Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008

Objectives: To investigate seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008.
Methods: 23 population-based registers recorded date of diagnosis in new cases of clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years. Completeness of ascertainment was assessed through capture-recapture methodology and was high in most centres. A general test for seasonal variation (11df) and Edward's test for sinusoidal (sine wave) variation (2df) were employed. Time series methods were also used to investigate if meteorological data were predictive of monthly counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.
Results: Significant seasonal variation was apparent in all but two small centres, with an excess of cases apparent in the winter quarter. Significant sinusoidal pattern was also evident in all but two small centres with peaks in December (14 centres), January (5 centres) or February (2 centres). Relative amplitude varied from ±11% to ±39% (median ±18%). There was no relationship across the centres between relative amplitude and incidence level. However there was evidence of significant deviation from the sinusoidal pattern in the majority of centres. Pooling results over centres, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, but with significantly less variation in those aged under 5 years. Boys showed marginally greater seasonal variation than girls. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four sub-periods of the 20 year period. In most centres monthly counts of cases were not associated with deviations from normal monthly average temperature or sunshine hours; short term meteorological variations do not explain numbers of cases diagnosed.
Conclusions: Seasonality with a winter excess is apparent in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5s show less marked variation. The seasonal pattern changed little in the 20 year period.

A morphologic and autoradiographic study of cell death and regeneration in the retinal microvasculature of normal and diabetic rats

Cell loss and regeneration were investigated and compared in the retinal microvasculature of age- and sex-matched normal and streptozotocin diabetic rats. Selective pericyte loss in the diabetic rat was characterized by changes in the pericyte to endothelial cell ratio in retinal capillaries isolated for microscopy by the trypsin digest technique. A comparison of 3- and 9-month-old normal rats showed no significant change in the pericyte to endothelial cell ratio (1:2.7). In diabetic animals the ratio was reduced to 1:4.03, which was statistically significant (P less than .001). Premitotic retinal vascular cells in normal and diabetic rats were labelled with tritiated thymidine and the labelling indices calculated from cell counts of trypsin digest preparations. Methyl H3 thymidine was infused continuously over an eight-day period using osmotic mini pumps. The labelling index of endothelial cells (0.33%) in normal rats increased to 0.91% in diabetic animals (P less than .05). The labelling index of pericyte cells in normal animals (0.16%) did not increase significantly (P greater than .05) in diabetic animals (0.19%). A special stain was used to exclude labelled polymorphonuclear leukocytes from the cell counts.

Effect of high pressure processing in combination with Weissella viridescens as a protective culture against Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat salads of different pH

This study explored the effect of HPP (400 MPa/1 min) and a Weissella viridescens protective culture, alone or in conjunction, against Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) salads with different pH values (4.32 and 5.59) during storage at 4 and 12 °C. HPP was able to reduce the counts of the pathogen after treatment achieving approximately a 4.0 and 1.5 log CFU/g reduction in the low and higher pH RTE salad, respectively. However, L. monocytogenes was able to recover and grow during subsequent storage. W. viridescens grew in both RTE salads at both storage temperatures, with HPP resulting in only a small immediate reduction of W. viridescens ranging from 0.50 to 1.2 log CFU/g depending on the pH of the RTE salad. For the lower pH RTE salad, the protective culture was able to gradually reduce the L. monocytogenes counts during storage whereas for the higher pH RTE salad in some cases it delayed growth significantly or exerted a bacteriostatic effect. exerted a bacteriostatic effect. The results revealed that the increased storage temperature led to an increase in the inactivation/inhibition of L. monocytogenes in the presence of W. viridescens. The combination of HPP and W. viridescens is a promising strategy to control L. monocytogenes and can increase safety even when a break in the chill chain occurs.

The prevalence of refractive errors among adults in the United States, Western Europe, and Australia.

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the prevalence of refractive errors in persons 40 years and older.

METHODS:

Counts of persons with phakic eyes with and without spherical equivalent refractive error in the worse eye of +3 diopters (D) or greater, -1 D or less, and -5 D or less were obtained from population-based eye surveys in strata of gender, race/ethnicity, and 5-year age intervals. Pooled age-, gender-, and race/ethnicity-specific rates for each refractive error were applied to the corresponding stratum-specific US, Western European, and Australian populations (years 2000 and projected 2020).

