationship of depth of burrowing and body weight to photoperiod at which burrowing occurred. The study of burial behavior in post-feeding larval dispersing can be useful for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) of human corpses in forensic medicine.

Relative price riddles in international business cycle theory: Are transport costs the explanation?

We study relative price behavior in an international business cyclemodel with specialization in production, in which a goods marketfriction is introduced through transport costs. The transporttechnology allows for flexible transport costs. We analyze whetherthis extension can account for the striking differences betweentheory and data as far as the moments of terms of trade and realexchange rates are concerned. We find that transport costs increaseboth the volatility of the terms of trade and the volatility of thereal exchange rate. However, unless the transport technology isspecified by a Leontief technology, transport costs do not resolvethe quantitative discrepancies between theory and data. Asurprising result is that transport costs may actually lower thepersistence of the real exchange rate, a finding that is in contrastto much of the emphasis of the empirical literature.

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

Award errors and permanent disability benefits in Spain

There is a controversial debate about the effects of permanent disability benefits on labormarket behavior. In this paper we estimate equations for deserving and receiving disabilitybenefits to evaluate the award error as the difference in the probability of receiving anddeserving using survey data from Spain. Our results indicate that individuals aged between55 and 59, self-employers or working in an agricultural sector have a probability of receiving a benefit without deserving it significantly higher than the rest of individuals. We also find evidence of gender discrimination since male have a significantly higher probability of receiving a benefit without deserving it. This seems to confirm that disability benefits are being used as an instrument for exiting the labor market for some individuals approaching the early retirement or those who do not have right to retire early. Taking into account that awarding process depends on Social Security Provincial Department, this means that some departments are applying loosely the disability requirements for granting disability benefits.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).