Causation, counterfactuals and competitive advantage

Causation is still poorly understood in strategy research, and confusion prevails around key concepts such as competitive advantage. In this paper, we define epistemological conditions that help to dispel some of this confusion and to provide a basis for more developed approaches. In particular, we argue that a counterfactual approach – that builds on a systematic analysis of ‘what-if’ questions – can advance our understanding of key causal mechanisms in strategy research. We offer two concrete methodologies – counterfactual history and causal modeling – as useful solutions. We also show that these methodologies open up new avenues in research on competitive advantage. Counterfactual history can add to our understanding of the context-specific construction of resource-based competitive advantage and path dependence, and causal modeling can help to reconceptualize the relationships between resources and performance. In particular, resource properties can be regarded as mediating mechanisms in these causal relationships.

Somali State Failure: Players, Incentives and Institutions

In Somalia the central government collapsed in 1991 and since then state failure became a widespread phenomenon and one of the greatest political and humanitarian problems facing the world in this century. Thus, the main objective of this research is to answer the following question: What went wrong? Most of the existing literature on the political economy of conflict starts from the assumption that state in Africa is predatory by nature. Unlike these studies, the present research, although it uses predation theory, starts from the social contract approach of state definition. Therefore, rather than contemplating actions and policies of the rulers alone, this approach allows us to deliberately bring the role of the society – as citizens – and other players into the analyses. In Chapter 1, after introducing the study, a simple principal-agent model will be developed to check the logical consistence of the argument and to make the identification of causal mechanism easier. I also identify three main actors in the process of state failure in Somalia: the Somali state, Somali society and the superpowers. In Chapter 2, so as to understand the incentives, preferences and constraints of each player in the state failure game, I in some depth analyse the evolution and structure of three central informal institutions: identity based patronage system of leadership, political tribalism, and the Cold War. These three institutions are considered as the rules of the game in the Somali state failure. Chapter 3 summarises the successive civilian governments’ achievements and failures (1960-69) concerning the main national goals, national unification and socio-economic development. Chapter 4 shows that the military regime, although it assumed power through extralegal means, served to some extent the developmental interest of the citizens in the first five years of its rule. Chapter 5 shows the process, and the factors involved, of the military regime’s self-transformation from being an agent for the developmental interests of the society to a predatory state that not only undermines the interests of the society but that also destroys the state itself. Chapter 6 addresses the process of disintegration of the post-colonial state of Somalia. The chapter shows how the regime’s merciless reactions to political ventures by power-seeking opposition leaders shattered the entire country and wrecked the state institutions. Chapter 7 concludes the study by summarising the main findings: due to the incentive structures generated by the informal institutions, the formal state institutions fell apart.

Strategic Soft Human Resource Management - The Very Idea

On the one hand this thesis attempts to develop and empirically test an ethically defensible theorization of the relationship between human resource management (HRM) and competitive advantage. The specific empirical evidence indicates that at least part of HRM's causal influence on employee performance may operate indirectly through a social architecture and then through psychological empowerment. However, in particular the evidence concerning a potential influence of HRM on organizational performance seems to put in question some of the rhetorics within the HRM research community. On the other hand, the thesis tries to explicate and defend a certain attitude towards the philosophically oriented debates within organization science. This involves suggestions as to how we should understand meaning, reference, truth, justification and knowledge. In this understanding it is not fruitful to see either the problems or the solutions to the problems of empirical social science as fundamentally philosophical ones. It is argued that the notorious problems of social science, in this thesis exemplified by research on HRM, can be seen as related to dynamic complexity in combination with both the ethical and pragmatic difficulty of ”laboratory-like-experiments”. Solutions … can only be sought by informed trials and errors depending on the perceived familiarity with the object(s) of research. The odds are against anybody who hopes for clearly adequate social scientific answers to more complex questions. Social science is in particular unlikely to arrive at largely accepted knowledge of the kind ”if we do this, then that will happen”, or even ”if we do this, then that is likely to happen”. One of the problems probably facing most of the social scientific research communities is to specify and agree upon the ”this ” and the ”that” and provide convincing evidence of how they are (causally) related. On most more complex questions the role of social science seems largely to remain that of contributing to a (critical) conversation, rather than to arrive at more generally accepted knowledge. This is ultimately what is both argued and, in a sense, demonstrated using research on the relationship between HRM and organizational performance as an example.

