Assessing the Relevance of Anomie Theory for Explaining Spatial Variation in Lethal Criminal Violence: An Aggregate-Level Analysis of Homicide within the United States

One of the most influential statements in the anomie theory tradition has been Merton’s argument that the volume of instrumental property crime should be higher where there is a greater imbalance between the degree of commitment to monetary success goals and the degree of commitment to legitimate means of pursing such goals. Contemporary anomie theories stimulated by Merton’s perspective, most notably Messner and Rosenfeld’s institutional anomie theory, have expanded the scope conditions by emphasizing lethal criminal violence as an outcome to which anomie theory is highly relevant, and virtually all contemporary empirical studies have focused on applying the perspective to explaining spatial variation in homicide rates. In the present paper, we argue that current explications of Merton’s theory and IAT have not adequately conveyed the relevance of the core features of the anomie perspective to lethal violence. We propose an expanded anomie model in which an unbalanced pecuniary value system – the core causal variable in Merton’s theory and IAT – translates into higher levels of homicide primarily in indirect ways by increasing levels of firearm prevalence, drug market activity, and property crime, and by enhancing the degree to which these factors stimulate lethal outcomes. Using aggregate-level data collected during the mid-to-late 1970s for a sample of relatively large social aggregates within the U.S., we find a significant effect on homicide rates of an interaction term reflecting high levels of commitment to monetary success goals and low levels of commitment to legitimate means. Virtually all of this effect is accounted for by higher levels of property crime and drug market activity that occur in areas with an unbalanced pecuniary value system. Our analysis also reveals that property crime is more apt to lead to homicide under conditions of high levels of structural disadvantage. These and other findings underscore the potential value of elaborating the anomie perspective to explicitly account for lethal violence.

Spatial and temporal patterns of greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: interactions of ecological and social factors affecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index

The causes of a greening trend detected in the Arctic using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are still poorly understood. Changes in NDVI are a result of multiple ecological and social factors that affect tundra net primary productivity. Here we use a 25 year time series of AVHRR-derived NDVI data (AVHRR: advanced very high resolution radiometer), climate analysis, a global geographic information database and ground-based studies to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. We assess the effects of climate change, gas-field development, reindeer grazing and permafrost degradation. In contrast to the case for Arctic North America, there has not been a significant trend in summer temperature or NDVI, and much of the pattern of NDVI in this region is due to disturbances. There has been a 37% change in early-summer coastal sea-ice concentration, a 4% increase in summer land temperatures and a 7% change in the average time-integrated NDVI over the length of the satellite observations. Gas-field infrastructure is not currently extensive enough to affect regional NDVI patterns. The effect of reindeer is difficult to quantitatively assess because of the lack of control areas where reindeer are excluded. Many of the greenest landscapes on the Yamal are associated with landslides and drainage networks that have resulted from ongoing rapid permafrost degradation. A warming climate and enhanced winter snow are likely to exacerbate positive feedbacks between climate and permafrost thawing. We present a diagram that summarizes the social and ecological factors that influence Arctic NDVI. The NDVI should be viewed as a powerful monitoring tool that integrates the cumulative effect of a multitude of factors affecting Arctic land-cover change.

Towards a spatial understanding of trade-offs in sustainable development: A meso-scale analysis of the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment in the Lao PDR

In land systems, equitably managing trade-offs between planetary boundaries and human development needs represents a grand challenge in sustainability oriented initiatives. Informing such initiatives requires knowledge about the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment. This paper presents results from Lao PDR, where we combined nationwide spatial data on land use types and the environmental state of landscapes with village-level poverty indicators. Our analysis reveals two general but contrasting trends. First, landscapes with paddy or permanent agriculture allow a greater number of people to live in less poverty but come at the price of a decrease in natural vegetation cover. Second, people practising extensive swidden agriculture and living in intact environments are often better off than people in degraded paddy or permanent agriculture. As poverty rates within different landscape types vary more than between landscape types, we cannot stipulate a land use–poverty–environment nexus. However, the distinct spatial patterns or configurations of these rates point to other important factors at play. Drawing on ethnicity as a proximate factor for endogenous development potentials and accessibility as a proximate factor for external influences, we further explore these linkages. Ethnicity is strongly related to poverty in all land use types almost independently of accessibility, implying that social distance outweighs geographic or physical distance. In turn, accessibility, almost a precondition for poverty alleviation, is mainly beneficial to ethnic majority groups and people living in paddy or permanent agriculture. These groups are able to translate improved accessibility into poverty alleviation. Our results show that the concurrence of external influences with local—highly contextual—development potentials is key to shaping outcomes of the land use–poverty–environment nexus. By addressing such leverage points, these findings help guide more effective development interventions. At the same time, they point to the need in land change science to better integrate the understanding of place-based land indicators with process-based drivers of land use change.

