Towards an improved and more flexible representation of water stress in coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance models

Coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance (A–gs) models are commonly used in ecosystem models to represent the exchange rate of CO2 and H2O between vegetation and the atmosphere. The ways these models account for water stress differ greatly among modelling schemes. This study provides insight into the impact of contrasting model configurations of water stress on the simulated leaf-level values of net photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs), the functional relationship among them and their ratio, the intrinsic water use efficiency (A/gs), as soil dries. A simple, yet versatile, normalized soil moisture dependent function was used to account for the effects of water stress on gs, on mesophyll conductance (gm) and on the biochemical capacity. Model output was compared to leaf-level values obtained from the literature. The sensitivity analyses emphasized the necessity to combine both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations of A in coupled A–gs models to accurately capture the observed functional relationships A vs. gs and A/gsvs. gs in response to drought. Accounting for water stress in coupled A–gs models by imposing either stomatal or biochemical limitations of A, as commonly practiced in most ecosystem models, failed to reproduce the observed functional relationship between key leaf gas exchange attributes. A quantitative limitation analysis revealed that the general pattern of C3 photosynthetic response to water stress may be well represented in coupled A–gs models by imposing the highest limitation strength to gm, then to gs and finally to the biochemical capacity.

How well do coupled models replicate ocean energetics relevant to ENSO?

Accurate replication of the processes associated with the energetics of the tropical ocean is necessary if coupled GCMs are to simulate the physics of ENSO correctly, including the transfer of energy from the winds to the ocean thermocline and energy dissipation during the ENSO cycle. Here, we analyze ocean energetics in coupled GCMs in terms of two integral parameters describing net energy loss in the system using the approach recently proposed by Brown and Fedorov (J Clim 23:1563–1580, 2010a) and Fedorov (J Clim 20:1108–1117, 2007). These parameters are (1) the efficiency c of the conversion of wind power into the buoyancy power that controls the rate of change of the available potential energy (APE) in the ocean and (2) the e-folding rate a that characterizes the damping of APE by turbulent diffusion and other processes. Estimating these two parameters for coupled models reveals potential deficiencies (and large differences) in how state-of-the-art coupled GCMs reproduce the ocean energetics as compared to ocean-only models and data assimilating models. The majority of the coupled models we analyzed show a lower efficiency (values of c in the range of 10–50% versus 50–60% for ocean-only simulations or reanalysis) and a relatively strong energy damping (values of a-1 in the range 0.4–1 years versus 0.9–1.2 years). These differences in the model energetics appear to reflect differences in the simulated thermal structure of the tropical ocean, the structure of ocean equatorial currents, and deficiencies in the way coupled models simulate ENSO.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a coupled climate model

Variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to MOC variations is relatively robust - in pattern if not in magnitude - across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6 years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models.

Upper-ocean heat budget and ocean eddy transport in the south-east Pacific in a high-resolution coupled model

We present an analysis of the oceanic heat advection and its variability in the upper 500 m in the southeastern tropical Pacific (100W–75W, 25S–10S) as simulated by the global coupled model HiGEM, which has one of the highest resolutions currently used in long-term integrations. The simulated climatology represents a temperature advection field arising from transient small-scale (<450 km) features, with structures and transport that appear consistent with estimates based on available observational data for the mooring at 20S, 85W. The transient structures are very persistent (>4 months), and in specific locations they generate an important contribution to the local upper-ocean heat budget, characterised by scales of a few hundred kilometres, and periods of over a year. The contribution from such structures to the local, long-term oceanic heat budget however can be of either sign, or vanishing, depending on the location; and, although there appears some organisation in preferential areas of activity, the average over the entire region is small. While several different mechanisms may be responsible for the temperature advection by transients, we find that a significant, and possibly dominant, component is associated with vortices embedded in the large-scale, climatological salinity gradient associated with the fresh intrusion of mid-latitude intermediate water which penetrates north-westward beneath the tropical thermocline

Tropical Cyclones in a hieararchy of climate models of increasing resolution

Tropical Cyclone (TC) is normally not studied at the individual level with Global Climate Models (GCMs), because the coarse grid spacing is often deemed insufficient for a realistic representation of the basic underlying processes. GCMs are indeed routinely deployed at low resolution, in order to enable sufficiently long integrations, which means that only large-scale TC proxies are diagnosed. A new class of GCMs is emerging, however, which is capable of simulating TC-type vortexes by retaining a horizontal resolution similar to that of operational NWP GCMs; their integration on the latest supercomputers enables the completion of long-term integrations. The UK-Japan Climate Collaboration and the UK-HiGEM projects have developed climate GCMs which can be run routinely for decades (with grid spacing of 60 km) or centuries (with grid spacing of 90 km); when coupled to the ocean GCM, a mesh of 1/3 degrees provides eddy-permitting resolution. The 90 km resolution model has been developed entirely by the UK-HiGEM consortium (together with its 1/3 degree ocean component); the 60 km atmospheric GCM has been developed by UJCC, in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre.

