A Competence-Based Post-Disaster Reconstruction Process: Findings from Sri Lanka

As natural disasters continue to escalate in frequency and magnitude, NGOs are faced with numerous barriers as they attempt to implement post-disaster reconstruction (PDR) projects. In many cases, a lack of competency in key areas leads to a reduction in overall project success. This paper utilizes the competency-based framework of von Meding et al. (2010) as the starting point of its inquiry. In this context, a leading NGO responsible for the implementation of reconstruction and rehabilitation in Sri Lanka following the Asian Tsunami has been investigated in depth using a causal mapping interview procedure with key project staff. The combined barriers within this organization’s PDR operations have been identified and measured and solutions articulated. The study found that within this organization key objectives were to achieve the ‘build back better’ mantra and to effectively plan interventions in advance. The primary barriers to successful reconstruction were identified as the high turnover rate of humanitarian staff and a poor level of communication and co-operation between agencies. An essential strategy employed to combat these barriers is the consideration of staff capabilities, which links us back to competence-based theory. The results are highly valuable in the context of an ongoing wider research study on competence within humanitarian organizations.

Alcohol and the affluence paradox: A secondary analysis exploring the health disparities surrounding adolescent alcohol use and alcohol related harm in adulthood

Several studies have shown social differences in alcohol consumption, and social inequalities of harm related to alcohol use and abuse. However, relationships between the position in the socio-economic spectrum, alcohol use, and alcohol-related health problems are not clear cut. While there is some evidence of social gradients or associations between indicators of deprivation and some adolescence outcomes (e.g. externalising behaviour), the evidence regarding associations between socio-economic status and alcohol-related problems in adolescence is more conflicting. A major problem in studying socio-economic inequalities in adolescent health is related to the paucity of measures of socio-economic status in adolescence that are both conceptually and methodologically sound.
The aims of this study were to investigate socio-economic differences in pathways from onset to establishment of drinking patterns in adolescence, assess the consequences of these pathways in terms of alcohol related harm, and to consider the causal mechanisms that may contribute to socio-economic differences in drinking pathways and outcomes

Work-place social capital and smoking cessation: The Finnish Public Sector Study

AIMS:
To examine whether high social capital at work is associated with an increased likelihood of smoking cessation in baseline smokers.
DESIGN:
Prospective cohort study.
SETTING:
Finland.
PARTICIPANTS:
A total of 4853 employees who reported to be smokers in the baseline survey in 2000-2002 (response rate 68%) and responded to a follow-up survey on smoking status in 2004-2005 (response rate 77%).
MEASUREMENTS:
Work-place social capital was assessed using a validated and psychometrically tested eight-item measure. Control variables included sex, age, socio-economic position, marital status, place of work, heavy drinking, physical activity, body mass index and physician-diagnosed depression.
FINDINGS:
In multi-level logistic regression models adjusted for all the covariates, the odds for being a non-smoker at follow-up were 1.26 [95% confidence interval (CI)=1.03-1.55] times higher for baseline smokers who reported high individual-level social capital than for their counterparts with low social capital. In an analysis stratified by socio-economic position, a significant association between individual-level social capital and smoking cessation was observed in the high socio-economic group [odds ratio (OR) (95% CI)=1.63 (1.01-2.63)], but not in intermediate [(OR=1.10 (0.83-1.47)] or low socio-economic groups [(OR=1.28 (0.86-1.91)]. Work unit-level social capital was not associated with smoking cessation.
CONCLUSIONS:
If the observed associations are causal, these findings suggest that high perceived social capital at work may facilitate smoking cessation among smokers in higher-status jobs.

The use and limitation of realistic evaluation as a tool for evidence-based practice: a critical realist perspective

In this paper, we assess realistic evaluation’s articulation with evidence-based practice (EBP) from the perspective of critical realism. We argue that the adoption by realistic evaluation of a realist causal ontology means that it is better placed to explain complex healthcare interventions than the traditional method used by EBP, the randomized controlled trial (RCT). However, we do not conclude from this that the use of RCTs is without merit, arguing that it is possible to use both methods in combination under the rubric of realist theory. More negatively, we contend that the rejection of critical theory and utopianism by realistic evaluation in favour of the pragmatism of piecemeal social engineering means that it is vulnerable to accusations that it promotes technocratic interpretations of human problems. We conclude that, insofar as realistic evaluation adheres to the ontology of critical realism, it provides a sound contribution to EBP, but insofar as it rejects the critical turn of Bhaskar’s realism, it replicates the technocratic tendencies inherent in EBP.