Estimation of signals in colored non gaussian noise based on Gaussian Mixture models

Non-Gaussianity of signals/noise often results in significant performance degradation for systems, which are designed using the Gaussian assumption. So non-Gaussian signals/noise require a different modelling and processing approach. In this paper, we discuss a new Bayesian estimation technique for non-Gaussian signals corrupted by colored non Gaussian noise. The method is based on using zero mean finite Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for signal and noise. The estimation is done using an adaptive non-causal nonlinear filtering technique. The method involves deriving an estimator in terms of the GMM parameters, which are in turn estimated using the EM algorithm. The proposed filter is of finite length and offers computational feasibility. The simulations show that the proposed method gives a significant improvement compared to the linear filter for a wide variety of noise conditions, including impulsive noise. We also claim that the estimation of signal using the correlation with past and future samples leads to reduced mean squared error as compared to signal estimation based on past samples only.

Stories of Survival: Knowledge Intensive Organisations and the Finnish 1990s Recession

The recession that hit the Finnish economy at the beginning of the 1990s has been regarded as unusually severe. Organisations’ failure to survive the recession has been researched in their various aspects. However, the reasons for why and how organisations that survived did so have been explored to a somewhat lesser extent. This study concerns organisations that survived rather than those that failed to do so, as studying successful experiences is acknowledged as an important source for learning how to counteract future failure. The thesis examines four knowledge intensive organisations, with the focus on managerial and social aspects of the crisis handling processes. The study deals with managers’ and co-workers’ stories about organisational attempts to survive, rather than seeking to identify causal relationships. Drawing upon a narrative approach and a social constructionist perspective, the crisis handling processes are treated as reconstructions and rationalisations of what happened. A primary assumption of this thesis is that we make sense of experiences in retrospect, and the aim is to describe the handling of crisis situations and the hardships related to economic difficulties, by focusing on the interviewees’ explanations of how those difficulties were dealt with. The stories are about taking control despite the threats induced by an extremely severe economic recession, remaining active, how the managers and their co-workers dealt with the uncertainty experienced, and how the organisations subsequently survived. The analysis also interrogates such issues as trust, authenticity, legitimacy, identity and nostalgia in crisis contexts.

Dynamical cluster approximation: Nonlocal dynamics of correlated electron systems

We recently introduced the dynamical cluster approximation (DCA), a technique that includes short-ranged dynamical correlations in addition to the local dynamics of the dynamical mean-field approximation while preserving causality. The technique is based on an iterative self-consistency scheme on a finite-size periodic cluster. The dynamical mean-field approximation (exact result) is obtained by taking the cluster to a single site (the thermodynamic limit). Here, we provide details of our method, explicitly show that it is causal, systematic, Phi derivable, and that it becomes conserving as the cluster size increases. We demonstrate the DCA by applying it to a quantum Monte Carlo and exact enumeration study of the two-dimensional Falicov-Kimball model. The resulting spectral functions preserve causality, and the spectra and the charge-density-wave transition temperature converge quickly and systematically to the thermodynamic limit as the cluster size increases.

World parliament – fact or fiction? On the feasibility of world parliamentary models

Cosmopolitan ideals have been on the philosophical agenda for several millennia but the end of the Cold War started a new discussion on state sovereignty, global democracy, the role of international law and global institutions. The Westphalian state system in practice since the 17th century is transforming and the democracy deficit needs new solutions. An impetus has been the fact that in the present world, an international body representing global citizens does not exist. In this Master’s thesis, the possibility of establishing a world parliament is examined. In a case analysis, 17 models on world parliament from two journals, a volume of essays and two other publications are discussed. Based on general observations, the models are divided into four thematic groups. The models are analyzed with an emphasis on feasible and probable elements. Further, a new scenario with a time frame of thirty years is proposed based on the methodology of normative futures studies, taking special interest in causal relationships and actions leading to change. The scenario presents three gradual steps that each need to be realized before a sustainable world parliament is established. The theoretical framework is based on social constructivism, and changes in international and multi-level governance are examined with the concepts of globalization, democracy and sovereignty. A feasible, desirable and credible world parliament is constituted gradually by implying electoral, democratic and legal measures for members initially from exclusively democratic states, parliamentarians, non-governmental organizations and other groups. The parliament should be located outside the United Nations context, since a new body avoids the problem of inefficiency currently prevailing in the UN. The main objectives of the world parliament are to safeguard peace and international law and to offer legal advice in cases when international law has been violated. A feasible world parliament is advisory in the beginning but it is granted legislative powers in the future. The number of members in the world parliament could also be extended following the example of the EU enlargement process.

