The Emission Trading Scheme reform: will the Commission's proposal save the system? EPC Policy Brief, 29 May 2015

The European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), proposed by the Commission in 2001, entered into force in 2005. It was the flagship instrument of an ambitious policy aiming to reduce the emission of greenhouse gasses in the EU by making emission allowances a freely tradable ‘financial commodity’. However, in recent years, the cracks in the system have begun to show as the price of these CO2 emission allowances has dropped. In this Policy Brief, Jørgen Knud Henningsen argues that the envisaged ETS reform may not be enough to address the system’s shortcomings, and that there should be a more open discussion about its potential if it is to contribute to the EU’s goal of a largely de-carbonised economy by 2050.

Continuous CO2/CH4/CO measurements (2012–2014) at Beromünster tall tower station in Switzerland

The understanding of the continental carbon budget is essential to predict future climate change. In order to quantify CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes at the regional scale, a measurement system was installed at the former radio tower in Beromünster as part of the Swiss greenhouse gas monitoring network (CarboCount CH). We have been measuring the mixing ratios of CO₂, CH₄ and CO on this tower with sample inlets at 12.5, 44.6, 71.5, 131.6 and 212.5 m above ground level using a cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS) analyzer. The first 2-year (December 2012–December 2014) continuous atmospheric record was analyzed for seasonal and diurnal variations and interspecies correlations. In addition, storage fluxes were calculated from the hourly profiles along the tower. The atmospheric growth rates from 2013 to 2014 determined from this 2-year data set were 1.78 ppm yr⁻¹, 9.66 ppb yr⁻¹ and and -1.27 ppb yr⁻¹ for CO₂, CH₄ and CO, respectively. After detrending, clear seasonal cycles were detected for CO₂ and CO, whereas CH₄ showed a stable baseline suggesting a net balance between sources and sinks over the course of the year. CO and CO₂ were strongly correlated (r² > 0.75) in winter (DJF), but almost uncorrelated in summer. In winter, anthropogenic emissions dominate the biospheric CO₂ fluxes and the variations in mixing ratios are large due to reduced vertical mixing. The diurnal variations of all species showed distinct cycles in spring and summer, with the lowest sampling level showing the most pronounced diurnal amplitudes. The storage flux estimates exhibited reasonable diurnal shapes for CO₂, but underestimated the strength of the surface sinks during daytime. This seems plausible, keeping in mind that we were only able to calculate the storage fluxes along the profile of the tower but not the flux into or out of this profile, since no Eddy covariance flux measurements were taken at the top of the tower.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.