Bayesian estimation of small effects in exercise and sports science

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Annual report 2003 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Twelfth meeting, Seoul, Republic of Korea, October 9-18, 2003

Report of Opening Session (pdf 58 KB) Report of Governing Council Meeting (pdf 244 KB) Report of 2003 interim Governing Council meeting Tenth Anniversary PICES Organization Review Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 102 KB) 2002 Auditor's report to the Organization Review of PICES Publication Program Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board/Governing Council interim meeting (pdf 81 KB) Science Board (pdf 95 KB) Study Group on PICES Capacity Building Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 65 KB) Advisory Panel on Micronekton sampling gear intercalibration experiment Advisory Panel on Marine birds and mammals Fishery Science Committee (pdf 41 KB) Working Group 16 on Climate change, shifts to fish production, and fisheries management Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 76 KB) Working Group 15 on Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the North Pacific Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 70 KB) Working Group 17 on Biogeochemical data integration and synthesis Advisory Panel on North Pacific Data Buoy Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 32 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 64 KB) Nemuro Experimental Planning Team (NEXT) BASS Task Team (pdf 35 KB) Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment MODEL Task Team (pdf 29 KB) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 30KB) REX Task Team (pdf 25 KB) Documenting Scientific Sessions (pdf 164 KB) List of Participants (pdf 60 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 21 KB)

Annual report 2002 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Eleventh meeting, Qingdao, People's Republic of China, October 18-16, 2002

Report of Opening Session (pdf 51 KB) Report of Governing Council Meeting(pdf 136 KB) Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 48 KB) Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board (pdf 71 KB) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 66 KB) Working Group 14: Effective sampling of micronekton Marine Birds and Mammals Advisory Panel Fishery Science Committee (pdf 36 KB) Working Group 16: Climate change, shifts to fish production, and fisheries management Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 39 KB) Working Group 15: Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the North Pacific Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 49 KB) North Pacific Data Buoy Advisory Panel Working Group 17: Biogeochemical data integration and synthesis Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 29 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 43 KB) BASS Task Team (pdf 30 KB) Iron Fertilization Experiment Advisory Panel MODEL Task Team (pdf 28 KB) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 34 KB) Summary of Continuous Plankton Recorder activities in 2002 REX Task Team (pdf 21 KB) Documenting Scientific Sessions (pdf 140 KB) List of Participants (pdf 59 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 21 KB)

Annual report 1997 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Sixth meeting, Pusan, Republic of Korea, October 14-26, 1997

Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Meeting Agenda Report of Opening Session Report of Governing Council Meetings Reports of Science Board and Committees Science Board Handbook of Guidelines Working Group 9: Subarctic Pacific Monitoring Report of the Study Group on Communications Biological Oceanography Committee Working Group 11: Consumption of Marine Resources by Marine Birds and Mammals Fishery Science Committee Working Group 12: Crabs and Shrimps Marine Environmental Quality Committee Working Group 8: Practical Assessment Methodology Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee Working Group 10: Circulation and Ventilation in the Japan Sea /East Sea and its Adjacent Areas Technological Committee on Data Exchange Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program Finance and Administration Report of Finance and Administration Committee Assets on 31st of December, 1996 Income and Expenditures for 1996 Budget for 1998 Composition of the Organization Officers, Delegates, Finance and Administration Committee, Science Board, Secretariat, Scientific and Technical Committees List of Participants List of Acronyms (Document has 142 pages.)

Annual report 1995 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Fourth meeting, Qingdao, People's Republic of China, October 16-24, 1995

Report of Opening Session Report of Governing Council Meetings Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board Biological Oceanography Committee Fishery Science Committee Marine Environmental Quality Committee Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee Technological Committee on Data Exchange Finance and Administration: Report of the Finance and Administration Committee Assets on 31st of December, 1994 Income and Expenditures for 1994 Budget for 1996 Composition of the Organization List of Participants List of Acronyms (Document has 96 pages.)