Applications of Treatment Effects Models and Semiparametric Estimation

This thesis is composed of an introductory chapter and four applications each of them constituting an own chapter. The common element underlying each of the chapters is the econometric methodology. The applications rely mostly on the leading econometric techniques related to estimation of causal effects. The first chapter introduces the econometric techniques that are employed in the remaining chapters. Chapter 2 studies the effects of shocking news on student performance. It exploits the fact that the school shooting in Kauhajoki in 2008 coincided with the matriculation examination period of that fall. It shows that the performance of men declined due to the news of the school shooting. For women the similar pattern remains unobserved. Chapter 3 studies the effects of minimum wage on employment by employing the original Card and Krueger (1994; CK) and Neumark and Wascher (2000; NW) data together with the changes-in-changes (CIC) estimator. As the main result it shows that the employment effect of an increase in the minimum wage is positive for small fast-food restaurants and negative for big fast-food restaurants. Therefore, it shows that the controversial positive employment effect reported by CK is overturned for big fast-food restaurants and that the NW data are shown, in contrast to their original results, to provide support for the positive employment effect. Chapter 4 employs the state-specific U.S. data (collected by Cohen and Einav [2003; CE]) on traffic fatalities to re-evaluate the effects of seat belt laws on the traffic fatalities by using the CIC estimator. It confirms the CE results that on the average an implementation of a mandatory seat belt law results in an increase in the seat belt usage rate and a decrease in the total fatality rate. In contrast to CE, it also finds evidence on compensating-behavior theory, which is observed especially in the states by the border of the U.S. Chapter 5 studies the life cycle consumption in Finland, with the special interest laid on the baby boomers and the older households. It shows that the baby boomers smooth their consumption over the life cycle more than other generations. It also shows that the old households smoothed their life cycle consumption more as a result of the recession in the 1990s, compared to young households.

Determinants of Cognitive Impairment in Old Age and Their Genetic Architecture

Cognitive health is of central importance for independent and balanced old age, while memory disorders represent the leading cause of intensive and long-term care among the Finnish elderly. The aims of this study were to analyse the effect of height, body mass index, weight change, metabolic conditions and coffee drinking in midlife on cognitive performance in old age among a sample of 2606 Finnish twins aged 65 years or older who had participated in a telephone interview to assess their cognitive status. Since coffee drinking associates with several metabolic conditions and Finns are known to be the greatest consumers of coffee in the world, the heritability and stability of coffee drinking was analysed in the whole Older Finnish Twin Cohort (n=10716). In order to investigate the association between height and cognitive performance in a population with more supportive childhood living conditions, a total of 2161 Danish twins were included in this study. A greater height was found to clearly associate with better cognitive performance in Finnish subjects, but less so among the Danish sample, which may reflect the childhood environmental differences between these cohorts. In the Finnish subjects, there was greater variance in cognitive performance among shorter subjects, and environmental factors were found to play a greater role in their cognitive performance, whereas the cognitive performance of taller participants was mainly explained by genetic factors. Midlife metabolic variables that were found to be significantly associated with a poorer cognitive performance in old age included a higher body mass index and three metabolic conditions: cardiovascular disease, hypertension and, most significantly of all, diabetes. Moreover, both weight gain and loss, even to a lesser degree than suggested previously, were found to be associated with poorer cognition. Furthermore, evidence of a causal relationship between midlife cardiovascular disease and cognitive performance in old age was demonstrated among discordant twin pairs. Conversely, no effect of coffee drinking in midlife on cognitive performance in old age was observed, although coffee drinking was demonstrated to be stable in the study population. The heritability of coffee drinking was found to differ across sexes and age groups, being 51% in men and 52% in women in the whole study population. This study supports the contention that cognitive performance in old age reflects the effects of multiple genetic and environmental exposures, including their complex interactions during the life-span. The demonstrated associations and evidence of a causal pathway between potentially preventable exposures and poorer cognitive performance highlight the importance of preventive medicine.