RESULTS:

Six studies provided data from 29 281 persons. In the US, Western European, and Australian year 2000 populations 40 years or older, the estimated crude prevalence for hyperopia of +3 D or greater was 9.9%, 11.6%, and 5.8%, respectively (11.8 million, 21.6 million, and 0.47 million persons). For myopia of -1 D or less, the estimated crude prevalence was 25.4%, 26.6%, and 16.4% (30.4 million, 49.6 million, and 1.3 million persons), respectively, of whom 4.5%, 4.6%, and 2.8% (5.3 million, 8.5 million, and 0.23 million persons), respectively, had myopia of -5 D or less. Projected prevalence rates in 2020 were similar.

CONCLUSIONS:

Refractive errors affect approximately one third of persons 40 years or older in the United States and Western Europe, and one fifth of Australians in this age group.

Significance of Biogenic Amines in Cold-Smoked Fish and Their Relation to Microbiological Characteristics of Products Available in Portuguese Retail Markets

Studies on microbial characterization of cold-smoked salmon and salmon trout during cold storage were performed on samples available in the Portuguese market. Samples were also classified microbiologically according to guidelines for ready-to-eat (RTE) products. Further investigations on sample variability and microbial abilities to produce tyramine and histamine were also performed. The coefficient of variation for viable counts of different groups of microorganisms of samples collected at retail market point was high in the first 2 wk of storage, mainly in the Enterobacteriaceae group and aerobic plate count (APC), suggesting that microbiological characteristics of samples were different in numbers, even within the same batch from the same producer. This variation seemed to be decreased when storage and temperature were controlled under lab conditions. The numbers of Enterobacteriaceae were influenced by storage temperature, as indicated by low microbial numbers in samples from controlled refrigeration. Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) and Enterobacteriaceae were predominant in commercial products, a significant percentage of which were tyramine and less histamine producers. These results might be influenced by (1) the technological processes in the early stages of production, (2) contamination during the smoking process, and (3) conditions and temperature fluctuations during cold storage at retail market point of sale.

Estimation of State Space Models and Stochastic Volatility

Ma thèse est composée de trois chapitres reliés à l'estimation des modèles espace-état et volatilité stochastique. Dans le première article, nous développons une procédure de lissage de l'état, avec efficacité computationnelle, dans un modèle espace-état linéaire et gaussien. Nous montrons comment exploiter la structure particulière des modèles espace-état pour tirer les états latents efficacement. Nous analysons l'efficacité computationnelle des méthodes basées sur le filtre de Kalman, l'algorithme facteur de Cholesky et notre nouvelle méthode utilisant le compte d'opérations et d'expériences de calcul. Nous montrons que pour de nombreux cas importants, notre méthode est plus efficace. Les gains sont particulièrement grands pour les cas où la dimension des variables observées est grande ou dans les cas où il faut faire des tirages répétés des états pour les mêmes valeurs de paramètres. Comme application, on considère un modèle multivarié de Poisson avec le temps des intensités variables, lequel est utilisé pour analyser le compte de données des transactions sur les marchés financières. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous proposons une nouvelle technique pour analyser des modèles multivariés à volatilité stochastique. La méthode proposée est basée sur le tirage efficace de la volatilité de son densité conditionnelle sachant les paramètres et les données. Notre méthodologie s'applique aux modèles avec plusieurs types de dépendance dans la coupe transversale. Nous pouvons modeler des matrices de corrélation conditionnelles variant dans le temps en incorporant des facteurs dans l'équation de rendements, où les facteurs sont des processus de volatilité stochastique indépendants. Nous pouvons incorporer des copules pour permettre la dépendance conditionnelle des rendements sachant la volatilité, permettant avoir différent lois marginaux de Student avec des degrés de liberté spécifiques pour capturer l'hétérogénéité des rendements. On tire la volatilité comme un bloc dans la dimension du temps et un à la fois dans la dimension de la coupe transversale. Nous appliquons la méthode introduite par McCausland (2012) pour obtenir une bonne approximation de la distribution conditionnelle à posteriori de la volatilité d'un rendement sachant les volatilités d'autres rendements, les paramètres et les corrélations dynamiques. Le modèle est évalué en utilisant des données réelles pour dix taux de change. Nous rapportons des résultats pour des modèles univariés de volatilité stochastique et deux modèles multivariés. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous évaluons l'information contribuée par des variations de volatilite réalisée à l'évaluation et prévision de la volatilité quand des prix sont mesurés avec et sans erreur. Nous utilisons de modèles de volatilité stochastique. Nous considérons le point de vue d'un investisseur pour qui la volatilité est une variable latent inconnu et la volatilité réalisée est une quantité d'échantillon qui contient des informations sur lui. Nous employons des méthodes bayésiennes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov pour estimer les modèles, qui permettent la formulation, non seulement des densités a posteriori de la volatilité, mais aussi les densités prédictives de la volatilité future. Nous comparons les prévisions de volatilité et les taux de succès des prévisions qui emploient et n'emploient pas l'information contenue dans la volatilité réalisée. Cette approche se distingue de celles existantes dans la littérature empirique en ce sens que ces dernières se limitent le plus souvent à documenter la capacité de la volatilité réalisée à se prévoir à elle-même. Nous présentons des applications empiriques en utilisant les rendements journaliers des indices et de taux de change. Les différents modèles concurrents sont appliqués à la seconde moitié de 2008, une période marquante dans la récente crise financière.

