Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Proadrenomedullin: An effective prognostic biomarker in septic patients

Background: Measurement of biomarkers is a potential approach to early prediction of mortality in septic patients. The purpose of this study was to asses the prognostic value of proadrenomedullin (pADM) in adult patients with sepsis with a single measurement in the first 24 hours after the onset of severe sepsis or septic shock. Conclusions: The protein pADM is an important prognostic biomarker of survival when measured on admission of septic patients to the ICU.

The expression level of BAALC-associated microRNA miR-3151 is an independent prognostic factor in younger patients with cytogenetic intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous disease whose prognosis is mainly related to the biological risk conferred by cytogenetics and molecular profiling. In elderly patients (60 years) with normal karyotype AML miR-3151 have been identified as a prognostic factor. However, miR-3151 prognostic value has not been examined in younger AML patients. In the present work, we have studied miR-3151 alone and in combination with BAALC, its host gene, in a cohort of 181 younger intermediate-risk AML (IR-AML) patients. Patients with higher expression of miR-3151 had shorter overall survival (P=0.0025), shorter leukemia-free survival (P=0.026) and higher cumulative incidence of relapse (P=0.082). Moreover, in the multivariate analysis miR-3151 emerged as independent prognostic marker in both the overall series and within the unfavorable molecular prognostic category. Interestingly, the combined determination of both miR-3151 and BAALC improved this prognostic stratification, with patients with low levels of both parameters showing a better outcome compared with those patients harboring increased levels of one or both markers (P=0.003). In addition, we studied the microRNA expression profile associated with miR-3151 identifying a six-microRNA signature. In conclusion, the analysis of miR-3151 and BAALC expression may well contribute to an improved prognostic stratification of younger patients with IR-AML.

Modelling the cardiovascular system for automatic interpretation of the blood pressure curve

A four compartment model of the cardiovascular system is developed. To allow for easy interpretation and to minimise the number of parameters, an effort was made to keep the model as simple as possible. A sensitivity analysis is first carried out to determine which are the most important model parameters to characterise the blood pressure signal. A four stage process is then described which accurately determines all parameter values. This process is applied to data from three patients and good agreement is shown in all cases.

The biochemistry of drug metabolism-an introduction: part 7. Intra-individual factors affecting drug metabolism.

This review on intra-individual factors affecting drug metabolism completes our series on the biochemistry of drug metabolism. The article presents the molecular mechanisms causing intra-individual differences in enzyme expression and activity. They include enzyme induction by transcriptional activation and enzyme inhibition on the protein level. The influencing factors are of physiological, pathological, or external origin. Tissue characteristics and developmental age strongly influence enzyme-expression patterns. Further influencing factors are pregnancy, disease, or biological rhythms. Xenobiotics, drugs, constituents of herbal remedies, food constituents, ethanol, and tobacco can all influence enzyme expression or activity and, hence, affect drug metabolism.

Modelling changes in stable isotope compositions of minerals during net transfer reactions in a contact aureole: Wollastonite growth at the northern Hunter Mountain Batholith (Death Valley National Park, USA)

One of the world's largest wollastonite deposits was formed at the contact of the northern Hunter Mountain Batholith (California, USA) in Paleozoic sediments. Wollastonite occurs as zones of variable thickness surrounding layers or nodules of quartzite in limestones. A minimum formation temperature of 650 degrees C is estimated from isolated periclase-bearing lenses in that area. Contact metamorphism of siliceous carbonates has produced mineral assemblages that are consistent with heterogeneous, and partly limited infiltration of water-rich fluids, compatible with O-18/O-16 and C-13/C-12 isotopic patterns recorded in carbonates. Oxygen isotope compositions of wollastonites in the study area may also not require infiltration of large quantities of externally-derived fluids that were out of equilibrium with the rocks. 8180 values of wollastonite are high (14.8 parts per thousand to 25.0 parts per thousand; median: 19.7 parts per thousand) and close to those of the host limestone (19.7 parts per thousand to 28 parts per thousand; median: 24.9 parts per thousand) and quartz (18.0 parts per thousand. to 29.1 parts per thousand; median: 22.6 parts per thousand). Isotopic disequilibrium exists at quartz/wollastonite and wollastonite/calcite boundaries. Therefore, classical batch/Rayleigh fractionation models based on reactant and product equilibrium are not applicable to the wollastonite rims. An approach that relies on local instantaneous mass balance for the reactants, based on the wollastonite-forming reaction is suggested as an alternative way to model wollastonite reaction rims. This model reproduces many of the measured delta O-18 values of wollastonite reaction rims of the current study to within +/- 1 parts per thousand, even though the wollastonite compositions vary by almost 10 parts per thousand. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic redox dysregulation induces behavioural deficits in the adult mouse: an animal model for schizophrenia

