Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Determinants of Portuguese bank’s provisioning policies: Discretionary behaviour of generic and specific allowances

In this paper we test for the impact of the regulatory environment on a bank’s discretionary provisioning practices. We develop a model that structures the dynamics of the provision policy for the two classes of provisions: generic provisions and specific provisions. The model is tested using a comprehensive database of all financial institutions operating in Portugal for 1990-2000. This unique dataset comprises banks subject to the Portuguese rules as well as bank subsidiaries subject to their home-country regulation and we were able to identify distinct behaviours between them. Our results show the importance of handling he two types of provisions separately. They support the hypothesis that banks have a discretionary behaviour in setting up their provisions, and find evidence of income smoothing and capital management. We also find that the regulatory regime impacts on discretionary provisioning policies because banks when forced to increase one type of provision react by reducing the iscretionary component of the other, a finding we designated as a substitution effect.

An analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in counties located along road and railway corridors in the State of Maranhao, Brazil

Introduction The incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is increasing in Latin America, especially in Brazil, where 256,587 cases were confirmed in the last decade. Methods This study used a Bayesian model to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of ACL cases between 2000 and 2009 in 61 counties of State of Maranhão located along the three main road and railway corridors. Results During the study period, 13,818 cases of ACL were recorded. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of ACL in the ten study years. The recorded incidence rate ranged from 7.36 to 241.45 per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risk increased in 77% of the counties, decreased in 18% and was maintained in only five counties. Conclusions Although there was a decreased incidence of the disease, ACL was present in all of the examined municipalities, thus maintaining the risk of contracting this illness.

Spatial distribution of leprosy in areas of risk in Vitoria, State of Espirito Santo, Brazil, 2005 to 2009

Introduction Leprosy remains a relevant public health issue in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of new cases of leprosy and to detect areas with higher risks of disease in the City of Vitória. Methods The study was ecologically based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, State of Espírito Santo between 2005 and 2009. The data sources used came from the available records of the State Health Secretary of Espírito Santo. A global and local empirical Bayesian method was used in the spatial analysis to produce a leprosy risk estimation, and the fluctuation effect was smoothed from the detection coefficients. Results The study used thematic maps to illustrate that leprosy is distributed heterogeneously between the neighborhoods and that it is possible to identify areas with high risk of disease. The Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.926 (p = 0.001) for the Local Method indicated highly correlated coefficients. The Moran index was calculated to evaluate correlations between the incidences of adjoining districts. Conclusions We identified the spatial contexts in which there were the highest incidence rates of leprosy in Vitória during the studied period. The results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, which can help establish more cost-effective control strategies because they indicate specific regions and priority planning activities that can interfere with the transmission chain.

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Introduction In 1999, Birigui and Araçatuba were the first municipalities in the State of São Paulo to present autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis in humans (VLH). The aim of this study was to describe the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal behaviors of VLH in Birigui. Methods Secondary data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 1999 to 2012. The incidence, mortality and case fatality rates by sex and age were calculated. The cases of VLH were geocoded and grouped according to census tracts. Local empirical Bayesian incidence rates were calculated. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters was investigated using SaTScan software. Results There were 156 confirmed cases of autochthonous VLH. The incidence rate was higher in the 0-4-year-old children, and the mortality and case fatality rates were higher in people aged 60 years and older. The peaks of incidence occurred in 2006 and 2011. The Bayesian rates identified the presence of VLH in all of the census tracts in the municipality; however, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were found in the central area of the municipality. Conclusions Birigui, located in the Araçatuba region, has recently experienced increasing numbers of VLH cases; this increase is contrary to the behavior observed over the entire region, which has shown a decreasing trend in the number of VLH cases. The observations that the highest incidence is in children 0-4 years old and the highest mortality is in people 60 years and older are in agreement with the expected patterns of VLH.

Universal banks and corporate control: Evidence from the global syndicated loan market

We investigate the effects of bank control over borrower firms whether by representation on boards of directors or by the holding of shares through bank asset management divisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans, we find that banks are more likely to act as lead arrangers in loans when they exert some control over the borrower firm. Bank-firm governance links are associated with higher loan spreads during the 2003-2006 credit boom, but lower spreads during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Additionally, these links mitigate credit rationing effects during the crisis. The results are robust to several methods to correct for the endogeneity of the bank- firm governance link. Our evidence, consistent with intertemporal smoothing of loan rates, suggests there are costs and benefits from banks’ involvement in firm governance.

Spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Adamantina, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION : Several municipalities of the Western region of the State of São Paulo have been affected by human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL), including the City of Adamantina, where the first autochthonous cases occurred in 2004. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of HVL in Adamantina. METHODS : Secondary data regarding the occurrence of HVL in Adamantina between 2004 and 2011 were used. Incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates were calculated. We used local empirical Bayesian incidence rates to represent the occurrence of the disease in the census sector of the city. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of cases was evaluated using scan statistics. In situ observation was performed to assess the socioeconomic and environmental characteristics of the areas with medium and high incidences. RESULTS : Adamantina reported cases in 70% of its census sectors. No differences were observed between sexes. The group aged 0-4 years presented the highest incidence and mortality rates, and the group aged 40-59 years presented the highest fatality rate. We detected a spatiotemporal cluster, which coincided with the commencement of the endemic in the city. CONCLUSIONS : The individuals most affected by the disease were children. The disease was present in areas with better and worse socioeconomic conditions. The use of spatial analysis techniques was important to achieve the study objectives.

Implementation of a probabilistic based framework for safety assessment of existing timber elements

The assessment of existing timber structures is often limited to information obtained from non or semi destructive testing, as mechanical testing is in many cases not possible due to its destructive nature. Therefore, the available data provides only an indirect measurement of the reference mechanical properties of timber elements, often obtained through empirical based correlations. Moreover, the data must result from the combination of different tests, as to provide a reliable source of information for a structural analysis. Even if general guidelines are available for each typology of testing, there is still a need for a global methodology allowing to combine information from different sources and infer upon that information in a decision process. In this scope, the present work presents the implementation of a probabilistic based framework for safety assessment of existing timber elements. This methodology combines information gathered in different scales and follows a probabilistic framework allowing for the structural assessment of existing timber elements with possibility of inference and updating of its mechanical properties, through Bayesian methods. The probabilistic based framework is based in four main steps: (i) scale of information; (ii) measurement data; (iii) probability assignment; and (iv) structural analysis. In this work, the proposed methodology is implemented in a case study. Data was obtained through a multi-scale experimental campaign made to old chestnut timber beams accounting correlations of non and semi-destructive tests with mechanical properties. Finally, different inference scenarios are discussed aiming at the characterization of the safety level of the elements.

Otimização com restrições de complementaridade: algoritmos e aplicações

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas (PDEIS)

Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

An innovative framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment with an application to existing reinforced concrete structures

A novel framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment of existing structures, which combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures, considering in an objective way different sources of uncertainty, is presented in this paper. A short description of structural assessment applications, provided in literature, is initially given. Then, the developed model identification procedure, supported in a robust optimization algorithm, is presented. Special attention is given to both experimental and numerical errors, to be considered in this algorithm convergence criterion. An updated numerical model is obtained from this process. The reliability assessment procedure, which considers a probabilistic model for the structure in analysis, is then introduced, incorporating the results of the model identification procedure. The developed model is then updated, as new data is acquired, through a Bayesian inference algorithm, explicitly addressing statistical uncertainty. Finally, the developed framework is validated with a set of reinforced concrete beams, which were loaded up to failure in laboratory.

Population genetic structure of brown crab (Cancer pagurus) in Irish waters

The brown crab (Cancer pagurus) fishery in Ireland is one of the most important financially and socio-economically, with the species worth approximately €15m per year in the first half of the decade. Only mackerel (Scomber scombrus) and Dublin Bay prawn (Nephrops norvegicus) are of greater value. Despite this, very little research has been conducted to describe the stock structure of brown crab on a national scale. In this study a country-wide assessment of genetic population structure was carried out. Sampling was conducted from commercial fishing boats from 11/06 to 04/08 at seven sample sites representing the central Irish brown crab fisheries, with one sample site from the UK also included in the study. Six microsatellite markers, specifically developed for brown crab, were used to assess genetic diversity and estimate population differentiation parameters. Significant genetic structuring was found using F-statistics (Fst = 0.007) and exact tests, but not with Bayesian methods. Samples from the UK and Wexford were found to be genetically distinct from all other populations. Three northern populations from Malm Head and Stanton Bank were genetically similar with Fst estimates suggesting connectivity between them. Also, Stanton Bank, again on the basis of Fst estimates, appeared to be connected to populations down the west coast of Ireland, as far south as Kerry. Two Galway samples, one inside and one outside of Galway Bay, were genetically differentiated despite their close geographic proximity. It is hypothesised that a persistent northerly summer current could transport pelagic larvae from populations along the southwest and west coasts of Ireland towards Stanton Bank in the North, resulting in the apparent connectivity observed in this study.