We Are All Georgians: The Neoconservative Narrative on the Russia-Georgia War

In this thesis I examine the U.S. foreign policy discussion that followed the war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008. In the politically charged setting that preceded the presidential elections, the subject of the debate was not only Washington's response to the crisis in the Caucasus but, more generally, the direction of U.S. foreign policy after the presidency of George W. Bush. As of November 2010, the reasons for and consequences of the Russia-Georgia war continue to be contested. My thesis demonstrates that there were already a number of different stories about the conflict immediately after the outbreak of hostilities. I want to argue that among these stories one can discern a “neoconservative narrative” that described the war as a confrontation between the East and the West and considered it as a test for Washington’s global leadership. I draw on the theory of securitization, particularly on a framework introduced by Holger Stritzel. Accordingly, I consider statements about the conflict as “threat texts” and analyze these based on the existing discursive context, the performative force of the threat texts and the positional power of the actors presenting them. My thesis suggests that a notion of narrativity can complement Stritzel’s securitization framework and take it further. Threat texts are established as narratives by attaching causal connections, meaning and actorship to the discourse. By focusing on this process I want to shed light on the relationship between the text and the context, capture the time dimension of a speech act articulation and help to explain how some interpretations of the conflict are privileged and others marginalized. I develop the theoretical discussion through an empirical analysis of the neoconservative narrative. Drawing on Stritzel’s framework, I argue that the internal logic of the narrative which was presented as self-evident can be analyzed in its historicity. Asking what was perceived to be at stake in the conflict, how the narrative was formed and what purposes it served also reveals the possibility for alternative explanations. My main source material consists of transcripts of think tank seminars organized in Washington, D.C. in August 2008. In addition, I resort to the foreign policy discussion in the mainstream media.

Against the Vagueness Argument

In this paper I offer a counterexample to the so called vagueness argument against restricted composition. This will be done in the lines of a recent suggestion by Trenton Merricks, namely by challenging the claim that there cannot be a sharp cut-off point in a composition sequence. It will be suggested that causal powers which emerge when composition occurs can serve as an indicator of such sharp cut-off points. The main example will be the case of a heap. It seems that heaps might provide a very plausible counterexample to the vagueness argument if we accept the idea that four grains of sand is the least number required to compose a heap—the case has been supported by W. D. Hart. My purpose here is not to put forward a new theory of composition, I only wish to refute the vagueness argument and point out that we should be wary of arguments of its form.

Comparative Analyses of Age- and Sex-Specific Patterns of Vocal Behaviour in Four Species of Old World Monkeys

Sound recordings and behavioural data were collected from four primate species of two genera (Macaca, Presbytis). Comparative analyses of structural and behavioural aspects of vocal communication revealed a high degree of intrageneric similarity but striking intergeneric differences. In the two macaque species (Macaca silenus, Macaca radiata), males and females shared the major part of the repertoire. In contrast, in the two langurs (Presbytis johnii, Presbytis entellus), many calls were exclusive to adult males. Striking differences between both species groups occurred with respect to age-specific patterns of vocal behaviour. The diversity of vocal behaviour was assessed from the number of different calls used and the proportion of each call in relation to total vocal output for a given age/sex class. In Macaca, diversity decreases with the age of the vocalizer, whereas in Presbytis the age of the vocalizer and the diversity of vocal behaviour are positively correlated. A comparison of the data of the two genera does not suggest any causal relationship between group composition (e.g. multi-male vs. one-male group) and communication system. Within each genus, interspecific differences in vocal behaviour can be explained by differences in social behaviour (e.g. group cohesion, intergroup relation, mating behaviour) and functional disparities. Possible factors responsible for the pronounced intergeneric differences in vocal behaviour between Macaca and Presbytis are discussed.