Background: Glutathione (GSH), a major cellular redox regulator and antioxidant, is decreased in cerebrospinal fluid and prefrontal cortex of schizophrenia patients. The gene of the key GSH-synthesizing enzyme, glutamate-cysteine ligase, modifier (GCLM) subunit, is associated with schizophrenia, suggesting that the deficit in the GSH system is of genetic origin. Using the GCLM knock-out (KO) mouse as model system with 60% decreased brain GSH levels and, thus, strong vulnerability to oxidative stress, we have shown that GSH dysregulation results in abnormal mouse brain morphology (e.g., reduced parvalbumin, PV, immuno-reactivity in frontal areas) and function. Additional oxidative stress, induced by GBR12909 (a dopamine re-uptake inhibitor), enhances morphological changes even further. Aim: In the present study we use the GCLM KO mouse model system, asking now, whether GSH dysregulation also compromises mouse behaviour and cognition. Methods: Male and female wildtype (WT) and GCLM-KO mice are treated with GBR12909 or phosphate buffered saline (PBS) from postnatal day (P) 5 to 10, and are behaviourally tested at P 60 and older. Results: In comparison to WT, KO animals of both sexes are hyperactive in the open field, display more frequent open arm entries on the elevated plus maze, longer float latencies in the Porsolt swim test, and more frequent contacts of novel and familiar objects. Contrary to other reports of animal models with reduced PV immuno-reactivity, GCLM-KO mice display normal rule learning capacity and perform normally on a spatial recognition task. GCLM-KO mice do, however, show a strong deficit in object-recognition after a 15 minutes retention delay. GBR12909 treatment exerts no additional effect. Conclusions: The results suggest that animals with impaired regulation of brain oxidative stress are impulsive and have reduced behavioural control in novel, unpredictable contexts. Moreover, GSH dysregulation seems to induce a selective attentional or stimulus-encoding deficit: despite intensive object exploration, GCLM-KO mice cannot discriminate between novel and familiar objects. In conclusion, the present data indicate that GSH dysregulation may contribute to the manifestation of behavioural and cognitive anomalies that are associated with schizophrenia.

Open minded and open access: introducing NeoBiota, a new peer-reviewed journal of biological invasions

The Editorial presents the focus, scope, policies, and the inaugural issue of NeoBiota, a new open access peer-reviewed journal of biological invasions. The new journal NeoBiota is a continuation of the former NEOBIOTA publication series. The journal will deal with all aspects of invasion biology and impose no restrictions on manuscript size neither on use of color. NeoBiota implies an XML-based editorial workflow and several cutting-edge innovations in publishing and dissemination, such as semantic markup of and enhancements to published texts, data publication, and extensive cross-linking within the journal and to external sources

Quantifying ChIP-seq data: a spiking method providing an internal reference for sample-to-sample normalization.

Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by deep sequencing (ChIP-seq) experiments are widely used to determine, within entire genomes, the occupancy sites of any protein of interest, including, for example, transcription factors, RNA polymerases, or histones with or without various modifications. In addition to allowing the determination of occupancy sites within one cell type and under one condition, this method allows, in principle, the establishment and comparison of occupancy maps in various cell types, tissues, and conditions. Such comparisons require, however, that samples be normalized. Widely used normalization methods that include a quantile normalization step perform well when factor occupancy varies at a subset of sites, but may miss uniform genome-wide increases or decreases in site occupancy. We describe a spike adjustment procedure (SAP) that, unlike commonly used normalization methods intervening at the analysis stage, entails an experimental step prior to immunoprecipitation. A constant, low amount from a single batch of chromatin of a foreign genome is added to the experimental chromatin. This "spike" chromatin then serves as an internal control to which the experimental signals can be adjusted. We show that the method improves similarity between replicates and reveals biological differences including global and largely uniform changes.