Interactions between the physical soil environment and a horizontal ground coupled heat pump, for a domestic site in the UK

There is currently an increased interest of Government and Industry in the UK, as well as at the European Community level and International Agencies (i.e. Department of Energy, American International Energy Agency), to improve the performance and uptake of Ground Coupled Heat Pumps (GCHP), in order to meet the 2020 renewable energy target. A sound knowledge base is required to help inform the Government Agencies and advisory bodies; detailed site studies providing reliable data for model verification have an important role to play in this. In this study we summarise the effect of heat extraction by a horizontal ground heat exchanger (installed at 1 m depth) on the soil physical environment (between 0 and 1 m depth) for a site in the south of the UK. Our results show that the slinky influences the surrounding soil by significantly decreasing soil temperatures. Furthermore, soil moisture contents were lower for the GCHP soil profile, most likely due to temperature-gradient related soil moisture migration effects and a decreased hydraulic conductivity, the latter as a result of increased viscosity (caused by the lower temperatures for the GCHP soil profile). The effects also caused considerable differences in soil thermal properties. This is the first detailed mechanistic study conducted in the UK with the aim to understand the interactions between the soil, horizontal heat exchangers and the aboveground environment. An increased understanding of these interactions will help to achieve an optimum and sustainable use of the soil heat resources in the future. The results of this study will help to calibrate and verify a simulation model that will provide UK-wide recommendations to improve future GCHP uptake and performance, while safeguarding the soil physical resources.

Precise calculations of the existence of multiple AMOC equilibria in coupled climate models Part I: equilibrium states

This study examines criteria for the existence of two stable states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) using a combination of theory and simulations from a numerical coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model. By formulating a simple collection of state parameters and their relationships, the authors reconstruct the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) OFF state behavior under a varying external salt-flux forcing. This part (Part I) of the paper examines the steady-state solution, which gives insight into the mechanisms that sustain the NADW OFF state in this coupled model; Part II deals with the transient behavior predicted by the evolution equation. The nonlinear behavior of the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) reverse cell is critical to the OFF state. Higher Atlantic salinity leads both to a reduced AAIW reverse cell and to a greater vertical salinity gradient in the South Atlantic. The former tends to reduce Atlantic salt export to the Southern Ocean, while the latter tends to increases it. These competing effects produce a nonlinear response of Atlantic salinity and salt export to salt forcing, and the existence of maxima in these quantities. Thus the authors obtain a natural and accurate analytical saddle-node condition for the maximal surface salt flux for which a NADW OFF state exists. By contrast, the bistability indicator proposed by De Vries and Weber does not generally work in this model. It is applicable only when the effect of the AAIW reverse cell on the Atlantic salt budget is weak.

Parameterisation of orographic cloud dynamics in a GCM

A new parameterisation is described that predicts the temperature perturbations due to sub-grid scale orographic gravity waves in the atmosphere of the 19 level HadAM3 version of the United Kingdom Met Office Unified Model. The explicit calculation of the wave phase allows the sign of the temperature perturbation to be predicted. The scheme is used to create orographic clouds, including cirrus, that were previously absent in model simulations. A novel approach to the validation of this parameterisation makes use of both satellite observations of a case study, and a simulation in which the Unified Model is nudged towards ERA-40 assimilated winds, temperatures and humidities. It is demonstrated that this approach offers a feasible way of introducing large scale orographic cirrus clouds into GCMs.

Coupled atmosphere-biophysics-hydrology models for environmental modeling

The formulation and implementation of LEAF-2, the Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Feedback model, which comprises the representation of land–surface processes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is described. LEAF-2 is a prognostic model for the temperature and water content of soil, snow cover, vegetation, and canopy air, and includes turbulent and radiative exchanges between these components and with the atmosphere. Subdivision of a RAMS surface grid cell into multiple areas of distinct land-use types is allowed, with each subgrid area, or patch, containing its own LEAF-2 model, and each patch interacts with the overlying atmospheric column with a weight proportional to its fractional area in the grid cell. A description is also given of TOPMODEL, a land hydrology model that represents surface and subsurface downslope lateral transport of groundwater. Details of the incorporation of a modified form of TOPMODEL into LEAF-2 are presented. Sensitivity tests of the coupled system are presented that demonstrate the potential importance of the patch representation and of lateral water transport in idealized model simulations. Independent studies that have applied LEAF-2 and verified its performance against observational data are cited. Linkage of RAMS and TOPMODEL through LEAF-2 creates a modeling system that can be used to explore the coupled atmosphere–biophysical–hydrologic response to altered climate forcing at local watershed and regional basin scales.

Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods

A precipitation downscaling method is presented using precipitation from a general circulation model (GCM) as predictor. The method extends a previous method from monthly to daily temporal resolution. The simplest form of the method corrects for biases in wet-day frequency and intensity. A more sophisticated variant also takes account of flow-dependent biases in the GCM. The method is flexible and simple to implement. It is proposed here as a correction of GCM output for applications where sophisticated methods are not available, or as a benchmark for the evaluation of other downscaling methods. Applied to output from reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP) in the region of the European Alps, the method is capable of reducing large biases in the precipitation frequency distribution, even for high quantiles. The two variants exhibit similar performances, but the ideal choice of method can depend on the GCM/reanalysis and it is recommended to test the methods in each case. Limitations of the method are found in small areas with unresolved topographic detail that influence higher-order statistics (e.g. high quantiles). When used as benchmark for three regional climate models (RCMs), the corrected reanalysis and the RCMs perform similarly in many regions, but the added value of the latter is evident for high quantiles in some small regions.

The role of phase separation and feed cycle length in leach beds coupled to methanogenic reactors for digestion of a solid substrate (Part 2): Hydrolysis, acidification and methanogenesis in a two-phase system

The effect of phase separation and batch duration on the trophic stages of anaerobic digestion was assessed for the first time in leach beds coupled to methanogenic reactors digesting maize (Zea mays). The system was operated for consecutive batches of 7, 14 and 28 days for ~120 days. Hydrolysis rate was higher the shorter the batch, reaching 8.5 gTSdestroyed d-1 in the 7-day system. Phase separation did not affect acidification but methanogenesis was enhanced in the short feed cycle leach beds. Phase separation was inefficient on the 7-day system, where ~89% of methane was produced in the leach bed. Methane production rate increased with shortening the feed cycle, reaching 3.523 l d-1 average in the 7-day system. Low strength leachate from the leach beds decreased methanogenic activity of methanogenic reactors’ sludges. Enumeration of cellulolytic and methanogenic microorganisms indicated a constant inoculation of leach beds and methanogenic reactors through leachate recirculation.

The role of phase separation and feed cycle length in leach beds coupled to methanogenic reactors for digestion of a solid substrate (Part 1): Optimisation of reactors’ performance

A two-phase system composed by a leach bed and a methanogenic reactor was modified for the first time to improve volumetric substrate degradation and methane yields from a complex substrate (maize; Zea mays). The system, which was operated for consecutive feed cycles of different durations for 120 days, was highly flexible and its performance improved by altering operational conditions. Daily substrate degradation was higher the shorter the feed cycle, reaching 8.5 g TSdestroyed d�1 (7-day feed cycle) but the overall substrate degradation was higher by up to 55% when longer feed cycles (14 and 28 days) were applied. The same occurred with volumetric methane yields, reaching 0.839 m3 (m3)�1 d�1. The system performed better than others on specific methane yields, reaching 0.434 m3 kg�1 TSadded, in the 14-day and 28-day systems. The UASB and AF designs performed similarly as second stage reactors on methane yields, SCOD and VFA removal efficiencies.

Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: toward weather-resolving climate modeling

Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity is investigated in multiyear global climate simulations with theECMWFIntegrated Forecast System (IFS) at 10-km resolution forced by the observed records of sea surface temperature and sea ice. The results are compared to analogous simulationswith the 16-, 39-, and 125-km versions of the model as well as observations. In the North Atlantic, mean TC frequency in the 10-km model is comparable to the observed frequency, whereas it is too low in the other versions. While spatial distributions of the genesis and track densities improve systematically with increasing resolution, the 10-km model displays qualitatively more realistic simulation of the track density in the western subtropical North Atlantic. In the North Pacific, the TC count tends to be too high in thewest and too low in the east for all resolutions. These model errors appear to be associated with the errors in the large-scale environmental conditions that are fairly similar in this region for all model versions. The largest benefits of the 10-km simulation are the dramatically more accurate representation of the TC intensity distribution and the structure of the most intense storms. The model can generate a supertyphoon with a maximum surface wind speed of 68.4 m s21. The life cycle of an intense TC comprises intensity fluctuations that occur in apparent connection with the variations of the eyewall/rainband structure. These findings suggest that a hydrostatic model with cumulus parameterization and of high enough resolution could be efficiently used to simulate the TC intensity response (and the associated structural changes) to future climate change.