Functions of human papillomavirus E5 oncogene in epithelial cells and in the onset of cervical cancer

Human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are the causal agents of cervical cancer, which is the second most common cancer among women worldwide. Cellular transformation and carcinogenesis depend on the activities of viral E5, E6 and E7 proteins. Alterations in cell-cell contacts and in communication between epithelial cells take place during cervical carcinogenesis, leading to changes in cell morphology, increased cell motility and finally invasion. The aim of this thesis was to study genome-wide effects of the HPV type 16 (HPV-16) E5 protein on the expression of host cell messenger RNAs (mRNAs) and microRNAs by applying microarray technology. The results showed that the HPV-16 E5 protein alters several cellular pathways involved in cellular adhesion, motility and proliferation as well as in the extracellular matrix. The E5 protein was observed to enhance wound healing of epithelial cell monolayers by increasing cell motility in vivo. HPV-16 E5-induced alterations in the expression of cellular microRNAs and their target genes seem to favour increased proliferation and tumorigenesis. E5 was also shown to affect the expression of adherens junction proteins in HaCaT epithelial keratinocytes. In addition, a study of a membrane cytoskeletal cross-linker protein, ezrin, revealed that when activated, it localizes to adherens junctions. The results suggest that ezrin distribution to forming adherens junctions is due to Rac1 activity in epithelial cells. These studies reveal for the first time the holistic effects of HPV-16 E5 protein in promoting precancerous events in epithelial cells. The results contribute to identifyinging novel markers for cervical precancerous stages and to predicting disease behaviour.

Uniformly accelerated observer in Moyal spacetime

In Minkowski space, an accelerated reference frame may be defined as one that is related to an inertial frame by a sequence of instantaneous Lorentz transformations. Such an accelerated observer sees a causal horizon, and the quantum vacuum of the inertial observer appears thermal to the accelerated observer, also known as the Unruh effect. We argue that an accelerating frame may be similarly defined (i.e. as a sequence of instantaneous Lorentz transformations) in noncommutative Moyal spacetime, and discuss the twisted quantum field theory appropriate for such an accelerated observer. Our analysis shows that there are several new features in the case of noncommutative spacetime: chiral massless fields in (1 + 1) dimensions have a qualitatively different behavior compared to massive fields. In addition, the vacuum of the inertial observer is no longer an equilibrium thermal state of the accelerating observer, and the Bose-Einstein distribution acquires.-dependent corrections.

Constructions and situations : a constructivist reading of Hegel's System

The object of this work is Hegel's Logic, which comprises the first third of his philosophical System that also includes the Philosophy of Nature and the Philosophy of Spirit. The work is divided into two parts, where the first part investigates Hegel s Logic in itself or without an explicit reference to rest of Hegel's System. It is argued in the first part that Hegel's Logic contains a methodology for constructing examples of basic ontological categories. The starting point on which this construction is based is a structure Hegel calls Nothing, which I argue to be identical with an empty situation, that is, a situation with no objects in it. Examples of further categories are constructed, firstly, by making previous structures objects of new situations. This rule makes it possible for Hegel to introduce examples of ontological structures that contain objects as constituents. Secondly, Hegel takes also the very constructions he uses as constituents of further structures: thus, he is able to exemplify ontological categories involving causal relations. The final result of Hegel's Logic should then be a model of Hegel s Logic itself, or at least of its basic methods. The second part of the work focuses on the relation of Hegel's Logic to the other parts of Hegel's System. My interpretation tries to avoid, firstly, the extreme of taking Hegel's System as a grand metaphysical attempt to deduce what exists through abstract thinking, and secondly, the extreme of seeing Hegel's System as mere diluted Kantianism or a second-order investigation of theories concerning objects instead of actual objects. I suggest a third manner of reading Hegel's System, based on extending the constructivism of Hegel's Logic to the whole of his philosophical System. According to this interpretation, transitions between parts of Hegel's System should not be understood as proofs of any sort, but as constructions of one structure or its model from another structure. Hence, these transitions involve at least, and especially within the Philosophy of Nature, modelling of one type of object or phenomenon through characteristics of an object or phenomenon of another type, and in the best case, and especially within the Philosophy of Spirit, transformations of an object or phenomenon of one type into an object or phenomenon of another type. Thus, the transitions and descriptions within Hegel's System concern actual objects and not mere theories, but they still involve no fallacious deductions.