903 resultados para Causal attributions


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El comportamiento bienal facultativo de Oenothera biennis representa una limitante para su explotación comercial extensiva. Los individuos de esta especie pueden florecer en la primera estación de crecimiento (ciclo anual) o retrasar su floración hasta la siguiente (ciclo bianual). Este comportamiento estaría modulado por la capacidad endógena de las plantas para responder a las señales ambientales que desencadenan la floración, la cual dependería del logro de un umbral de biomasa. El objetivo de esta tesis fue contribuir al entendimiento de los factores que controlan la floración de Oenothera biennis haciendo énfasis en la relación entre el tamaño de las plantas y su respuesta a las señales inductoras de la reproducción. Se realizaron experimentos en macetas a campo donde se manipularon factores candidatos a inducir la floración (vernalización y fotoperíodo). Se modificó la disponibilidad de nutrientes mediante fertilización mineral, para lograr variabilidad en los indicadores de la condición endógena de las plantas (área y tasa de crecimiento de las rosetas). La vernalización, el fotoperíodo (días largos) y la fertilización redujeron la incidencia de plantas de comportamiento bienal (hasta 25 por ciento respecto al control) y adelantaron la floración entre 3 y 31 días (según tratamiento y condiciones experimentales) en las plantas de comportamiento anual La respuesta a la vernalización fue facultativa y no dependió de una biomasa umbral, ya que se vernalizaron plántulas recién germinadas. La respuesta al fotoperíodo tampoco requirió de un tamaño umbral, pero estuvo condicionada por la tasa de crecimiento de las plantas, la cual fue modulada por la fertilización y el área de las rosetas al inicio de las condiciones fotoinductivas. Se identificó a la incidencia de temperaturas elevadas (T media menor a 25ºC; Tmáx menor a 30ºC), alrededor de la iniciación floral, como un posible factor causal de la bianualidad que inhibiría la reproducción, de una proporción de los individuos, en fechas de siembra tardías. Se concluye que los factores que aceleran el desarrollo (vernalización, fotoperíodos extendidos artificialmente y nutrición mineral) contribuyen indirectamente a reducir la bianualidad, evitando que las condiciones inductivas de la floración coincidan con el período estival de alta temperatura.

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La floración es el resultado de complejas interacciones entre factores ambientales, y está mediada por señales endógenas y por el programa genético de la planta. Las respuestas a la floración fueron poco estudiadas en especies perennes facultativas como la autóctona Lesquerella mendocina, potencial cultivo oleaginoso. El objetivo general fue generar avances en el conocimiento de los mecanismos que regulan la floración en especies herbáceas perennes, utilizando a L. mendocina como objeto de estudio. Se caracterizó el papel de factores que controlan el crecimiento en la regulación del tiempo a floración, encontrándose una asociación entre la adquisición de una tasa de crecimiento Umbral (TCu) y el momento de floración, que resultó ser de naturaleza causal. Se puso en evidencia la participación de las giberelinas en la cascada de eventos que, iniciada por la adquisición de la TCU, desemboca en la iniciación floral. La exposición de las plantas a condiciones que aumentan la tasa de crecimiento (i.e. alta radiación incidente) suprimió la expresión del gen que codifica para la enzima GA2-oxidasa (lo que conduciría a la acumulación de giberelinas activas) y aumentó la proteína codificada por el gen FT. Además, se corroboró un rol positivo de los carbohidratos que actuarían como una señal a distancia para desencadenar la floración. Sobre la base de estos resultados, se elaboró un modelo conceptual para explicar los mecanismos que regulan la transición del estado vegetativo a reproductivo en L. mendocina, que se integra con conocimientos previos acerca del efecto de la temperatura sobre el desencadenamiento de la floración en esta especie. La información obtenida en esta tesis implica un avance en el conocimiento de los mecanismos que controlan la inducción a floración en especies perennes, y además sienta las bases para la puesta en cultivo y diseño de estrategias de manejo de cultivos alternativos con estas características.

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This paper describes a knowledge-based temporal representation of state transitions for industrial real-time systems. To allow expression of uncertainty, we shall define fluents as disjuncts of positive/negative time-varying properties. A state of the world is represented as a collection of fluents, which is usually incomplete in the sense that neither the positive form nor the negative form of some properties can be implied from it. The world under consideration is assumed to persist in a given state until an action(s) takes place to effect a transition of it into another state, where actions may either be instantaneous or durative. High-level causal laws are characterized in terms of relationships between actions and the involved world states. An effect completion axiom is imposed on each causal law to guarantee that all the fluents that can be affected by the performance of the corresponding action are governed. This completion requirement is practical for most industrial real-time applications and in fact provides a simple and effective treatment to the so-called frame problem.

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Temporal relationships between events and their effects are complex. As the effects of a given event, a proposition may change its truth value immediately after the occurrence of the event and remain true until some other events occur, while another proposition may only become true/false from some time after the causal event has occurred. Expressing delayed effects of events has been a problematic question in most existing theories of action and change. This paper presents a new formalism for representing general temporal causal relationships between events and their effects. It allows expressions of both immediate and delayed effects of events, and supports common-sense assertions such as "effects cannot precede their causes".

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This paper presents a simple approach to the so-called frame problem based on some ordinary set operations, which does not require non-monotonic reasoning. Following the notion of the situation calculus, we shall represent a state of the world as a set of fluents, where a fluent is simply a Boolean-valued property whose truth-value is dependent on the time. High-level causal laws are characterised in terms of relationships between actions and the involved world states. An effect completion axiom is imposed on each causal law, which guarantees that all the fluents that can be affected by the performance of the corresponding action are always totally governed. It is shown that, compared with other techniques, such a set operation based approach provides a simpler and more effective treatment to the frame problem.