Using environmental niche modeling to understand biological invasions in a changing world

L'activité humaine affecte particulièrement la biodiversité, qui décline à une vitesse préoccupante. Parmi les facteurs réduisant la biodiversité, on trouve les espèces envahissantes. Symptomatiques d'un monde globalisé où l'échange se fait à l'échelle de la planète, certaines espèces, animales ou végétales, sont introduites, volontairement ou accidentellement par l'activité humaine (par exemple lors des échanges commerciaux ou par les voyageurs). Ainsi, ces espèces atteignent des régions qu'elles n'auraient jamais pu coloniser naturellement. Une fois introduites, l'absence de compétiteur peut les rendre particulièrement nuisibles. Ces nuisances sont plus ou moins directes, allant de problèmes sanitaires (p. ex. les piqûres très aigües des fourmis de feu, originaires d'Amérique du Sud et colonisant à une vitesse fulgurante les USA, l'Australie ou la Chine) à des nuisances sur la biodiversité (p. ex. les ravages de la perche du Nil sur la diversité unique des poissons Cichlidés du Lac Victoria). Il est donc important de pouvoir prévenir de telles introductions. De plus, pour le biologiste, ces espèces représentent une rare occasion de pouvoir comprendre les mécanismes évolutifs et écologiques qui expliquent le succès des envahissantes dans un monde où les équilibres sont bouleversés. Les modèles de niche environnementale sont un outil particulièrement utile dans le cadre de cette problématique. En reliant des observations d'espèces aux conditions environnementales où elles se trouvent, ils peuvent prédire la distribution potentielle des envahissantes, permettant d'anticiper et de mieux limiter leur impact. Toutefois, ils reposent sur des hypothèses pas évidentes à démontrer. L'une d'entre elle étant que la niche d'une espèce reste constante dans le temps, et dans l'espace. Le premier objectif de mon travail est de comparer si la niche d'une espèce envahissante diffère entre sa distribution d'origine native et celle d'origine introduite. En étudiant 50 espèces de plantes et 168 espèces de Mammifères, je démontre que c'est le cas et que par corolaire, il est possible de prédire leurs distributions. La deuxième partie de mon travail consiste à comprendre quelles seront les interactions entre le changement climatiques et les envahissantes, afin d'estimer leur impact sous un climat réchauffé. En étudiant la distribution de 49 espèces de plantes envahissantes, je démontre que les montagnes, régions relativement préservée par ce problème, deviendront bien plus exposées aux risques d'invasions biologiques. J'expose aussi comment les interactions entre l'activité humaine, le réchauffement climatique et les espèces envahissantes menacent la vigne sauvage en Europe et propose des zones géographiques particulièrement adaptée pour sa conservation. Enfin, à une échelle beaucoup plus locale, je montre qu'il est possible d'utiliser ces modèles de niches le long d'une rivière à une échelle extrêmement fine (1 mètre), potentiellement utile pour rationnaliser des mesures de conservations sur le terrain. - Biodiversity is significantly negatively affected by human activity. Invasive species are one of the most important factors causing biodiversity's decline. Intimately linked to the era of global trade, some plant or animal species can be accidentally or casually introduced with human activity (e.g. trade or travel). In this way, these species reach areas they could never reach through natural dispersal. Once naturalized, the lack of competitors can make these species highly noxious. Their effect is more or less direct, from sanitary problems (e.g. the harmful sting of Fire Ants, originating from South America and now spreading throughout USA, China and Australia) or can affect biodiversity (e.g. the Nile perch, devastating the one of the richest hotspot of Cichlid fishes diversity in Lake Victoria). It is thus important to prevent such harmful introductions. Moreover, invasive species represent for biologists one of the rare occasions to understand the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms behind the success of invaders in a world where natural equilibrium is already disturbed. Environmental niche models are particularly useful to tackle this problematic. By relating species observation to the environmental conditions where they occur, they can predict the potential distribution of invasive species, allowing a better anticipation and thus limiting their impact. However, they rely on strong assumption, one of the most important being that the modeled niche remains constant through space and time. The first aim of my thesis is to quantify the difference between the native and the invaded niche. By investigating 50 plant and 168 mammal species, I show that the niche is at least partially conserved, supporting for reliable predictions of invasive' s potential distributions. The second aim of my thesis is to understand the possible interactions between climate change and invasive species, such as to assess their impact under a warmer climate. By studying 49 invasive plant species, I show that mountain areas, which were relatively preserved, will become more suitable for biological invasions. Additionally, I show how interactions between human activity, global warming and invasive species are threatening the wild grapevine in Europe and propose geographical areas particularly adapted for conservation measures. Finally, at a much finer scale where conservation plannings ultimately take place, I show that it is possible to model the niche at very high resolution (1 meter) in an alluvial area allowing better prioritizations for conservation.