Towards an understanding of the causes and effects of software requirements change: two case studies

Changes to software requirements not only pose a risk to the successful delivery of software applications but also provide opportunity for improved usability and value. Increased understanding of the causes and consequences of change can support requirements management and also make progress towards the goal of change anticipation. This paper presents the results of two case studies that address objectives arising from that ultimate goal. The first case study evaluated the potential of a change source taxonomy containing the elements ‘market’, ‘organisation’, ‘vision’, ‘specification’, and ‘solution’ to provide a meaningful basis for change classification and measurement. The second case study investigated whether the requirements attributes of novelty, complexity, and dependency correlated with requirements volatility. While insufficiency of data in the first case study precluded an investigation of changes arising due to the change source of ‘market’, for the remainder of the change sources, results indicate a significant difference in cost, value to the customer and management considerations. Findings show that higher cost and value changes arose more often from ‘organisation’ and ‘vision’ sources; these changes also generally involved the co-operation of more stakeholder groups and were considered to be less controllable than changes arising from the ‘specification’ or ‘solution’ sources. Results from the second case study indicate that only ‘requirements dependency’ is consistently correlated with volatility and that changes coming from each change source affect different groups of requirements. We conclude that the taxonomy can provide a meaningful means of change classification, but that a single requirement attribute is insufficient for change prediction. A theoretical causal account of requirements change is drawn from the implications of the combined results of the two case studies.

Computational learning of the conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution: Learning C-Ph distributions

This paper presents a new algorithm for learning the structure of a special type of Bayesian network. The conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution is a Bayesian network that models the probabilistic causal relationships between a skewed continuous variable, modelled by the Coxian phase-type distribution, a special type of Markov model, and a set of interacting discrete variables. The algorithm takes a dataset as input and produces the structure, parameters and graphical representations of the fit of the C-Ph distribution as output.The algorithm, which uses a greedy-search technique and has been implemented in MATLAB, is evaluated using a simulated data set consisting of 20,000 cases. The results show that the original C-Ph distribution is recaptured and the fit of the network to the data is discussed.

Bagging statistical network inference from large-scale gene expression data.

Modern biology and medicine aim at hunting molecular and cellular causes of biological functions and diseases. Gene regulatory networks (GRN) inferred from gene expression data are considered an important aid for this research by providing a map of molecular interactions. Hence, GRNs have the potential enabling and enhancing basic as well as applied research in the life sciences. In this paper, we introduce a new method called BC3NET for inferring causal gene regulatory networks from large-scale gene expression data. BC3NET is an ensemble method that is based on bagging the C3NET algorithm, which means it corresponds to a Bayesian approach with noninformative priors. In this study we demonstrate for a variety of simulated and biological gene expression data from S. cerevisiae that BC3NET is an important enhancement over other inference methods that is capable of capturing biochemical interactions from transcription regulation and protein-protein interaction sensibly. An implementation of BC3NET is freely available as an R package from the CRAN repository. © 2012 de Matos Simoes, Emmert-Streib.

Challenges of UK/Irish Contractors Regarding Material Management and Logistics in Confined Site Construction

The aim of this paper is to identify the various managerial issues encountered by UK/Irish contractors in the management of materials in confined urban construction sites. Through extensive literature review, detailed interviews, case studies, cognitive mapping, causal loop diagrams, questionnaire survey and documenting severity indices, a comprehensive insight into the materials management concerns within a confined construction site environment is envisaged and portrayed. The leading issues highlighted are: that contractors’ material spatial requirements exceed available space, it is difficult to coordinate the storage of materials in line with the programme, location of the site entrance makes delivery of materials particularly difficult, it is difficult to store materials on-site due to the lack of space, and difficult to coordinate the storage requirements of the various sub-contractors. With the continued development of confined urban centres and the increasing high cost of materials, any marginal savings made on-site would translate into significant monetary savings at project completion. Such savings would give developers a distinct competitive advantage in this challenging economic climate. As on-site management professionals successfully identify, acknowledge and counteract the numerous issues illustrated, the successful management of materials on a confined urban construction site becomes attainable.