How should the sustainability of the location of dry ports be measured? A proposed methodology using Bayesian networks and multi-criteria decision analysis

The global economic structure, with its decentralized production and the consequent increase in freight traffic all over the world, creates considerable problems and challenges for the freight transport sector. This situation has led shipping to become the most suitable and cheapest way to transport goods. Thus, ports are configured as nodes with critical importance in the logistics supply chain as a link between two transport systems, sea and land. Increase in activity at seaports is producing three undesirable effects: increasing road congestion, lack of open space in port installations and a significant environmental impact on seaports. These adverse effects can be mitigated by moving part of the activity inland. Implementation of dry ports is a possible solution and would also provide an opportunity to strengthen intermodal solutions as part of an integrated and more sustainable transport chain, acting as a link between road and railway networks. In this sense, implementation of dry ports allows the separation of the links of the transport chain, thus facilitating the shortest possible routes for the lowest capacity and most polluting means of transport. Thus, the decision of where to locate a dry port demands a thorough analysis of the whole logistics supply chain, with the objective of transferring the largest volume of goods possible from road to more energy efficient means of transport, like rail or short-sea shipping, that are less harmful to the environment. However, the decision of where to locate a dry port must also ensure the sustainability of the site. Thus, the main goal of this article is to research the variables influencing the sustainability of dry port location and how this sustainability can be evaluated. With this objective, in this paper we present a methodology for assessing the sustainability of locations by the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Bayesian Networks (BNs). MCDA is used as a way to establish a scoring, whilst BNs were chosen to eliminate arbitrariness in setting the weightings using a technique that allows us to prioritize each variable according to the relationships established in the set of variables. In order to determine the relationships between all the variables involved in the decision, giving us the importance of each factor and variable, we built a K2 BN algorithm. To obtain the scores of each variable, we used a complete cartography analysed by ArcGIS. Recognising that setting the most appropriate location to place a dry port is a geographical multidisciplinary problem, with significant economic, social and environmental implications, we consider 41 variables (grouped into 17 factors) which respond to this need. As a case of study, the sustainability of all of the 10 existing dry ports in Spain has been evaluated. In this set of logistics platforms, we found that the most important variables for achieving sustainability are those related to environmental protection, so the sustainability of the locations requires a great respect for the natural environment and the urban environment in which they are framed.

Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

A spatial pattern analysis of beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposition in the temporal lobe in Alzheimer's disease

To determine the factors influencing the distribution of -amyloid (Abeta) deposits in Alzheimer's disease (AD), the spatial patterns of the diffuse, primitive, and classic A deposits were studied from the superior temporal gyrus (STG) to sector CA4 of the hippocampus in six sporadic cases of the disease. In cortical gyri and in the CA sectors of the hippocampus, the Abeta deposits were distributed either in clusters 200-6400 microm in diameter that were regularly distributed parallel to the tissue boundary or in larger clusters greater than 6400 microm in diameter. In some regions, smaller clusters of Abeta deposits were aggregated into larger 'superclusters'. In many cortical gyri, the density of Abeta deposits was positively correlated with distance below the gyral crest. In the majority of regions, clusters of the diffuse, primitive, and classic deposits were not spatially correlated with each other. In two cases, double immunolabelled to reveal the Abeta deposits and blood vessels, the classic Abeta deposits were clustered around the larger diameter vessels. These results suggest a complex pattern of Abeta deposition in the temporal lobe in sporadic AD. A regular distribution of Abeta deposit clusters may reflect the degeneration of specific cortico-cortical and cortico-hippocampal pathways and the influence of the cerebral blood vessels. Large-scale clustering may reflect the aggregation of deposits in the depths of the sulci and the coalescence of smaller clusters.

