A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

A demonstration of artificial dissipation effects in some finite volume solution methods for the Navier-Stokes equations

The artificial dissipation effects in some solutions obtained with a Navier-Stokes flow solver are demonstrated. The solvers were used to calculate the flow of an artificially dissipative fluid, which is a fluid having dissipative properties which arise entirely from the solution method itself. This was done by setting the viscosity and heat conduction coefficients in the Navier-Stokes solvers to zero everywhere inside the flow, while at the same time applying the usual no-slip and thermal conducting boundary conditions at solid boundaries. An artificially dissipative flow solution is found where the dissipation depends entirely on the solver itself. If the difference between the solutions obtained with the viscosity and thermal conductivity set to zero and their correct values is small, it is clear that the artificial dissipation is dominating and the solutions are unreliable.

A shift from passive teaching at medical conferences to more interactive methods improves physician learning

Conferences that deliver interactive sessions designed to enhance physician participation, such as role play, small discussion groups, workshops, hands-on training, problem- or case-based learning and individualised training sessions, are effective for physician education.

Appropriate surveying methods in the Philippines: Can modern GPS units help?

An investigation was undertaken to test the effectiveness of two procedures for recording boundaries and plot positions for scientific studies on farms on Leyte Island, the Philippines. The accuracy of a Garmin 76 Global Positioning System (GPS) unit and a compass and chain was checked under the same conditions. Tree canopies interfered with the ability of the satellite signal to reach the GPS and therefore the GPS survey was less accurate than the compass and chain survey. Where a high degree of accuracy is required, a compass and chain survey remains the most effective method of surveying land underneath tree canopies, providing operator error is minimised. For a large number of surveys and thus large amounts of data, a GPS is more appropriate than a compass and chain survey because data are easily up-loaded into a Geographic Information System (GIS). However, under dense canopies where satellite signals cannot reach the GPS, it may be necessary to revert to a compass survey or a combination of both methods.

Insulin-regulatable phosphoproteins in 3T3-L1 adipocytes form detergent-insoluble complexes not associated with caveolin

Whole body glucose homeostasis is dependent on the action of insulin. In muscle and adipose tissues, insulin stimulates glucose uptake by inducing the translocation of vesicles containing the glucose transporter GLUT4 to the cell surface. While the mechanisms of insulin-regulated GLUT4 translocation are not fully understood, some signaling intermediates have been implicated in this process. Interestingly, som: of these intermediates, including IRS-1 and PI3K, have been localised to the same intracellular membrane fraction as the GLUT4 storage pool, designated here as the high-speed pellet (HSP) fraction. This raises the possibility that many of the downstream insulin signaling intermediates may be located within close proximity to intracellular GLUT4. The goal of this study was to test this hypothesis in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. A large proportion of adipocyte phosphoproteins co-fractionated in the HSP fraction. In an attempt to resolve insulin-regulatable phosphoproteins, we subjected P-32-labeled subcellular fractions to two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE). Insulin reproducibly stimulated the phosphorylation of 12 spots in the HSP fraction. Most of the HSP phosphoproteins were insoluble in the nonionic detergent Triton X-100, whereas integral membrane proteins such as GLUT4 and intracellular caveolin were soluble under the same conditions. These results suggest that insulin-regulatable phosphoproteins in adipocytes may be organized in microdomains within the cell and that this assembly may act as an efficient conductor of the signaling proteins to rapidly facilitate downstream biological responses. Further study is required to establish the molecular basis for these detergent-insoluble signaling complexes.

The effect of water fluoridation on the bone mineral density of young women [Saskatoon study]

Introduction: Osteogenic effects of therapeutic fluoride have been reported; however, the impact of exposure to low level water fluoridation on bone density is not clear. We investigated the effect of long-term exposure to fluoridated water from growth to young adulthood on bone mineral density (BMD). Methods: BMD was measured in 24 healthy women from Regina (fluoride 0.1 mg/L) and 33 from Saskatoon (fluoride 1.0 mg/L), with no differences between groups for height, weight, lifestyle or dietary factors. Results: Saskatoon women had significantly higher mean BMD at total anterior-posterior lumbar spine (APS) and estimated volumetric L3 (VLS), with no difference at total body (TB) or proximal femur (PF). Conclusion: Exposure to water fluoridation during the growing years may have a power impact on axial spine bone density in young women.