Carotenoids and co-antioxidants in age-related maculopathy:design and methods

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD), is the leading cause of blind registration in the Western World among individuals 65 years or older. Early AMD, a clinical state without overt functional loss, is said to be present clinically when yellowish deposits known as drusen and/or alterations of fundus pigmentation are seen in the macular retina. Although the etiopathogenesis of AMD remains uncertain, there is a growing body of evidence in support of the view that cumulative oxidative damage plays a causal role. Appropriate dietary antioxidant supplementation is likely to be beneficial in maintaining visual function in patients with AMD, and preventing or delaying the progression of early AMD to late AMD. The Carotenoids in Age-Related Maculopathy (CARMA) Study is a randomized and double-masked clinical trial of antioxidant supplementation versus placebo in 433 participants with either early AMD features of sufficient severity in at least one eye or any level of AMD in one eye with late AMD (neovascular AMD or central geographic atrophy) in the fellow eye. The aim of the CARMA Study is to investigate whether lutein and zeaxanthin, in combination with co-antioxidants (vitamin C, E, and zinc), has a beneficial effect on visual function and/or prevention of progression from early to late stages of disease. The primary outcome is improved or preserved distance visual acuity at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include improved or preserved interferometric acuity, contrast sensitivity, shape discrimination ability, and change in AMD severity as monitored by fundus photography. This article outlines the CARMA Study design and methodology, including its rationale.

The Conditional Phase-type distribution: Graphical Models for Continuous Non-Normal Data:The Conditional Phase-type (C-Ph) distribution:

Conditional Gaussian (CG) distributions allow the inclusion of both discrete and continuous variables in a model assuming that the continuous variable is normally distributed. However, the CG distributions have proved to be unsuitable for survival data which tends to be highly skewed. A new method of analysis is required to take into account continuous variables which are not normally distributed. The aim of this paper is to introduce the more appropriate conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution for representing a continuous non-normal variable while also incorporating the causal information in the form of a Bayesian network.

Plasma HDL cholesterol and risk of myocardial infarction: A mendelian randomisation study

Background: High plasma HDL cholesterol is associated with reduced risk of myocardial infarction, but whether this association is causal is unclear. Exploiting the fact that genotypes are randomly assigned at meiosis, are independent of non-genetic confounding, and are unmodified by disease processes, mendelian random isation can be used to test the hypothesis that the association of a plasma biomarker with disease is causal.
Methods: We performed two mendelian randomisation analyses. First, we used as an instrument a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the endothelial lipase gene (LIPG Asn396Ser) and tested this SNP in 20 studies (20 913 myocardial infarction cases, 95 407 controls). Second, we used as an instrument a genetic score consisting of 14 common SNPs that exclusively associate with HDL cholesterol and tested this score in up to 12 482 cases of myocardial infarction and 41 331 controls. As a positive control, we also tested a genetic score of 13 common SNPs exclusively associated with LDL cholesterol.
Findings: Carriers of the LIPG 396Ser allele (2·6% frequency) had higher HDL cholesterol (0·14 mmol/L higher p=8×10-13) but similar levels of other lipid and non-lipid risk factors for myocardial infarction compared with noncarriers. This difference in HDL cholesterol is expected to decrease risk of myocardial infarction by 13% (odds ratio [OR] 0·87, 95% CI 0·84-0·91). However, we noted that the 396Ser allele was not associated with risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·99, 95% CI 0·88-1·11, p=0·85). From observational epidemiology, an increase of 1 SD in HDL cholesterol was associated with reduced risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·62, 95% CI 0·58-0·66). However, a 1 SD increase in HDL cholesterol due to genetic score was not associated with risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·93 95% CI 0·68-1·26, p=0·63). For LDL cholesterol, the estimate from observational epidemiology (a 1 SD increase in LDL cholesterol associated with OR 1·54, 95% CI 1·45-1·63) was concordant with that from genetic score (OR 2·13 95% CI 1·69-2·69, p=2×10 -10).
Interpretation: Some genetic mechanisms that raise plasma HDL cholesterol do not seem to lower risk of myocardial infarction. These data challenge the concept that raising of plasma HDL cholesterol will uniformly translate into reductions in risk of myocardial infarction.