EU-ASEAN relations in the post-Cold War era:an analysis of the impact of normative factors on interregionalism

This thesis examines the relationship between the European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with a focus on why their normative elements, e.g. values and norms, affect their ties in the post-Cold War era. Since the end of the Cold War, policy-makers and academics have become interested in region-to-region interaction, termed interregionalism. Though interregionalism is considered to have become an indelible feature of post-Cold War international politics, there are question marks over its importance. It is often argued that interregionalism reinforces the collective identity of the regional organisations involved. It is also maintained that its overall relevance to the international system depends on the level of actorness, which is primarily measured in institutional and material terms, of the participant regional organisations. This thesis contends that the normative components of the EU and ASEAN are also fundamental constituents of their actorness and, consequently, define significantly their interregionalism. This is based on a crucial observation that normative factors are of importance to the regional and international relations of the EU and ASEAN. Yet, while they strongly espouse norms and values to guide their internal and external activities, their normative premises radically differ from each other. Furthermore, these normative differences jeopardise their cooperation. Building on this observation the inquiry takes the normative components of the EU and ASEAN as the criterion as well as the focus for investigating their interregionalism. In doing so, it hypothesises that the EU and ASEAN are two different regional actors that adopt two dissimilar sets of norms to conduct their regional and international affairs and that such normative differences hinder their relations. Within this hypothesis, it seeks to address three central questions. First, what are the normative features that constitute the EU and ASEAN as actors in world politics and that make them different from each other? Second, what are the main sources of their normative differences? Finally, why do their normative differences become an obstructive factor in their relationship? To address these issues, the inquiry adopts a constructivist interpretation (of International Relations) and opts for a narrative and empirical inquiry, which is based on information and data acquired from official documents, scholarly works and interviews and questionnaires. In doing so, it finds that as they were born and evolved in two dissimilar temporal and spatial settings, the EU and ASEAN are two different norm entrepreneurs and normative powers. The former advocates a set of liberal cosmopolitan norms whereas the latter champions a set of traditional communitarian principles. Their normative differences become a major obstacle to their cooperation, especially when one regional organisation’s norms are refused or violated by the other. Thus, a key lesson drawn from these findings is that in order to explain more fully EU-ASEAN interregionalism, it is essential to consider their norms, the reasons behind their normative differences and the implication of those differences to their relations

A spatial pattern analysis of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition in the temporal lobe in Alzheimer's disease

To determine the factors influencing the distribution of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits in Alzheimer's disease (AD), the spatial patterns of the diffuse, primitive, and classic Aβ deposits were studied from the superior temporal gyrus (STG) to sector CA4 of the hippocampus in six sporadic cases of the disease. In cortical gyri and in the CA sectors of the hippocampus, the Aβ deposits were distributed either in clusters 200-6400 μm in diameter that were regularly distributed parallel to the tissue boundary or in larger clusters greater than 6400 μm in diameter. In some regions, smaller clusters of Aβ deposits were aggregated into larger 'superclusters'. In many cortical gyri, the density of Aβ deposits was positively correlated with distance below the gyral crest. In the majority of regions, clusters of the diffuse, primitive, and classic deposits were not spatially correlated with each other. In two cases, double immunolabelled to reveal the Aβ deposits and blood vessels, the classic Aβ deposits were clustered around the larger diameter vessels. These results suggest a complex pattern of Aβ deposition in the temporal lobe in sporadic AD. A regular distribution of Aβ deposit clusters may reflect the degeneration of specific cortico-cortical and cortico-hippocampal pathways and the influence of the cerebral blood vessels. Large-scale clustering may reflect the aggregation of deposits in the depths of the sulci and the coalescence of smaller clusters.

Dynamics of spatial heterogeneity in a landfill with interacting phase densities:a stochastic analysis

A landfill represents a complex and dynamically evolving structure that can be stochastically perturbed by exogenous factors. Both thermodynamic (equilibrium) and time varying (non-steady state) properties of a landfill are affected by spatially heterogenous and nonlinear subprocesses that combine with constraining initial and boundary conditions arising from the associated surroundings. While multiple approaches have been made to model landfill statistics by incorporating spatially dependent parameters on the one hand (data based approach) and continuum dynamical mass-balance equations on the other (equation based modelling), practically no attempt has been made to amalgamate these two approaches while also incorporating inherent stochastically induced fluctuations affecting the process overall. In this article, we will implement a minimalist scheme of modelling the time evolution of a realistic three dimensional landfill through a reaction-diffusion based approach, focusing on the coupled interactions of four key variables - solid mass density, hydrolysed mass density, acetogenic mass density and methanogenic mass density, that themselves are stochastically affected by fluctuations, coupled with diffusive relaxation of the individual densities, in ambient surroundings. Our results indicate that close to the linearly stable limit, the large time steady state properties, arising out of a series of complex coupled interactions between the stochastically driven variables, are scarcely affected by the biochemical growth-decay statistics. Our results clearly show that an equilibrium landfill structure is primarily determined by the solid and hydrolysed mass densities only rendering the other variables as statistically "irrelevant" in this (large time) asymptotic limit. The other major implication of incorporation of stochasticity in the landfill evolution dynamics is in the hugely reduced production times of the plants that are now approximately 20-30 years instead of the previous deterministic model predictions of 50 years and above. The predictions from this stochastic model are in conformity with available experimental observations.