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

An exquisite cross-control mechanism among endothelial cell fate regulators directs the plasticity and heterogeneity of lymphatic endothelial cells.

Arteriovenous-lymphatic endothelial cell fates are specified by the master regulators, namely, Notch, COUP-TFII, and Prox1. Whereas Notch is expressed in the arteries and COUP-TFII in the veins, the lymphatics express all 3 cell fate regulators. Previous studies show that lymphatic endothelial cell (LEC) fate is highly plastic and reversible, raising a new concept that all 3 endothelial cell fates may co-reside in LECs and a subtle alteration can result in a reprogramming of LEC fate. We provide a molecular basis verifying this concept by identifying a cross-control mechanism among these cell fate regulators. We found that Notch signal down-regulates Prox1 and COUP-TFII through Hey1 and Hey2 and that activated Notch receptor suppresses the lymphatic phenotypes and induces the arterial cell fate. On the contrary, Prox1 and COUP-TFII attenuate vascular endothelial growth factor signaling, known to induce Notch, by repressing vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-2 and neuropilin-1. We show that previously reported podoplanin-based LEC heterogeneity is associated with differential expression of Notch1 in human cutaneous lymphatics. We propose that the expression of the 3 cell fate regulators is controlled by an exquisite feedback mechanism working in LECs and that LEC fate is a consequence of the Prox1-directed lymphatic equilibrium among the cell fate regulators.

Use of an in-house approach to study the three-dimensional structures of various outer membrane proteins: structure of the alcaligin outer membrane transporter FauA from Bordetella pertussis.

Bordetella pertussis is the bacterial agent of whooping cough in humans. Under iron-limiting conditions, it produces the siderophore alcaligin. Released to the extracellular environment, alcaligin chelates iron, which is then taken up as a ferric alcaligin complex via the FauA outer membrane transporter. FauA belongs to a family of TonB-dependent outer membrane transporters that function using energy derived from the proton motive force. Using an in-house protocol for membrane-protein expression, purification and crystallization, FauA was crystallized in its apo form together with three other TonB-dependent transporters from different organisms. Here, the protocol used to study FauA is described and its three-dimensional structure determined at 2.3 A resolution is discussed.

Poly-epsilon-caprolactone intravitreous devices: an in vivo study.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term safety and pharmacokinetic profile of a dexamethasone-loaded poly-epsilon-caprolactone (PCL) intravitreous implant. METHODS: The PCL devices were prepared by compression and were inserted into the vitreous of pigmented rabbits. At different time points, vitreous samples were retrieved, and dexamethasone concentration was analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography. The biodegradation of the implants was evaluated by scanning electron microscopy, and the dexamethasone remaining was evaluated at the end of follow-up. Clinical and histologic examinations were performed to evaluate the implant's tolerance. RESULTS: The PCL implant allows for a controlled and prolonged delivery of dexamethasone in rabbits eyes since it released the drug within the therapeutic range for at least 55 weeks. At 55 weeks approximately 79% of the drug was still present in the implant. Biodegradation study showed that PCL implants degradation is very slow. Clinical and histologic observations showed that the devices were very well tolerated in the rabbit eye. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility and tolerance of intravitreous PCL drug delivery systems, which can offer a wide range of applications for intraocular drug delivery because of their controlled and prolonged release over months or even years.