Southern California Baseline Studies and Analysis: 1975-1978. Master Table of Contents

This is only the table of contents for a series of technical reports done from 1975-1978. The papers were done on contract for BLM by a number of universities and consulting firms such as Science Applications, Inc., University of Southern California, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, and various campuses of University of California and California State University. (PDF contains 36 pages)

The use of freshwater science in policy development

This article explores the diversity of scientific disciplines and paradigms, their relevance for policy development, how policy emerges throughout society,-and the mechanisms by which scientists can promote the value of science in policy formation. The author gives examples from various countries where freshwater science was used to inform policy.

John Nathan Cobb (1868–1930): Founding Director of the College of Fisheries, University of Washington, Seattle

John Nathan Cobb (1868–1930) became the founding Director of the College of Fisheries, University of Washington, Seattle, in 1919 without the benefit of a college education. An inquisitive and ambitious man, he began his career in the newspaper business and was introduced to commercial fisheries when he joined the U.S. Fish Commission (USFC) in 1895 as a clerk, and he was soon promoted to a “Field Agent” in the Division of Statistics, Washington, D.C. During the next 17 years, Cobb surveyed commercial fisheries from Maine to Florida, Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and Alaska for the USFC and its successor, the U.S. Bureau of Fisheries. In 1913, he became editor of the prominent west coast trade magazine, Pacific Fisherman, of Seattle, Wash., where he became known as a leading expert on the fisheries of the Pacific Northwest. He soon joined the campaign, led by his employer, to establish the nation’s first fisheries school at the University of Washington. After a brief interlude (1917–1918) with the Alaska Packers Association in San Francisco, Calif., he was chosen as the School’s founding director in 1919. Reflecting his experience and mindset, as well as the University’s apparent initial desire, Cobb established the College of Fisheries primarily as a training ground for those interested in applied aspects of the commercial fishing industry. Cobb attracted sufficient students, was a vigorous spokesman for the College, and had ambitions plans for expansion of the school’s faculty and facilities. He became aware that the College was not held in high esteem by his faculty colleagues or by the University administration because of the school’s failure to emphasize scholastic achievement, and he attempted to correct this deficiency. Cobb became ill with heart problems in 1929 and died on 13 January 1930. The University soon thereafter dissolved the College and dismissed all but one of its faculty. A Department of Fisheries, in the College of Science, was then established in 1930 and was led by William Francis Thompson (1888–1965), who emphasized basic science and fishery biology. The latter format continues to the present in the Department’s successor, The School of Aquatic Fisheries and Science.

Charles Henry Gilbert (1859-1928), Naturalist-in-Charge: the 1906 North Pacific Expedition of the Steamer Albatross

Fishery science pioneers often faced challenges in their field work that are mostly unknown to modern biologists. Some of the travails faced by ichthyologist and, later, fishery biologist Charles Henry Gilbert (1859-1928) during his service as Naturalist-in-Charge of the North Pacific cruise ofthe U.S. Bureau of Fisheries Steamer Albatross in 1906, are described here, as are accomplishments of the cruise. The vessel left San Francisco, Calif., on 3 May 1906, just after the great San Francisco earthquake, for scientific exploration of waters of the Aleutian islands, Bering Sea, Kamchatka, Sakhalin, and Japan, returning to San Francisco in December. Because the expedition occurred just after the war between Japan and Russia of 1904-05 floating derelict mines in Japanese waters were often a menace. Major storms caused havoc in the region, and the captain of the Albatross, Lieutenant Commander LeRoy Mason Garrett (1857-1906), U.S.N., was lost at sea, apparently thrown from the vessel during a sudden storm on the return leg of the cruise. Despite such obstacles, Gilbert and the Albatross successfully completed their assigned chores. They occupied 339 dredging and 48 hydrographic stations, and discovered over 180 new species of fishes and many new species of invertebrates. The expedition's extensive biological collections spawned over 30 descriptive publications, some of which remain today as standards of knowledge.