Comparative effectiveness of solar disinfection using small-scale batch reactors with reflective, absorptive and transmissive rear surfaces

This study investigated the enhancement of solar disinfection using custom-made batch reactors with reflective (foil-backed) or absorptive (black-backed) rear surfaces, under a range of weather conditions in India. Plate counts of Escherichia coli ATCC11775 were made under aerobic conditions and under conditions where reactive oxygen species (ROS) were neutralised, i.e. in growth medium supplemented with 0.05% w/v sodium pyruvate plus incubation under anaerobic conditions. While the addition of either an absorptive or a reflective backing enhanced reactor performance under strong sunlight, the reflective reactor was the only system to show consistent enhancement under low sunlight, where the process was slowest. Counts performed under ROS-neutralised conditions were slightly higher than those in air, indicating that a fraction of the cells become sub-lethally injured during exposure to sunlight to the extent that they were unable to grow aerobically. However, the influence of this phenomenon on the dynamics of inactivation was relatively small

Horizontal nutrient fluxes and production efficiencies in urban and peri-urban crop and livestock husbandry of Niamey, Niger

Urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) increasingly supplies food and non-food values to the rapidly growing West African cities. However, little is known about the resource use efficiencies in West African small-scale UPA crop and livestock production systems, and about the benefits that urban producers and retailers obtain from the cultivation and sale of UPA products. To contribute to filling this gap of knowledge, the studies comprising this doctoral thesis determined nutrient use efficiencies in representative urban crop and livestock production system in Niamey, Niger, and investigated potential health risks for consumers. Also assessed was the economic efficiency of urban farming activities. The field study, which was conducted during November 2005 to January 2008, quantified management-related horizontal nutrient flows in 10 vegetable gardens, 9 millet fields and 13 cattle and small ruminant production units. These farms, selected on the basis of a preceding study, represented the diversity of UPA crop and livestock production systems in Niamey. Based on the management intensity, the market orientation and especially the nutrient input to individual gardens and fields, these were categorized as high or low input systems. In the livestock study, high and low input cattle and small ruminant units were differentiated based on the amounts of total feed dry matter offered daily to the animals at the homestead. Additionally, economic returns to gardeners and market retailers cultivating and selling amaranth, lettuce, cabbage and tomato - four highly appreciated vegetables in Niamey were determined during a 6-months survey in forty gardens and five markets. For vegetable gardens and millet fields, significant differences in partial horizontal nutrient balances were determined for both management intensities. Per hectare, average annual partial balances for carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) amounted to 9936 kg C, 1133 kg N, 223 kg P and 312 kg K in high input vegetable gardens as opposed to 9580 kg C, 290 kg N, 125 kg P and 351 kg K in low input gardens. These surpluses were mainly explained by heavy use of mineral fertilizers and animal manure to which irrigation with nutrient rich wastewater added. In high input millet fields, annual surpluses of 259 kg C ha-1, 126 kg N ha-1, 20 kg P ha-1 and 0.4 kg K ha-1 were determined. Surpluses of 12 kg C ha-1, 17 kg N ha-1, and deficits of -3 kg P ha-1 and -3 kg K ha-1 were determined for low input millet fields. Here, carbon and nutrient inputs predominantly originated from livestock manure application through corralling of sheep, goats and cattle. In the livestock enterprises, N, P and K supplied by forages offered at the farm exceeded the animals’ requirements for maintenance and growth in high and low input sheep/goat as well as cattle units. The highest average growth rate determined in high input sheep/goat units was 104 g d-1 during the cool dry season, while a maximum average gain of 70 g d-1 was determined for low input sheep/goat units during the hot dry season. In low as well as in high input cattle units, animals lost weight during the hot dry season, and gained weight during the cool dry season. In all livestock units, conversion efficiencies for feeds offered at the homestead were rather poor, ranging from 13 to 42 kg dry matter (DM) per kg live weight gain (LWG) in cattle and from 16 to 43 kg DM kg-1 LWG in sheep/goats, pointing to a substantial waste of feeds and nutrients. The economic assessment of the production of four high value vegetables pointed to a low efficiency of N and P use in amaranth and lettuce production, causing low economic returns for these crops compared to tomato and cabbage to which inexpensive animal manure was applied. The net profit of market retailers depended on the type of vegetable marketed. In addition it depended on marketplace for amaranth and lettuce, and on season and marketplace for cabbage and tomato. Analysis of faecal pathogens in lettuce irrigated with river water and fertilized with animal manure indicated a substantial contamination by Salmonella spp. with 7.2 x 104 colony forming units (CFU) per 25 g of produce fresh matter, while counts of Escherichia coli averaged 3.9 x 104 CFU g-1. In lettuce irrigated with wastewater, Salmonella counts averaged 9.8 x 104 CFU 25 g-1 and E. coli counts were 0.6 x 104 CFU g-1; these values exceeded the tolerable contamination levels in vegetables of 10 CFU g-1 for E. coli and of 0 CFU 25 g-1 for Salmonella. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that Niamey’s UPA enterprises put environmental safety at risk since excess inputs of N, P and K to crop and livestock production units favour N volatilisation and groundwater pollution by nutrient leaching. However, more detailed studies are needed to corroborate these indications. Farmers’ revenues could be significantly increased if nutrient use efficiency in the different production (sub)systems was improved by better matching nutrient supply through fertilizers and feeds with the actual nutrient demands of plants and animals.