Bioelectrical impedance analysis for the estimation of body composition in rats

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) was used to assess body composition in rats fed on either standard laboratory diet or on a high-fat diet designed to induce obesity. Bioelectrical impedance analysis predictions of total body water and thus fat-free mass (FFM) for the group mean values were generally within 5% of the measured values by tritiated water ((H2O)-H-3) dilution. The limits of agreement for the procedure were, however, large, approximately +/-25%, limiting the applicability of the technique for measurement of body composition in individual animals.

Improved methods for predicting individual leaf area and leaf senescence in maize (Zea mays)

The ability to predict leaf area and leaf area index is crucial in crop simulation models that predict crop growth and yield. Previous studies have shown existing methods of predicting leaf area to be inadequate when applied to a broad range of cultivars with different numbers of leaves. The objectives of the study were to (i) develop generalised methods of modelling individual and total plant leaf area, and leaf senescence, that do not require constants that are specific to environments and/or genotypes, (ii) re-examine the base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence, and (iii) assess the method of calculation of individual leaf area from leaf length and leaf width in experimental work. Five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and adaptation were planted in October 1994 in south-eastern Queensland, and grown under non-limiting conditions of water and plant nutrient supplies. Additional data for maize plants with low total leaf number (12-17) grown at Katumani Research Centre, Kenya, were included to extend the range in the total leaf number per plant. The equation for the modified (slightly skewed) bell curve could be generalised for modelling individual leaf area, as all coefficients in it were related to total leaf number. Use of coefficients for individual genotypes can be avoided, and individual and total plant leaf area can be calculated from total leaf number. A single, logistic equation, relying on maximum plant leaf area and thermal time from emergence, was developed to predict leaf senescence. The base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence were 8, 34, and 40 degrees C, and apply for the whole crop-cycle when used in modelling of leaf senescence. Thus, the modelling of leaf production and senescence is simplified, improved, and generalised. Consequently, the modelling of leaf area index (LAI) and variables that rely on LAI will be improved. For experimental purposes, we found that the calculation of leaf area from leaf length and leaf width remains appropriate, though the relationship differed slightly from previously published equations.

Two-body and three-body abrasion: A critical discussion

It is argued that the common classification of abrasive wear into 'two-body abrasion' and 'three-body abrasion' is seriously flawed. No definitions have been agreed upon for these terms, and indeed there are two quite different interpretations, the implications of which are mutually inconsistent. In the dominant interpretation, the primary thrust of the two-body/three-body concept is to describe whether the abrasive particles are constrained (two-body) or free to roll (three-body). In this view, two-body abrasion is generally much more severe than three-body. The alternative interpretation emphasises the presence (three-body) or absence (two-body) of a rigid counterface backing the abrasive. In this view, three-body abrasion is equated to high-stress (or grinding) abrasion and is generally more severe than two-body (low-stress) abrasion. This paper recommends that the 'two-body/three-body' terminology be abandoned, to be replaced by an alternative classification scheme based directly upon the manifest severity of wear. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A.

Bioimpedance spectrometry in the determination of body water compartments: Accuracy and clinical significance

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) offers the potential for a simple, portable and relatively inexpensive technique for the in vivo measurement of total body water (TBW). The potential of BIA as a technique of body composition analysis is even greater when one considers that body water can be used as a surrogate measure of lean body mass. However, BIA has not found universal acceptance even with the introduction of multi-frequency BIA (MFBIA) which, potentially, may improve the predictive accuracy of the measurement. There are a number of reasons for this lack of acceptance, although perhaps the major reason is that no single algorithm has been developed which can be applied to all subject groups. This may be due, in part, to the commonly used wrist-to-ankle protocol which is not indicated by the basic theory of bioimpedance, where the body is considered as five interconnecting cylinders. Several workers have suggested the use of segmental BIA measurements to provide a protocol more in keeping with basic theory. However, there are other difficulties associated with the application of BIA, such as effects of hydration and ion status, posture and fluid distribution. A further putative advantage of MFBIA is the independent assessment not only of TBW but also of the extracellular fluid volume (ECW), hence heralding the possibility of,being able to assess the fluid distribution between these compartments. Results of studies in this area have been, to date, mixed. Whereas strong relationships of impedance values at low frequencies with ECW, and at high frequencies with TBW, have been reported, changes in impedance are not always well correlated with changes in the size of the fluid compartments (assessed by alternative and more direct means) in pathological conditions. Furthermore, the theoretical advantages of Cole-Cole modelling over selected frequency prediction have not always been apparent. This review will consider the principles, methodology and applications of BIA. The principles and methodology will,be considered in relation to the basic theory of BIA and difficulties experienced in its application. The relative merits of single and multiple frequency BIA will be addressed, with particular attention to the latter's role in the assessment of compartmental fluid volumes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Velocimetry and thermometry of supersonic flow around a cylindrical body