Energy efficiency in the Chinese provinces: a fixed effects stochastic frontier spatial Durbin error panel analysis

Energy efficiency improvement has been a key objective of China’s long-term energy policy. In this paper, we derive single-factor technical energy efficiency (abbreviated as energy efficiency) in China from multi-factor efficiency estimated by means of a translog production function and a stochastic frontier model on the basis of panel data on 29 Chinese provinces over the period 2003–2011. We find that average energy efficiency has been increasing over the research period and that the provinces with the highest energy efficiency are at the east coast and the ones with the lowest in the west, with an intermediate corridor in between. In the analysis of the determinants of energy efficiency by means of a spatial Durbin error model both factors in the own province and in first-order neighboring provinces are considered. Per capita income in the own province has a positive effect. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and population density in the own province and in neighboring provinces have positive effects, whereas the share of state-owned enterprises in Gross Provincial Product in the own province and in neighboring provinces has negative effects. From the analysis it follows that inflow of foreign direct investment and reform of state-owned enterprises are important policy handles.

Multivariate analysis of the effects of soil parameters and environmental factors on the flavonoid content of leaves of Passiflora incarnata L., Passifloraceae

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of soil characteristics (pH, macro- and micro-nutrients), environmental factors (temperature, humidity, period of the year and time of day of collection) and meteorological conditions (rain, sun, cloud and cloud/rain) on the flavonoid content of leaves of Passiflora incarnata L., Passifloraceae. The total flavonoid contents of leaf samples harvested from plants cultivated or collected under different conditions were quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography with ultraviolet detection (HPLC-UV/PAD). Chemometric treatment of the data by principal component (PCA) and hierarchic cluster analyses (HCA) showed that the samples did not present a specific classification in relation to the environmental and soil variables studied, and that the environmental variables were not significant in describing the data set. However, the levels of the elements Fe, B and Cu present in the soil showed an inverse correlation with the total flavonoid contents of the leaves of P. incarnata.

Analysis of the prevalence of and factors associated with urinary incontinence among elderly people in the Municipality of São Paulo, Brazil: SABE Study (Health, Wellbeing and Aging)

To investigate the prevalence of urinary incontinence among elderly people living in São Paulo, Brazil and their associated risk factors. The Pan-American Health Organization and World Health Organization coordinated a multicenter study named Health, Wellbeing and Aging (SABE Study) in elderly people (over 60 years old) living in seven countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Brazil, the study was carried out in São Paulo in the year 2000. The total Brazilian sample included 2,143 people. The prevalence of self reported urinary incontinence was 11.8% among men and 26.2% for women. It was verified that among those reporting urinary incontinence, 37% also reported stroke and 34% depression. It was found that the greater the dependence that the elderly people presented, the greater the prevalence of urinary incontinence. The associated factors found were depression (odds ratio = 2.49), female (2.42), advanced age (2.35), important functional limitation (2.01). Urinary incontinence is a highly prevalent symptom among the elderly population of the municipality of São Paulo, especially among women. The adoption of preventive measures can reduce the negative effects of urinary incontinence.

Spatial clustering analysis of the foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil - 2005

In the southern region of Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil, a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic started in September 2005. A total of 33 outbreaks were detected and 33,741 FMD-susceptible animals were slaughtered and destroyed. There were no reports of FMD cases in other species than bovines. Based on the data of this epidemic, it was carried out an analysis using the K-function and it was observed spatial clustering of outbreaks within a range of 25km. This observation may be related to the dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease spread and to the measures undertaken to control the disease dissemination. The control measures were effective once the disease did not spread to farms more than 47 km apart from the initial outbreaks.

Parametric model for the analysis of concrete expansion due to alkali-aggregate reaction

The alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) is a chemical reaction that provokes a heterogeneous expansion of concrete and reduces important properties such as Young's modulus, leading to a reduction in the structure's useful life. In this study, a parametric model is employed to determine the spatial distribution of the concrete expansion, combining normalized factors that influence the reaction through an AAR expansion law. Optimization techniques were employed to adjust the numerical results and observations in a real structure. A three-dimensional version of the model has been implemented in a finite element commercial package (ANSYS(C)) and verified in the analysis of an accelerated mortar test. Comparisons were made between two AAR mathematical descriptions for the mechanical phenomenon, using the same methodology, and an expansion curve obtained from experiment. Some parametric studies are also presented. The numerical results compared very well with the experimental data validating the proposed method.

A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.