Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cervical screening: population-based comparisons between self-reported survey and registry-derived Pap test rates

Objective: To compare self-reported cervical screening rates, as recorded in the 1998 NSW Health Survey, with registry-based cervical screening rates for NSW for the same period; and to examine factors associated with over-estimates of cervical screening rates by self-report. Methods: Self-reported cervical screening data was extracted from the 1998 NSW Health Survey, biennial screening rates estimated and compared with biennial cervical screening rates for 1997-98, as recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register (PTR). Rates and differences were related to socio-demographic characteristics of the 17 Area Health Services of NSW. Results: According to the 1998 NSW Health Survey, 74% of women reported having a Pap test during the previous two years. The equivalent rate recorded on the NSW PTR for 1997-98 was 62% (p

Decreased perinatal sunshine duration is associated with increased non-affective but not affective psychosis birth rates

We have previously found an association between variations in schizophrenia birth rates and varyinglevels of perinatal sunshine duration. This study examines whether such an association can also be found for Ža. affective psychosis, and Žb. broadly defined nonaffective psychoses. Data for individuals born between 1931 and 1970 in Australia with ICD9 Other PsychosisŽ295–299.were obtained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System. ‘Affective psychosis’ included affective psychosis, schizo-affective psychosis, and depressive and excitative non-organic psychoses. ‘Non-affective psychosis’ included chizophrenia, paranoid disorders and other non-organic psychoses. Those receiving both affective and non-affective psychotic diagnoses were excluded. Rates per 10,000 live monthly general population births were calculated. For each month, we assessed the agreementŽusing the kappa statistic. between trends in Ža. birth rates and Žb. long-term trends in seasonally adjusted perinatal sunshine duration. The analyses were performed separately for males and females. There were 6265 with non-affective psychosis ŽMs3964 rate 66r10,000; Fs2299 44r10,000. and 2858 with affective psychosisŽMs1392 24r10,000; Fs1466 28r10,000.. There were no significant associations between Ža. affective psychosis birth rates for either males or females and Žb. sunshine duration. There was a significant association between nonaffective psychosis birth rates for males only and Žb. sunshine duration Žkappas0.15 p-0.001.. This suggests that, as a risk factor, the effect of reduced perinatal sunshine is specifically associated with males who develop non-affective psychosis. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Determination of T1pH relaxation rates in charred and uncharred wood and consequences for NMR quantitation

The performance of three different techniques for determining proton rotating frame relaxation rates (T1pH) in charred and uncharred woods is compared. The variable contact time (VCT) experiment is shown to over-estimate T1pH, particularly for the charred samples, due to the presence of slowly cross-polarizing C-13 nuclei. The variable spin (VSL) or delayed contact experiment is shown to overcome these problems; however, care is needed in the analysis to ensure rapidly relaxing components are not overlooked. T1pH is shown to be non-uniform for both charred and uncharred wood samples; a rapidly relaxing component (T1pH = 0.46-1.07 ms) and a slowly relaxing component (T1pH = 3.58-7.49) is detected in each sample. T1pH for each component generally decreases with heating temperature (degree of charring) and the proportion of rapidly relaxing component increases. Direct T1pH determination (via H-1 detection) shows that all samples contain an even faster relaxing component (0.09-0.24 ms) that is virtually undetectable by the indirect (VCT and VSL) techniques. A new method for correcting for T1pH signal losses in spin counting experiments is developed to deal with the rapidly relaxing component detected in the VSL experiment. Implementation of this correction increased the proportion of potential C-13 CPMAS NMR signal that can be accounted for by up to 50% for the charred samples. An even greater proportion of potential signal can be accounted for if the very rapidly relaxing component detected in the direct T1pH determination is included; however, it must be kept in mind that this experiment also detects H-1 pools which may not be involved in H-1-C-13 cross-polarization. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Impact of on-site testing for maternal syphilis on treatment delays, treatment rates, and perinatal mortality in rural South Africa: a randomised controlled trial

Background: Syphilis remains a significant cause of preventable perinatal death in developing countries with many women remaining untested and thus untreated. Syphilis testing in the clinic (on-site testing) may be a useful strategy to overcome this. We studied the impact of on-site syphilis testing on treatment delays and rates, and perinatal mortality. Methods: We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial among seven pairs of primary healthcare clinics in rural South Africa, comparing on-site testing complemented by laboratory confirmation versus laboratory testing alone. Intervention clinics used the on-site test conducted by primary care nurses, with results and treatment available within an hour. Control clinics sent blood samples to the provincial laboratory, with results returned 2 weeks later. Results: Of 7134 women seeking antenatal care with available test results, 793 (11.1%) tested positive for syphilis. Women at intervention clinics completed treatment 16 days sooner on average (95% confidence interval: 11 to 21), though there was no significant difference in the proportion receiving adequate treatment at intervention (64%) and control (69%) clinics. There was also no significant difference in the proportion experiencing perinatal loss (3.3% v 5.1%; adjusted risk difference: -0.9%; 95% Cl -4.4 to 2.7). Conclusions: Despite reducing treatment delays, the addition of on-site syphilis testing to existing laboratory testing services did not lead to higher treatment rates or reduce perinatal mortality. However on-site testing for syphilis may remain an important option for improving antenatal care in settings where laboratory facilities are not available.