The supersonic flow around a cylindrical body has been studied using two optical techniques. For both sets of measurements, the cylinder was mounted from the side of the tunnel, allowing investigation of the bow shock region as well as in the wake. A new technique, laser-enhanced ionization flow tagging, was used for streamwise velocity determinations behind the body. From these measurements, it was found that the downstream velocity outside the wake was (1.90 +/- 0.06) km/s, whereas inside the wake the velocity was about 0-500 m/s in the upstream direction. Planar laser induced fluorescence of nitric oxide was employed for temperature determinations. It was established that the freestream temperature was (2120 +/- 100) K, decreasing to around (1550 +/- 400) K in the wake.

Data analysis in multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis

The performance of three analytical methods for multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) data was assessed. The methods were the established method of Cole and Cole, the newly proposed method of Siconolfi and co-workers and a modification of this procedure. Method performance was assessed from the adequacy of the curve fitting techniques, as judged by the correlation coefficient and standard error of the estimate, and the accuracy of the different methods in determining the theoretical values of impedance parameters describing a set of model electrical circuits. The experimental data were well fitted by all curve-fitting procedures (r = 0.9 with SEE 0.3 to 3.5% or better for most circuit-procedure combinations). Cole-Cole modelling provided the most accurate estimates of circuit impedance values, generally within 1-2% of the theoretical values, followed by the Siconolfi procedure using a sixth-order polynomial regression (1-6% variation). None of the methods, however, accurately estimated circuit parameters when the measured impedances were low (<20 Omega) reflecting the electronic limits of the impedance meter used. These data suggest that Cole-Cole modelling remains the preferred method for the analysis of MFBIA data.

The 1.1 angstrom resolution crystal structure of [Tyr(15)]EpI, a novel alpha-conotoxin from Conus episcopatus, solved by direct methods

Conotoxins are valuable probes of receptors and ion channels because of their small size and highly selective activity. alpha-Conotoxin EpI, a 16-residue peptide from the mollusk-hunting Conus episcopatus, has the amino acid sequence GCCSDPRCNMNNPDY(SO3H)C-NH2 and appears to be an extremely potent and selective inhibitor of the alpha 3 beta 2 and alpha 3 beta 4 neuronal subtypes of the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR). The desulfated form of EpI ([Tyr(15)]EpI) has a potency and selectivity for the nAChR receptor similar to those of EpI. Here we describe the crystal structure of [Tyr(15)]EpI solved at a resolution of 1.1 Angstrom using SnB. The asymmetric unit has a total of 284 non-hydrogen atoms, making this one of the largest structures solved de novo try direct methods. The [Tyr(15)]EpI structure brings to six the number of alpha-conotoxin structures that have been determined to date. Four of these, [Tyr(15)]EpI, PnIA, PnIB, and MII, have an alpha 4/7 cysteine framework and are selective for the neuronal subtype of the nAChR. The structure of [Tyr(15)]EpI has the same backbone fold as the other alpha 4/7-conotoxin structures, supporting the notion that this conotoxin cysteine framework and spacing give rise to a conserved fold. The surface charge distribution of [Tyr(15)]EpI is similar to that of PnIA and PnIB but is likely to be different from that of MII, suggesting that [Tyr(15)]EpI and MII may have different binding modes for the same receptor subtype.