The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

Channel Islands marine protected areas first 5 years of monitoring: 2003-2008 [Report produced by the California Department of Fish and Game in collaboration with the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans (PISCO), Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary, and Channel Islands National Park]

The Channel Islands—sometimes called the Galapagos of North America—are known for their great beauty, rich biodiversity, cultural heritage, and recreational opportunities. In 1980, in recognition of the islands’ importance, the United States Congress established a national park encompassing 5 of California’s Channel Islands (Santa Barbara, Anacapa, Santa Cruz, Santa Rosa, and San Miguel Islands) and waters within 1 nautical mile of the islands. In the same year, Congress declared a national marine sanctuary around each of these islands, including waters up to 6 nautical miles offshore. Approximately 60,000 people visit the Channel Islands each year for aquatic recreation such as fishing, sailing, kayaking, wildlife watching, surfing, and diving. Another 30,000 people visit the islands for hiking, camping, and sightseeing. Dozens of commercial fishing boats based in Santa Barbara, Ventura, Oxnard, and other ports go to the Channel Islands to catch squid, spiny lobster, sea urchin, rockfish, crab, sheephead, flatfish, and sea cucumber, among other species. In the past few decades, advances in fishing technology and the rising number of fishermen, in conjunction with changing ocean conditions and diseases, have contributed to declines in some marine fishes and invertebrates at the Channel Islands. In 1998, citizens from Santa Barbara and Ventura proposed establishment of no-take marine reserves at the Channel Islands, beginning a 4-year process of public meetings, discussions, and scientific analyses. In 2003, the California Fish and Game Commission designated a network of marine protected areas (MPAs) in state waters around the northern Channel Islands. In 2006 and 2007, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) extended the MPAs into the national marine sanctuary’s deeper, federal waters. To determine if the MPAs are protecting marine species and habitats, scientists are monitoring ecological changes. They are studying changes in habitats; abundance and size of species of interest; the ocean food web and ecosystem; and movement of fish and invertebrates from MPAs to surrounding waters. Additionally, scientists are monitoring human activities such as commercial and recreational fisheries, and compliance with MPA regulations. This booklet describes some results from the first 5 years of monitoring the Channel Islands MPAs. Although 5 years is not long enough to determine if the MPAs will accomplish all of their goals, this booklet offers a glimpse of the changes that are beginning to take place and illustrates the types of information that will eventually be used to assess the MPAs’ effectiveness. (PDF contains 24 pages.)

Assessment of bursting detection methods with LES database of turbulent channel flows

Validated by comparison with DNS, numerical database of turbulent channel flows is yielded by Large Eddy Simulation (LES). Three conventional techniques: uv quadrant 2, VITA and mu-level techniques for detecting turbulent bursts are applied to the identification of turbulent bursts. With a grouping parameter introduced by Bogard & Tiedemann (1986) or Luchik & Tiederman (1987), multiple ejections detected by these techniques which originate from a single burst can be grouped into a single-burst event. The results are compared with experimental results, showing that all techniques yield reasonable average burst period. However, uv quadrant 2 and mu-level are found to be superior to VITA in having large threshold-independent range.

ROV-based Deep Water Monitoring of the Northern Channel Islands Marine Protected Areas Annual Report - 2007

Research cruises were conducted in August-October 2007 to complete the third annual remotely operated vehicle (ROV)-based assessments of nearshore rocky bottom finfish at ten sites in the northern Channel Islands. Annual surveys at the Channel Islands have been conducted since 2004 at four sites and were expanded to ten sites in 2005 to monitor potential marine protected area (MPA)effects on baseline fish density. Six of the ten sites are in MPAs and four in nearby fished reference areas. In 2007 the amount of soft-only substrate on the 141 track lines surveyed was again estimated in real-time in order to target rocky bottom habitat. These real-time estimates of hard and mixed substrate for all ten sites averaged 57%, 1% more than the post-processed average of 56%. Surveys generated 69.9 km of usable video for use in finfish density calculations, with target rocky bottom habitat accounting for 56% (39.1 km) for all sites combined. The amount of rocky habitat sampled by site averaged 3.8 km and ranged from 3.3 km sampled at South Point, a State Marine Reserve (SMR) off Santa Rosa Island, to 4.7 km at Anacapa Island SMR. A sampling goal of 75 transects at all 10 sites was met using real-time habitat estimates combined with precautionary over-sampling by 10%. A total of seventy kilometers of sampling is projected to produce at least seventy-five 100 m2 transects per site. Thirteen of 26 finfish taxa observed were selected for quantitative evaluation over the time series based on a minimum criterion of abundance (0.05/100 m2). Ten of these 13 finfish appear to be more abundant at the state marine reserves relative to fished areas when densities were averaged across the 2005 to 2007 period. One of the species that appears to be more abundant in fished areas was señorita, a relatively small prey species that is not a commercial or recreational target. (PDF contains 83 pages.)

Diffusive waves in a channel with concentrated lateral inflow

In the current paper an analytical solution for diffusive wave equation with the concentrate-distributed lateral inflow is yielded. Finite-difference numerical method is also employed to validate this model. The backwater effects drawn from lateral inflow on the mainstream are examined finally.

Numerical Study of Heat Transfer Mechanism in Turbulent Supercritical CO2 Channel Flow

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) of supercritical CO2 turbulent channel flow has been performed to investigate the heat transfer mechanism of supercritical fluid. In the present DNS, full compressible Navier-Stokes equations and Peng-Robison state equation are solved. Due to effects of the mean density variation in the wall normal direction, mean velocity in the cooling region becomes high compared with that in the heating region. The mean width between high-and low-speed streaks near the wall decreases in the cooling region, which means that turbulence in the cooling region is enhanced and lots of fine scale eddies are created due to the local high Reynolds number effects. From the turbulent kinetic energy budget, it is found that compressibility effects related with pressure fluctuation and dilatation of velocity fluctuation can be ignored even for supercritical condition. However, the effect of density fluctuation on turbulent kinetic energy cannot be ignored. In the cooling region, low kinematic viscosity and high thermal conductivity in the low speed streaks modify fine scale structure and turbulent transport of temperature, which results in high Nusselt number in the cooling condition of the supercritical CO2.