Effect of storage of adzuki bean (Vigna angularis) on starch and protein properties

Differential scanning calorimetry was used to evaluate the effect of storage at 10degreesC, 20degreesC and 30degreesC, and 40% and 65% relative humidity (RH) on adzuki bean starch gelatinisation and protein denaturation temperatures. Storage for 6 months at an elevated storage temperature (30degreesC) caused increases in the starch gelatinisation onset temperature (T-o) and gelatinisation peak temperature (T-p) for both Bloodwood and Erimo varieties. Storage at 40% RH resulted in higher T-o and T-p values than storage at 65% RH. The T-o of starch from Bloodwood and Erimo beans stored for up to 1.5 months at 10degreesC and 65% were similar to those of fresh beans. The changes in the salt-soluble protein component were less clear cut than those of the starch. Nonetheless, protein extracted from beans stored at 40% RH exhibited significantly lower T-o and T-p values compared with those stored at 65% RH. This indicates some destabilisation of the protein at the higher RH. These results suggest that detrimental changes occur in starch and, to a lesser extent protein, of adzuki beans stored under unfavourable conditions. On the basis of these results, the best storage conditions to maintain the characteristics of fresh beans are low temperatures (e.g. 10degreesC) and high RH (e.g. 65%). (C) 2003 Swiss Society of Food Science and Technology. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Embracing ligands. A synthetic strategy towards new nitrogen-thioether multidentate ligands and characterization of the cobalt(III) complexes

The synthesis of the hexadentate ligand 2,2,9,9-tetra(methyleneamine)-4,7-dithiadecane (EtN(4)S(2)amp) is reported. The ligand is of a type in which bifurcations of the chain occur at atoms other than donor atoms. The cobalt(III) complex [Co(EtN(4)S(2)amp)](3+) (1) was isolated and characterized. The synthetic methodology also results in a number of by-products, notably 2,9,9-tris(methyleneamine)-9-methylenehydroxy-4,7-dithiadecane (Et(HO)N(3)S(2)amp) and an eleven-membered pendant arm macrocyclic ligand 6,10-dimethyl-6,10-bis(methyleneamine)-1,4-dithia-8-azaacycloundec-7- ene (dmatue). The complexes [Co(Et(HO)N(3)S(2)amp)](3+) (2), in which the alcohol is coordinated to the metal ion, and [Co(dmatue)Cl](2+) (4) were isolated and characterized. Et(HO)N(3)S(2)amp also undergoes complexation with cobalt(III) to produce two isomers endo-[Co(Et(HO) N(3)S(2)amp)Cl](2+) (endo-3) and exo-[Co(Et(HO) N(3)S(2)amp)Cl](2+) (exo-3), both with an uncoordinated alcohol group. endo- 3 has the alcohol positioned cis, and exo-3 trans, to the sixth metal coordination site. Reaction of 1 with isobutyraldehyde, paraformaldehyde and base in dimethylformamide results in the encapsulated complex [Co(1,5,5,9,13,13-hexamethyl-18,21-dithia-3,7,11,15-tetraazabicyclo[7.7.6]docosa- 3,14-diene)](ClO4)(3) . 2H(2)O ([Co(Me(6)docosadieneN(4)S(2))](3+) ( 5). All complexes have been characterized by single crystal X-ray study. The low-temperature (11 K) absorption spectrum of 1 has been measured in Nafion films with spin-allowed (1)A(1g) --> T-1(1g) and (1)A(1g) --> T-1(2g) and spin forbidden (1)A(1g) --> T-3(1g) and (1)A(1g) --> T-3(2g) bands observed. The octahedral ligand-field parameters were determined (10Dq = 22570 cm(-1), B = 551 cm(-1); C = 3500 cm(-1)). For 5 10Dq and B were determined (20580 cm(-1); 516 cm(-1), respectively) and compared with those for similar expanded cavity complexes [Co(Me(8)tricosatrieneN(6))](3+) and [Co(Me(5)tricosatrieneN(6))](3+).

The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.