Effect of management strategies on the performance of ruminant livestock production systems and the safety of plant and animal products in the city of Sikasso, Mali

The regional population growth in West Africa, and especially its urban centers, will bring about new and critical challenges for urban development policy, especially in terms of ensuring food security and providing employment for the growing population. (Peri-) urban livestock and vegetable production systems, which can contribute significantly to these endeavours, are limited by various constraints, amongst them limited access to expensive production factors and their (in)efficient use. To achieve sustainable production systems with low consumer health risks, that can meet the urban increased demand, this doctoral thesis determined nutrient use efficiencies in representative (peri-) urban livestock production systems in three West African cities, and investigated potential health risks for consumers ensuing from there. The field study, which was conducted during July 2007 to December 2009, undertook a comparative analysis of (peri-) urban livestock production strategies across 210 livestock keeping households (HH) in the three West African cities of Kano/Nigeria (84 HH), Bobo Dioulasso/Burkina Faso (63 HH) and Sikasso/Mali (63 HH). These livestock enterprises were belonging to the following three farm types: commercial gardening plus field crops and livestock (cGCL; 88 HH), commercial livestock plus subsistence field cropping (cLsC; 109 HH) and commercial gardening plus semi-commercial livestock (cGscL; 13 HH) which had been classified in a preceding study; they represented the diversity of (peri-) urban livestock production systems in West Africa. In the study on the efficiency of ruminant livestock production, lactating cowsand sheep herd units were differentiated based on whether feed supplements were offered to the animals at the homestead (Go: grazing only; Gsf: mainly grazing plus some supplement feeding). Inflows and outflows of nutrients were quantified in these herds during 18 months, and the effects of seasonal variations in nutrient availability on animals’ productivity and reproductive performance was determined in Sikasso. To assess the safety of animal products and vegetables, contamination sources of irrigated lettuce and milk with microbiological contaminants, and of tomato and cabbage with pesticide residues in (peri-) urban agriculture systems of Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso were characterized at three occasions in 2009. Samples of irrigation water, organic fertilizer and ix lettuce were collected in 6 gardens, and samples of cabbage and tomato in 12 gardens; raw and curdled milk were sampled in 6 dairy herds. Information on health risks for consumers of such foodstuffs was obtained from 11 health centers in Sikasso. In (peri-) urban livestock production systems, sheep and goats dominated (P<0.001) in Kano compared to Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso, while cattle and poultry were more frequent (P<0.001) in Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso than in Kano. Across cities, ruminant feeding relied on grazing and homestead supplementation with fresh grasses, crop residues, cereal brans and cotton seed cake; cereal grains and brans were the major ingredients of poultry feeds. There was little association of gardens and livestock; likewise field cropping and livestock were rarely integrated. No relation existed between the education of the HH head and the adoption of improved management practices (P>0.05), but the proportion of HH heads with a long-term experience in (peri-) urban agriculture was higher in Kano and in Bobo Dioulasso than in Sikasso (P<0.001). Cattle and sheep fetched highest market prices in Kano; unit prices for goats and chicken were highest in Sikasso. Animal inflow, outflow and dairy herd growth rates were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the Gsf than in the Go cattle herds. Maize bran and cottonseed expeller were the main feeds offered to Gsf cows as dry-season supplement, while Gsf sheep received maize bran, fresh grasses and cowpea pods. The short periodic transhumance of Go dairy cows help them maintaining their live weight, whereas Gsf cows lost weight during the dry season despite supplement feeding at a rate of 1506 