Phylogeny of Thylamys (Didelphimorphia, Didelphidae) species, with special reference to Thylamys karimii

The genus Thylamys Gray, 1843 lives in the central and southern portions of South America inhabiting open and shrub-like vegetation, from prairies to dry forest habitats in contrast to the preference of other Didelphidae genera for more mesic environments. Thylamys is a speciose genus including T. elegans (Waterhouse, 1839), T. macrurus (Olfers, 1818), T. pallidior (Thomas, 1902), T. pusillus (Desmarest, 1804), T. venustus (Thomas, 1902), T. sponsorius (Thomas, 1921), T. cinderella (Thomas, 1902), T. tatei (Handley, 1957), T. karimii (Petter, 1968), and T. velutinus (Wagner, 1842) species. Previous phylogenetic analyses in this genus did not include the Brazilian species T. karimii, which is widely distributed in this country. In this study, phylogenetic analyses were performed to establish the relationships among the Brazilian T. karimii and all other previously analyzed species. We used 402-bp fragments of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene, and the phylogeny estimates were conducted employing maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML), Bayesian (BY), and neighbor-joining (NJ). The topologies of the trees obtained in the different analyses were all similar and pointed out that T. karimii is the sister taxon of a group constituted of taxa from dry and arid environments named the dryland species. The dryland species consists of T. pusillus, T. pallidior, T. tatei, and T. elegans. The results of this work suggest five species groups in Thylamys. In one of them, T. velutinus and T. kariimi could constitute a sister group forming one Thylamys clade that colonized Brazil.

An ecological and comparative analysis of parasites in juvenile Mugil liza (Pisces, Mugilidae) from two sites in Samborombón bay, Argentina

ABSTRACT Mugil liza Valenciennes, 1836 is an economically important food fish and has been recommended for aquaculture in South America. A total of 278 fishes were collected in the spring and summer of 2009 and 2010. These fish were sorted into sample groups according to their size class. We used Bayesian statistics and 95% credible intervals for each parameter tested were calculated. Fish studied harbored a total of 15 different species of parasites. Diversity of parasite species found on Mugil liza was greatest at the S.R.C. collection site, but evidenced a lower species richness than at A.R. site. The 1st size fishes of both sites evidenced greater parasite diversity than either 2nd or 3rd size fish. Differences observed could be explained by the different use of habitat types at the two sites or differential susceptibility to infection by parasites. The dominance of D. fastigatainfluenced observed results of lower community diversity indexes. New works elucidating different parasite life cycles within juvenile and adults ofM. liza in Argentina, promise to be important for determining the risk of the parasitism by zoonotic metacercariae A. (P.) longa and use of this fish as food and an economic resource, and the possible use of mullet parasites in other promising fields as indicators of biodiversity, and/ or water contamination.