Centennial Lecture I: History and Contributions of the Woods Hole Fisheries Laboratory

The genesis and the early history of the Woods Hole Laboratory (WHL), to a lesser extent the Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL), and to some degree the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), were elegantly covered by Paul S. Galtsoff (1962) in his BCF Circular "The Story of the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts." It covers the period from the beginning in 1871 to 1958. Galtsoffs more than 35-year career in the fishery service was spent almost entirely in Woods Hole. I will only briefly touch on that portion of the Laboratory's history covered by Galtsoff. Woods Hole, as a center of marine science, was conceived and implemented largely by one man, Spencer Fullerton Baird, at that time Assistant Secretary of the Smithsonian and who was also instrumental in the establishment of the National Museum and Permanent Secretary of the newly established American Association for the Advancement of Science. He was appointed by President Ulysses S. Grant in 1871 as the first U.S. Commissioner of Fisheries. Fisheries research began here as early as 1871, but a permanent station did not exist until 1885.

Using drift nets to capture early life stages and monitor spawning of the Yangtze River Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis)

P>A sampling system for capturing sturgeon eggs using a D-shaped bottom anchored drift net was used to capture early life stages (ELS) of Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis, and monitor annual spawning success at Yichang on the Yangtze River, 1996-2004, before and just after the Three Gorges Dam began operation. Captured were 96 875 ELS (early life stages: eggs, yolk-sac larvae = eleuthero embryos, and larvae); most were eggs and only 2477 were yolk-sac larvae. Most ELS were captured in the main river channel and inside the bend at the Yichang spawning reach. Yolk-sac larvae were captured for a maximum of 3 days after hatching began, indicating quick dispersal downstream. The back-calculated day of egg fertilization over the eight years indicated a maximum spawning window of 23 days (20 October-10 November). Spawning in all years was restricted temporally, occurred mostly at night and during one or two spawning periods, each lasting several days. The brief temporal spawning window may reduce egg predation by opportunistic predators by flooding the river bottom with millions of eggs. During 1996-2002, the percentage of fertilized eggs in an annual 20-egg sample was between 63.5 to 94.1%; however, in 2003 the percentage fertilized was only 23.8%. This sudden decline may be related to the altered environmental conditions at Yichang caused by operation of the Three Gorges Dam. Further studies are needed to monitor spawning and changes in egg fertilization in this threatened population.

Field emission from the structure of well-aligned TiO2/Ti nanotube arrays

Well-aligned TiO2/Ti nanotube arrays were synthesized by anodic oxidation of titanium foil in 0.5 wt.% HF in various anoclization voltages. The images of filed emission scanning electron microscopy indicate that the nanotubes structure parameters, such as diameter, wall thickness and density, can be controlled by adjusting the anoclization voltage. The peaks at 25.3 degrees and 48.0 degrees of X-ray diffraction pattern illuminate that the TiO2 nanotube arrays annealed at 500 degrees C are mainly in anatase phase. The filed emission (FE) properties of the samples were investigated. A turn-on electric field 7.8 V/mu m, a field enhancement factors approximately 870 and a highest FE current density 3.4 mA/cm(2) were obtained. The emission current (2.3 mA/cm(2) at 18.8 V/mu m) was quite stable within 480 min. The results show that the FE properties of TiO2/Ti have much relation to the structure parameters.

Synthesis and field emission of diamond-like carbon nanorods on TiO2/Ti nanotube arrays

Highly ordered TiO2/Ti nanotube arrays were fabricated by anodic oxidation method in 0.5 wt% HF. Using prepared TiO2/Ti nanotube arrays deposited Ni nanoparticles as substrate, high quality diamond-like carbon nanorods (DLCNRs) were synthesized by a conventional method of chemical vapor deposition at 750 degrees C in nitrogen atmosphere. DLCNRs were analyzed by filed emission scanning electron microscopy and Raman spectrometer. It is very interesting that DLCNRs possess pagoda shape with the length of 3-10 mu m. Raman spectra show two strong peaks about 1332 cm (1) and 1598 cm (1), indicating the formation of diamond-like carbon. The field emission measurements suggest that DLCNRs/TiO2/Ti has excellent field emission properties, a low turn-on field about 3.0 V/mu m, no evident decay at 3.4 mA/cm(2) in 480 min. (C) 2009 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

