Evolutionary and convergence stability for continuous phenotypes in finite populations derived from two-allele models.

The evolution of a quantitative phenotype is often envisioned as a trait substitution sequence where mutant alleles repeatedly replace resident ones. In infinite populations, the invasion fitness of a mutant in this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process is used to characterize features about long-term phenotypic evolution, such as singular points, convergence stability (established from first-order effects of selection), branching points, and evolutionary stability (established from second-order effects of selection). Here, we try to characterize long-term phenotypic evolution in finite populations from this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process. We construct a stochastic model describing evolutionary dynamics at non-rare mutant allele frequency. We then derive stability conditions based on stationary average mutant frequencies in the presence of vanishing mutation rates. We find that the second-order stability condition obtained from second-order effects of selection is identical to convergence stability. Thus, in two-allele systems in finite populations, convergence stability is enough to characterize long-term evolution under the trait substitution sequence assumption. We perform individual-based simulations to confirm our analytic results.

Technology, business models and network structure in the airline industry

Network airlines have been increasingly focusing their operations on hub airports through the exploitation of connecting traffic, allowing them to take advantage of economies of traffic density, which are unequivocal in the airline industry. Less attention has been devoted to airlines' decisions on point-to-point thin routes, which could be served using different aircraft technologies and different business models. This paper examines, both theoretically and empirically, the impact on airlines' networks of the two major innovations in the airline industry in the last two decades: the regional jet technology and the low-cost business model. We show that, under certain circumstances, direct services on point-to-point thin routes can be viable and thus airlines may be interested in deviating passengers out of the hub. Keywords: regional jet technology; low-cost business model; point-to-point network; hub-and-spoke network JEL Classi…fication Numbers: L13; L2; L93

Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

IL-5 and IL-5 receptor in asthma

Eosinophils, along with mast cells are key cells involved in the innate immune response against parasitic infection whereas the adaptive immune response is largely dependent on lymphocytes. In chronic parasitic disease and in chronic allergic disease, IL-5 is predominantly a T cell derived cytokine which is particularly important for the terminal differentiation, activation and survival of committed eosinophil precursors. The human IL-5 gene is located on chromosome 5 in a gene cluster that contains the evolutionary related IL-4 family of cytokine genes. The human IL-5 receptor complex is a heterodimer consisting of a unique a subunit (predominantly expressed on eosinophils) and a beta subunit which is shared between the receptors for IL-3 & GM-CSF (more widely expressed). The a subunit is required for ligand-specific binding whereas association with the beta subunit results in increased binding affinity. The alternative splicing of the alphaIL-5R gene which contains 14 exons can yield several alphaIL-5R isoforms including a membrane-anchored isoform (alphaIL-5Rm) and a soluble isoform (alphaIL-5Rs). Cytokines such as IL-5 produce specific and non-specific cellular responses through specific cell membrane receptor mediated activation of intracellular signal transduction pathways which, to a large part, regulate gene expression. The major intracellular signal transduction mechanism is activation of non-receptor associated tyrosine kinases including JAK and MAP kinases which can then transduce signals via a novel family of transcriptional factors named signal transducers and activators of transcription (STATS). JAK2, STAT1 and STAT 5 appear to be particularly important in IL-5 mediated eosinophil responses. Asthma is characterized by episodic airways obstruction, increased bronchial responsiveness, and airway inflammation. Several studies have shown an association between the number of activated T cells and eosinophils in the airways and abnormalities in FEV1, airway reactivity and clinical severity in asthma. It has now been well documented that IL-5 is highly expressed in the bronchial mucosa of atopic and intrinsic asthmatics and that the increased IL-5 mRNA present in airway tissues is predominantly T cell derived. Immunocytochemical staining of bronchial biopsy sections has confirmed that IL-5 mRNA transcripts are translated into protein in asthmatic subjects. Furthermore, the number of activated CD 4 + T cells and IL-5 mRNA positive cells are increased in asthmatic airways following antigen challenge and studies that have examined IL-5 expression in asthmatic subjects before and after steroids have shown significantly decreased expression following oral corticosteroid treatment in steroid-sensitive asthma but not in steroid resistant and chronic severe steroid dependent asthma. The link between T cell derived IL-5 and eosinophil activation in asthmatic airways is further strengthened by the demonstration that there is an increased number of alphaIL-5R mRNA positive cells in the bronchial biopsies of atopic and non-atopic asthmatic subjects and that the eosinophil is the predominant site of this increased alphaIL-5R mRNA expression. We have also shown that the subset of activated eosinophils that expressed mRNA for membrane bound alpha IL5r inversely correlated with FEV1, whereas the subset of activated eosinophils that expressed mRNA for soluble alphaIL5r directly correlated with FEV1. Hence, not only does this data suggest that the presence of eosinophils expressing alphaIL-5R mRNA contribute towards the pathogenesis of bronchial asthma, but also that the eosinophil phenotype with respect to alphaIL-5R isoform expression is of central importance. Finally, there are several animal, and more recently in vitro lung explant, models of allergen induced eosinophilia, late airway responses(LARS), and bronchial hyperresponsiveness(BHR) - all of which support a link between IL-5 and airway eosinophila and bronchial hyperresponsiveness. The most direct demonstration of T cell involvement in LARS is the finding that these physiological responses can be transferred by CD4+ but not CD8+ T cells in rats. The importance of IL-5 in animal models of allergen induced bronchial hyperresponsiveness has been further demonstrated by a number of studies which have indicated that IL-5 administration is able to induce late phase responses and BHR and that anti-IL-5 antibody can block allergen induced late phase responses and BHR. In summary, activated T lymphocytes, IL5 production and eosinophil activation are particularly important in the asthmatic response. Human studies in asthma and studies in allergic animal models have clearly emphasised the unique role of IL-5 in linking T lymphocytes and adaptive immunity, the eosinophil effector cell, and the asthma phenotype. The central role of activated lymphocytes and eosinophils in asthma would argue for the likely therapeutic success of strategies to block T cell and eosinophil activation (eg steroids). Importantly, more targeted therapies may avoid the complications associated with steroids. Such therapies could target key T cell activation proteins and cytokines by various means including blocking antibodies (eg anti-CD4, anti-CD40, anti-IL-5 etc), antisense oligonucleotides to their specific mRNAs, and/or selective inhibition of the promoter sites for these genes. Another option would be to target key eosinophil activation mechanisms including the aIL5r. As always, the risk to benefit ratio of such strategies await the results of well conducted clinical trials.