Estudos sobre thrombose cardiaca e endocardite parietal de origem não valvular

1.-Since the parietal endocarditis represents a chapter generally neglected, owing to the relative lack of cases, and somewhat confused because there various terms have been applied to a very same morbid condition, it justifies the work which previously we tried to accomplish, of nosographic classification. Taking into account the functional disturbances and the anatomical changes, all cases of parietal endocarditis referred to in the litterature were distributed by the following groups: A-Group-Valvulo-parietal endocarditis. 1st . type-Valvulo-parietal endocarditis per continuum. 2nd. type-Metastatic valvulo-parietal endocarditis. 3rd. type-Valvulo-parietal endocarditis of the mitral stenosis. B-Group-Genuine parietal endocarditis. a) with primary lesions in the myocardium. b) with primary lesions in the endocardium. 4th type-Fibrous chronic parietal endocarditis (B A Ü M L E R), « endocarditis parietalis simplex». 5th type-Septic acute parietal endocarditis (LESCHKE), «endocarditis parietalis septica». 6th type-Subacute parietal endocarditis (MAGARINOS TORRES), «endocarditis muralis lenta». 2.-Studying a group of 14 cases of fibrous endomyocarditis with formation of thrombi, and carrying together pathological and bacteriological examinations it has been found that some of such cases represent an infectious parietal endocarditis, sometimes post-puerperal, of subacute or slow course, the endocardic vegetations being contamined by pathogenic microörganisms of which the most frequent is the Diplococcus pneumoniae, in most cases of attenuated virulence. Along with the infectious parietal endocarditis, there occur arterial and venous thromboses (abdominal aorta, common illiac and femural arteries and external jugular veins). The case 5,120 is a typical one of this condition which we name subacute parietal endocarditis (endocarditis parietalis s. muralis lenta). 3.-The endocarditis muralis lenta encloses an affection reputed to be of rare occurrence, the «myocardite subaigüe primitive», of which JOSSERAND and GALLAVARDIN published in 1901 the first cases, and ROQUE and LEVY, another, in 1914. The «myocardite subaigüe primitive» was, wrongly, in our opinion, included by WALZER in the syndrome of myocardia of LAUBRY and WALZER, considering that, in the refered cases of JOSSERAND and GALLAVARDIN and in that of ROQUE and LEVY, there are described rather considerable inflammatory changes in the myocardium and endocardium. The designation «myocardia» was however especially created by LAUBRY and WALZER for the cases of heart failure in which the most careful aetiologic inquiries and the most minucious clinical examination were unable to explain, and in which, yet, the post-mortem examination did not reveal any anatomical change at all, it being forcible to admit, then, a primary functional change of the cardiac muscle fibre. This special cardiac condition is thoroughly exemplified in the observation that WALZER reproduces on pages 1 to 7 of his book. 4.-The clinical picture of the subacute parietal endocarditis is that of heart failure with oedemas, effusion in the serous cavities and passive chronic congestion of the lungs, liver, kideys and spleen associated, to that of an infectious disease of subacute course. The fever is rather transient oscillating around 99.5 F., being intersected with apyretic periods of irregular duration; it is not dependent on any evident extracardiac septic infection. In other cases the fever is slight, particularly in the final stage of the disease, when the heart failure is well established. The rule is to observe then, hypothermy. The cardiac-vascular signs consist of enlargement of the cardiac dullness, smoothing of the cardiac sounds, absence of organic murmurs and accentuated and persistent tachycardia up to a certain point independent of fever. The galloprhythm is present, in most cases. The signs of the pulmonary infarct are rather expressed by the aspect of the sputum, which is foamy and blood-streaked than by the classic signs. Cerebral embolism was a terminal accident on various cases. Yet, in some of them, along with the signs of septicemia and of cardiac insufficiency, occurred vascular, arterial (abdominal aorta, common illiac and femurals arteries) and venous (extern jugular veins) thromboses. 5. The autopsy revealed an inflammatory process located on the parietal endocardium, accompanied by abundant formation of ancient and recent thrombi, being the apex of the left ventricle, the junction of the anterior wall of the same ventricle, with the interventricular septum, and the right auricular appendage, the usual seats of the inflammatory changes. The region of the left branch of HIS’ bundle is spared. The other changes found consist of fibrosis of the myocardium (healed infarcts and circumscribed interstitial myocarditis), of recent visceral infarcts chiefly in lungs, spleen and brain, of recent or old infarcts in the kidneys (embolic nephrocirrhosis) and in the spleen, and of vascular thromboses (abdominal aorta, common illiacs and femurals arteries and external jugular veins), aside from hydrothorax, hydroperitoneum, cutaneous oedema, chronic passive congestion of the liver, lungs, spleen and kidneys and slight ictericia. 6. In the subacute parietal endocarditis the primary lesions sometimes locate themselves at the myocardium, depending on the ischemic necrosis associated to the arteriosclerosis of the coronariae arteries, or on an specific myocarditis. Other times, the absence of these conditions is suggestive of a primary attack to the parietal endocardium which is then the primary seat of the lesions. It matters little whatever may be the initial pathogenic mechanism; once injured the parietal endocardium and there being settled the infectious injury, the endocarditis develops with peculiar clinical and anatomical characters of remarkable uniformity, constituting an anatomo-clinical syndrome. 7.-The histologic sections show that recent lesions…