The development of a model of continuing professional development for teachers of primary science

A new science curriculum was introduced to primary schools in the Republic of Ireland in 2003. This curriculum, broader in scope than its 1971 predecessor (Curaclam na Bunscoile, 1971), requires teachers at all levels of primary school to teach science. A review carried out in 2008 of children’s experiences of this curriculum found that its implementation throughout the country was uneven. This finding, together with the increasing numbers of teachers who were requesting support to implement this curriculum, suggested the need for a review of Irish primary teachers’ needs in the area of science. The research study described in this thesis was undertaken to establish the extent of Irish primary teachers’ needs in the area of science by conducting a national survey. The data from this survey, together with data from international studies, were used to develop a theoretical framework for a model of Continuing Professional Development (CPD). This theoretical framework was used to design the Whole- School, In-School (WSIS) CPD model which was trialled in two case-study schools. The participants in these ‘action-research’ case-studies acted as co-researchers, who contributed to the development and evolution of the CPD model in each school. Analysis of the data gathered as part of the evaluation of the Whole-School, In- School (WSIS) model of CPD found an improved experience of science for children and improved confidence for teachers teaching at all levels of the primary school. In addition, a template for the establishment of a culture of collaborative CPD in schools has been developed from an analysis of the data

Oceans and Human Health (OHH): a European Perspective from the Marine Board of the European Science Foundation (Marine Board-ESF)

The oceans and coastal seas provide mankind with many benefits including food for around a third of the global population, the air that we breathe and our climate system which enables habitation of much of the planet. However, the converse is that generation of natural events (such as hurricanes, severe storms and tsunamis) can have devastating impacts on coastal populations, while pollution of the seas by pathogens and toxic waste can cause illness and death in humans and animals. Harmful effects from biogenic toxins produced by algal blooms (HABs) and from the pathogens associated with microbial pollution are also a health hazard in seafood and from direct contact with water. The overall global burden of human disease caused by sewage pollution of coastal waters has been estimated at 4 million lost person-years annually. Finally, the impacts of all of these issues will be exacerbated by climate change. A holistic systems approach is needed. It must consider whole ecosystems, and their sustainability, such as integrated coastal zone management, is necessary to address the highly interconnected scientific challenges of increased human population pressure, pollution and over-exploitation of food (and other) resources as drivers of adverse ecological, social and economic impacts. There is also an urgent and critical requirement for effective and integrated public health solutions to be developed through the formulation of politically and environmentally meaningful policies. The research community required to address "Oceans & Human Health" in Europe is currently very fragmented, and recognition by policy makers of some of the problems, outlined in the list of challenges above, is limited. Nevertheless, relevant key policy issues for governments worldwide include the reduction of the burden of disease (including the early detection of emerging pathogens and other threats) and improving the quality of the global environment. Failure to effectively address these issues will impact adversely on efforts to alleviate poverty, sustain the availability of environmental goods and services and improve health and social and economic stability; and thus, will impinge on many policy decisions, both nationally and internationally. Knowledge exchange (KE) will be a key element of any ensuing research. KE will facilitate the integration of biological, medical, epidemiological, social and economic disciplines, as well as the emergence of synergies between seemingly unconnected areas of science and socio-economic issues, and will help to leverage knowledge transfer across the European Union (EU) and beyond. An integrated interdisciplinary systems approach is an effective way to bring together the appropriate groups of scientists, social scientists, economists, industry and other stakeholders with the policy formulators in order to address the complexities of interfacial problems in the area of environment and human health. The Marine Board of the European Science Foundation Working Group on "Oceans and Human Health" has been charged with developing a position paper on this topic with a view to identifying the scientific, social and economic challenges and making recommendations to the EU on policy-relevant research and development activities in this arena. This paper includes the background to health-related issues linked to the coastal environment and highlights the main arguments for an ecosystem-based whole systems approach.