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This paper introduces a characterization of the so-called most general temporal constraint (GTC), which guarantees the common-sense assertion that "the beginning of the effect cannot precede the beginning of the cause". The formalism is based on general time theory which takes both points and intervals as primitive. It is shown that there are in fact 8 possible causal relationships which satisfy GTC, including cases where, on the one hand, effects start simultaneously with, during, immediately after, or some time after their causes, and on the other hand, events end before, simultaneously with, or after their causes. These causal relationships are versatile enough to subsume those representatives in the literature.

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Analyses the Court of Appeal decision in Powell v Benney on whether in a claim of proprietary estoppel the expectation of a couple that they would receive two properties owned, and promised to them, by a deceased friend was out of proportion to the detriment suffered by them in looking after the friend and improving his properties for their own use. Considers: (1) the approach to be taken to the requirement of a causal link between the assurance given and the conduct constituting the detriment relied on; and (2) consensual arrangements and estoppel equity.

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Introduction: Evidence from studies conducted mainly in the US and mainland Europe suggests that characteristics of the workforce, such as nurse patient ratios and workload (measured in a number of different ways) may be linked to variations in patient outcomes across health care settings (Carmel and Rowan 2001). Few studies have tested this relationship in the UK thus questions remain about whether we are justified in extrapolating evidence from studies conducted in very different health care systems. Objectives: To investigate whether characteristics of the nursing workforce affect patient mortality UK Intensive Care Units. Data: Patient data came from the case mix programme, Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC), while information about the units came from a survey of all ICUs in England (Audit Comission 1998). The merged data set contained information on 43,859 patients in 69 units across England. ICNARC also supplied a risk adjustment variable to control for patient characteristics that are often the most important determinants of survival. Methods: Multivariate multilevel logistic regression. Findings: Higher numbers of direct care nurses and lower scores on measures of workload(proportion of occupied beds at the time the patient was admitted and mean daily transfers into the unit) were associated with lower mortality rates. Furthermore, the effect of the number of direct care nurses was greatest on the life chances of the patients who were most at risk of dying. Implications: This study has wide implications for workforce policy and planning because it shows that the size of the nursing workforce is associated with mortality (West et al 2006). Few studies have demonstrated this relationship in the UK. This study has a number of strengths and weaknesses and further research is required to determine whether this relationship between the nursing workforce and patient outcomes is causal.

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This chapter focuses on what the key decision makers in organizations decide after having received information on the current state of the organizational performance. Because of strong attributions to success and failure, it is impossible to predict in advance which concrete actions will occur. We can however find out what kinds of actions are decided upon by means of an organizational learning model that focuses on the hastenings and delays after performance feedback. As an illustration, the responses to performance signals by trainers and club owners in Dutch soccer clubs are analyzed.

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Calanus helgolandicus over-winters in the shallow waters (100 m) of the Celtic Sea as copepodite stages V and VI; the minimum temperature in winter is approximately 8.0°C. This over-wintering is not a true hibernation or dormacy, accompanied by a reduced metabolic state with a discontinuation of feeding and development, but more of a lowered activity, involving reduced feeding and development, with predation on available microzooplankton and detritus. Analysis of specimens from the winter population showed that copepodite stages V and VI were actively feeding and still producing and possibly liberating eggs. The absence of late nauplii and young copepodites in the water column until late March indicated that there must be a high mortality of these winter cohorts. The copepodites of the first generation appeared in April–May, the younger stages, copepodites I to III, being distributed deeper in the water column below the euphotic zone and thermocline. This distribution would contribute to amuch slower rate of development. By August the ontogenetic vertical distributions observed in the copepodites were reversed, the younger stages occuring in the warmer surface layers within the euphotic zone. Diurnal migrations were observed in the later copepodites only, the younger stages I to III either remaining deep in spring or shallow in summer. The causal mechanisms which alter the behaviour of the young copepodites remain unexplained. The development of the population of Calanus helgolandicus in 1978, reaching its peak of abundance in August, was typical for the shelf seas around U.K. as observed from Continuous Plankton Recorder data, 1958 to 1977.

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During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

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Evidence for climate-correlated low frequency variability of various components of marine ecosystems has accumulated rapidly over the past 2 decades. There has also been a growing recognition that society needs to learn how the fluctuations of these various components are linked, and to predict the likely amplitude and steepness of future changes. Demographic characteristics of marine zooplankton make them especially suitable for examining variability of marine ecosystems at interannual to decadal time scales. Their life cycle duration is short enough that there is little carryover of population membership from year to year, but long enough that variability can be tracked with monthly-to-seasonal sampling. Because zooplankton are rarely fished, comparative analysis of changes in their abundance can greatly enhance our ability to evaluate the importance of and interaction between physical environment, food web, and fishery harvest as causal mechanisms driving ecosystem level changes. A number of valuable within-region analyses of zooplankton time series have been published in the past decade, covering a variety of modes of variability including changes in total biomass, changes in size structure and species composition, changes in spatial distribution, and changes in seasonal timing. But because most zooplankton time series are relatively short compared to the time scales of interest, the statistical power of local analyses is often low, and between-region and between-variable comparisons are also needed. In this paper, we review the results of recent within- and between-region analyses, and suggest some priorities for future work.