Cellular immune responses to HCV core increase and HCV RNA levels decrease during successful antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of morbidity in HIV infected individuals. Coinfection with HIV is associated with diminished HCV-specific immune responses and higher HCV RNA levels. AIMS: To investigate whether long-term combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) restores HCV-specific T cell responses and improves the control of HCV replication. METHODS: T cell responses were evaluated longitudinally in 80 HIV/HCV coinfected individuals by ex vivo interferon-gamma-ELISpot responses to HCV core peptides, that predominantly stimulate CD4(+) T cells. HCV RNA levels were assessed by real-time PCR in 114 individuals. RESULTS: The proportion of individuals with detectable T cell responses to HCV core peptides was 19% before starting cART, 24% in the first year on cART and increased significantly to 45% and 49% after 33 and 70 months on cART (p=0.001). HCV-specific immune responses increased in individuals with chronic (+31%) and spontaneously cleared HCV infection (+30%). Median HCV RNA levels before starting cART were 6.5 log(10) IU/ml. During long-term cART, median HCV-RNA levels slightly decreased compared to pre-cART levels (-0.3 log10 IU/ml, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Successful cART is associated with increasing cellular immune responses to HCV core peptides and with a slight long-term decrease in HCV RNA levels. These findings are in line with the favourable clinical effects of cART on the natural history of hepatitis C and with the current recommendation to start cART earlier in HCV/HIV coinfected individuals.

Oxidative stress and inflammation response after nanoparticle exposure : differences between human lung cell monocultures and an advanced three-dimensional model of the human epithelial airways

Combustion-derived and manufactured nanoparticles (NPs) are known to provoke oxidative stress and inflammatory responses in human lung cells; therefore, they play an important role during the development of adverse health effects. As the lungs are composed of more than 40 different cell types, it is of particular interest to perform toxicological studies with co-cultures systems, rather than with monocultures of only one cell type, to gain a better understanding of complex cellular reactions upon exposure to toxic substances. Monocultures of A549 human epithelial lung cells, human monocyte-derived macrophages and monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDCs) as well as triple cell co-cultures consisting of all three cell types were exposed to combustion-derived NPs (diesel exhaust particles) and to manufactured NPs (titanium dioxide and single-walled carbon nanotubes). The penetration of particles into cells was analysed by transmission electron microscopy. The amount of intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS), the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) and the production of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-a and interleukin (IL)-8 were quantified. The results of the monocultures were summed with an adjustment for the number of each single cell type in the triple cell co-culture. All three particle types were found in all cell and culture types. The production of ROS was induced by all particle types in all cell cultures except in monocultures of MDDCs. The TAC and the (pro-)inflammatory reactions were not statistically significantly increased by particle exposure in any of the cell cultures. Interestingly, in the triple cell co-cultures, the TAC and IL-8 concentrations were lower and the TNF-a concentrations were higher than the expected values calculated from the monocultures. The interplay of different lung cell types seems to substantially modulate the oxidative stress and the inflammatory responses after NP exposure. [Authors]

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Participation of interleukin-5, interleukin-8 and leukotriene B4 in eosinophil accumulation in two different experimental models