g dry matter per cow and day, resulting in low productivity and reproductive performance. The daily live weight gains of calves and lambs, respectively, were low and not significantly different between the Go and the Gsf system. However, the average live weight gains of lambs were significantly higher in the dry season (P<0.05) than in the rainy season because of the high pressure of gastrointestinal parasites and of Trypanosoma sp. In consequence, 47% of the sheep leaving the Go and Gsf herds died due to diseases during the study period. Thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli contamination levels of irrigation water significantly exceeded WHO recommendations for the unrestricted irrigation of vegetables consumed raw. Microbial contamination levels of lettuce at the farm gate and the market place in Bobo Dioulasso and at the farm gate in Sikasso were higher than at the market place in Sikasso (P<0.05). Pesticide residues were detected in only one cabbage and one tomato sample and were below the maximum residue limit for consumption. Counts of thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli were higher in curdled than in raw milk (P<0.05). From 2006 to x 2009, cases of diarrhea/vomiting and typhoid fever had increased by 11% and 48%, respectively, in Sikasso. For ensuring economically successful and ecologically viable (peri-) urban livestock husbandry and food safety of (peri-) urban foodstuffs of animal and plant origin, the dissemination and adoption of improved feeding practices, livestock healthcare and dung management are key. In addition, measures fostering the safety of animal products and vegetables including the appropriate use of wastewater in (peri-) urban agriculture, restriction to approve vegetable pesticides and the respect of their latency periods, and passing and enforcement of safety laws is required. Finally, the incorporation of environmentally sound (peri-) urban agriculture in urban planning by policy makers, public and private extension agencies and the urban farmers themselves is of utmost importance. To enable an efficient (peri-) urban livestock production in the future, research should concentrate on cost-effective feeding systems that allow meeting the animals’ requirement for production and reproduction. Thereby focus should be laid on the use of crop-residues and leguminous forages. The improvement of the milk production potential through crossbreeding of local cattle breeds with exotic breeds known for their high milk yield might be an accompanying option, but it needs careful supervision to prevent the loss of the local trypanotolerant purebreds.

Determination of the impact of continuous defoliation of Lolium perenne and Trifolium repens on bacterial and fungal community structure in rhizosphere soil

To determine the effects of defoliation on microbial community structure, rhizosphere soil samples were taken pre-, and post-defoliation from the root tip and mature root regions of Trifolium repens L. and Lolium perenne L. Microbial DNA isolated from samples was used to generate polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis molecular profiles of bacterial and fungal communities. Bacterial plate counts were also obtained. Neither plant species nor defoliation affected the bacterial and fungal community structures in both the root tip and mature root regions, but there were significant differences in the bacterial and fungal community profiles between the two root regions for each plant. Prior to defoliation, there was no difference between plants for bacterial plate counts of soils from the root tip regions; however, counts were greater in the mature root region of L. perenne than T. repens. Bacterial plate counts for T. repens were higher in the root tip than the mature root region. After defoliation, there was no effect of plant type, position along the root or defoliation status on bacterial plate counts, although there were significant increases in bacterial plate counts with time. The results indicate that a general effect existed during maturation in the root regions of each plant, which had a greater impact on microbial community structure than either plant type or the effect of defoliation. In addition there were no generic consequences with regard to microbial populations in the rhizosphere as a response to plant defoliation.

Some general comparative points on Chao’s and Zelterman’s estimators of population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

A longitudinal study of sero-conversion to tick-borne pathogens in smallholder dairy youngstock in Tanzania

A longitudinal study of sero-conversion of youngstock to the tick-borne pathogens Theileria parva, T mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and B. bovis was conducted over two years on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga region, Tanzania. There was evidence of maternal antibodies to all tick-borne pathogens in animals less than 18 weeks of age. Seroprevalence increased as expected with age in animals older than this but seroprevalence profiles underestimated the force of infection due to waning antibody levels between samplings. By the end of the 2-year study, less than 50% of study animals had seroconverted to each of the tick-borne pathogens investigated, consistent with the low levels of tick attachment observed on the study animals. Some associations between seroconversion to tick-borne pathogens, and counts of their known tick vectors on the animals, were identified as expected. However, some were not, suggesting that counts of some tick species may act as an index of rates of attachment of other vector species. Variation in acaricide treatment frequencies was not associated with variations in tick-borne pathogen seroprevalence suggesting that acaricides may be used more frequently than necessary on many farms. Most animals were zero-grazed, a management system associated with a significantly lower likelihood that animals seroconverted to any tick-borne pathogen exceptA. marginale. Seroprevalence varied locally with farm location (particularly for Babesia spp.) but was not well predicted by indices of ecological conditions. Our findings suggest that attempts to achieve a state of 'endemic stability' for tick-bome pathogens may be unreasonable on the smallholder dairy farms studied but reductions in the frequency of use of acaricides may be possible following prospective studies of effects on mortality and morbidity due to tick-bome pathogens. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Some general comparative points on Chao's and Zelterman's estimators of the population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

The use of image analysis to estimate population growth rate in Daphnia magna

1. Population growth rate (PGR) is central to the theory of population ecology and is crucial for projecting population trends in conservation biology, pest management and wildlife harvesting. Furthermore, PGR is increasingly used to assess the effects of stressors. Image analysis that can automatically count and measure photographed individuals offers a potential methodology for estimating PGR. 2. This study evaluated two ways in which the PGR of Daphnia magna, exposed to different stressors, can be estimated using an image analysis system. The first method estimated PGR as the ratio of counts of individuals obtained at two different times, while the second method estimated PGR as the ratio of population sizes at two different times, where size is measured by the sum of the individuals' surface areas, i.e. total population surface area. This method is attractive if surface area is correlated with reproductive value (RV), as it is for D. magna, because of the theoretical result that PGR is the rate at which the population RV increases. 3. The image analysis system proved reliable and reproducible in counting populations of up to 440 individuals in 5 L of water. Image counts correlated well with manual counts but with a systematic underestimate of about 30%. This does not affect accuracy when estimating PGR as the ratio of two counts. Area estimates of PGR correlated well with count estimates, but were systematically higher, possibly reflecting their greater accuracy in the study situation. 4. Analysis of relevant scenarios suggested the correlation between RV and body size will generally be good for organisms in which fecundity correlates with body size. In these circumstances, area estimation of PGR is theoretically better than count estimation. 5. Synthesis and applications. There are both theoretical and practical advantages to area estimation of population growth rate when individuals' reproductive values are consistently well correlated with their surface areas. Because stressors may affect both the number and quality of individuals, area estimation of population growth rate should improve the accuracy of predicting stress impacts at the population level.

Hepatozoon griseisciuri in grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis): changes of blood leucocyte numbers resulting from infection

Numbers of leucocytes in squirrels with gametocytes of Hepatozoon in their blood (infected) were compared with animals without gametocytes (uninfected). Typical values for leucocytes/mm(3) blood in uninfected squirrels were: leucocytes 5-7 x 10(3), granulocytes 3-4 x 10(3), lymphocytes 2-0 x 10(3) and monocytes 0-3 x 10(3) cells. Infection caused an increase in monocytes, lymphocytes and granulocytes, and there was a significant positive association between parasitaemia level and numbers of both total leucocytes and monocytes. Infected animals had more uninfected monocytes/mm(3) blood than did uninfected animals. The proportions of monocytes were more variable over time in infected animals, but no shift between infected and uninfected status was detected. Transfer of serum from infected squirrels to mice resulted in elevated counts of total blood leucocytes, monocytes and granulocytes, but not of lymphocytes, as compared with controls. Serum from squirrels with high parasitaemias had a more marked effect than serum from squirrels with low parasitaemias. Results indicate an infection - related monocytosis, possibly controlled by cytokines, that increases the number of cells available for invasion by gametocytes, thus enhancing the chances of parasite transmission.