There are several experimental models describing in vivo eosinophil (EO) migration, including ip injection of a large volume of saline (SAL) or Sephadex beads (SEP). The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanisms involved in the EO migration in these two models. Two consecutive injections of SAL given 48 hr apart, induced a selective recruitment of EO into peritoneal cavity of rats, which peaked 48 hr after the last injection. SEP, when injected ip, promoted EO accumulation in rats. The phenomenom was dose-related and peaked 48 hr after SEP injection. To investigate the mediators involved in this process we showed that BW A4C, MK 886 and dexamethasone (DXA) inhibited the EO migration induced by SAL and SEP. To investigate the source of the EO chemotactic factor we showed that mast cells, macrophages (MO), but not lymphocytes, incubated in vitro in presence of SAL released a factor which induced EO migration. With SEP, only mast cells release a factor that induced EO migration, which was inhibited by BW A4C, MK 886 and DXA. Furthermore, the chemotactic activity of SAL-stimulated mast cells was inhibited by antisera against IL-5 and IL-8 (interleukin). SAL-stimulated MO were only inhibited by anti-IL-8 antibodies as well SEP-stimulated mast cells. These results suggest that the EO migration induced by SAL may be dependent on resident mast cells and MO and mediated by LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8. SEP-induced EO migration was dependent on mast cells and may be mediated by LTB4 and IL-8. Furthermore, IL-5 and IL-8 induced EO migration, which was also dependent on resident cells and mediated by LTB4 . In conclusion, EO migration induced by SAL is dependent on mast cells and MO, whereas that induced by SEP is dependent on mast cells alone. Stimulated mast cells release LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8 while MO release LTB4 and IL-8. The IL-5 and IL-8 release by the SAL or SEP-stimulated resident cells may act in an autocrine fashion, thus potentiating LTB4 release.

Role of eosinophilic airway inflammation in models of asthma

Eosinophils play a central role in the establishment and outcome of bronchial inflammation in asthma. Animal models of allergy are useful to answer questions related to mechanisms of allergic inflammation. We have used models of sensitized and boosted guinea pigs to investigate the nature of bronchial inflammation in allergic conditions. These animals develop marked bronchial infiltration composed mainly of CD4+ T-lymphocytes and eosinophils. Further provocation with antigen leads to degranulation of eosinophils and ulceration of the bronchial mucosa. Eosinophils are the first cells to increase in numbers in the mucosa after antigen challenge and depend on the expression of alpha 4 integrin to adhere to the vascular endothelium and transmigrate to the mucosa. Blockage of alpha4 integrin expression with specific antibody prevents not only the transmigration of eosinophils but also the development of bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to agonists in sensitized and challenged animals, clearly suggesting a role for this cell type in this altered functional state. Moreover, introduction of antibody against Major Basic Protein into the airways also prevents the development of BHR in similar model. BHR can also be suppressed by the use of FK506, an immunosuppressor that reduces in almost 100% the infiltration of eosinophils into the bronchi of allergic animals. These data support the concept that eosinophil is the most important pro-inflammatory factor in bronchial inflammation associated with allergy.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Cellular pathology of hilar neurons in Ammon's horn sclerosis.

In addition to functionally affected neuronal signaling pathways, altered axonal, dendritic, and synaptic morphology may contribute to hippocampal hyperexcitability in chronic mesial temporal lobe epilepsies (MTLE). The sclerotic hippocampus in Ammon's horn sclerosis (AHS)-associated MTLE, which shows segmental neuronal cell loss, axonal reorganization, and astrogliosis, would appear particularly susceptible to such changes. To characterize the cellular hippocampal pathology in MTLE, we have analyzed hilar neurons in surgical hippocampus specimens from patients with MTLE. Anatomically well-preserved hippocampal specimens from patients with AHS (n = 44) and from patients with focal temporal lesions (non-AHS; n = 20) were studied using confocal laser scanning microscopy (CFLSM) and electron microscopy (EM). Hippocampal samples from three tumor patients without chronic epilepsies and autopsy samples were used as controls. Using intracellular Lucifer Yellow injection and CFLSM, spiny pyramidal, multipolar, and mossy cells as well as non-spiny multipolar neurons have been identified as major hilar cell types in controls and lesion-associated MTLE specimens. In contrast, none of the hilar neurons from AHS specimens displayed a morphology reminiscent of mossy cells. In AHS, a major portion of the pyramidal and multipolar neurons showed extensive dendritic ramification and periodic nodular swellings of dendritic shafts. EM analysis confirmed the altered cellular morphology, with an accumulation of cytoskeletal filaments and increased numbers of mitochondria as the most prominent findings. To characterize cytoskeletal alterations in hilar neurons further, immunohistochemical reactions for neurofilament proteins (NFP), microtubule-associated proteins, and tau were performed. This analysis specifically identified large and atypical hilar neurons with an accumulation of low weight NFP. Our data demonstrate striking structural alterations in hilar neurons of patients with AHS compared with controls and non-sclerotic MTLE specimens. Such changes may develop during cellular reorganization in the epileptogenic hippocampus and are likely to contribute to the pathogenesis or maintenance of temporal lobe epilepsy.

Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.